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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-UNF: Nelson +1
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Author Topic: FL-UNF: Nelson +1  (Read 1299 times)
Dereich
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« on: October 24, 2017, 12:04:25 pm »

Bill Nelson: 37
Rick Scott:  36
Other: 7
Don't know: 20

Poll taken Oct. 11, through Tuesday, Oct. 17, with 838 completed surveys from Florida registered voters. In February, the same group had Nelson 44/Scott 38.

http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/wjct/files/201710/ScottTrumpSurveyResults.docx_.pdf

Approval ratings:
Trump: 37/59
Rubio: 42/37
Nelson: 35/15
Scott: 59/28 (was 46/40 in February, so clearly a big hurricane bump)

Also polled: confederate statutes, legal immigration support, government influence in healthcare.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2017, 12:05:29 pm »
« Edited: October 24, 2017, 12:09:57 pm by Not_Madigan »

that Trump approval oof

Anyway it's still Tossup imo.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2017, 12:07:51 pm »

Pretty good news for Nelson if The Criminal can't even lead with that giant post Hurricane approval bump. That said, given Florida elected The Criminal twice, I won't put it past them to elect him a third time.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2017, 12:13:17 pm »

If there's a big D wave like most people predict, I can see this turning out like MO-SEN 2016: A boring, old, supposedly unbeatable Establishment Democrat who is a remnant from the past and the 80s/90s Establishment faces a surprisingly strong challenge but nonetheless wins by 3 or so in the end because of the national environment. If it's a more neutral year and Republicans are beating expectations, I could definitely see Scott winning, though.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2017, 01:58:45 pm »

Ya, way better poll for Nelson than the top line suggests, as has been stated before. If Scott is down 1 immediately after a hurricane bump then it's hard to imagine him winning in a bad environment.

Back to Lean D from Tilt imo
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ajc0918
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2017, 02:09:58 pm »

Scott the Senior Killer continues to be dragged down by Trump.
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henster
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2017, 03:12:54 pm »

It is hard to be make a big impression on voters in such a transient state. Since Nelson was last on the ballot, FL has probably gained a million new voters.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2017, 03:25:10 pm »

I mean, if there's anyone that can take out Nelson, it IS Scott. He seems to have become more popular in his second term.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2017, 12:58:11 pm »

Amazing poll for Scott. Anyone saying otherwise is kiddjng themselves. This is a man who turned a negative approval rating to a massively positive one and keeps the race close with trump approval in the tank (I doubt it's that low here). Nelson has always won thanks to north Florida; attacking trump will destroy him in NF.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2017, 01:55:00 pm »

Amazing poll for Scott. Anyone saying otherwise is kiddjng themselves. This is a man who turned a negative approval rating to a massively positive one and keeps the race close with trump approval in the tank (I doubt it's that low here). Nelson has always won thanks to north Florida; attacking trump will destroy him in NF.

Nelson could've gotten destroyed in North Florida in 2006/2012 and still thrashed Katherine Harris/Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV.
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The Saint
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2017, 02:02:03 pm »

The reason the poll is bad (as in, not able to determine an accurate picture of the race) is that there are 20% undecided.  This is like taking the poll with Cruz and O'Rourke tied at 30% as "serious evidence" that O'Rourke could win.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2017, 02:03:54 pm »

The reason the poll is bad (as in, not able to determine an accurate picture of the race) is that there are 20% undecided.  This is like taking the poll with Cruz and O'Rourke tied at 30% as "serious evidence" that O'Rourke could win.

Agreed
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DTC
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2017, 04:30:03 pm »

Wow Trump is super underwater here lol. Down from 41-57 favorable in 2016 to 37-59 approval. Granted, one's favorable and one is approval, but they tend to be pretty closely aligned.
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