MO-Remington: Hawley +3

[MT Treasurer]

Terrible state. Seriously though, this is obviously not a particularly good poll for Republicans, but if an incumbent with a lot of name recognition who won her last race in a landslide is trailing by 3 points at this point in time (especially when the president is incredibly unpopular), I wouldn't really call that good news for Ds either. If it's still a 3-point race in September/October 2018, then I'll be very worried. Same story in Indiana.

That said, the GOP needs to take every race seriously, and if they're struggling to win here, 2018 will be a D wave for sure.

[Rjjr77]

I think folks are looking too close at the Margin (Hawley up 3) and not enough at the big elephant in the room, this far out Claire McCaskill is at 45% thats not a good place to be, she wont get every single undecided voter breaking for her unless Hawley messes up and hes way too polished to do that.

[Jeppe]

At the same time, Remington is a Republican poller. The same Remington that said Trump's approval rating was -1 nationwide month ago. If Hawley can't get more than +3 in what is basically an internal poll, that doesn't bode well for him.

[Person Man]

At the same time, Remington is a Republican poller. The same Remington that said Trump's approval rating was -1 nationwide month ago. If Hawley can't get more than +3 in what is basically an internal poll, that doesn't bode well for him.

Let's just put it this way-
This poll is accurate if there is some sort of "Bradley Effect" prevailing where Democrats only do about as published R internals so they will do. This is how it was in 2002 and 2004, where many undecideds were wanting to be scared to vote for  Democrats. Anecdotally, I heard of undecideds or those who were leaning Kerry getting into the voting booth and then pulling the lever for Bush out of last minute fear or "a voice and a sudden inner peace" compelling them to do so.

[IceSpear]

At the same time, Remington is a Republican poller. The same Remington that said Trump's approval rating was -1 nationwide month ago. If Hawley can't get more than +3 in what is basically an internal poll, that doesn't bode well for him.

So they had Trump at -1 nationally and +1 in MO? Perfect sense.

[Rjjr77]

At the same time, Remington is a Republican poller. The same Remington that said Trump's approval rating was -1 nationwide month ago. If Hawley can't get more than +3 in what is basically an internal poll, that doesn't bode well for him.

yeah theres a big difference between a republican pollster and an internal poll. As much as Im not a Jeff Roe fan, remington knows Missouri pretty well.

[Xing]

I could definitely see this being WI-SEN 2016, except with the parties reversed. That said, Missouri has trended far to the right, and McCaskill will definitely need some wind at her back to win. Still Lean R, but if Republicans take this seat for granted, good chance they'll regret it.

[Skill and Chance]

Trailing within the MOE is a lot better than I thought McCaskill would be doing right now.  If she's losing by only 2-4, then the Trump Dem losses should be limited to her and maybe Donnelly.

[Gustaf]

^ OT, but in that pic, Hawley looks vaguely like Dennis Reynolds from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Think about it. She’s out in the middle of Missouri with some candidate she barely knows. She looks around her, what does she see? Nothing but conservative Republicans. “Oh, there’s nowhere for me to run, what am I gonna do, run as a liberal?”

A+

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think folks are looking too close at the Margin (Hawley up 3) and not enough at the big elephant in the room, this far out Claire McCaskill is at 45% thats not a good place to be, she wont get every single undecided voter breaking for her unless Hawley messes up and hes way too polished to do that.

I think Hawley is probably over-hyped and untested candidate who will be beaten like a piñata with the "opportunist"/"using us as a steppingstone" line, which I suspect will be particularly effective against him.  It is also important to remember that this is a Republican firm.  That said, McCaskill is a much weaker incumbent than someone like Tester, Brown, Manchin, or Heitkamp.  I think McCaskill would've lost by 6-8% in 2012 had Brunner been the Republican nominee.  Unlike Donnelly, McCaskill also has a tendency to stick her foot in her mouth.  Right now, I have this as toss-up tilt R, but I could also see McCaskill narrowly winning b/c of 1) the possibility of a Democratic tidal wave and 2) there is a real possibility of Hawley turning out to be this cycle's Patrick Murphy.

[Person Man]

^ OT, but in that pic, Hawley looks vaguely like Dennis Reynolds from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Think about it. She’s out in the middle of Missouri with some candidate she barely knows. She looks around her, what does she see? Nothing but conservative Republicans. “Oh, there’s nowhere for me to run, what am I gonna do, run as a liberal?”

A+

100!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McCaskill and Donnelly are still salvageable, they are not hopeless, it's just advantage R for now.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCaskill and Donnelly are still salvageable, they are not hopeless, it's just advantage R for now.

Donnelly is salvageable, but McCaskill is the Mary Landrieu of this cycle. She'll look competitive for a long while, but by election day the race won't be all that close.

[The Other Castro]

McCaskill and Donnelly are still salvageable, they are not hopeless, it's just advantage R for now.

Donnelly is salvageable, but McCaskill is the Mary Landrieu of this cycle. She'll look competitive for a long while, but by election day the race won't be all that close.

How's Senator Strange doing these days? Seems to me that maybe you shouldn't make such definitive claims about races you don't know much about unless you are in fact omniscient, which the record shows you are not.

[AtorBoltox]

Lean D

[Mr. Smith]

So, a Reverse Kander v. Blunt situation?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

McCaskill and Donnelly are still salvageable beatable, they are not hopeless invincible, it's just advantage R D for now.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

^ OT, but in that pic, Hawley looks vaguely like Dennis Reynolds from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Think about it. She’s out in the middle of Missouri with some candidate she barely knows. She looks around her, what does she see? Nothing but conservative Republicans. “Oh, there’s nowhere for me to run, what am I gonna do, run as a liberal?”

This is the best post I've read on this site

[tallguy23]

Can someone tell me why Hawley is considered attractive? Like I get he's not like an 80 year old man, but that doesn't automatically make him attractive.

He's attractive compared to the typical politician. He's no hunky movie star though.