Canada's Electoral College

[catographer]

I saw a thread about a hypothetical electoral college of Brazil, calculated like the U.S. one. I decided to do this with Canada. The results show that it would be a terrible idea for Canada, resulting in often terribly unrepresentative elections punctured by occasionally fair ones. Let's have a look:

I calculated electoral votes by adding senators + MPs for each province and territory. I'll break down the electoral votes of provinces in the 2015 election to demonstrate:
Alberta: 40
British Columbia: 48
Manitoba: 20
New Brunswick: 20
Newfoundland & Labrador: 13
Northwest Territories: 2
Nova Scotia: 21
Nunavut: 2
Ontario: 145
Prince Edward Island: 8
Quebec: 102
Saskatchewan: 20
Yukon: 2

There are 443 electoral votes in total (338 MPs + 105 senators). A majority needed to win is 222 EVs. As you can see, the two provinces that make up 56% of the electoral college are Ontario and Quebec (247 EVs); their populations make up over 60% of the population. Therefore a party only has to win these two provinces to win the EC. Often as you'll see in the results for past elections, the winner wins only one of these (typically Ontario).

I looked at results by the popular vote for each party in the provinces and territories. A party won a province's electoral votes if they won a plurality or more of the popular vote (ignoring seat totals).

2015 federal election
Liberal: 383
Conservative: 60
NDP: 0
Bloc Québecois: 0

Trudeau won all provinces except Alberta and Saskatchewan. Consequently, he won a massive electoral college landslide, taking 86% of the electoral vote. Meanwhile, his party won 39.5% of the national popular vote, or a 7.6% margin of victory over second place (Harper).

2011 was a similarly massive landslide for the Conservatives, with Harper winning all provinces except for Québec, NT, and Newfoundland. The House of Commons was 30 seats smaller in 2011, so the electoral votes were slightly different (only 207 was needed for a majority). These are the electoral votes for elections from 2011 to 2004. Harper won the popular vote by 9 pts, with 39.6% of the national popular vote.

Alberta: 34
British Columbia: 42
Manitoba: 20
New Brunswick: 20
Newfoundland & Labrador: 13
Northwest Territories: 2
Nova Scotia: 21
Nunavut: 2
Ontario: 130
Prince Edward Island: 8
Quebec: 99
Saskatchewan: 20
Yukon: 2

2011 federal election
Liberal: 13
Conservative: 299
NDP: 101
Bloc Québecois: 0

Canada had two very close elections in 2006 and 2004. The electoral results for these elections are very interesting; they prove the strength of Ontario and Quebec, and the follies of a winner-take-all electoral college system.

In 2006, Harper won a minority government for the Conservatives, with a relatively small 6% margin of victory in the popular vote and 21-seat margin over the Liberals. However, he lost the electoral college. This was because the Liberals won a very narrow plurality of the vote in Ontario, giving them all 130 EVs and resulting in an unside-down PV and EV discrepancy. The Boc Québecois had a sizable 99 EVs, and had Harper won Québec's 99 EVs he would've won the EC. But BQ is a regional party, and therefore their EVs are severely disproportionate to their national PV (BQ won 10% of the PV, but 24% of the EC).

2006 federal election
Liberal: 196
Conservative: 116
NDP: 2
Bloc Québecois: 99

Paul Martin's Liberals won only a plurality of the EC, short of the 207 needed for a majority. Therefore, 2006 would've been decided by a vote in the House of Commons (like how the House of Reps would in the US), with each province getting 1 vote each. Oddly enough, out of 13 provinces and territories, Martin won 7, and therefore would've won a vote in the HoC as well as the EC, even though Harper's Conservatives won a plurality of seats and votes. This goes to show how unrepresentative an electoral college is.
Both the 2004 and 1997 elections as well would have resulted in no electoral college majority, with the Liberals winning pluralities in each. This is due to the strength of regional parties (BQ, and agrarian-populist Reform Party).

The other time the winner of the EC also lost the popular vote and fewer seats in Parliament would have been 1988. John Turner's Liberals narrowly won Ontario's popular vote, and therefore a plurality of the EC, even while losing the national popular vote by 11 pts and Brian Mulroney's Conservatives winning a majority of seats in Parliament.