Manchin/McCaskill vs Pence/Haley

[tomhguy]

Irrelevant

[Lechasseur]

I only have a phone so I can't post a map (next time I get on a computer I'll try to post a map), but I think Manchin and McCaskill would win in a landslide, Manchin would keep all the Blue Dog Democrats (he'd probably be the first Democrat since at least Bill Clinton to do that) and he'd attract a lot of moderate Republicans for whom Pence would be to extreme, and the progressives in the Democratic Party would to a large degree stay in line and vote Manchin to keep Pence out of the White House (although of course many would sit the election out). This is what I think:

Joe Manchin: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, New Mexico, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, California, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Hawaii+Nebraska-02+Washington DC

Mike Pence: Indiana, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

Joe Manchin/Claire McCaskill: 418 EVs
Mike Pence/Nikki Haley: 120 EVs

[tomhguy]

Why do you think it will be a landslide?

[Lechasseur]

Why do you think it will be a landslide?

Manchin is a moderate-to-conservative Democrat while Pence is really right wing, I don't think Pence could win against a real moderate.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

[The Govanah Jake]

I fail to see how West Virginia can be won by any Democrat in the 2012-2020 range unless there is a landslide. A manchin type figure would very much narrow the state but winning it? Manchin would have a much better chance at North Carolina and Georgia before his home state

[OBD]

Wait, why would Utah be a landslide? Is there something I'm missing here?

[AtorBoltox]

Easy Pence win due to catastrophic decline in turnout among Democrat base

[Keep cool-idge]

Easy Pence win due to catastrophic decline in turnout among Democrat base

Manchin makes up for it by winning tons of Bill Clinton republicans and bob Casey democrats who now vote republican.

[The Govanah Jake]

Wait, why would Utah be a landslide? Is there something I'm missing here?

I'm guessing because Pence wouldn't have been so unpopular with mormons so McMullin does not run and so Pence returns to Bush level margins in the state

[Lechasseur]

Easy Pence win due to catastrophic decline in turnout among Democrat base

Manchin makes up for it by winning tons of Bill Clinton republicans and bob Casey democrats who now vote republican.

This! That's the point I was making, but you formulated it better. As a result Manchin wins easily.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Joe Manchin // Claire McCaskill - 323 votes
Michael Pence // Nikki Haley - 2015 votes