Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 15, 2018, 09:53:57 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  Victorian State Election, 2018
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Poll
Question: Poll
Labor   -11 (40.7%)
Liberal   -6 (22.2%)
National   -4 (14.8%)
Greens   -6 (22.2%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 27

Author Topic: Victorian State Election, 2018  (Read 1274 times)
PSOL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 939


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 14, 2018, 09:08:44 pm »

Does the Victorian Socialists stand a chance of doing well other than in the North Metropolitan district. Not in the way of winning, but as an upset or a third competitor.
No chance. The preferences all flow against them. It is impossible for them to win.
Also, you seem to forget that in North Metro there are 5 seats up, not one.
I meant in overall momentum in Victoria. It seems like they have a strong chance in one seat in the North Metro, what about the other seats in other districts in the state?

And why is the party possibly going to win in the last N. Metro seat?
Logged


“We are not an Islamic party, and we also refuse labels such as Muslim-democrat”.-Recep Tayyip Erdoğan(2005) describing the ideology of the AKP as one of “conservative democracy”.
AustralianSwingVoter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,468
Australia


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 14, 2018, 10:27:41 pm »

Does the Victorian Socialists stand a chance of doing well other than in the North Metropolitan district. Not in the way of winning, but as an upset or a third competitor.
No chance. The preferences all flow against them. It is impossible for them to win.
Also, you seem to forget that in North Metro there are 5 seats up, not one.
I meant in overall momentum in Victoria. It seems like they have a strong chance in one seat in the North Metro, what about the other seats in other districts in the state?

And why is the party possibly going to win in the last N. Metro seat?

Let me repeat myself, they have no chance whatsoever in N. Metro.
Victoria still uses Group Voting Ticket. That means you just vote 1 for a party and they decide what to do with your preferences. Only the Greens are preferencing the Socialists, and they won't be relevant (too high vote to be eliminated early.)

Preference whisperers have decided who will get the 5th seat, and the have settled on Derryn Hinch's Justice Party. They only need about 0.15% first preferences, and transfers will do the rest.

And yes, the system isn't remotely fair allowing a party winning less than half a percent of the vote to get a seat.
Logged

...Nazi Fascist Hitler gun control platform...
Define Assault weapon as guns that shoot flaming chainsaws wrapped in barbed wire.
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines