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Author Topic: German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 5569 times)
Cassius
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« Reply #75 on: December 07, 2018, 06:35:20 pm »

If the CDU manage to remain in power for a further four years after 2021 at the helm of yet another coalition they will essentially be DC Deutschland sans the correntes and the corruption.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #76 on: December 07, 2018, 07:00:42 pm »

  I think the healthiest long term development might be for the CSU and more rightwing elements of the CDU to merge, to create a truly center right political formation.
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ag
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« Reply #77 on: December 07, 2018, 08:47:17 pm »

CDU is still in what political scientists would describe as the core of German politics. It is very hard to think of the national government that excludes CDU without taking in mutually incompatible parties. Even if CSU bolts CSU/AfD would not have sufficient strength to govern on their own - and whom are they going to ally with? FDP? But that would be the end of FDP. Likewise, Linke/SPD/Greens would not likely form a viable coalition - especially as even a rumor of that would drive a chunk of the SPD/Green vote towards CDU. So, while CDU might not do brilliantly in the next election, AKK has very good chances of being the chancellor. And that is good.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #78 on: December 08, 2018, 03:52:37 am »

 I think the healthiest long term development might be for the CSU and more rightwing elements of the CDU to merge, to create a truly center right political formation.

Agreed, hopefully that will happen as soon as possible. The CDU clearly can't be saved.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #79 on: December 08, 2018, 03:56:21 am »

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

Agreed
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #80 on: December 08, 2018, 07:46:53 am »

In terms of the "normalization" of Germany's party system, I see no reason to dismiss Merkel's relevance in the rise of the AfD - which should be regarded as her most important legacy. Merkel has created a party completely devoid of any sort of coherent ideology and of course committed a cardinal error in August of 2015. That has played a huge role in the rise of the AfD. Of course her supporters are now rewriting the CDU's history in a 1984-like manner, claiming that the CDU has always been a party of the center and not a conservative party at all (that's the sound of Adenauer spinning in his grave you are hearing). It wouldn't have required a right-wing CDU leader to prevent the rise of the AfD, just someone with any sort of discernible center-right ideological preferences. It's quite telling that some of the most glowing tributes to Merkel's time in office have come from the left.

And AKK subscribes to the interpretation of the CDU as a party that essentially does anything to stay in power as well.

True. Just not letting in 1.5 million illegals would have been enough to prevent the rise of the AfD. They were polling at 3% in the summer of 2015 and would've followed the Pirate Party's path to irrelevancy.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #81 on: December 08, 2018, 08:35:49 am »

Wednesday 6th March 2019
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #82 on: December 08, 2018, 08:49:14 am »

In terms of the "normalization" of Germany's party system, I see no reason to dismiss Merkel's relevance in the rise of the AfD - which should be regarded as her most important legacy. Merkel has created a party completely devoid of any sort of coherent ideology and of course committed a cardinal error in August of 2015. That has played a huge role in the rise of the AfD. Of course her supporters are now rewriting the CDU's history in a 1984-like manner, claiming that the CDU has always been a party of the center and not a conservative party at all (that's the sound of Adenauer spinning in his grave you are hearing). It wouldn't have required a right-wing CDU leader to prevent the rise of the AfD, just someone with any sort of discernible center-right ideological preferences. It's quite telling that some of the most glowing tributes to Merkel's time in office have come from the left.

And AKK subscribes to the interpretation of the CDU as a party that essentially does anything to stay in power as well.

True. Just not letting in 1.5 million illegals would have been enough to prevent the rise of the AfD. They were polling at 3% in the summer of 2015 and would've followed the Pirate Party's path to irrelevancy.

I agree with both quotes
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« Reply #83 on: December 08, 2018, 10:58:14 am »

Does nobody wanna know why I posted that date?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #84 on: December 08, 2018, 11:05:20 am »

Does nobody wanna know why I posted that date?

I just assumed election 2019 rumors.
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« Reply #85 on: December 08, 2018, 11:45:00 am »

Does nobody wanna know why I posted that date?

I just assumed election 2019 rumors.

That's the date when Merkel is likely to propose a vote of confidence.
If the confidence eludes her, the Federal President can thus dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days in order to call new general elections (but he isn't obliged to).
Snap elections have to be held on the last Sunday within 60 days after the dissolution of the parliament.
If Merkel proposes the vote of confidence on March 6, 2019, snap elections would consequently be held on May 26, hance at the same time as the European election, the Bremen state election and local elections in nine states.
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Aurelio21
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« Reply #86 on: December 08, 2018, 05:02:06 pm »

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

Trendlines are not permanent nor consistent. Yes the AfD is here to stay, but once the Green surge dissapates, the CDU will once again be the only German party above 25%. That's what I mean by behemoth, no party can enter govt eithout the CDU.

I would not be that sure. As LeChasseur noted, if someone has to chose between a lite version of the Greens and the orginal Greens, the original wins. This explains the rise of the Greens in recent polls. The taste of power makes anything possible and they might nominate W Kretschmann as real candidate for the chancellorship for the snap election.

Of course, Merkel will stay for now. Her centre of power lies in Berlin( Springer represented by Friede Springer) and Guetersloh (Bertelsmann represented by Liz Mohn). AKK's hold is only guaranteed by her, and PM Laschet. Will there be a harmonious tea time with AKK(an ardent catholic) and Friede Springer (an old-faith lutheran protestant).

Maybe AKK will try to emulate a centrist to center left(economical) position, yet the Greens and to a lesser extent the FDP are already occupying this spot. Merkel can leave a blank space for anyone projecting their (liberal) views on her. AKK cannot channel contraticting things like pro-islam (only laisser-faire-immigration) and  pro-alphabeth-salad(formerly known as LGTB) at all.
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Aurelio21
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« Reply #87 on: December 08, 2018, 05:37:34 pm »

Does nobody wanna know why I posted that date?

I just assumed election 2019 rumors.

That's the date when Merkel is likely to propose a vote of confidence.
If the confidence eludes her, the Federal President can thus dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days in order to call new general elections (but he isn't obliged to).
Snap elections have to be held on the last Sunday within 60 days after the dissolution of the parliament.
If Merkel proposes the vote of confidence on March 6, 2019, snap elections would consequently be held on May 26, hance at the same time as the European election, the Bremen state election and local elections in nine states.

Please keep in mind that Mr Steinmeier is a (inacitve) member of the SPD. He clearly knows that any election at this point would cause the end of the SPD. He was the pivotal figure for the SPD re-entering the coalition of doom after the failure of the Greens and FDP.

The rise of the Greens in polls, hypothetical and real, demontrates that the short term memory of the german electorate equals the american electorate, if not even worse.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #88 on: December 09, 2018, 01:32:04 am »

  Well, one thing is for certain on March 6, its my birthday, and the prospect of a snap election would be a great birthday present.
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Diouf
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« Reply #89 on: December 09, 2018, 05:29:14 am »

In the end, it is probably just a question of how structural one sees the developments across countries. I remember we had basically the same argument back in 2015 in the old thread.

Quote from: Beezer
Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

Quote from: Great Again No More
In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Quote from: Diouf
Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Quote from: Beezer
Of course historical data doesn't necessarily tell us much about the future chances of success of a right-wing populist party. Nonetheless far right extremism remains as stigmatized as ever in (west) German society so I think the assertion that a populist party on the right can only do well if it credibly disassociates itself from the extrem right remains valid as well. Add to that the fact that infighting - as mentioned - tends to also scare away voters and you'll understand why the chances of the AfD entering the Bundestag in 2017 decreased substantially on sunday.
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Beezer
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« Reply #90 on: December 09, 2018, 06:28:23 am »

It is worth remembering of course that the migrant crisis brought the AfD back from the dead. It was polling at around 3-4 percent in the summer of 2015. But yeah, it does show that there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns and the latter can, I suppose, always play a key role in altering the composition of a party system.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #91 on: December 09, 2018, 06:33:22 am »

I think, that the discussion of snap elections is overhyped. CDU/CSU actually has no incentive to call snap elections, given the state of the polls. And I don't think Merkel wants to go with a faked vote of confidence (The three votes of confidence for calling fresh elections that happened either happened, because  the gonvernment lost its majority in the Bundestag (1972, though even this vote was technically faked by the ministers abstaining) or wanted a fresh mandate, either after the election of a new chancellor (1982) or out of a position that was seen as political precarious to show initaitve (2005).

The other way would be Merkel resigning (but that probably does not allign with her political ethos - resign and let the country in a state seen as unstable, because we would get into totally untestested constitutional waters). If Merkel resigns there would be a new chancellor election in the Bundestag, were President Steinmeier (SPD) has the right of the first proposal. Let's say it's more likely for the SPD to vote for Kramp-Karrenbauer then for Merz, but this is not sure. If Merkel resigns the election of AKK will probably be negotiated with the SPD beforehand. They won't go with burning AKK by three unsuccesful chancelor votes in the Bundestag. Of course, she could get a plurality in the third, which probably would lead to a short-termed Union/FDP minority government followed by a real lost vote of confidence. The Greens will not take part in a Jamaica governement before new elections. (BTW they will not nominate Kretschmann, they are very satisfied with their Duo Habeck/Baerbock that has actually shifted the intra-party center of power back from Baden-Württemberg to the federal party).

And if they really go for snap elections, they will probably wait till the dust is settled, let themselves time to prepare and go for a more traditional election date in autumn. There is no reason to hasten things, especially as Merkel has a good working relationship with her heir apparent Kramp-Karrenbauer.
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« Reply #92 on: December 09, 2018, 07:11:45 am »

Aren't no-confidence votes in Germany supposed to be constructive? (ie they need an alternative candidate)

Because in that case, barring some sort of impossible SPD candidate backed by FDP, Linke and Grune there's no scenario that doesn't lead to Chancellor AKK (even in a very weak minority government) or Merkel staying
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #93 on: December 09, 2018, 07:23:01 am »

There are two different forms of confidence vote. The one is the constructive no-confidence vote you mentioned. The other is a confidence vote, that the chancellor can call ("Vertrauensfrage"). I he or she looses that (and he or she has to get the absolutemajority of Bundestag members), the president CAN dissolve the Bundestag and call fresh elections, but he is not obliged to. There were the three "unsuccesful" confidence votes I mentioned (1972, Kohl 1982, 2005) and I think two succesful (Schmidt 1982 and one by Schröder that was connected with an out-of-area mandate for the Bundeswehr decision).

Of course the chancellor could also resign, at which point the constitutional process of a new chancellor election would have to take place, that also could lead to new elections, but only after at least three votes. But Merkelwould not do ist, if the election of AKK is not (at least almost) safe.
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Aurelio21
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« Reply #94 on: December 09, 2018, 07:43:59 am »

I think, that the discussion of snap elections is overhyped. CDU/CSU actually has no incentive to call snap elections, given the state of the polls. And I don't think Merkel wants to go with a faked vote of confidence […]

The other way would be Merkel resigning (but that probably does not allign with her political ethos - resign and let the country in a state seen as unstable, because we would get into totally untestested constitutional waters). […] Of course, she could get a plurality in the third, which probably would lead to a short-termed Union/FDP minority government followed by a real lost vote of confidence. The Greens will not take part in a Jamaica governement before new elections. (BTW they will not nominate Kretschmann, they are very satisfied with their Duo Habeck/Baerbock that has actually shifted the intra-party center of power back from Baden-Württemberg to the federal party).
There is no reason to hasten things, especially as Merkel has a good working relationship with her heir apparent Kramp-Karrenbauer.

- I do not think either that a snap election will be called as even with AKK or another candidate, as the CDU in her current incarnation prefers the SPD as partner. Mrs Merkel reportedly did not like the CDU/FDP coalition at all.
- AKK is not CDU chair on her own right. She is only a compromise(-d) surrogate for Mrs Merkel. I can remember in Feb'18, nobody had her in account. She was chosen as compromise between Merkelistas and the conservative cultural and economical Laisser-faire parts of the CDU as the most conservative Merkelista.
- As proven with her choice for secretary general, she is no skilled tactician. Her success was orchestrated by Mrs Merkel and PM Laschet.
- Barring any newly found strategic and tactical skills, after Merkel Mr Laschet will push her simply aside
- Never in the history of the CDU, there has been a open public steady 40-% opposition to the chairmanship! Within the conservative CDU, showing disunity to the outside was always a big taboo.
- Mr Habeck has success because he channels the "no experiments" mood while the CDU signals instability. That and the uncritical pro-green media coverage of anything he does swings some affluent CDU voters to the greens in purely hypothetical polls(which have except for the election in Bavaria always overestimated Green support).
« Last Edit: December 09, 2018, 07:53:39 am by Aurelio21 »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #95 on: December 29, 2018, 11:57:45 am »

Merkel has slipped into 3rd place in the SPIEGEL popularity ranking of major German politicians (= Kantar Public poll) and she was overtaken by AKK:

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