Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

More on ÖVP-FPÖ's tax cut/reform plans for next year and the roadmap to implementation:

After Christmas and New Year, the ÖVP-FPÖ cabinet will be on a work retreat on Jan. 10 and 11 to work out detailed plans for the tax cut/reform that starts in early 2020. It will be passed in parliament together with the 2020 budget in the fall.

In an interview today, Kurz said that the tax cut will not only involve a restructuring and simplification of the tax brackets and the tax code (which has become unreadable), but also a reduction of social insurance contributions for employees and employers - rather than lowering the income tax.



This mostly because social insurance contributions already make up a larger share than income taxes and because low- and middle-income earners would benefit most of this tax cut, because many of them already pay no income tax at all due to their low pay - but high social insurance contributions.

The plans are worth 5-6 Bio. € annually, which is a moderate amount and would likely not impact the budget plans all too much and could still see small surpluses if implemented.

https://orf.at/stories/3103594

ÖVP-FPÖ will also work to reform the long-term care system for the elderly and Kurz said that a private long-term care insurance (like in Germany) could be an option, to keep the care/pension system viable in the long run - as people get older and older. Currently, the Austrian Sozialstaat (= social welfare state) is paying for the entire old-age care and even abolished the state recourse recently, which tapped into people's private assets if they needed care. But experts question if this will still be sustainable in a few decades, without supplemental private care insurance.



The SPÖ is also working on a new care reform, with an emphasis on local "care centers" - where (old) people in need of care can hand in their care request and a so-called "case worker" will help them out in most of the situations (bureaucratic stuff etc. which is often pretty tough for old people) and by providing them the care workers they need at home or in a care center.

https://derstandard.at/2000093334612/SPOe-will-eine-Milliarde-mehr-fuer-Pflege

The Evangelical Church of Austria will decide in March next year if they will allow gays/lesbians to marry in their churches when it becomes legal in Austria on Jan. 1, 2019. Their bishop Michael Bünker is leaning in favour. The Catholic Church obviously won't allow them.



https://derstandard.at/2000093397831/Evangelische-Kirche-entscheidet-ueber-Trauung-Homosexueller-Paare

And ÖVP-FPÖ are at odds when it comes to finding a successor to the ageing Eurofighter jet fleet and the Saab training jets, which are almost 50 years old. The Eurofighters were ordered by the previous, corrupt and ineffective ÖVP-FPÖ government and Austria was basically screwed over by Airbus and their lobbyists and the ÖVP and FPÖ then, which led to many parliamentary investigation committees (one is still ongoing). The SPÖ then won the election in 2006 because of this corruption, using election slogans like "Here flys your pension raise." (... with a Eurofighter in the background).



ÖVP-FPÖ 2.0 wants to avoid another media outcry and a quick solution. But while the ÖVP favours an upgrade to the Eurofighters and remain with Airbus, the FPÖ wants a complete new-start and new Saab Gripens from Sweden as well as new Swedish or Czech training jets.

https://derstandard.at/2000093404084/Eurofighter-Verteidigungsminister-Kunasek-draengt-auf-Entscheidung

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader and Vice-Chancellor Strache and his wife Philippa are expecting their first child (a son) shortly before or around Christmas.



After the birth of their child, Strache will take paternity leave for several months and be a stay-at-home-dad, but will likely be back full-time for the EU elections in May.

Strache will also donate his salary as Vice-Chancellor (20.000€ per month) to charitable child or animal organisations during his time of paternal leave.

https://www.krone.at/1820747

He also said that he and his wife often visit Kurz and his girlfriend Susanne at their apartment in Vienna to have dinner or common evenings together, so their relationship as Chancellor and Vice-Chancellor and "governing couples" remain awesome.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is now starting a more aggressive approach against the ÖVP-FPÖ government:

They are out with a new cartoon video, in which they list 10 issues where ÖVP-FPÖ failed the population over the past year - such as the expansion of the labour law to 60 hours per week (=> flexi-work law).

They also accuse Chancellor Kurz of being a "Silent Chancellor" (which was recently also picked as "term of the year 2018"), because he remains silent on important issues too many times. For example, Kurz often tries to sit things out if there's an FPÖ controversy coming to light, instead of speaking a word of power. Thankfully, in recent months such cases of anti-semitism became very rare within the FPÖ, as they are trying to act as a serious government party.



The FPÖ meanwhile, as the attack dog of the coalition, shot back at the SPÖ with a video on their own, using the same cartoon version like the SPÖ did. They also listed several issues, where the SPÖ failed over the past years. The video argues that ÖVP-FPÖ are now cleaning up the mess created by the SPÖ on immigration and rising unemployment.

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5543356/Kampf-der-Videos_Das-ist-die-FPOeAntwort-auf-SPOeKurzfilm

https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/eu/5543418/SPOeKritik_Sebastian-was-hast-du-gemacht

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/oesterreich/chronik/1006448_Schweigekanzler-ist-das-oesterreichische-Wort-des-Jahres-2018.html

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls about man-made climate change and the plastic ban:

71% of Austrians think that the recent climate change is man-made
24% think that it's hard to say what is really responsible (humans or natural changes)

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20181207_OTS0189/atv-frage-der-woche-ist-der-mensch-fuer-den-klimawandel-verantwortlich

86% of Austrians favour the total plastic bag/packaging ban that ÖVP-FPÖ will introduce next year
11% are against

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20181208_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-86-fuer-plastiksackerlverbot

[Tender Branson]

An article about immigrant kids in our schools:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/refugee-teens-in-austrian-schools-straddle-different-worlds/2018/12/09/35085b84-fb8e-11e8-8642-c9718a256cbd_story.html

[Tender Branson]

Quite a stupid move from the FPÖ:

They are suing Austria for 3.4 million € because of the repeat Presidential runoff in 2016.

https://derstandard.at/2000093566068/FPOe-will-per-Schadenersatzklage-3-4-Millionen-vom-Staat

This won't be taken favourably by the voters ...

[Tender Branson]

Another poll shows the FPÖ dropping to 22% ...

ATV/Austria Trend (Dec. 3-11, n=800, phone+online, eligible voters aged 16+):

35% ÖVP (+2)
26% SPÖ (+1)
22% FPÖ (-3)
  9% NEOS (+2)
  5% Greens (-1)
  3% NOW (+1)

Chancellor vote:

38% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP)
17% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
13% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
  5% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)

ÖVP-FPÖ government approval rating:

47% approve
48% disapprove

SPÖ-NEOS-Greens-NOW opposition approval rating:

31% approve
61% disapprove

Chancellor Kurz (ÖVP) approval rating:

61% approve
31% disapprove

President Van der Bellen (Greens) approval rating:

53% approve
37% disapprove

https://atv.at/oesterreichtrend

[bigic]

It's interesting that the government approval rate dropped, while the approval rate of Chancellor Kurz is still high. I guess it's because of some unpopular thing done by FPÖ (such as them suing the state), because FPÖ support also dropped.

[Tender Branson]

It's interesting that the government approval rate dropped, while the approval rate of Chancellor Kurz is still high. I guess it's because of some unpopular thing done by FPÖ (such as them suing the state), because FPÖ support also dropped.

It might be several things:

* the junior partner in a coalition is always losing ground after a while, while the Chancellor party remains stronger and reaps the rewards.

* the FPÖ being in government might satisfy some of their former protest voters and as the immigration issue is fading away, they might go to the ÖVP now.

* Some might abandon the FPÖ for the "other" parties, because they are now more moderate instead of being extremist or anti-semitic. There's still some room of about 5% to the Right of the FPÖ, even though it's illegal ...

* on the other hand, some other FPÖ voters might be disappointed by their support for the 60-hour week, which they passed into law, or their lawsuit to get money back from the state.

* or MoE.

[Tender Branson]

What's also interesting:

In the new poll, a ÖVP-NEOS-Green coalition would be possible for the first time in Austria.

But only by a small margin (49-48).

This so-called "watermelon" or "dirndl" coalition would be the same as we have right now here in Salzburg and an alternative to endless SPÖ-ÖVP, ÖVP-SPÖ or ÖVP-FPÖ coalitions (SPÖ-FPÖ or FPÖ-SPÖ is not possible on the federal level).

It's still much more likely though that ÖVP-FPÖ will win a 2nd term and remain coalition partners for at least 10 years.

[Omega21]

What's also interesting:

In the new poll, a ÖVP-NEOS-Green coalition would be possible for the first time in Austria.

But only by a small margin (49-48).

This so-called "watermelon" or "dirndl" coalition would be the same as we have right now here in Salzburg and an alternative to endless SPÖ-ÖVP, ÖVP-SPÖ or ÖVP-FPÖ coalitions (SPÖ-FPÖ or FPÖ-SPÖ is not possible on the federal level).

It's still much more likely though that ÖVP-FPÖ will win a 2nd term and remain coalition partners for at least 10 years.

God no. Green politics Austria wide would be cancer. Mass migration and more open door policies would ensue, and no steps like the Burka ban or lower benefits for migrants would be possible.

[Tender Branson]

What's also interesting:

In the new poll, a ÖVP-NEOS-Green coalition would be possible for the first time in Austria.

But only by a small margin (49-48).

This so-called "watermelon" or "dirndl" coalition would be the same as we have right now here in Salzburg and an alternative to endless SPÖ-ÖVP, ÖVP-SPÖ or ÖVP-FPÖ coalitions (SPÖ-FPÖ or FPÖ-SPÖ is not possible on the federal level).

It's still much more likely though that ÖVP-FPÖ will win a 2nd term and remain coalition partners for at least 10 years.

God no. Green politics Austria wide would be cancer. Mass migration and more open door policies would ensue, and no steps like the Burka ban or lower benefits for migrants would be possible.

Not really.

A coalition like this would definitely be a nice alternative to ÖVP-FPÖ right now, because the Greens would only have 1/10th of the power in that coalition.

Which means in a government, they would only get 1 or 2 cabinet members (such as environmental minister and transport/infrastructure or something). The interior ministry would definitely stay with the ÖVP.

And I agree with you that the Greens should never be handed the Interior Ministry or anything that has to do with immigration. The Greens need to be kept away from these areas for the next decades !

[Tender Branson]

Economic conditions are expected to remain good in the coming years, according to a new forecast by the National Bank:



GDP has grown by about 2.7% each in 2017 and 2018 and should go down a bit in the coming years, but remain above the EU-average.

Private consumption remains a good contributor to economic growth and inflation will remain around 2%.

Unemployment (which reached a peak of 6% in 2015) should go down to about 4.5%

The budget could end up balanced already this year and small surpluses are projected for the next years (even though there will be tax cuts for families and low/middle-income earners).

Debt as a % of GDP will decline from a high of 87% to about 62% by 2022 (while the Fiscal Council of Parliament even forecasts a decline to 60% by 2022 due to favourably low interest rates).

I really like the fiscal discipline of the ÖVP-FPÖ government: looking for balanced budgets, or small surpluses, lowering the debt to 60% (= the critical Maastricht level) and at the same time passing tax cuts for families with kids and for low/middle-income earners. When their 1st term is up in 2022, the debt level could be ~60% of GDP again, which would be back to the 1990s and even much lower than at the start of the financial crisis in 2007/08.

At the same time, debt in the US is exploding to 110% of GDP and beyond ...

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll (n=800, Dec. 10-14, phone+online, eligible voters aged 16+):

35% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
22% FPÖ
  8% NEOS
  6% Greens
  2% NOW
  1% Others

Chancellor vote:

37% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP)
16% Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
12% H.C. Strache (FPÖ)

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kurz-kanzlerfrage-10536600

[Tender Branson]

Another new poll by "Market" for the "Standard" (n=804, Dec. 7-12, phone+online, eligible voters aged 16+) also shows the ÖVP-FPÖ government very stable at their one-year-anniversary:

34% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
  7% NEOS
  5% Greens
  2% NOW
  1% Others

Chancellor vote:

36% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP)
26% Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
 9% H.C. Strache (FPÖ)
 4% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
 1% Maria Stern (NOW)




https://derstandard.at/2000093981869/Umfrage-zeigt-Stabilitaet-der-Regierung

[Tender Branson]

This weekend marks the 1-year anniversary of the conservative/nationalist ÖVP-FPÖ government.

A review:

The long Honeymoon of Austria's right-wing alliance

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.thelocal.at/20181215/the-long-honeymoon-of-austrias-right-wing-alliance

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Well let's hope for a OVP - NEOS - Green coalition next time.

[Omega21]

Well let's hope for a OVP - NEOS - Green coalition next time.

99% not happening. This is the first coalition that got sh**t done in years. Benefit cuts for migrants and more money for single parents and disabled people, not signing the Migration pact, Tax reform, Healthcare reform, and the first Budget surplus in decades.

By all standards, the government is a dream.

[Tender Branson]

Well let's hope for a OVP - NEOS - Green coalition next time.

99% not happening. This is the first coalition that got sh**t done in years. Benefit cuts for migrants and more money for single parents and disabled people, not signing the Migration pact, Tax reform, Healthcare reform, and the first Budget surplus in decades.

By all standards, the government is a dream.

I wouldn't rule it out completely ...

Only 1 in 5 years of this government is over and while they got some important things done (which they were elected for, such as showing the middle-finger to illegal immigrants and running a harmonious government instead of constant infighting), it's still not guaranteed that this harmony will last another 4 years.

The first test will come during the EU elections when ÖVP and FPÖ will have to campaign against each other and first cracks could show up.

Maybe they will get past that and downplay it as a 2nd-class election anyway and focus on domestic politics again, but there will come a time when the FPÖ drops to around 20% and they will need to become more aggressive again to avoid internal discourse. Which will then also become a burden on the coalition.

The Greens will definitely re-structure over the next years and as they focus more on bread-and-butter issues like environmentalism again, they will definitely clear the 4% again in 2022. Maybe they will even merge with NOW again later on (which at this point seems unlikely).

If ÖVP-FPÖ falls apart ... somehow ... in the coming years, ÖVP-NEOS-Greens could turn out to be a viable alternative to ÖVP-SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

There was a "major" protest in Vienna today on the anniversary of the ÖVP-FPÖ government formation.

But quite a small one.

About 30.000 people were expected, about 17.000 left-wing people came to protest:





https://derstandard.at/2000094035225/Ein-Jahr-Tuerkis-Blau-Demo-gegen-Regierung-bisher-friedlich-und

The small crowd was mostly because of the snowy, cold weather - but it also shows that Austrians mostly approve of the government so far.

[Omega21]

There was a "major" protest in Vienna today on the anniversary of the ÖVP-FPÖ government formation.

But quite a small one.

About 30.000 people were expected, about 17.000 left-wing people came to protest:





https://derstandard.at/2000094035225/Ein-Jahr-Tuerkis-Blau-Demo-gegen-Regierung-bisher-friedlich-und

The small crowd was mostly because of the snowy, cold weather - but it also shows that Austrians mostly approve of the government so far.

These people...

Why are they pretending that the government is making people poor lol... In fact, after the recent changes, a lot of Austrians will have more money in their pockets, not less.

I am dumbfounded by the fact that they think that giving money to each and every migrant for no reason is sustainable. Money doesn't grow on trees, and the Migrant benefits are paid for by hard working people.

This is the reason I'm so opposed to having anything else other than ÖVP-FPÖ, because any other government, no matter which position is given to which party, would not be as tough on the issues I care about. The country is only worth as much as the people in it, and bad migration policies cannot be reversed.

Edit:

Seems like the self-proclaimed "Radical Left" was also a part of the event.



Funny that it's ok to have a group of radical Communists protesting.

[Tender Branson]

With another new poll out today (GfK for the "Presse" newspaper), here are the averages of the 5 December polls from different pollsters so far and changes compared with the 2017 election:

34.4% ÖVP (+2.9%)
26.0% SPÖ (-0.9%)
23.1% FPÖ (-2.9%)
  7.9% NEOS (+2.6%)
  5.3% Greens (+1.5%)
  2.1% NOW (-2.3%)
  1.2% Others (-0.9%)

57.5% ÖVP-FPÖ government (n.c.)
41.3% SPÖ-NEOS-Greens-NOW opposition (+0.9%)
  1.2% Others (-0.9%)

[Conservatopia]

If OVP were to gain sufficient seats so as to have a choice between FPO and NEOS how likely are they to go with Neos?

Are Neos more like FDP and VVD or more like the Lib Dems and D66?  I'm guessing the latter?

[TheSaint250]

Are Neos more like FDP and VVD or more like the Lib Dems and D66?  I'm guessing the latter?

I believe the former since I remember Tender talking about NEOS possibly supporting some economic proposals of the new government and leaning more towards economic liberalism as opposed to the social-liberal leanings of the latter two, though he can probably give you a better answer.

[Tender Branson]

Are Neos more like FDP and VVD or more like the Lib Dems and D66?  I'm guessing the latter?

I believe the former since I remember Tender talking about NEOS possibly supporting some economic proposals of the new government and leaning more towards economic liberalism as opposed to the social-liberal leanings of the latter two, though he can probably give you a better answer.

Somewhere in the middle of these. But the FDP seems like a good comparison, even though NEOS seems to be a bit friendlier towards immigration and multiculturalism.

Also: To your first question, the ÖVP won't gain enough seats to form a coalition with NEOS alone. There needs to be a 3rd partner, like the (possibly) resurgent Greens in 2022.