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Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0  (Read 48229 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #275 on: December 26, 2017, 03:38:27 am »

I recently went over the results maps of the Oct. 15 election again and noticed an interesting regional pattern:

If you combine the shares of VP+FP+FL+CP+EUExit+NBZ (= the more authoritarian-leaning parties) on a district basis and compare it with the 2013 results of VP+FP+Stronach+BZ+CP+EUExit, you will notice that the "Right" gained some 4% between the elections Austria-wide.

But there are areas in which they gained significantly more and below-average (such as inner-city Vienna and other urban areas).

These changes mostly correlate not with unemployment rates or income/GDP-strength of these regions, but mostly with education levels.

In areas where VP/FP & Co. gained above-average between 2013-2017, the population's highest level of education is apprenticeship, whereas the urban/suburban areas have a much higher level of upper secondary or university educated voters.

I asked the poster "Georg Ebner" to create a district-level map to show this pattern to you.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #276 on: December 27, 2017, 03:06:25 am »

Austrian voters are starting into the new year with strong approval for VP/FP and their key policies, according to a new Market poll for the left-liberal "Standard" newspaper:

By a 53-33 margin, voters approve of the new government as a whole. 93% of FP-voters approve and 84% of VP-voters. As do big majorities of men and older voters.

On the question which party succeeded in putting their policies into the new coalition contract, 33% say the FP and just 18% the VP, while 41% say "both equally".

Especially voters from the FP, the SP and NEOS say that the FP has succeeded with their issues.

The poll also asked voters about 14 key policy issues in the coalition contract (and the approval is similar to the OGM and Research Affairs polls earlier):

Voters strongly support 12/14 issues, while being opposed to eliminating the total public smoking ban and more work-day-flexibility.

Also, President VdB's approval rating is at 53-41.

VP-voters approve of VdB by 56-42, FP-voters disapprove by 90-7, SP-voters approve by 75-18 and NEOS-voters by 92-8.

http://derstandard.at/2000071039515/Umfrage-Breite-Zustimmung-zum-Grossteil-des-Regierungsprogramms
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #277 on: December 27, 2017, 03:11:38 am »

It seems VP and FP are heading into their victory laps during the coming 4 state elections ...

A new poll out today for the February Tyrol state election (GMK/Bezirksbltter) shows the VP dominating there and with a chance for an absolute majority. And if they slightly fail to get an absolute majority, they can choose the Greens again (who are not collapsing as much as I thought), or choose the FP, the SP or NEOS as their coalition partners:



https://www.meinbezirk.at/land-tirol/politik/exklusive-umfrage-regierung-mit-gutem-zeugnis-d2357780.html

VP+FP+NEOS+Fritz+Impuls are at 77% together, while SP+Greens are at just 22%.

That would be an even better result for the combined Right than at the federal election in October.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #278 on: December 28, 2017, 02:46:04 am »

I actually like the SP-Lower Austria campaign for the January 28 state election:

Quote
"Lower Austria needs a 2nd opinion."

http://www.franz-schnabl.at

Schnabl, the SP's frontrunner, is a retired police officer and his campaign is using - a sometimes funny - checks-and-balances approach against the dominating VP there.



Quote
"2nd opinion ? Roger !"



Quote
"A new handwriting/signature for our state."



Quote
"We are heating up, where social coldness dominates."



Quote
"A 2nd opinion never hurts !"
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #279 on: December 28, 2017, 01:09:09 pm »

A new "TT.com" newspaper poll for the Feb. 25 Tyrol state election has both the VP and FP gaining a lot compared with the 2013 state election, while the SP remains stable and the Greens, FRITZ and other parties are losing ground. NEOS, who didn't run in 2013, is right at the 5% threshold:



Here are the poll results, compared with earlier polls and the 2013 results:



Preferred coalition (currently, it's VP+Greens):



Which parties do you trust most to solve the political issues in the state of Tyrol ?



http://www.tt.com/politik/13830551-91/schwarz-blau-hat-die-nase-vor-landtagswahl-in-tirol-klar-vorne.csp
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #280 on: December 29, 2017, 12:51:54 am »

3 of the 14 Constitutional Court judges are to be replaced in the next weeks, because they reach the legal maximum age of 70 and will therefore retire.

The current Presiding Judge of the Constitutional Court will be among them and will be the first to be replaced (by the VP/FP government, which has the nomination right for the presiding judge).

The other 2 are to be nominated by the Parliament (1 by the National Council and 1 by the Federal Council, with hearings).

The FP said before the election that their aim is to replace the 3 outgoing judges with at least 2 "FP-leaning" ones (it remains to be seen if the VP agrees).

http://derstandard.at/2000071171214/VfGH-Naechste-Woche-Ausschreibung-fuer-Praesidenten-und-zwei-Mitglieder
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #281 on: December 29, 2017, 08:54:10 am »

New internal VP-poll for the April Salzburg state election here:



Greens seem way too high. FP too low. I also think the VP will do better than that. A lot of former Green-voters will go to the VP and NEOS this time. The SP won't benefit as much from the Green loss here, because Salzburg-Greens tend to be more conservative.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #282 on: December 29, 2017, 01:59:15 pm »

The new Finance Minister Hartwig Lger (VP) has outlined first details about the coming 2018-19 double budgets, which are going to be passed in the spring.

He's planning for a 0.5% budget deficit for 2018 and a balanced budget for 2019 - and this despite the family/child tax credit kicking in in 2018 (= 1.500 per child) and the lowering of associated wage costs for employers and employees (some 300 per worker).

To achieve this, all cabinet members have to cut administrative spending by some 2.5 Bio. and there will be some cuts to government subsidies (previously mentioned subsidies that might be cut involve the job creation bonus and the hiring programme for unemployed over the age of 50. VP/FP argue that these subsidies are wasteful right now, because the strong economy is creating new jobs anyway in record numbers. The SP argues the job growth picked up because of it, not despite the subsidies.)



The "big" tax reform should take effect in 2020 then and will be at least 4 Bio. , but Lger wants to keep the top tax rate for high-income-earners (55%) in place for solidarity reasons. The exact tax bracket re-structuring and relieve will be worked out over the next two years, but small and middle-income earners are the main focus of the coalition and will likely get the most relieve.

http://derstandard.at/2000071216235/Finanzminister-plant-2018-Kuerzungen-von-2-5-Milliarden-Euro
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #283 on: December 29, 2017, 02:19:21 pm »

Herbert Kickl (FP) and the new Interior Minister, will enforce a new and stricter gun control law which takes effect on July 1 next year - banning the sale of high-capacity magazines for guns and rifles:

Under the new stricter gun law, gun-owners are only allowed to buy magazines containing no more than 20 bullets and a max. of 10 for rifles (currently most Glock magazines for example have 33-35 bullets).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/rauchen-bezahlen-studieren-das-aendert-sich-fuer-uns-2018/303.300.424

Evil far-right-winger ...
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« Reply #284 on: December 29, 2017, 07:51:46 pm »

3 of the 14 Constitutional Court judges are to be replaced in the next weeks, because they reach the legal maximum age of 70 and will therefore retire.

The current Presiding Judge of the Constitutional Court will be among them and will be the first to be replaced (by the VP/FP government, which has the nomination right for the presiding judge).

The other 2 are to be nominated by the Parliament (1 by the National Council and 1 by the Federal Council, with hearings).

The FP said before the election that their aim is to replace the 3 outgoing judges with at least 2 "FP-leaning" ones (it remains to be seen if the VP agrees).

Treating constitutional courts as appointed chambers of parliament is bad and politicians who do it should feel bad
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #285 on: December 30, 2017, 04:46:00 am »

3 of the 14 Constitutional Court judges are to be replaced in the next weeks, because they reach the legal maximum age of 70 and will therefore retire.

The current Presiding Judge of the Constitutional Court will be among them and will be the first to be replaced (by the VP/FP government, which has the nomination right for the presiding judge).

The other 2 are to be nominated by the Parliament (1 by the National Council and 1 by the Federal Council, with hearings).

The FP said before the election that their aim is to replace the 3 outgoing judges with at least 2 "FP-leaning" ones (it remains to be seen if the VP agrees).

Treating constitutional courts as appointed chambers of parliament is bad and politicians who do it should feel bad

The FP argues that if 2 of the 3 to be appointed new judges are "FP-leaning", it would represent society and the recent election results more closely.

But yeah, I agree, filling new posts on the CC should be done according to expertise (like it was done until now) and not along party leanings.

And even if the FP presents FP-leaning candidates, there's still some checks and balances such as the before-mentioned nomination rights from the government, the national council and federal council incl. hearings - and as a final say - President VdB has to swear in new judges or refuse to swear them in.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #286 on: December 30, 2017, 04:54:43 am »

The FP condemns a (small) boycott-call published recently in the French newspaper "Le Monde":

Austrian far-right condemns international call for boycott of its cabinet members

Quote
Austria's far-right on Friday said an open letter calling for the boycott of its new cabinet members was a "transparent manouevre" and a "last-ditch attempt of the united left".

The anti-immigration Freedom Party (FPOe) has six cabinet members -- including the heads of the interior, foreign and defence ministries -- in Austria's new conservative coalition government after October elections that saw voters move to the right.

"Do not turn a blind eye: The heirs of Nazism have come into a position of power in the new Austrian government," said the open letter, published on Thursday on French newspaper Le Monde's website.

Led by European Grassroots Antiracist Movement president Benjamin Abtan, the statement was signed by international figures including former French and Spanish foreign ministers.

FPOe secretary-general Harald Vilimsky said in a statement Friday that the "so-called" boycott came from "retired leftist politicians trying to get publicity".

"No serious current politician will attach importance to these voices from the political past," said Vilimsky. The letter was "the last-ditch attempt of the united left to do harm to the new Austrian government", he added.

Vilimsky said FPOe ministers, who were sworn in mid-December were "honourable, competent and beyond reproach".

Signatories of the letter include former French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner, former Spanish foreign minister Miguel Angel Moratinos, "Nazi-hunters" Serge and Beate Klarsfeld, Nobel Peace Prize winner and former East Timorese president Jose Ramos-Horta, as well former Canadian prime minister Kim Campbell.

https://www.thelocal.at/20171229/austrian-far-right-condemns-international-call-for-boycott
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #287 on: January 01, 2018, 02:01:20 am »

Here are the previous election results of the 4 upcoming state elections between Jan. 28-April 22:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #288 on: January 01, 2018, 04:34:31 am »

My preliminary prediction for Lower Austria's state election in 4 weeks:

48.5% VP (-2.5%)
24.0% SP (+2.5%)
18.5% FP (+10.5%)
  5.0% NEOS (+5.0%)
  4.0% Greens (-4.0%)

I believe that most former TS-voters (10%) will go to the FP, while many former Green- and KP-voters will lift the SP slightly, as well as NEOS (who will also gain from the VP).

Considering the 4%-threshold in Lower Austria, the Greens are fighting for their survival. If they are in, the VP would have no absolute majority in my prediction. If they are out, the VP could govern alone.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #289 on: January 01, 2018, 11:42:53 am »

VP/FP have just killed 2 of the main policies from former Chancellor Kern, effective yesterday:

* the job creation bonus
* the employment programme for unemployed aged 50+

http://derstandard.at/2000071308023/Regierung-stellte-Beschaeftigungsbonus-und-Aktion-20-000-ein

The SP is going crazy on Twitter and elsewhere ...
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« Reply #290 on: January 01, 2018, 12:17:19 pm »

What are the possible benefits of killing those two programs? They seem to actually go about impacting issues in society and would likely be very popular...
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« Reply #291 on: January 01, 2018, 12:49:57 pm »

So what kind of parties are Vorwrtz Tirol and Fritz?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #292 on: January 01, 2018, 02:01:56 pm »

What are the possible benefits of killing those two programs? They seem to actually go about impacting issues in society and would likely be very popular...

The benefits would be savings, mostly.

VP/FP argue that the state-funded employment/hiring bonus and the 50+ programme are not needed anymore because the economy is booming and jobs are created in record numbers right now anyway. So, by scrapping them the state can save some 500 million to 1 Bio. each year. The SP argues that these programmes, which they initiated, helped long-term unemployed back into the job (especially long-term unemployed over the age of 50, who basically never find a job again) and lowered unemployment in general. They also attack the FP as a flip-flopping party, who backed measures to help "the small man" before the election, but are now acting 100% pro-business and anti-debt instead.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #293 on: January 01, 2018, 02:06:23 pm »

So what kind of parties are Vorwrts Tirol and Fritz?

VP-splinters. Parties with people who originated in the VP, worked for the VP most of their lives and then got into some disputes with the VP-leadership on various different topics.

Fritz for example focuses on transit (= Tyrol having a massive traffic and congestion and fine particle problem with trucks going from Germany to Italy via Tyrol and vice-versa). Often, these single-issues are enough for them to remain in the state parliament, but even Fritz is having a hard time now, because the VP is popular again and NEOS are also competing for their voters.

Vorwrts Tyrol and their splinter Impuls have both collapsed and won't make it into the next state parliament anymore (I think it's even possible they won't run anymore).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #294 on: January 01, 2018, 03:30:48 pm »

I was bored, so here are the recent election results in Austria, minus the 5 biggest cities (Vienna, Graz, Linz, Salzburg and Innsbruck. They usually account for ~26% of the eligible voters and around ~25% of all valid votes cast, because turnout is slightly lower in big cities):

* BCL Austria = big-city-less Austria

* BC Austria = big-city Austria

2017 Parliament (October)Sad

BCL Austria: 34.3% VP, 27.6% FP, 24.8% SP, 4.8% NEOS, 3.5% Pilz, 3.0% Greens, 0.9% GILT, 0.5% KP

BC Austria: 33.1% SP, 23.1% VP, 21.1% FP, 7.1% NEOS, 6.7% Pilz, 6.1% Greens, 1.5% KP, 0.9% GILT

Actual result: 31.5% VP, 26.9% SP, 26.0% FP, 5.3% NEOS, 4.4% Pilz, 3.8% Greens, 0.9% GILT, 0.8% KP

Turnout was 76% in the big cities and 82% in BCL-Austria (80.0% in total)

---

2016 President (December runoff)Sad

BCL Austria: 50.4% Hofer, 49.6% VdB

BC Austria: 65.6% VdB, 34.4% Hofer

Actual result: 53.8% VdB, 46.2% Hofer

Turnout was 72% in the big cities and 75% in BCL-Austria (74.2% in total)

---

2016 President (May runoff)Sad

BCL Austria: 54.1% Hofer, 45.9% VdB

BC Austria: 63.2% VdB, 36.8% Hofer

Actual result: 50.3% VdB, 49.7% Hofer

Turnout was 70% in the big cities and 74% in BCL-Austria (72.8% in total)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #295 on: January 02, 2018, 06:15:04 am »

Yesterday, Chancellor Kurz met with PM Rutte (Holland) to watch the New Year's Concert in Vienna and to talk about Austria's EU-presidency in the 2nd half of 2018 and Brexit talks.

Rutte was the first head of government to be invited by Kurz.



In the next days, the VP/FP coalition will retreat to a castle in Styria to work out their legislative agenda for this year, among them a tax relief for small- and medium-income workers, slashing state spending and wasteful bureaucracy to achieve a balanced budget, indexing child-benefits of non-Austrian parents to the levels of their home countries (which are often far lower than Austrian child benefits) and working on the climate strategy for 2030 (= 100% renewables).

Then, in mid-January, Chancellor Kurz will head abroad for the first time meeting with President Macron, followed by Chancellor Merkel. Notice how Kurz doesn't meet with Merkel first ... Tongue

http://derstandard.at/2000071345585/Kurz-reist-zu-Macron-dann-zu-Merkel
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #296 on: January 02, 2018, 06:42:31 am »

Good news from the labour market:

At the end of December, 444.000 people were registered as unemployed or in training programmes (& receiving unemployment money).

That's 28.000 fewer people than a year before (-6%). But still much higher than the 300.000 unemployed about 10 years ago, before the financial crisis.

On the other hand, 81.000 new jobs have been created over the past year and employment has reached a new high. (In US-terms, that would be a monthly job report gain of some 250.000 new jobs created).

The VP-FP government wants to re-structure unemployment money, so as to encourage more employment: For people who have paid long into the system before, unemployment money will remain high and will be paid out for a long time. For those who have never paid into the system so far (such as university students, foreigners or young people in general etc.), they will only receive unemployment money for a shorter period of time anymore. Therefore they are being nudged into the labour market.

That pretty much resembles the mindset of the workaholic Kurz: If you are young, you have to work, or look after your own. And not the state. If you are a foreigner, you have to work. Or leave the country. Don't expect much from the state.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #297 on: January 02, 2018, 11:12:21 am »

Budget and debt data until November was released today.

It seems that the budget deficit for 2017 was somewhere between 0.5-0.7% last year, down from 1.6% the year before.

Debt as a % of GDP was ~79.6% (down from 83.6% the year before). Year-end numbers are out in March.

The significant reduction was possible because of the strong GDP growth (3% or more in real terms and some 4.8% in nominal terms). GDP is now some 370 Bio. , up from 353 Bio. the year before.

If the fast growth continues over the next few years, it's definitely possible that debt is going down further to around 60% of GDP (especially with a balanced budget or small surpluses).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #298 on: January 04, 2018, 09:41:34 am »

VP-FP are back to work after the Christmas/New Year holidays.

At a 2-day work retreat in Styria, they presented a cut in child benefits today for foreign parents who work in Austria, but who have their kids abroad. These cuts mostly target workers from Eastern Europe. The new child benefits will be lowered to the average cost of living in the workers home countries. As they are far lower than child benefits in Austria, it is expected that the state will save a few hundred million each year because of it, which can be used to finance the first small tax cut this year for low-income earners.



The EU is looking into it, because previously they have found a cut like this against EU laws - but Kurz & Strache said the measures are based on legal experts who think the EU Commission might OK them.

http://derstandard.at/2000071450581/OeVP-und-FPOe-kuerzen-Familienbeihilfe-fuer-Kinder-im-Ausland

Tomorrow will be mostly about finding new savings for the 2018-19 double budget, such as in administration and bureaucracy.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #299 on: January 04, 2018, 12:24:11 pm »

Here's the English article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics/austrias-new-government-plans-to-cut-child-benefits-abroad-idUSKBN1ET1RB

---

Also, FP-leader Strache said today that he favours semi-internment of asylum seekers in secured areas of army bases, where they would wait for their asylum applications to be processed.

VP-FP in general want to get rid of any privately organized housing for asylum seekers, because they think asylum seekers would have it too comfortable there and would integrate there to the point it would be hard to deport them after their asylum request is denied.

VP-FP rather prefer that asylum seekers do not get used to the country in the first place, be housed in large quarters for the 6-12 months it takes to process their application and if denied - you can better deport them. They also argue that if there's a curfew in place (such as between 9pm to 6am), crime would drop. Asylum seekers would also have to register when they leave the army base and when they return. Or be deported. That's on top of asylum seeker's phones and cash being confiscated when entering the country, to pay for their stay. Plus, a reducation of welfare payments. Instead, there's a focus on basic needs such as housing, clothes and food.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/strache-will-asylwerber-in-wien-in-kasernen-unterbringen/304.979.332

VP-FP also have plans for a mounted police force for Vienna:

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/plaene-fuer-berittene-polizei-in-wien/304.983.035
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