Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

New "Market"/Standard poll for the January 28 state election in Lower Austria:

46% ÖVP (-5%)
24% SPÖ (+2%)
17% FPÖ (+9%)
  6% NEOS (+6%)
  5% Greens (-3%)
  2% Others (but there are no other parties on the ballot)

http://derstandard.at/2000072255892/OeVP-Niederoesterreich-muss-um-absolute-Mehrheit-bangen

It seems the ÖVP loses to NEOS, while the SPÖ benefits from the Green collapse.

The FPÖ seems to (re)-gain former Team Stronach voters (they got 10% in 2013).

[Tender Branson]

Another thing worth noting is that the FPÖ is pretty "bouncy" in the Lower Austria state election polls, with support ranging from 17% to 22%.

Usually, if the polls show the FPÖ "bouncing around" it means that the party is underpolled. But with the current FPÖ government on the federal level, I wouldn't try a prediction about under- or overpolling.

Still, in the federal election the FPÖ performed very strongly in Lower Austria - receiving the same level of support as Austria-wide, while usually they get lower results there. The ÖVP underperformed compared with previous elections.

So, I wouldn't be surprised if the ÖVP ends between 40-45% in the state election and the FPÖ higher than 20%.

[Tender Branson]

Another new poll for the Lower Austria state election (Public Opinion Strategies for the NÖN):

48% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
17% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  5% Greens
  1% Others

http://www.noen.at/niederoesterreich/politik/aktuelle-noen-wahlumfrage-vp-absolute-in-griffweite-sp-klar-auf-platz-zwei-landtagswahl-2018-hajek-wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-absolute-mehrheit-wahl/74.117.527

[Tender Branson]

The VAT for overnight stays in the tourism/hotel sector has been lowered by ÖVP/FPÖ from 13% to 10%.

The SPÖ attacks the measure, saying that the tourism/hotel sector already has a lower VAT than regular companies (20%), but ÖVP/FPÖ and the tourism/hotel sector argue that it will create more jobs and lead to more tourism (Austria's tourism already had a record year in 2017).

[rob in cal]

   I've been researching traveling to Europe soon (summer of 2019), and Austria has so many cool places to visit.  Crazy thing is, few Americans ever go south of the "sound of music" line, visiting Salzburg and Vienna a lot, but ignoring places like Carinthia, Styria, Vorarlberg.  Even before the tax cut Austria was already a nice bargain compared to Switzerland.

[Tender Branson]

An EU-flag has almost clobbered FPÖ-leader Strache to death today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxcwaUAAj_M

As Strache walked by the EU flag, it fell to the floor and almost hit him on the head.

[Tender Branson]

A new Vienna state election (in 2020) poll by „Unique Research“ for „Heute“ newspaper has the FPÖ collapsing and the ÖVP gaining a lot. The SPÖ and Greens are losing as well, while NEOS would gain ground and PILZ would make it into the state parliament:



http://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Umfrage-deutet-in-Wien-Erdrutsch-an-46176394

[windjammer]

Why is the FPÖ losing ground?

[Tender Branson]

Why is the FPÖ losing ground?

The best explanation is that this poll is strange.

Other explanations are A) the ÖVP surprise gain in Vienna, which attracts FPÖ-voters, or B) that Gudenus was asked as FPÖ-frontrunner in the poll and not Strache, or C) the FPÖ's federal government participation which is driving down their numbers or D) the fact that the 2015 Vienna state election was right after the illegal immigrant swamp into Austria via Hungary and Slovenia and the intense battle for mayor between Strache and Häupl.

---

Anyway, Kurz was invited by Merkel today:

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz and Angela Merkel find common ground on immigration

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https://www.politico.eu/article/sebastian-kurz-and-angela-merkel-find-common-ground-on-immigration

Theresa May invites Austria’s Sebastian Kurz to UK

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https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-invites-austrias-sebastian-kurz-to-uk

[jimrtex]

An EU-flag has almost clobbered FPÖ-leader Strache to death today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxcwaUAAj_M

As Strache walked by the EU flag, it fell to the floor and almost hit him on the head.

Pretty odd. It almost looks like the woman pulled back before the flag fell (and does the curtain behind the flag move?), Strache keeps walking and then turns back. The women stares at Strache as if too ask why did you do that? Strache puts his hand to his heart as if to say, "I had nothing to do with it".

I think that the women probably was an active conspirator, or at least had pre-knowledge of the attack.

[Tender Branson]

In other news, Strache came under attack today because in September he suggested independence for the Serb Republic within Bosnia in a TV interview to a Serb channel:

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https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-heinz-christian-strache-under-attack-for-bosnia-comments

[Tender Branson]

The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) currently has some 21 million € in debts.

That is such a big amount that they had to sell one of the last big real estate belonging to the party worth some 21 million € as well (but only some 10 million € can be used for debt reduction).

https://derstandard.at/2000072451131/SPOe-verkauft-Gartenhotel-Altmannsdorf

Kern wants to have 10 million in debts by the end of the year and a debt-free party by 2020.

The Greens are heavily indebted as well, but recently managed to get an agreement with their banks to restructure.

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS are virtually all debt-free now already or even have surpluses.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll for the Lower Austria state election next Sunday:

[Tender Branson]

Austrian far-right orders 'border protection unit'

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https://www.thelocal.at/20180119/austrian-far-right-orders-border-protection-unit

Good, but the more important thing as of right now is the significant increase in the number of deportations of rejected asylum seekers (especially criminals) who are already in the country.

Last year, only 11.000 people were deported or left the country voluntarily - but there were more than 25.000 new asylum requests.

It would be better if deportations were increased to at least 30.000 per year, so that the number of asylum seekers decreases over the long run.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting new OGM/Kurier poll about the Lower Austria state election next Sunday (usually OGM is the best pollster).

First, the poll asked how voters rate security in their neighbourhood. And by party voters. Then the poll asked voters about security in the state as a whole.



93% of SPÖ-voters, 91% of ÖVP-voters and even 88% of FPÖ-voters say they feel secure in their neighbourhood.

But when it comes to the state as a whole, 83% of ÖVP-voters and 82% of SPÖ voters say the state is generally secure - but only 57% of FPÖ-voters.

Interesting also that 12% of SPÖ-voters say they don't feel secure at all.

https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/trendwende-beim-sicherheitsgefuehl/307.411.352

The state election poll results will be out tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna (=> 2020) state election poll by Research Affairs, which has totally different results than the one I posted above, especially when it comes to the FPÖ and ÖVP shares:



Voters also want Michael Ludwig to become the new mayor, rather than Andreas Schieder. The SPÖ will choose their new mayor next weekend at a convention. The race is wide open.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Ludwig-hat-klar-die-Nase-vorn/318044351

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There's also a new federal election poll by "Profil" magazine and Unique Research out today, which has the ÖVP gaining:

34% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
25% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  4% Greens
  3% LiPi
  1% Others

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-sebastian-kurz-kanzlerfrage-8652167

[Tender Branson]

A Chechen family of 6, who came to the country and applied for asylum in 2011 (but was rejected in 2015), has "disappeared" today from their apartment. Their lawyer has no further information on their status. Their case has been mentioned in the media several times over the last days, because the Greens and several human rights organisations have argued for them to remain in the country in a big "outcry".

It is likely that federal deportation forces have picked them up in the morning after a deportation request was issued by the FPÖ-held Interior Ministry and that they have been brought to the Vienna airport for deportation. They could already be in Russia by now.

The FPÖ-held Interior Ministry is also getting serious about deporting young, recent immigrants who are in training or already in work, because the FPÖ thinks that once they are integrated through work, they will never leave the country again.

https://derstandard.at/2000072672614/Familie-aus-Rueckkehrzentrum-verlegt-zeitnahe-Abschiebung-wahrscheinlich

But good to see that deportations are now apparently being increased and it's the extreme leftists who are crying and bytching around if something's not going their way ...

[MaxQue]

So, FPO dropped the pretence of not being an United Russia front.

[Lotuslander]

Tender, I recall your previous post on Kickl: "With Kickl, it's almost as if Goebbels is becoming Interior Minister.":

Austrian far-right orders 'border protection unit'

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[Tender Branson]

Probably the final poll for the Lower Austria state election next Sunday, by OGM for the "Kurier" newspaper (conducted Jan. 8-16, n=831, MoE = +/- 3.5%):

45% ÖVP (-6)
26% SPÖ (+4)
19% FPÖ (+11)
  5% Greens (-3)
  5% NEOS (+5)

* "other parties" received 11% in 2013 (especially the Team Stronach with 10%)

This is the best polling result for the SPÖ so far, but notice that the SPÖ also overpolled before the 2013 state election while the ÖVP underpolled.

"Which party should the ÖVP choose as coalition partner after the election, assuming they fail to get an absolute majority again ?"

32% FPÖ
31% SPÖ
  9% NEOS
  7% Greens

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/entscheidung-in-noe-eine-wahl-mit-fuenf-siegern/307.543.775

[Tender Branson]

Based on the poll above, the "Kurier" newspaper writes about a "state election with 5 winners".

Why ?

* the ÖVP, because even though they are likely not getting another absolute majority again after the retirement of their Governor for 25 years (Erwin Pröll), the new Governor (Johanna Mikl-Leitner) is still polling at 45% and very close to an absolute majority. And receiving 45% in times like these with fierce competition is remarkable. When Mikl-Leitner took over, it was projected that she'll finish with just 35-40% of the vote.

* the SPÖ, which seems to recover from their lowest result ever and getting some former Green voters.

* the FPÖ, who could get their best result ever in a state election there (mostly by gaining former Team Stronach voters). But Lower Austria remains one of their weakest states in state elections.

* the Greens, simply because they might remain in the state parliament (after the federal Greens got eliminated by the Austrian voter).

* the NEOS, because they might enter state parliament for the first time.

[Tender Branson]

Average regional (= states+districts) unemployment rates for 2017 have been released:





This is based on registered unemployed persons at the Labor Market Agency and should not be compared with the Eurostat/ILO unemployment rates (which are generally lower).

Vienna had by far the highest unemployment rate and Salzburg the lowest.

Among districts, Vienna (is classified as a "district") also leads - while Rohrbach in Upper Austria had the lowest rate.

Generally, unemployment is really high in Carinthia and Vienna (which are FPÖ- and SPÖ-strongholds) and in the Wiener Neustadt area south of Vienna (also FPÖ/SPÖ-dominated).

Unemployment is low in the West + in production/steel-dominated Upper Austria and recently has also fallen below the Austrian average in the steel and mining areas in Styria, which has seen a very good year 2017 (the steel and mining industry was one of the fastest growing sectors in the economy last year and also this year).

[Tender Branson]

A few days before the important Lower Austria state election, the FPÖ's frontrunner there is in huge trouble:



https://derstandard.at/2000072861626/Nazi-Lieder-bei-Burschenschaft-von-FPOe-Kandidat-Landbauer

Udo Landbauer (who's half Iranian btw) until today was member and Vice-President of the far-right fraternity "Germania".

The leftist "Falter" newspaper found documents (some newer, some older) from this Germania fraternity, especially songs and poems which glorify the Holocaust and war crimes in Spain (during the civil war there) and in Greece (during WW2).

Landbauer said "he was shocked about the revelations" and that "he didn't knew of these documents" and that he quit his membership today.

Chancellor Kurz calls the uncovered documents "absolutely disgusting" and a "disgrace" and that those responsible for the documents need to be tried in court.

SPÖ, NEOS, Pilz, Greens are calling for the immediate resignation of Landbauer and a criminal investigation.

[Tender Branson]

Here is a summary from the AFP:

Austria far-right under pressure over Nazi songbook

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https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/austria-far-right-under-pressure-over-nazi-songbook-doc-xl5jd3