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Tender Branson
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« Reply #400 on: February 03, 2018, 05:33:39 am »

Here's an infographic for the Tyrol state election in 3 weeks:

(right-click for big version)



Of the 8 parties running, 4 have women as frontrunners and 4 men (one man is actually missing in the infographic, Josef Schett from the "Impuls" party).

The Tyrol state election will be very interesting, because there are some 22-25% of votes from 2013 parties that are not competing in the 2018 election any longer or are guaranteed to lose support compared with their 2013 levels:

9.54% Vorwrts Tirol
4.84% BrgerKlub-Tirol
3.36% Team Stronach
0.73% Fr Tirol
0.53% KP
0.38% Piraten Partei Tirol

Plus about 2.6-3.6% from the Greens and maybe some 1.6% from the FRITZ list.

I think the VP will gain the most from of these defunct/losing parties, followed by the FP and NEOS. The SP should gain moderately as well.

The economy is doing very well in Tyrol, unemployment and debt is low - which are the main reasons I believe the VP could win an absolute majority this time (or come close to it).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #401 on: February 03, 2018, 05:54:38 am »

Health and anti-cancer experts, activists and doctors are launching a petition drive to kill VP/FP's plan to scrap the full smoking ban that would become law on May 1:

Quote
The Austrian doctors' association initiated on Friday a petition in favour of a smoking ban in bars and restaurants that would bring the country into line with most of the rest of Europe.

"We are one of the last counties in Europe not to have a smoking ban," said Paul Sevelda, head of cancer prevention and treatment organisation Krebshilfe Austria.
  
"And we know from other countries that a ban will lead to an immediate improvement in public health," he said.
 
The Alpine country is one of Europe's last havens for tobacco lovers and is nicknamed by anti-smoking campaigners the "Ashtray of Europe". People can puff away in bars and eateries under certain conditions including that it is confined to separate rooms, but the rules are widely flouted.


  
Austria's previous government passed a law in 2015 that had been set to ban the habit in all bars and restaurants from May 1 this year. But the new government, formed in December, has pledged to scrap the law.

It is a pet project of the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), junior partners in the coalition.
  
But this has come up against stiff resistance. An unofficial online petition organised by Krebshilfe has garnered more than 450,000 signatures, equivalent to more than five percent of the population.
  
On Friday Krebshilfe and the Austrian doctors association applied with the interior ministry to launch an official petition that will open for signature in mid-February.
  
If this attracts more than 100,000 signatures the Austrian parliament will be obliged to debate the issue, which would put pressure on the government to reverse its plans.

https://www.thelocal.at/20180203/austrian-doctors-launch-anti-smoking-petition

Good. I may sign this. A full smoking ban is really needed.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #402 on: February 03, 2018, 01:04:25 pm »

My home state of Salzburg will also have a state election, on April 22.

For this, the state parliament officially called the election on Thursday - which means parties who want to compete can collect signatures between February 8 and March 14.

For parties to appear on the ballot, they either need the signatures of 3 MPs in the state parliament or 600 signatures from eligible voters (100 in each of the 6 districts).

4 parties have the signatures of the 3 MPs and are already on the ballot:

* VP
* SP
* Greens
* FPS (Free Party Salzburg - List Karl Schnell)

6 parties will have to collect signatures from voters:

* FP (the FPS split from the FP in a real bitchfight and took 5 of the 6 state MPs with them)
* NEOS
* SBG (Salzburg Citizen Association - List Hans Mayr, ex-Team Stronach MP)
* FWS (Free Voters Salzburg - List Walter Naderer, ex-Team Stronach MP)
* KP+ (Communist Party + Young Greens)
* CP (Christian Party)

The "List Pilz" won't run in any state election this year while the Pirate Party and the Team Stronach, who did run in 2013, are both defunct by now.

Btw: the current state government is VP+Greens (plus a few former Team Stronach people, who switched sides to the VP).

I'm currently very undecided about my vote in the state election ...

Of the 10 parties who might be on the ballot, only 3 seem electable for me right now:

VP, SP and NEOS. You can forget all the others.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #403 on: February 04, 2018, 02:25:08 am »

VP-FP have agreed on their next big topic:

Increasing the minimum punishments for sex crimes and especially crimes against children, who are in fact way too low. You can walk out of prison after 6 months under current laws for molesting a child for example.

Kurz and Strache want to significantly increase the minimum punishments for these molesters.

The law is being drafted by State Secretary in the Ministry of Interior, Karoline Edtstadler (VP), who was a judge before becoming cabinet member and has vast knowledge of the laws.



It will become law on Jan. 1, 2019.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5365610/Hoehere-Strafen-bei-Gewalt_Edtstadler-richtet-Taskforce-ein

Excellent.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #404 on: February 04, 2018, 02:45:38 am »

A new Kurier/OGM poll shows that Austrians are still quite happy with the VP-FP government:

50% approve
33% disapprove
17% say that their work is comparable with the previous Kern-government

Austrian voters also approve of the new Vienna-SP leader and mayor Michael Ludwig.

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Omega21
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« Reply #405 on: February 04, 2018, 09:58:09 am »

Health and anti-cancer experts, activists and doctors are launching a petition drive to kill VP/FP's plan to scrap the full smoking ban that would become law on May 1:

Quote
The Austrian doctors' association initiated on Friday a petition in favour of a smoking ban in bars and restaurants that would bring the country into line with most of the rest of Europe.

"We are one of the last counties in Europe not to have a smoking ban," said Paul Sevelda, head of cancer prevention and treatment organisation Krebshilfe Austria.
  
"And we know from other countries that a ban will lead to an immediate improvement in public health," he said.
 
The Alpine country is one of Europe's last havens for tobacco lovers and is nicknamed by anti-smoking campaigners the "Ashtray of Europe". People can puff away in bars and eateries under certain conditions including that it is confined to separate rooms, but the rules are widely flouted.


  
Austria's previous government passed a law in 2015 that had been set to ban the habit in all bars and restaurants from May 1 this year. But the new government, formed in December, has pledged to scrap the law.

It is a pet project of the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), junior partners in the coalition.
  
But this has come up against stiff resistance. An unofficial online petition organised by Krebshilfe has garnered more than 450,000 signatures, equivalent to more than five percent of the population.
  
On Friday Krebshilfe and the Austrian doctors association applied with the interior ministry to launch an official petition that will open for signature in mid-February.
  
If this attracts more than 100,000 signatures the Austrian parliament will be obliged to debate the issue, which would put pressure on the government to reverse its plans.

https://www.thelocal.at/20180203/austrian-doctors-launch-anti-smoking-petition

Good. I may sign this. A full smoking ban is really needed.

This would be a step against personal freedom, and the current system should be kept. The current system of non-smoker and smoker areas has the best of both worlds, as the non-smokers are not affected. The "rise in public health" could also be achieved by banning fast-foods, sugar or alcohol, as the same amount of people (if not more) die of heart failure or diseases related to an unhealthy diet or alcohol abuse. It would be stupid to not allow someone to smoke in an area designed for that purpose because it affects no one else other than the smokers who choose to sit there. Or am I missing something here?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #406 on: February 04, 2018, 11:10:03 am »

Health and anti-cancer experts, activists and doctors are launching a petition drive to kill VP/FP's plan to scrap the full smoking ban that would become law on May 1:

Quote
The Austrian doctors' association initiated on Friday a petition in favour of a smoking ban in bars and restaurants that would bring the country into line with most of the rest of Europe.

"We are one of the last counties in Europe not to have a smoking ban," said Paul Sevelda, head of cancer prevention and treatment organisation Krebshilfe Austria.
  
"And we know from other countries that a ban will lead to an immediate improvement in public health," he said.
 
The Alpine country is one of Europe's last havens for tobacco lovers and is nicknamed by anti-smoking campaigners the "Ashtray of Europe". People can puff away in bars and eateries under certain conditions including that it is confined to separate rooms, but the rules are widely flouted.


  
Austria's previous government passed a law in 2015 that had been set to ban the habit in all bars and restaurants from May 1 this year. But the new government, formed in December, has pledged to scrap the law.

It is a pet project of the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), junior partners in the coalition.
  
But this has come up against stiff resistance. An unofficial online petition organised by Krebshilfe has garnered more than 450,000 signatures, equivalent to more than five percent of the population.
  
On Friday Krebshilfe and the Austrian doctors association applied with the interior ministry to launch an official petition that will open for signature in mid-February.
  
If this attracts more than 100,000 signatures the Austrian parliament will be obliged to debate the issue, which would put pressure on the government to reverse its plans.

https://www.thelocal.at/20180203/austrian-doctors-launch-anti-smoking-petition

Good. I may sign this. A full smoking ban is really needed.

This would be a step against personal freedom, and the current system should be kept. The current system of non-smoker and smoker areas has the best of both worlds, as the non-smokers are not affected. The "rise in public health" could also be achieved by banning fast-foods, sugar or alcohol, as the same amount of people (if not more) die of heart failure or diseases related to an unhealthy diet or alcohol abuse. It would be stupid to not allow someone to smoke in an area designed for that purpose because it affects no one else other than the smokers who choose to sit there. Or am I missing something here?

Yes, the employees (= waiters/waitresses) under the current system.

Under the current system with smoking and non-smoking areas, employees also have to serve customers in the smoking areas, even if they are non-smokers themselves. This is a problem, because it violates employee protection rights, especially those female employees who are pregnant and where smoking could cause health problems to the unborn child. This is also a major attack point for opponents of the VP-FP plans if they indeed follow through with their plans.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #407 on: February 06, 2018, 03:25:07 pm »

Detailed official Austrian population numbers for Jan. 1, 2018 were released today and changes during 2017.

Very interesting developments.

I will post a lengthy analysis over the weekend.

Key facts:

While population growth is still high (0.6%), it is down from the 1.3% in 2015 and 0.8% last year and the immigration surplus is becoming more "white" and European again (except for Syrians, which still had a +7.000 immigration surplus last year).

16% of the population is now made up of foreigners, with exactly 50% of them coming from EU/EFTA countries and the other 50% from non-EU/EFTA countries.

20% of the population is foreign-born and 25% have a migrant background.

Regional patterns:



Vienna+big cities+their suburbs are growing fast, while periphery areas are declining. One exception is the district of Braunau am Inn, which is usually also periphery, but has seen a lot of middle-class people from Salzburg move to the countryside recently - because the rents are too damn high in the City of Salzburg and it's only a 30 minute drive away.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #408 on: February 06, 2018, 03:38:09 pm »

A really strange new internal poll for the March 4 state election in Carinthia, conducted for the Carinthia-VP, was released today:

42-44% SP (2013: 37%)
26-28% FP (17%)
16-18% VP (14%)
    5-6% TK (11%)
    3-4% Greens (12%)
    2-3% NEOS (0%)
    1-2% Others (9%)

http://www.krone.at/1632541

The lack of good polls for the Tyrol and Carinthia state elections is annoying.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #409 on: February 08, 2018, 12:56:33 pm »

Some recent political news:

* Interior Minister Kickl (FP) has announced that more countries will be added to the "safe" list in the coming week, meaning that asylum seekers from these countries can be deported there more easily (or at least that their asylum requests are more likely to be denied). Also, he announced that the legal status of an asylum seeker will now be re-evaluated every 1-2 years, rather than every 3 years because a country's situation can change to the better and these people should then be deported back to their home countries if the situation is better there.

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/tuerkis-blaue-koalition-nimmt-fluechtlinge-ins-visier/310.206.816

* The Kickl-Interior Ministry is also stepping up deportations this year: So far, already more planned deportation requests have been issued for 2018 than in the whole year 2017. Last year, about 7.000 people were deported (and another 5.000 left the country voluntarily). In US terms, that would be 265.000 deportations, or 455.000 "removals from the country" (voluntarily+forced).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/asyl-oesterreich-schiebt-ueber-frontex-in-mehr-laender-ab/310.125.530

* Here in Salzburg, 5 parties have signed a "fairness agreement" for the April 22 state election, limiting campaign spending to 1 million per party and limiting the numbers of campaign posters and billboards to be put up in cities. VP, SP, FP, Greens and SBG have signed.

https://derstandard.at/2000073895095/Salzburg-Fuenf-Parteien-unterzeichneten-Fairness-Abkommen

* An FP-city councillor in Lower Austria has called male economic refugees "cowards" and "Untermenschen" (= subhumans), which is a Nazi term. Miriam Rydl attacked them for leaving behind and abandoning wife+children. Now the "funny" thing: She was reprimanded by her local FP-leader for the remarks, a guy who posed with the Nazi-salute a few years back. He's still in the FP and in office, despite of it - saying he only "greeted other people during a football game" ...

https://derstandard.at/2000073825654/Tullner-FPOe-Funktionaerin-postet-ueber-Untermenschen
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #410 on: February 08, 2018, 02:06:07 pm »

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has invited Irish PM Leo Varadkar and Ukrainian President Petro Poroschenko to Vienna today.





Varadkar will also join Kurz and his girlfriend @ the Vienna Opera Ball tonight, as will Somali-Austrian model and women's rights activist Waris Dirie (together they also visited a domestic assault shelter for women today):



« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 02:17:26 am by Tender Branson »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #411 on: February 10, 2018, 02:24:36 am »

A new Research Affairs poll for 24 has the FP losing a point:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kurz-kann-Vorsprung-ausbauen/320999804

Also: With the Tyrol state election coming up in 2 weeks, the FP-frontrunner there was followed by the public ORF TV during campaigning on the street.

At some point, a 86-year old man appeared who started talking about his time in the Hitler Youth and how they learned Zucht und Ordnung (= discipline and order) there. Then he talked about the "immigrant vermin" and "stinking Jews" ... (the FP-frontrunner looked a bit uncomfortable, but kept on nodding).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wahlkampf-Eklat-um-Tiroler-FPOe-Chef-Abwerzger/321178387
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #412 on: February 10, 2018, 03:56:55 am »

Some Green campaign posters/billboards for the Tyrol state election in 2 weeks:

   

Left: "Cut road transit/traffic in half. Are you in ?"

Right: "Environmental fighter. Are you in ?"

   

Left: "Don't bury Tyrol under concrete. Are you in ?"

Right: "Next stop: afforadable housing. Only with you !"

   

Left: "A Tyrol with heart instead of hatred. Only with you !"

Right: "Solar power ahead. Only with you !"


---


Good to see the Greens focusing more on their original issues again, such as environmental protection, traffic and affordable housing.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #413 on: February 10, 2018, 09:31:19 am »

Also: With the Tyrol state election coming up in 2 weeks, the FP-frontrunner there was followed by the public ORF TV during campaigning on the street.

At some point, a 86-year old man appeared who started talking about his time in the Hitler Youth and how they learned Zucht und Ordnung (= discipline and order) there. Then he talked about the "immigrant vermin" and "stinking Jews" ... (the FP-frontrunner looked a bit uncomfortable, but kept on nodding).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wahlkampf-Eklat-um-Tiroler-FPOe-Chef-Abwerzger/321178387

This incident is now backfiring ... on the public ORF broadcaster.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/stinkerte-juden-zib-beitrag-entlastet-fpoe-politiker/310.420.343

It turned out that the ORF did not show the whole encounter between the FP-frontrunner and the 86-year old Nazi-leaning man from the street.

The ORF only showed the part where the FP-frontrunner was listening to what the man had to say, while not showing the part afterwards in which he distanced himself from what the man just said and from any form of anti-semitism. Abwerzger (FP) also explained to the ORF that he later argued with the man about the choice of his [really bad] words.

The ORF then did eventually broadcast the whole encounter ... the next day. That was a really bad foul committed by the ORF in my opinion.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #414 on: February 10, 2018, 11:29:47 am »

I'll continue my poster/billboard series for the Tyrol state election with the campaign of the VP.

They are out with posters with just their popular Governor Gnther Platter and his first and last name on them and no party logo:

 

"Tyrolian"                                                               "Worker"

 

Because the economy is booming in the state with record employment, low unemployment and virtually no debt + Kurz is still popular in federal politics, it's pretty clear that the Platter-VP will have a result above 40%, maybe even getting an absolute majority again (some 46-49% would be needed for that).
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« Reply #415 on: February 10, 2018, 06:32:52 pm »

This sounds exactly like the Llareggub community council election in 2012. Dai Bread topped the poll, ahead of Mrs Ogmore-Pritchard, Evans the Death, Organ Morgan and Mr Waldo (not elected).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #416 on: February 11, 2018, 09:19:13 am »

Strache (FP-leader) in a Serb newspaper:

Quote
"Without a doubt, Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia."

https://derstandard.at/2000074038264/Strache-Kosovo-ist-zweifelsohne-ein-Bestandteil-Serbiens
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #417 on: February 11, 2018, 02:59:31 pm »

As for the April 22 state election here in Salzburg:

http://www.salzburg24.at/umfrage-84-prozent-mit-salzburger-landespolitik-zufrieden/5199648

It's a new (internal) poll conducted for the state VP, showing that 84% (!) of voters here are happy with the state government (VP+Greens).

In a direct vote for Governor, 70% would choose incumbent Wilfried Haslauer Jr. (his main rivals from the SP, FP and Greens are only getting 10% each).

2/3 of voters say that the state has changed for the better over the past 5 years and is moving in the right direction. Only 3% explicitly say it is not.

With these numbers, the VP seems to be heading for a landslide victory and the Greens might get a result above 10% (which is down from their 20%, but still higher than average).

I'm also flirting with voting for the VP in the election (mostly because the government has reduced the debt in the state by 400 million over the past 5 years and the economy is booming), but SP and NEOS also remain as options for me.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #418 on: February 11, 2018, 03:14:27 pm »

Norbert Hofer (FP) and the current federal Minister for Transport and Infrastructure has recently replaced 7 of the 8 members of the BB board of directors (the BB is the Austrian Railway).

Among them are ALL the members from the SP, who have been replaced with FP-leaning board members. The most prominent is Brigitte Ederer, one of the highest-ranking SP politicians in the 1990s and who's now accusing Hofer and the FP of "re-colouring" the railway and of a "coup". Hofer is calling her "whiny".

This is all very interesting because former Chancellor Christian Kern was CEO of the Railway before he became Chancellor, so it's virtually some sort of revenge act against him (the FP has repeatedly attacked Kern for transporting 100.000s of illegal immigrants through Austria by train between 2015-16).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/ederer-fpoe-faerbt-in-unertraeglicher-form-um/310.506.705
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #419 on: February 12, 2018, 12:39:53 pm »

Market polls conducted in several waves after the Oct. 2017 federal election found that FP-voters (who are traditionally very pessimistic about everything) are now optimistic when it comes to politics and personal satisfaction. Currently, SP-voters are the most pessimistic.

Austrians as a whole are generally optimists (49%), rather than pessimists (22%). The rest are "neither".

The VP-voters are the biggest optimists (66%), followed by Greens and NEOS-voters.

The FP-voters were 28-41 before the election, but 46-23 now.

For SP-voters it is 38-32.

Also, western states like Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg etc. have the most optimistic people, while Vienna and eastern states have the highest number of pessimists.

https://derstandard.at/2000074048495/FPOe-Waehler-kommen-dem-Optimismus-der-Restbevoelkerung-naeher
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #420 on: February 13, 2018, 12:25:03 pm »

The FP presented their "history commission" today, which will look into the FP's past (and scandals) ... whatever this means.

Most "experts" on their commission are former or current FP-members, but Strache has also invited the non-partisan and anti-nazi Documentation Centre of Austrian Resistance to participate in the committee (they said they will look into it and are positive about the invitation).

A first report is expected in the fall.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austrias-far-right-party-tries-to-clean-up-pro-nazi-image

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics-freedom-party/austrias-far-right-freedom-party-sets-up-panel-to-examine-its-past-idUSKCN1FX1PN

https://www.doew.at/english

Also today, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Norbert Hofer (FP) has presented plans to invest more than 1 Bio. this year into new roads, highways, new rail lines, tunnel and road repairs, more safety measures etc.



http://www.kleinezeitung.at/wirtschaft/5371071/Neubau-und-Erneuerung_Asfinag-investiert-11-Milliarden-Euro-in
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #421 on: February 14, 2018, 01:19:14 pm »

Austrian GDP was up by 3.1% last year in real terms:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8662991/2-14022018-BP-EN.pdf

That was higher than the Eurozone and EU-28, which both had 2.5% growth - the same as Germany.

---

Also, final polls for the February 25 Tyrol state election and the March 4 Carinthia state election are likely out over the weekend. There have been virtually none so far (only internal and/or old ones).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #422 on: February 14, 2018, 01:35:36 pm »

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz currently campaigning in Carinthia for the March 4 state election, a state where the VP traditionally gets very low results:

https://www.facebook.com/kaerntnervolkspartei/videos/vb.52453892958/10156152554192959/?type=3&theater

Today is Ash Wednesday and usually only the FP is holding "beer tent rallies" on this date. But this year, Kurz and the VP is doing the same. His speech will come soon.
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« Reply #423 on: February 16, 2018, 12:22:21 pm »

With just 1 week until the Tyrol state election, the FP there has filed a lawsuit against "unknown" because these fake-posters have appeared all over the state recently:



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"Eyes open, Brenner border crossing closed. Finally, real border security."

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 46,685
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #424 on: February 16, 2018, 12:29:20 pm »

Chancellor Kurz met his "friend", PM Netanyahu, today at the Munich Security Conference and both said that Israel's current boycott of FP cabinet members might be lifted:



https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/5373389/Kurz-geht-von-Normalisierung-der-Beziehungen-zu-Israel-aus

https://www.thelocal.at/20180214/israeli-mp-urges-his-country-to-drop-its-absurd-boycott-of-austrias-foreign-minister
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