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Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0  (Read 68174 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #425 on: February 16, 2018, 12:43:39 pm »

Minister for Sports and Vice-Chancellor, H.C. Strache (FP), went to South Korea today to visit the "Austria House" at the Olympics.

Matthias Mayer, the latest Austrian Gold medal winner today, held his victory party there with Strache. Mayer also showered Strache with champagne ... Tongue

Mayer is from the state of Carinthia, an FP-stronghold. State elections will take place there in 2 weeks.



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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #426 on: February 17, 2018, 02:05:11 am »

Interior Minister Herbert Kickl (FP) is getting mocked on social media because of this picture:



Kickl was visiting the mounted police force in Munich, Bavaria, recently - because he plans to introduce the same mounted troop in Vienna in 2019.

Also yesterday: The petition drive for the anti-smoking campaign started and the Interior Ministry servers crashed because of the heavy online support for the initiative that the FP opposes.

Comments include:

"I pity the horse."

"If Kickl's parents allowed him to ride a horse more frequently as a child, he probably would have become a much more balanced and happy man as an adult and would maybe have not joined the FP."

---

Kickl riding with Putin:



"Kickl taking care of the servers in the Interior Ministry."



"Please, not again !"



"Horse. Kickl. Functioning servers for the anti-smoking petition."



Kickl as Napoleon:



Kickl on the cover of "Wendy":

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #427 on: February 17, 2018, 03:05:15 am »

According to the new "Profil" magazine poll, the VP-FP government remains very popular:

33% VP
26% FP
26% SP
  7% NEOS
  5% Greens
  2% LiPi
  1% Others

Chancellor vote:

43% Kurz (VP-Incumbent)
21% Kern (SP)
14% Strache (FP)

How would you rate the work of the VP-FP government so far ?

70% Excellent/Good/Fair (2/24/44)
25% Poor/Very Poor (18/7)
  5% Undecided

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5373604/Sonntagsfrage_Umfrage_So-wuerden-die-Oesterreicher-jetzt-waehlen
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #428 on: February 18, 2018, 01:23:58 am »

The FP could make a u-turn on the public smoking ban after all, because the petition drive to keep the ban in place has huge turnout.

In the first days, more than 100.000 people already signed the petition (which the FP opposes).

It would be good to see the FP flip-flop here, because a general smoking ban is really needed (especially when it comes to health and worker rights issues).

http://orf.at/stories/2426937
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #429 on: February 18, 2018, 07:53:16 am »

Probably the last poll for the Tyrol state election next Sunday:



VP: +0.5%
FP: +8%
SP: +2%
Greens: -0.5%
NEOS: +6.5%
Fritz: n.c.
Others: -16.5%

http://www.krone.at/1643664
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #430 on: February 20, 2018, 12:29:43 pm »

Recent developments:

* On Sunday, the ORF debate for the Sunday Tyrol state election took place. Issues debated included the economy, education, affordable housing, traffic and transit.

* Ahead of the election, the "Falter" newspaper is reporting about a new Nazi textbook from the fraternity of an aide to Norbert Hofer.

* On Friday, the early-voting day for the March 4 Carinthia state election will take place.

* The FP is now open to a possible binding referendum on the smoking ban (but only after 2021, when VP/FP wants to introduce a direct-democracy system). In the meantime, VP/FP plan to kill the smoking-ban that was expected to be enforced from May 1st and was agreed to by SPVP.
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Omega21
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« Reply #431 on: February 21, 2018, 11:09:48 am »

* The FP is now open to a possible binding referendum on the smoking ban (but only after 2021, when VP/FP wants to introduce a direct-democracy system). In the meantime, VP/FP plan to kill the smoking-ban that was expected to be enforced from May 1st and was agreed to by SPVP.

That's the right way to do it. Would love to see a direct-democracy system as soon as possible.

In your opinion, should they hold a referendum or should they introduce the ban immediately as a result of the signatures that were gather/are being gathered?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #432 on: February 21, 2018, 01:46:47 pm »

* The FP is now open to a possible binding referendum on the smoking ban (but only after 2021, when VP/FP wants to introduce a direct-democracy system). In the meantime, VP/FP plan to kill the smoking-ban that was expected to be enforced from May 1st and was agreed to by SPVP.

That's the right way to do it. Would love to see a direct-democracy system as soon as possible.

In your opinion, should they hold a referendum or should they introduce the ban immediately as a result of the signatures that were gather/are being gathered?

SPVP already agreed on the general smoking ban (which was scheduled to become law on May 1, 2018).

So of course, VP/FP should keep it in place. The massive amount of signatures collected right now just underscores the importance and support of the smoking ban by the public.

IMO, there's no need for a costly referendum because all the polls show that the public strongly supports the smoking ban (with a 2/3 majority). It's just the FP who thinks it's cool to be against the ban, now that they are in government.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #433 on: February 21, 2018, 01:59:57 pm »

The poster "Georg Ebner" recently made this map + chart here for the 2017 federal election, which shows the combined Center-Right 2013 vs. the combined Center-Right in 2017 and the swings in each district.

As you can see from the map, the Austrian Right gained some 3.8 points between 2013 and 2017.

The increase was especially big in my district (Zell am See), Carinthia and the East - while some inner-city districts in Vienna + the city of Graz actually saw a decline:




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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #434 on: February 21, 2018, 02:24:11 pm »

VP-FP has agreed on a tough new surveillance package today (something the FP opposed before the election):

Quote
Vienna (dpa) - Austrian police will get broad powers to monitor roads, public transport and online communications, according to a package of security measures planned by the right-wing government.

On Wednesday, the coalition cabinet between conservatives and the far right agreed to the policies that are a key part of its law-and-order agenda.

According to the plan, which still has to pass parliament, authorities will get access to video surveillance of private companies that perform public services, such as transport or aviation.

The government also wants to expand the use of road surveillance systems that register cars and their number plates.

In addition, police are to gain access to messenger services such as WhatsApp and Skype when they are investigating serious crimes and terrorism cases, by installing eavesdropping software.

While the EU Court of Justice has annulled an EU directive on mandatory storage of telecommunications data, the Austrian government has come up with an alternative named "quick freeze."

Authorities would be able to order telecommunication firms to store user data for up to one year, in order to investigate certain types of crimes.

Interior Minister Herbert Kickl and Justice Minister Josef Moser told reporters that the measures would not amount to mass surveillance, but are necessary to respond to developments in terrorism and serious crime.

"The criminals are upgrading," Kickl said.

http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/austrian-law-and-order-cabinet-to-broaden-public-online-surveillance_628339.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #435 on: February 21, 2018, 02:38:20 pm »

The Austrian Constitutional Court will become significantly more right-leaning:

https://derstandard.at/2000074741058/Brandstetter-bestellt-und-bisweilen-befangen

Recently, 3 of the 14 members have retired because of age-limits (70 years) including the President of the Court.

Of the 3 outgoing members, 2 were appointed by the SP and 1 by the VP - meaning the court split down 7/7 between SP and VP.

With the retirements, the FP can appoint 2 new judges and the VP 1 - meaning the new composition will be 7 VP, 5 SP and 2 FP, or 9/5 for the Right.



Brigitte Bierlein (VP-appointed) will become the new Court President, but only until next year when she'll also retire because of the age limit.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #436 on: February 22, 2018, 02:43:46 pm »

Probably the final poll for the Carinthia state election on March 4, but the good thing is that it was conducted by OGM (one of the best pollsters):



Compared with the actual 2013 state election result (and historical results):



http://www.kleinezeitung.at/kaernten/5376175/Kaernten-waehlt_Umfrage-zur-Landtagswahl-sieht-drei-Sieger

Quite a good result for the SP, if true.

Underwhelming results for the FP and the VP (even though they are gaining).

The Greens are heading for total destruction there, which might be a reason for the good SP-result.

The remnants of the Team Stronach might actually get back into the state parliament, because Kfer is doing a fairly good job down there and 10% would vote for him in a direct vote for Governor.

NEOS might or might not get in, will be interesting.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #437 on: February 23, 2018, 12:50:18 pm »

2 new federal polls out today and both show the FP dropping a bit (they actually polled around 28% during the Christmas holidays, but seem to have taken a small hit because of the Nazi textbook scandal and the current smoking ban petition drive, which the FP opposes but the public strongly supports):

ATV Austria Trend:



Chancellor vote:



Research Affairs/24:



Chancellor vote:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Polit-Umfrage-Talfahrt-fuer-Strache/323162470
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #438 on: February 23, 2018, 01:14:38 pm »

Currently, everyone is attacking the FP on the smoking issue and direct democracy.

Why ?

Before the election, the FP was always demanding more direct democracy. Now that they are in government and the petition drive for the smoking ban is highly popular (to the agony of the FP), they are suddenly against more immediate direct democracy ...

And FP-leader Strache seems to change his mind every other day now: Yesterday, he was for a binding referendum on the smoking ban in 2021, today he said that OF COURSE he favours referendums on a whole package of issues on the same day (but that the VP is against it).

Issues that Strache now wants to hold a mega referendum on include CETA/TTIP, the abolition of fees to fund the public ORF broadcaster (which he recently kinda attacked as a fake news broadcaster and producer of lies) or the "debt union" - whatever this means. I guess it means that Strache wants Austria to stop being a net-contributor to the EU budget.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/strache-will-ganzes-paket-volksabstimmungen-oevp-sei-dagegen/311.853.173
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #439 on: February 24, 2018, 02:11:48 am »

Only some 33.000 absentee ballots have been requested by voters for the Tyrol state election tomorrow:

https://www.dolomitenstadt.at/2018/02/23/wahlkarten-anzahl-als-indiz-fuer-niedrige-wahlbeteilung

That's only half the number that was issued for the federal election last year, when turnout was 80%, but slightly up from the numbers in the 2013 state election, when turnout was just 61%.

So, the low number points to another low turnout state election tomorrow and there are 2 main reasons for it:

* Contrary to the federal election, it is already guaranteed that the VP will dominate tomorrow and that Gnther Platter will remain Governor.

* Also contrary to the federal election, the mood by voters in the state of Tyrol on the economy, labour market, finances and government work is excellent, so why bother to vote ? It seems voters are much more likely to turn out when the government sucks and there's an open race.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #440 on: February 24, 2018, 06:24:16 am »

Here's a preview for the Tyrol state election tomorrow:

* The current government there is VP-Greens and their work is rated as "good" by voters. It is likely that the VP will profit most from their good government work, as well as the solid national climate for the VP right now, whereas the Greens are likely to perform above the Austrian average for a Green party - yet remain below their 2013 results - because of the bad national climate. The incumbent Governor Gnther Platter will of course remain Governor for the next 5 years  - and assuming the VP doesn't get an absolute majority on their own tomorrow - can pick and choose their coalition partner.



* A total of 537.273 people are eligible to vote. Polls open at 7am and close at 5pm local time. A first projection by ORF/SORA will come around 5-10 minutes later. All ballots will be counted in the evening, even all postal ballots. A final result is likely at around 8pm.

* 8 parties are running this time: VP, SP, Greens, FP, Fritz, NEOS, Impuls and Family.

* There are 6 parties from 2013, which are not on the ballot any longer: Vorwrts Tirol, Brgerklub Tirol, Team Stronach, Fr Tirol, KP and the Pirate Party. Which means some 20% are up for grabs.

Here are the results from 2013:



And historical results:



http://orf.at/wahl/desktop/story/2896319
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #441 on: February 24, 2018, 11:15:58 am »

FP-leader H.C. Strache has apologized to Armin Wolf, a main journalist at the public broadcaster ORF.

Recently, Strache posted on Facebook using a picture of Wolf: "ORF - the place where news become lies." (... though on top he wrote "Satire").

Wolf threatened to sue Strache in court for his posting.

Meanwhile the ORF controversy, a new Nazi-textbook scandal involving an aide of Norbert Hofer and the smoking back-and-forth is putting Strache and the FP under significant pressure:

Today, Strache lowered expectations for the Tyrol state election tomorrow - saying "he would already be happy with 15%". Which would be 5% worse than the FP's all-time record in a state election under Jrg Haider in 1999.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #442 on: February 25, 2018, 01:19:12 am »

Polls are open for the Tyrol state election !
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Mazda
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« Reply #443 on: February 25, 2018, 01:50:41 am »

Impossible not to note the continued absence of the Liste Pilz in these Land elections. Have they even done anything of interest in the Nationalrat since Pilz's resignation?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #444 on: February 25, 2018, 03:41:54 am »

Impossible not to note the continued absence of the Liste Pilz in these Land elections. Have they even done anything of interest in the Nationalrat since Pilz's resignation?

LiPi won't run in any of the state elections this year, because of a lack of organisation and money.

Maybe in the Vorarlberg election next year, the EU election and definitely in the Vienna election in 2020.

As for their "work" in parliament, it should be noted that the Nationalrat only had one meeting so far this year, but from what I have read they sent out press releases for the legalisation of medical pot to relieve pain, are in favour of the current smoking-ban petition drive, call for a strict investigation into far-right fraternities linked to the FP and are boycotting the hearings for the 2 new Constitutional Court nominees from the FP.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #445 on: February 25, 2018, 03:58:27 am »

Here is the ballot for the Tyrol state election today:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #446 on: February 25, 2018, 07:08:24 am »

4 hours until polls close.

The FP is lowering expectations every day now ... today, they said that a result of 13% would be "really good".

Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #447 on: February 25, 2018, 09:43:49 am »

Polls close in slightly over an hour (in fact, most polls in small towns have already closed).

No rumours so far, not even on Twitter.

It seems the poll workers are following the embargo procedures really carefully since the Presidential election was overturned ...

You can watch the first projection live here at 5pm:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/ZIB-Spezial/13952383
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #448 on: February 25, 2018, 10:50:09 am »

Polls in Tyrol close in 10 minutes !

ATV will also have a projection on their own, by ARGE Wahlen (not sure if their stream works abroad though).

https://atv.at/livestream

ORF will use SORA as their "exit pollster" (and they usually have the more accurate projection).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #449 on: February 25, 2018, 11:09:30 am »

17:00 - First Projection for Tyrol (ORF/SORA):

43.5% VP
17.1% SP
16.3% FP
10.7% Greens
  5.4% Fritz
  5.3% NEOS
  1.1% Family
  0.5% Impuls

17:00 - First Projection for Tyrol (ATV/ARGE):

43.9% VP
17.1% SP
15.6% FP
11.0% Greens
  5.4% Fritz
  5.3% NEOS
  1.7% Others

Actual 2013 result:

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