Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

New ORF/SORA projection (=> ÖVP/SPÖ gaining a bit, FPÖ/Greens dropping a bit):

[Tender Branson]

I think that the FPÖ is overrated in these first projections right now ...

Innsbruck (the capital city) will be really bad for them and probably lower their statewide result to around 15% at the end of the day.

[Tender Branson]

I also think that FRITZ could still be kicked out, if Innsbruck doesn't deliver for them.

NEOS should get a decent result there, so they will get in.

[Mike88]

It seems that OVP has a chance of gaining an overall majority according to the exit polls, right Tender?

[Tender Branson]

Only 9 of the 279 cities remain uncounted.

In Kufstein, a large city that just came in, the FPÖ only gained 0.1% compared with 2013.

[Tender Branson]

It seems that OVP has a chance of gaining an overall majority according to the exit polls, right Tender?

Nope.

Not even if FRITZ gets kicked out of the state parliament.

[Mike88]

It seems that OVP has a chance of gaining an overall majority according to the exit polls, right Tender?

Nope.

Not even if FRITZ gets kicked out of the state parliament.

Hmmm... So what coalition do you think will happen? OVP-Grune, OVP-FPO, OVP-SPO or OVP-NEOS?

[Tender Branson]

It seems that OVP has a chance of gaining an overall majority according to the exit polls, right Tender?

Nope.

Not even if FRITZ gets kicked out of the state parliament.

Hmmm... So what coalition do you think will happen? OVP-Grune, OVP-FPO, OVP-SPO or OVP-NEOS?

A continuation of ÖVP-Greens is the most likely scenario.

Governor Platter and Green-leader Felipe get along great and Platter will likely not opt for the FPÖ or NEOS (too risky, unstable) or the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

All but 2 cities counted (the capital and largest city Innsbruck and a bigger suburb city, Hall).

Also, the result of Lienz - another large city in East Tyrol: FPÖ only gains 1.5%

This is bad news for their chances in Innsbruck.

The FPÖ will definitely end at only 15% statewide, or even slightly below.

[Tender Branson]

Only Innsbruck left now (represents about 20% of all votes cast).

I expect solid gains for the SPÖ in Innsbruck, small gains for the ÖVP, a slight loss for the Greens and a stagnation to a 1%-gain for the FPÖ there. NEOS should get some 8% there.

The final statewide result would then be around:

44.2% ÖVP
17.5% SPÖ
15.0% FPÖ
10.5% Greens
  5.5% NEOS
  5.0% Fritz
  2.3% Others

[Tender Branson]

Clickable maps here.

Click on Gemeinden (= cities) and on Hochburgen (strongholds) and select a party.

The SPÖ has significant gains in the Innsbruck suburbs.

I think they will gain some 6-10% in Innsbruck and therefore move statewide to around 18%.

[Tender Branson]

The capital Innsbruck has just came in ... and surprisingly, the FPÖ gained almost 4% there.

https://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/landtagswahl_2018/gemeinden/innsbruck.html

Final statewide result:

https://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/landtagswahl_2018/index.html

[Tender Branson]

From the SORA election day survey:

Which parties do Tyrol voters want in the next government ?



Should be interesting who Platter picks as new coalition partner ... still the Greens, or the SPÖ ?

[Tender Branson]

SORA's election day survey:

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2018_LTW-Tir_Wahlanalyse-Grafiken.pdf

And this piece is particularly interesting:



Men without a university-qualifying high-school degree: 14% SPÖ+Greens+NEOS, 30% FPÖ

Women with a university-qualifying high-school degree: 68% SPÖ+Greens+NEOS, 1% FPÖ

[windjammer]

SORA's election day survey:

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2018_LTW-Tir_Wahlanalyse-Grafiken.pdf

And this piece is particularly interesting:



Men without a university-qualifying high-school degree: 14% SPÖ+Greens+NEOS, 30% FPÖ

Women with a university-qualifying high-school degree: 68% SPÖ+Greens+NEOS, 1% FPÖ

Woooow, the FPO is dead long term.

The olds are extremely FPO?

[Tender Branson]

Woooow, the FPO is dead long term.

The olds are extremely FPO?

No, it's the other way around: degressive support. The older the voters, the lower the FPÖ-share.

See page 7+8.

[Tender Branson]

Pictures from the election evening:

ÖVP:





SPÖ:



FPÖ:



Greens:



NEOS:



More results maps by town (2018 vs. 2013):



Vote by gender:



Vote by age:

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-voters are split on who they want as next coalition partner:



Also funny that 100% of ÖVP-voters want the ÖVP in the next government. Well, not really.

[rob in cal]

  Just love the huge contrast among the Greens and FPO by demographics.  Funny though that when it comes to young people they both do well.

[Tender Branson]

According to the SORA election day survey, turnout was highest among young voters and lowest among old voters.



74% of young voters (16-29) voted today, but only 49% of old voters (60+).

Old voters tend to strongly support the ÖVP and are extremely happy with government work and the economy in the state and therefore stayed home.

On the other hand, the big turnout among young voters explains the better than expected Green and SPÖ result.

[Mazda]

Polls close in slightly over an hour (in fact, most polls in small towns have already closed).

No rumours so far, not even on Twitter.

It seems the poll workers are following the embargo procedures really carefully since the Presidential election was overturned ...

You can watch the first projection live here at 5pm:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/ZIB-Spezial/13952383

Thanks for the response on Pilz.

Why do some polling stations close earlier than others? That seems like an odd system.

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in slightly over an hour (in fact, most polls in small towns have already closed).

No rumours so far, not even on Twitter.

It seems the poll workers are following the embargo procedures really carefully since the Presidential election was overturned ...

You can watch the first projection live here at 5pm:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/ZIB-Spezial/13952383

Thanks for the response on Pilz.

Why do some polling stations close earlier than others? That seems like an odd system.

Cities can set their own opening an closing times, but all have to close at 5pm.

Small town voters mostly vote between 8am and 1pm, so for the officials there it's a waste of time to keep polls open longer.

[Tender Branson]

With the Tyrol election done, the next state election is already ahead:

Carinthia on Sunday.

Turnout is projected to be much higher there compared with the Tyrol state election (75% vs. 60%), because the Tyrol election was already a done deal.

The Carinthia election is the first after the abolition of the Proporz-system there, which means a coalition has to be formed for the first time - rather than all parties above 10% being automatically in the state government.

Also, the latest OGM poll shows many outcomes are possible on Sunday:

* an absolute SPÖ-majority
* a slight majority for FPÖVP, but only if no small party crosses the 5% threshold
* SPÖ-ÖVP
* SPÖ-FPÖ
* SPÖ-TK
* SPÖ-Greens (if they beat the polls like in recent elections)

The SPÖ-Carinthia is in a very comfortable position right now, just like Platter and the ÖVP is in Tyrol now.

They can pick and choose whoever they want.

It is also the first election after Jörg Haider/FPÖ's HYPO bank debacle and followup:

Carinthia's HYPO bank was a bloated beast at around 2010, piling up a lot of bad loans and the Austrian state had to bail Carinthia out because of it. The HYPO was transformed into the HETA bad bank and was winded down in the past years. This pushed up Carinthia's debt a lot, but was of course the right thing to do (by the new SPÖ-ÖVP-Green government). Meanwhile, under the leadership of Governor Peter Kaiser (SPÖ), Carinthia has a balanced budget again and is already paying down the massive debt.

An important election topic is missing in the state and while Carinthia is struggling with rural population loss and outmigration of young people to the bigger cities, Graz and Vienna - the SPÖ-led government has still managed to bring more investments into the state and the economy is generally good. Unemployment is high, but falling.

I think the election will just show Carinthia reverting back to its old roots of being a strong Social Democratic state and the outcome will likely be similar (more-or-less) to the 1989 state election.

[Tender Branson]

This week, ÖVP-FPÖ will introduce their motion to kill the smoking ban in parliament:

http://orf.at/stories/2427991/2427992

The total smoking ban was passed by the previous SPÖVP government and would take effect on May 1.

Despite a very popular petition drive to go ahead with the ban on May 1 (more than 400.000 signatures were collect in the past 2 weeks), ÖVP-FPÖ are simply ignoring this, saying that "this is what we have agreed to in our coalition contract".

While the FPÖ fully supports it, the ÖVP is mixed on this issue (or even leaning against): many Governors and politicians from the ÖVP have recently spoken out in favour of the total smoking ban. But because of their coalition contract, they will still go ahead and kill it ...

A final parliamentary vote is expected in mid-April.

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Public Opinion Strategies) for the April 22 Salzburg state election here:

37% ÖVP (+8%)
23% FPÖ (+6%)
21% SPÖ (-3%)
  9% Greens (-11%)
  7% NEOS (+7%)
  1% FPS (+1%)
  1% SBG (+1%)
  1% Others (-9%)

http://www.krone.at/1650704

The FPÖ-Salzburg has the only female state party leader and the youngest as well. Plus, she's only in office for about a year, but has apparently impressed Strache and Hofer so much that she was also elected to the Austrian parliament and became the FPÖ's federal general secretary.