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Tender Branson
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« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2017, 03:30:22 AM »

The Austrian Left is in full destruction mode right now - whereas ÖVP and FPÖ are sailing through their coalition talks in harmony ...

Another fact about the Greens, who are not represented in parliament any longer and will lose millions of € in annual public funding because of that:

The Greens are 5 Mio. € in debt after the election campaigns last year (President) and this year and filed a bankrupcy and reconstruction request at their main bank, who offered them loans in the past.

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5313181/Gruene-legen-der-Bank-einen-Sanierungsplan-vor

The Green-sponsored whistleblowing page "Stop the Right !" has been shut down as well, because the Greens are virtually bankrupt.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2017, 03:32:20 AM »

I think the next polls will be something like ...

33% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
28% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  1% Pilz
  1% Greens
  1% Others

Tongue
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Zinneke
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« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2017, 03:56:09 AM »

What is the likelihood of a party to right of FPÖ gaining traction during a protracted ÖVP-FPÖ government?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #53 on: November 05, 2017, 07:16:04 AM »

What is the likelihood of a party to right of FPÖ gaining traction during a protracted ÖVP-FPÖ government?

There is no room for a party to the right of the FPÖ. A party like this would likely be subject to a ban under the anti-Nazi law.

Besides, don't expect ÖVP-FPÖ to be unsuccessful - just because the previous coalition between 2000-2006 was. The new government might become popular (like the current state coalition in Upper Austria) and both parties might be relatively stable in the next elections, or only lose slightly.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #54 on: November 05, 2017, 07:58:52 AM »

This weekend was the first one really off from work for the coalition parties ÖVP and FPÖ.

Coalition talks will resume tomorrow with the steering group (Kurz, Strache and others) and several cluster groups:

* Interior Ministry/Security/Police
* Innovation and IT
* Pensions
* Women
* Family and Youth
* Consumer Protection and Social Issues

From Tuesday to Friday, talks involving the other groups (25 in total) will take place.

http://derstandard.at/2000067221958/OeVP-und-FPOe-verhandeln-am-Montag-im-Geheimen-weiter
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #55 on: November 05, 2017, 11:05:33 AM »

The City of Salzburg will have a mayoral by-election in 3 weeks, with a likely runoff 2 weeks later.

The current mayor, Heinz Schaden (SPÖ), retired after 18 years in office. He's leaving the city with a significantly reduced debt burden, which is quite an achievement for a Social Democrat (who usually pile up debts). In fact, Salzburg is now one of the big cities with the lowest debts in Austria.

Here's a recent poll from GMK for the "City Paper" (thanks to Georg Ebner, who lives in Salzburg City and noticed it):



Runoff:



The poll was conducted after the federal election (Oct. 24-25).

https://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg-stadt/politik/buergermeisterwahl-in-der-stadt-salzburg-in-der-stichwahl-holt-bernhard-auinger-auf-d2298583.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #56 on: November 05, 2017, 12:11:14 PM »

I looked into some historical FPÖ patterns/comparisons today - especially patterns for 1999 vs. 2017, because the nationwide results were about the same (26.9 vs. 26.0):

* in 1999, the FPÖ did extremely well in the big cities - getting an even higher share than nationwide. But turnout in the cities was way below average.

* in 2017 though, the FPÖ did badly in the cities - getting below average results compared with the national result. Turnout was very high in the cities this time (75-78%, vs. 60-65% in 1999).

So, the rising turnout in the cities definitely helped to keep the FPÖ down.

But there are areas in which the FPÖ did much better this time compared with 1999, even in urban areas: examples are the population-rich and fast-growing Vienna suburbs north of the Danube and the working-class districts in Vienna's South. Despite rising turnout, the FPÖ gained ground there. The same in Burgenland.

Another area in which the FPÖ gained is the Waldviertel in Lower Austria south to the Czech border, historically a big ÖVP stronghold. Maybe this has to do with the retirement of Erwin Pröll, but this huge swing to the FPÖ is very odd.

On the other hand, the FPÖ lost a lot of ground in Vorarlberg and Tyrol - where turnout also increased by a lot. In Carinthia, they also lost (but the FPÖ got a high-level result in Haider's home state back in 1999) and they are also above average there now.

I asked Georg Ebner to create a map for 1999 => 2017 swings for the FPÖ by district and for turnout. This should be fun.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2017, 12:20:24 PM »

Here are the FPÖ results maps for 2017:

http://visual.apa.at/election/index.map.html

(go to Hochburg, select FPÖ and click on Bezirke on top of the map)

For 1999 and FPÖ (or other results), go here:

http://orf.at/wahlergebnisse/nr13/daten/#analyse-ab-1994/fpoe

(choose 1999 below the map)

---

For turnout, choose (Wahl)beteiligung in the maps.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #58 on: November 05, 2017, 03:20:07 PM »

Justin Trudeau: "I disagree with (Kurz) even more than I think I disagree with President Trump."
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBCPolitics/status/926116702877822983

I don’t really see where he’s coming from. Kurz’s environmental policies alone put him way above Trump for me, not to mention he wouldn’t support an Auxit like Trump presumably would.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2017, 03:53:54 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2017, 04:11:45 PM by coloniac »

What is the likelihood of a party to right of FPÖ gaining traction during a protracted ÖVP-FPÖ government?

There is no room for a party to the right of the FPÖ. A party like this would likely be subject to a ban under the anti-Nazi law.

Besides, don't expect ÖVP-FPÖ to be unsuccessful - just because the previous coalition between 2000-2006 was. The new government might become popular (like the current state coalition in Upper Austria) and both parties might be relatively stable in the next elections, or only lose slightly.

I'm not saying it's going to be unpopular, I'm just wondering if, as is precedent in the Austrian far right, someone might launch their own movement looking to outflank the FPÖ.

Also will there be FPÖ voters disappointed with the protracted governments new economic policies?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2017, 06:28:52 PM »

Justin Trudeau: "I disagree with (Kurz) even more than I think I disagree with President Trump."
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBCPolitics/status/926116702877822983

I don’t really see where he’s coming from. Kurz’s environmental policies alone put him way above Trump for me, not to mention he wouldn’t support an Auxit like Trump presumably would.

I can think of only two where he is more conservative which are immigration and taxes.  On taxes yes Trudeau thinks the rich should pay more, but he needs to remember Austria's top marginal rate is 55% which is higher than any province in Canada and for those making between 30,000 Euros to 60,000 Euros (the approximate conversion rate for those who got the tax cut here in Canada), their rates are 10-15% higher than Canada.  In Canada, taxes are 31% of GDP while Austria is 43% and Kurz wants to drop it to 40% so even under Kurz Austria will still be a higher taxed country.

That being said its probably immigration as he did take a hard line on it, but I suspect if Canada saw an influx of refugees on the same level as Austria did, you would see a similar backlash where such policy would sell well here.  In fact Liberals own internal memos have expressed concerns if the illegal border crossings into Quebec continue, it could hurt the party next election.  EU Citizens will still continue to enjoy the right to live and work in Austria as it will remain a member and for non-EU citizens it may be stricter, but unlike Canada which doesn't allow free mobility with any country, we have greater needs whereas Austria can meet its requirements largely from EU citizens.  If both had a goal of 1% of population for immigration, Austria can largely get this just from movement within the EU thus having as open an immigration system for non-EU citizens would be unsustainable whereas since Canada doesn't have free mobility with any country that is why we need more open immigration system.  If NAFTA had free mobility of labour, I suspect you would see our immigration levels cut.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #61 on: November 07, 2017, 12:27:08 PM »

What is the likelihood of a party to right of FPÖ gaining traction during a protracted ÖVP-FPÖ government?

There is no room for a party to the right of the FPÖ. A party like this would likely be subject to a ban under the anti-Nazi law.

Besides, don't expect ÖVP-FPÖ to be unsuccessful - just because the previous coalition between 2000-2006 was. The new government might become popular (like the current state coalition in Upper Austria) and both parties might be relatively stable in the next elections, or only lose slightly.

I'm not saying it's going to be unpopular, I'm just wondering if, as is precedent in the Austrian far right, someone might launch their own movement looking to outflank the FPÖ.

Also will there be FPÖ voters disappointed with the protracted governments new economic policies?

Karl Schnell did. In this election actually. He got 0.1% of the vote Austria-wide. There is simply no alternative to the FPÖ right now, the party is currently near their peak performance and their voters are happy that they are in the government soon. If their voters will become disappointed or not will depend on the policies that ÖVP/FPÖ will implement. Because the FPÖ's base are middle-agged, working people between the ages of 20 and 60, it is likely that the ÖVP and FPÖ will push for a tax cut first. If successful, they could come out relatively unscathed from their government (compared with the one last time). We'll see.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #62 on: November 07, 2017, 12:46:17 PM »

Here is the new seat chart of the parliament, which will have its opening session on Thursday:



Meanwhile, the Presidents (plus Vice-Presidents) are official:

ÖVP: Elisabeth Köstinger will become President of the Parliament (= Speaker)
SPÖ: Doris Bures (will be downgraded from Speaker to 2nd President)
FPÖ: Norbert Hofer (will remain 3rd President)

Köstinger and Hofer are also likely to become future cabinet members in the ÖVP-FPÖ government, so their posts are only interim right now. They are going to replaced by someone else if they take the cabinet position.

Also: Today, the coalition talks resumed and ÖVP/FPÖ took a closer look at the budgetary situation again. It seems they are weighing scrapping some of the policies that were passed by SPÖ/ÖVP earlier this year and which will become budget-relevant/increasing next year.

They could also agree on a mandatory budgetary cap for each Ministry, slashing spending by 5-10% across the board, with each cabinet member being responsible to limit spending accordingly in their portfolio. This was recently done by ÖVP-FPÖ in Upper Austria, where they passed a constitutional deficit and debt brake. SPÖ and Greens complained, but they are still bound to it.

The experts from the Finance Ministry found a "gap" of 3.8 Bio. € in the budget for next year, with most of it resulting from the policies that were passed earlier this year. ÖVP/FPÖ for example could scrap the "job bonus" for companies hiring more employees (because the economy is already doing well and adding jobs, so a state subsidy would no longer be needed). If they also agree on a tax cut worth 6 Bio. € annually, they would have to find ways to balance the budget even further and ways to counter-finance it (only a part of the tax-cut will finance itself via higher consumption tax revenues etc).

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5316230/Regierungsgespraeche_Milliardenteures-Sparpaket-droht
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #63 on: November 08, 2017, 02:18:11 PM »

The newly elected parliament will convene tomorrow and newly elected members will be sworn in (just like all others).

86 of the 183 members are first-timers (47%).

Today, all parties released their parliamentary group leaders:

* ÖVP: Sebastian Kurz
* SPÖ: Christian Kern
* FPÖ: H.C. Strache
* NEOS: Matthias Strolz
* Pilz: Peter Kolba

Kurz and Strache will become future cabinet members of course (Chancellor, Vice-Chancellor and Interior Minister) and will be replaced as parliamentary group leaders by other people.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #64 on: November 08, 2017, 03:58:02 PM »

I was wondering if consumption taxes are less controversial in mainland Europe as I know the new Dutch government is doing the same.  Certainly here in Canada and I think the US is similar, sales taxes seem to generate the most opposition when increased even more so than income taxes.  Mind you in Europe sales taxes are built into prices so people don't notice them whereas here in Canada they are added on separately so you notice it as prices posted exclude sales taxes.  As for income tax cuts, what brackets do you think they will go after as it seems 30% and 40% respectively kick in at a relatively low rate.  Also do you think the top rate will fall below 50% as right now it is 55% or would that be too big a hole in the budget and not a lot of votes to gain either.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #65 on: November 09, 2017, 12:08:41 AM »

I was wondering if consumption taxes are less controversial in mainland Europe as I know the new Dutch government is doing the same.  Certainly here in Canada and I think the US is similar, sales taxes seem to generate the most opposition when increased even more so than income taxes.  Mind you in Europe sales taxes are built into prices so people don't notice them whereas here in Canada they are added on separately so you notice it as prices posted exclude sales taxes.  As for income tax cuts, what brackets do you think they will go after as it seems 30% and 40% respectively kick in at a relatively low rate.  Also do you think the top rate will fall below 50% as right now it is 55% or would that be too big a hole in the budget and not a lot of votes to gain either.

Our VAT is already quite high at 20%, so I guess people would be strongly opposed to raising it.

Austria doesn't really have a revenue problem, but a spending problem. 3 billion € alone could be cut by slashing welfare payments for foreigners and other spending for (illegal) immigrants such as German courses and other labour market integration measures. That is roughly equivalent to our current deficit. I also think that the FPÖ will take the role of the SPÖ and push for tax cuts among lower-income/working class voters and the ÖVP for higher-income earners. Maybe the 55% tax rate will be scrapped and lowered to 50% though, but it seems a compromise will involve a fair deal for every income group.

Also, it seems that ÖVP and FPÖ have agreed to roll back the public smoking ban - which is a victory for the restaurant and bar industry. Currently, every restaurant has to set up a smoking area, which is closed off from the non-smoking area. Business owners complained about fewer guests and bureaucratic hurdles. Under the new plans, every restaurant owner can decide on their own if they want to allow smoking or not (like it was the case until a few years ago).
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #66 on: November 09, 2017, 04:49:01 AM »

sorry for the OT
the public smoking ban is the one maybe the only one good law that italian parliament did in the last 20 years
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #67 on: November 09, 2017, 11:42:25 AM »

The new parliament and the MPs were sworn in today.

In fact, only 182 of 183 were sworn in - because one FPÖ representative was sick.

Picture of the swearing-in ceremony and the new parliamentary presidents (in fact, Elisabeth Köstinger from the ÖVP is the third woman in a row to become parliamentary president. In the secret vote, Norbert Hofer from the FPÖ actually received the most votes though):



















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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #68 on: November 09, 2017, 12:15:32 PM »

The coming ÖVP-FPÖ coalition gets a big mandate from voters, according to the new Ö24/Research-Affairs poll (conducted Nov. 7-9):

"Do you approve or disapprove of the likely future coalition made up of ÖVP/FPÖ ?"



"How would you vote today ?"



"Who would be your pick as Chancellor ?"



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-65-fuer-Tuerkis-Blau-Pilz-fliegt/307966211
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #69 on: November 09, 2017, 12:28:23 PM »

The new parliament and the MPs were sworn in today.

It seems the FPÖ is becoming saner:

Austrian far right ditches 'Nazi' flower for Edelweiss

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https://www.thelocal.at/20171109/austrian-far-right-ditches-nazi-flower-for-edelweiss
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DavidB.
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« Reply #70 on: November 09, 2017, 12:57:46 PM »

Also, it seems that ÖVP and FPÖ have agreed to roll back the public smoking ban - which is a victory for the restaurant and bar industry. Currently, every restaurant has to set up a smoking area, which is closed off from the non-smoking area. Business owners complained about fewer guests and bureaucratic hurdles. Under the new plans, every restaurant owner can decide on their own if they want to allow smoking or not (like it was the case until a few years ago).
Disgusting. Such a step back.
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Omega21
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« Reply #71 on: November 09, 2017, 09:23:56 PM »

Also, it seems that ÖVP and FPÖ have agreed to roll back the public smoking ban - which is a victory for the restaurant and bar industry. Currently, every restaurant has to set up a smoking area, which is closed off from the non-smoking area. Business owners complained about fewer guests and bureaucratic hurdles. Under the new plans, every restaurant owner can decide on their own if they want to allow smoking or not (like it was the case until a few years ago).
Disgusting. Such a step back.
Not really, most restaurants will keep the areas anyway. They are already built, so they are not going to tear them down.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #72 on: November 09, 2017, 11:58:12 PM »

Also, it seems that ÖVP and FPÖ have agreed to roll back the public smoking ban - which is a victory for the restaurant and bar industry. Currently, every restaurant has to set up a smoking area, which is closed off from the non-smoking area. Business owners complained about fewer guests and bureaucratic hurdles. Under the new plans, every restaurant owner can decide on their own if they want to allow smoking or not (like it was the case until a few years ago).
Disgusting. Such a step back.
Not really, most restaurants will keep the areas anyway. They are already built, so they are not going to tear them down.

Of course, nothing is official yet. This is based on a report from tabloid Ö24, while other media says that ÖVP and FPÖ are officially not commenting on the smoking regulations.

The SPÖ meanwhile is already attacking them on it, calling it a huge step back on health ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #73 on: November 10, 2017, 10:32:13 AM »

Also, it seems that ÖVP and FPÖ have agreed to roll back the public smoking ban - which is a victory for the restaurant and bar industry. Currently, every restaurant has to set up a smoking area, which is closed off from the non-smoking area. Business owners complained about fewer guests and bureaucratic hurdles. Under the new plans, every restaurant owner can decide on their own if they want to allow smoking or not (like it was the case until a few years ago).
Disgusting. Such a step back.

The "Krone" (another tabloid paper) now reports the opposite: The ÖVP has decided to keep the strict smoking ban in place that they passed together with the SPÖ, so they are at odds with the FPÖ who want it eased.

Today, oncologists and other health experts strongly attacked ÖVP-FPÖ for their apparent plans to roll back the strict smoking ban. Maybe that's a reason as well. We'll have to wait and see what they ultimately agree to in their coalition contract.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #74 on: November 10, 2017, 10:51:49 AM »

I looked into some historical FPÖ patterns/comparisons today - especially patterns for 1999 vs. 2017, because the nationwide results were about the same (26.9 vs. 26.0):

* in 1999, the FPÖ did extremely well in the big cities - getting an even higher share than nationwide. But turnout in the cities was way below average.

* in 2017 though, the FPÖ did badly in the cities - getting below average results compared with the national result. Turnout was very high in the cities this time (75-78%, vs. 60-65% in 1999).

So, the rising turnout in the cities definitely helped to keep the FPÖ down.

But there are areas in which the FPÖ did much better this time compared with 1999, even in urban areas: examples are the population-rich and fast-growing Vienna suburbs north of the Danube and the working-class districts in Vienna's South. Despite rising turnout, the FPÖ gained ground there. The same in Burgenland.

Another area in which the FPÖ gained is the Waldviertel in Lower Austria south to the Czech border, historically a big ÖVP stronghold. Maybe this has to do with the retirement of Erwin Pröll, but this huge swing to the FPÖ is very odd.

On the other hand, the FPÖ lost a lot of ground in Vorarlberg and Tyrol - where turnout also increased by a lot. In Carinthia, they also lost (but the FPÖ got a high-level result in Haider's home state back in 1999) and they are also above average there now.

I asked Georg Ebner to create a map for 1999 => 2017 swings for the FPÖ by district and for turnout. This should be fun.

Here are they (thanks, Georg):

Change in turnout by district (1999 => 2017)



Changes for FPÖ 1999 vs. FPÖ/FLÖ 2017 by district



---

The data tables:

http://up.picr.de/30902799lp.png

http://up.picr.de/30902801bf.png

---

Turnout was 80.4% in 1999 and 80.0% in 2017, but there were bigger changes on the district level. For example in Vienna and the other big cities + suburbs, it is up significantly.

The rural areas are mixed, some had higher turnout, some lower.

In the cities and suburbs, you can clearly see the FPÖ doing much worse in 2017 than in 1999.

There's also a visible West/East pattern: the West had the FPÖ declining compared with 1999 (also in the rural areas), while the East had the FPÖ gaining.

And here comes the fun with maps thing:

Take a look at the Occupation Zones in Austria after WW2: the Soviet zone trended to the FPÖ, while the American, British and French areas trended away from the FPÖ (one exception is Styria in the former British zone - but this is because of rural industrial/mining decline I guess).

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