Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Looking back to the Salzburg state elections of 1932, the last ones before the Anschluss to Germany in 1938, the results on Sunday are not much different than the ones some 90 years ago:

1932

37.9% Christian-Socials (CS)
25.7% Social-Democratic Worker's Party (SDAPDÖ)
20.8% NSDAP
  6.3% Independents/Farmers
  4.8% Homeland Protection (= Fascists)
  2.7% KPÖ
  1.8% Greater-German People's Party (GDVP)

So, if we lump together the Nazis+GDVP, it's 22.6% (or 27.4% with the Austro-Fascists).

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Election on Sunday (2018)

37.8% ÖVP
29.3% SPÖ+Greens
23.5% FPÖ+FPS+CPÖ
  7.3% a new independent party called NEOS, originating from farmers and the ÖVP
  2.2% Others (incl. KPÖ)

[Tender Branson]

Turns out that the Austrian healthcare system has hoarded lots of money and is sitting on a surplus of 6 Bio. € (!) of instant cash. And at the same time virtually no debt.

That is surprising news even to me (I was aware that the social security carriers have almost no debt, but not that they have such a huge amount of assets available).



The numbers were made public in a ÖVP-FPÖ government paper yesterday, because they are now trying to make the healthcare system even more efficient. There were also other things mentioned in the document, such as luxury pensions for healthcare system officials, costly car parks etc.

There is now a debate about what to do with this huge surplus:

While the management of the umbrella Healthcare System (in which all 22 carriers are organized) calls the document "misleading" and "strictly within the law", the ÖVP-FPÖ government is questioning if a surplus like this is really necessary:

According to the law, the Hauptverband (the Austrian healthcare umbrella organisation) has to keep a surplus of 10% of their annual revenues as part of prevention: in cases of emergency for example, such as an epidemic or pandemic.

ÖVP-FPÖ on the other hand want a part of the surplus to go back to taxpayers and employers, via lower wage costs. Which would mean more money in their pockets at the end of the month.

I tend to support ÖVP-FPÖ on this issue, because how often does an "emergency" like an epidemic or pandemic occur ? I think that 3-4 Bio. € of the surplus could be used to lower the burden on workers instead (currently, many people already struggle to afford daily life, so this would be a good idea).

http://orf.at/stories/2435531/2435528

[Tender Branson]

Johann Gudenus (FPÖ), son of the late Holocaust-denier John Gudenus and the FPÖ's current parliamentary club leader, created controversy over the weekend when he supported Orban's arguments on Soros meddling in Hungary and enabling and supporting mass immigration:

https://derstandard.at/Gudenus-springt-auf-Orbans-Anti-Soros-Kampagne-auf

For these comments, he received strong attacks from SPÖ, NEOS, LiPi, Greens and even from within the ÖVP:

Martin Engelberg, a Jewish MP for the ÖVP in parliament, said "it would have been better if Gudenus shut up on this topic, rather than spreading anti-semitic conspiracy theories and meddling in issues that are not the Austrian government's official policy and involve other countries."

https://derstandard.at/2000078447653/OeVP-Abgeordnete-Engelberg-Waere-besser-gewesen-Gudenus-haette-geschwiegen

Soros' "Open Society Foundation" strikes back at the FPÖ, attacking the party for spreading "Islamophobia" (especially when it comes to introducing bans on *mostly* Islamic clothing such as the Burqa and Niqab).

After which Gudenus strikes back as well, saying that the FPÖ will continue their fight for women's rights and against political Islam and mass immigration and that the attacks from the OSF are "cheeky".

https://derstandard.at/2000078624326/Gudenus-attackiert-Stiftung-von-US-Milliardaer-Soros

[Tender Branson]

Former Chancellor Christian Kern (SPÖ-leader) debated Vice-Chancellor H.C. Strache (FPÖ-leader) today @ Ö1:



The debate got really heated after Strache attacked George Soros for enabling illegal mass immigration to Europe.

Kern strongly attacked him for it, saying that Strache and the FPÖ are nothing better than Neo-Nazis on this issue and that his comments are virtually anti-semitic.

Strache shot back at Kern: "I understand your frustration. After all, you have been the Chancellor with the shortest term in the history of the country. But criticism of Soros is not anti-semitic. It is based on facts and it is non-religious. Even the Israeli PM Netanyahu is critical of Soros and his foundation."

Strache also called Kern a "whiny little princess who has still not digested his election loss last year" and accused him of "poisoning the well".

Kern then offered Strache a bet, saying: "I'm ready to spend a good bottle of red wine because I'm definitely SPÖ party leader for a longer time than you'll continue to be FPÖ-leader."

Strache accepted the bet, saying he has outlived (or "survived") 3 SPÖ-Chancellors already.

https://www.news.at/a/strache-und-kern-gerieten-im-klartext-aneinander-10042014

[DavidB.]

Soros' "Open Society Foundation" strikes back at the FPÖ, attacking the party for spreading "Islamophobia" (especially when it comes to introducing bans on *mostly* Islamic clothing such as the Burqa and Niqab).

Amazing. The FPÖ don't get free PR like that every day!

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg's Governor Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP) and his team have finished the first rounds of exploratory talks with SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens and NEOS.



(FPÖ-leader Marlene Svazek and Haslauer.)

The Governor and the other parties called the talks a "success" in a "very good atmosphere" and that there "was a lot of common ground", but also "some differences".

Haslauer has still not voiced a preference for a certain coalition and said he could call for additional talks in the next days.

The ÖVP will have a meeting next Wednesday in which the Governor will announce his decision.

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/landtagswahl-2018/sondierungsgespraeche-gruene-und-pinke-verhandler-an-der-reihe-27191626

[Tender Branson]

In case of an ÖVP-Greens-NEOS coalition, the ÖVP government team will remain the same + 1 additional seat for them of course.

There are 7 government seats, of which the ÖVP will now occupy 5. Greens+NEOS 1 each.

This is the ÖVP-team:



Josef Schwaiger, Brigitta Pallauf, Gov. Wilfried Haslauer, Daniela Gutschi, Christian Stöckl.

Gutschi would be the additional, new government member.

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For the Greens, it would very likely be either Martina Berthold or Heinrich Schellhorn (who are already in the government right now as well):



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For NEOS, it could be either Sepp Schellhorn (not related with the Green Schellhorn) or Andrea Klambauer:

[Tender Branson]

WIFO is out with a first estimate for GDP in Q1, 2018:

GDP has grown by a strong 3.1% in the first quarter compared with a year ago, or by 0.8% compared with Q4, 2017.

Growth for 2017 as a whole was revised up from 2.9% to 3%.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ-led Interior Ministry decided to raid the extreme right-wing Austrian Identitarians and their member's homes recently, incl. that of Martin Sellner - their leader.





Sellner and his far-right American girlfriend Brittany Pettibone.

Documents and USB-sticks etc. were confiscated.

They are now being charged with creating an organized criminal group and hate speech.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/hausdurchsuchungen-bei-den-rechtsextremen-identitaeren/400027993

[Tender Branson]

In an interview today, the new Austrian Supreme Court chief justice Brigitte Bierlein (once an ÖVP-appointee) said that the ÖVP-FPÖ government plan to introduce a headscarf ban for small Muslim girls in kindergarten/elementary school will likely be voted down by the Court if they pass it as planned.



Mostly because under the government plan, they want to ban the headscarf but leave the cross in the classrooms and also continue to allow Jewish kippas. Bierlein says this would violate the constitution and they'd either have to ban everything or nothing at all.

https://derstandard.at/2000078793119/Bierlein-Das-Kopftuchverbot-ist-sicher-problematisch

[Tender Branson]

A new ATV Austria trend poll shows ÖVP/FPÖ recovering to their 2017 election results or even higher:



By a 50-37 margin, voters say that ÖVP/FPÖ are keeping and delivering their election promises.

83% of ÖVP-voters say so and 80% of FPÖ-voters.

Only 25% of voters are missing the Greens in parliament, 69% do not.

11% of ÖVP-voters are missing them and 4% of FPÖ-voters.

The poll was conducted between April 19-25 among 700 voters, which means the results of the Salzburg state election (where ÖVP-FPÖ were solidly confirmed by voters) were already known to some in the sample.

https://atv.at/oesterreichtrend

[Tender Branson]

The "Kurier" reports that the SPÖ-Green government in Vienna is badly damaged and showing signs of deep cracks:

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/mit-ludwig-wird-das-klima-in-der-koalition-wieder-rauer/400025668

The incoming new mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) - who will take over from long-time mayor Michael Häupl in roughly a month - apparently wants to get rid of the Greens as coalition partner as soon as possible.

Recently, it was announced that the Ludwig-led government will introduce an alcohol ban at one of Vienna's biggest drug and crime hotspots, the Praterstern, which regularly sees knife-fights, heavy injuries and drug-dealing by foreigners and alcohol-related excesses (also by Austrians). The Greens have attacked Ludwig's plans as "populist" and "FPÖ-lite" to win back some of their voters.

Ludwig, unlike the current mayor Häupl, has no real concerns about embracing a more FPÖ-like policy (but has so far ruled out a coalition with them after the next election, due in 2020).

But carrying on with the disintegrating Greens could also be pretty nasty for Ludwig, so he might call a snap election next year. An election this fall already is unlikely, because it takes some time to achieve a certain "incumbency bonus".

On Labour (Holi)-Day tomorrow, the Vienna SPÖ will use their 100.000 visitors parade to show unity.

But the real test will come in 3 weeks, when Vienna mayor Häupl is stepping down after a quarter century in office and Ludwig takes over:

Currently, most SPÖ-members of the city government have already announced their resignation for the new cabinet under Ludwig (or have been secretly pushed into resignation by the Ludwig-wing of the party).

This could come back to haunt Ludwig, who needs to be elected new mayor by a majority in the city council and Red-Green only has a 4-seat majority there.

So, if enough defecting SPÖ- and Green council members vote against Ludwig, the SPÖ would be in total chaos, as well as the Red-Green city government.

Even early elections in the fall or next year could be possible if Ludwig fails.

[Tender Branson]

Austria to complete nationwide 5G network by 2025: minister

VIENNA, April 30 (Xinhua) -- Austria is planning a wide-range implementation of the next-generation wireless network 5G that is to cover the entire country by 2025, local media reported Monday quoting Transport, Innovation and Technology Minister Norbert Hofer.

The minister reiterated the government's sincerity in moving the project forward, with the goal to make Austria a "5G pioneer" in Europe.



"We want to become one of the top three digitalized countries in the EU and in further course one of the top ten digitalized countries in the world," he added.

The government plans are to have the high-speed network available in all state capitals by 2020, and to have the entire country covered by the end of 2025.

The much faster internet afforded by the new technology, which can reach speeds of well over 100 megabits per second, will benefit not only private users, but has been touted by the government as potentially contributing to the establishment of new business possibilities.

Hofer had previously said the total cost of the new network could reach about 10 billion euros (12 billion U.S. dollars), but the actual figure is yet to be confirmed.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/01/c_137147787.htm

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Germany could take some lessons here: If you go skiing on any Austrian mountain, you currently have 4G internet access (even when it storms and it's icy).

In many German rural areas, you have virtually no Internet access or very low speed only.

But hey, they have a low debt level !

[Tender Branson]

On Sunday, the mayoral runoff election in Innsbruck (capital of Tyrol) will take place between the Green Georg Willi and the incumbent mayor Christine Oppitz-Plörer (FI).



Willi won the first round with 31%, while Oppitz-Plörer got 24%.

Meanwhile, ÖVP and FPÖ are lining up covertly behind the incumbent mayor C.O.P. - calling Willi too naive on the crime and drug problems with the Maghreb (= mostly Moroccan) immigrant community in Innsbruck around the train station (which in fact is a massive problem). The FPÖ and ÖVP-candidates received 21% and 9% in Round 1.

https://derstandard.at/2000078932195/Innsbruck-Wahl-OeVP-fuer-buergerlichen-Weg-sieht-Gruene-weiter-links

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ claimed 120.000 visitors today at their May 1 Labour Day event in Vienna, which would be more than in recent years. The party leadership used the parade and speeches to show unity and to attack the federal ÖVP-FPÖ government on their plans to reform healthcare, welfare and labour rights (which in the eyes of the SPÖ means deep cuts for the working-class).





For the FPÖ (which held their own event in Upper Austria in a beer tent with 5.000 people present), it was the first May Day as a government party. Strache & Co. praised Orban for keeping the border closed (the crowd roared), attacked Red-Green in Vienna and especially SPÖ-leader Kern for leading the SPÖ into the abyss and called for a minimum wage of 1.500€ net for all workers (that's about 14$/hour net in US terms). Strache also praised themselves as the "new Labour party", while the SPÖ is the "party of Islam". Strache also said he hopes for 2 terms in government (= 10 years) in which they can correct all the mistakes by the SPÖ and Greens.





May Day parades and speeches are mostly a thing of the "labour parties" SPÖ and FPÖ, while the ÖVP is keeping it low-key: Chancellor Kurz visited a retirement home and care workers, to honour their 24/7/365 work:

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg:

Gov. Haslauer (ÖVP) will announce his coalition choice tonight.

ÖVP-FPÖ or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS are likely, while ÖVP-SPÖ can be *almost* ruled out (according to the SN newspaper).

[TheSaint250]

Is NEOS in any coalition yet?

[Tender Branson]

Is NEOS in any coalition yet?

No, it would be their first.

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg:

Gov. Haslauer (ÖVP) will announce his coalition choice tonight.

ÖVP-FPÖ or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS are likely, while ÖVP-SPÖ can be *almost* ruled out (according to the SN newspaper).

The ÖVP meeting is taking place right now.

According to "SN" insider news, Haslauer will opt for a "Dirndl" coalition ... named after the traditional Austrian clothing for women:

  

This would be the first of its kind.

[Tender Branson]

It's official:

Salzburg will get an ÖVP-Green-NEOS government.

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/landtagswahl-2018/salzburg-oevp-gruene-und-neos-bilden-die-neue-landesregierung-27441796#s27441796-27442849

Nice.

[Tender Branson]

It's official:

Salzburg will get an ÖVP-Green-NEOS government.

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/landtagswahl-2018/salzburg-oevp-gruene-und-neos-bilden-die-neue-landesregierung-27441796#s27441796-27442849

Nice.

Coalition talks will already start today at 1pm.

[Tender Branson]

Lower Austria's government member from the FPÖ, Gottfried Waldhäusl, who's responsible for asylum in the state, has gone quite radical over the past days:

Because he thinks the previous government has not done enough on the asylum situation, his office has now sent out more than 400 letters to rejected asylum seekers, informing them to show up at "return-centers" in the state, where they are housed until they are deported. The deadline for them to show up was today, or they'd lose every state subsidy + welfare payments. Those who show up will only get basic housing and food + medical treatment, but no further welfare payments anymore. They will also get "deportation aid" to voluntarily leave the country instead of being deported.

Currently, many rejected asylum seekers (those whose claims have been rejected by court) are indeed "tolerated" to remain in the country somehow and often commit crimes during their illegal stay.

He also created controversy by saying the following: "Every animal on a farm, cattle, pigs, chicken etc. is registered in a database in Austria, but we have no clue who is coming into the country."

Which led to an outcry from left-wing parties such as the SPÖ and Greens, but also from NEOS and now the ÖVP-Governor Mikl-Leitner, who said that "such a choice of words where people are compared with livestock is totally unacceptable".

https://derstandard.at/2000079199899/Mikl-Leitner-uebt-scharfe-Kritik-an-Waldhaeusls-Wortwahl

The FPÖ on the other hand strongly supports Waldhäusl's actions on putting the rejected asylum seekers into deportation camps or to advise them to leave voluntarily. They even say his actions are an example for the other states.

This deadline comes on a day on which an asylum seeker threw a hammer at small children in Lower Austria and then attacked police officers:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/niederoesterreich/Asylwerber-wirft-Meissel-nach-Kindern/332300433

[Tender Branson]

2 major recent scandals involving the FPÖ, which appeared to have nothing to do with each other, are now apparently linked - according to investigations by the liberal NEOS party.

I have already reported about the 2 scandals.

The first scandal was about Nazi-songbooks in an FPÖ-affiliated fraternity from the 1990s that surfaced days before the Lower Austrian state election in January, which led to the resignation of the FPÖ-leader and a bad election result.

The second scandal was about a stealth purge of the current (SPÖ-leaning) leadership within the Austrian intelligence services. Basically, the FPÖ wanted to remove the leadership and replace it with FPÖ-people. This stalled after massive reporting in the media and opposition in the public. This simply got too hot for the FPÖ.

It now turns out that back in 2015, the BVT (an intelligence service) was considering raiding right-wing fraternities offices and charging important members on creating hate speech groups because the songbook mentioned above was already uncovered back then.

So, the recent purge plans might have been some sort of revenge for this ...

NEOS wants an investigation into the matter (NEOS is rising in my book lately).

https://kurier.at/chronik/causa-bvt-spur-zur-affaere-um-das-burschenschafter-liederbuch/400031242

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg government formation update:



Talks between ÖVP-Greens-NEOS continued today. They agreed that policies on 14 chapters will be discussed in the next 3 weeks for a common coalition contract.

Today, talks started on education & science as well as on economy, agriculture and environment.

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/landtagswahl-2018/schwarz-gruen-pink-nach-der-aufwaermrunde-folgen-inhaltliche-brocken-27487504#s27487504-27487441

A pretty interesting point that I didn't post yet:

Gov. Haslauer (ÖVP) said that Chancellor Kurz (ÖVP) wanted him to go for a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, which Haslauer rejected. He said he wants a "coalition of the center", which fits the state much better. Media saw this as a rebuke to the Chancellor and a sign of power, independence and self-confidence for the state governors.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Innsbruck mayoral runoff tomorrow:

56.4% Christine Oppitz-Plörer (FI-incumbent)
43.6% Georg Willi (Greens)