Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[DavidB.]

Bit irredentist putting South Tyrol here, lol.

Can't wait to cover the next Flemish election in my Dutch thread either

[Tender Branson]

It's not uncommon for an Austrian to report about South Tyrol, despite belonging to Italy: even the Austrian ORF public broadcaster has their own South Tyrol news branch, which is very popular with residents there.

[Tender Branson]

Vice-Chancellor Strache (FPÖ) apologized today for a racist article in the FPÖ-associated "Aula" newspaper, where Cesar Sampson (who won 3rd place for Austria in the Eurovision Song Contest recently) was called a "quota ni**er":

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/quotenmohr-strache-entschuldigt-sich/400040593

[DavidB.]

Is Mohr really as offensive as the N-word? Regardless, yes, this should not have been published.

[Tender Branson]

Also today:

Georg Willi, who was elected the first Green Party mayor of a major Austrian city over 100.000 inhabitants (= Innsbruck) recently with 53%, was officially sworn in today by Tyrol Governor Günther Platter.



The new coalition in Innsbruck is Greens-FI-ÖVP-SPÖ:

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg State's new ÖVP-Greens-NEOS government was presented today.



The ÖVP as biggest party will be responsible for the Economy, Tourism, Communities, Education & Museums, Water, Agriculture, Hunting, National Parks, Mobility and Traffic, Infrastructure, Health, Finances, Spatial Planning, Sports and Civil Servants/Administration.

The Greens will be responsible for the Environment & Protection, Social Issues, Culture and Energy.

NEOS will be responsible for Families, Child Care, Science and Education, Adult Education, Women and Equality, Youth and Generations, Integration and Housing.

(looks like the Greens got really screwed over during the talks, because they got some significant areas removed from their portfolio, which is not surprising considering their election loss.)

The joint press conference also outlined their 4 main goals:

* a focus on public transport in their next term and a 365€ ticket for public transport statewide.

* no annual budget deficits and a complete eradication of the state debt by 2042.

* the biggest possible transparency by the state gov. and involvement of citizens

* ecological sustainability for the next generations

Other important aspects include strengthening rural areas by strongly increasing all-day child care spots (which is important for working mothers).

2 of the 7 government members will be new (Andrea Klambauer from NEOS and one unnamed woman from the ÖVP, to be determined in the party committee meeting on Sunday.)

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2914806

[Tender Branson]

Here is the new composition of Austrian state governments:



The next elections are in late 2019 (Vorarlberg) and in late 2020 (Vienna, Styria, Burgenland).

[Tender Branson]

Good article from the "WSJ" about understanding Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and his policies:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/austrian-chancellor-sebastian-kurz-seeks-to-draw-antimigrant-voters-back-1527249600

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll by Unique Research (conducted this week, n=800):

32% ÖVP (+0.5)
25% FPÖ (-1.0)
25% SPÖ (-2.0)
  7% NEOS (+1.7)
  6% Greens (+2.2)
  4% LiPi (-0.4)

Chancellor vote:

34% Kurz (ÖVP)
20% Kern (SPÖ)
14% Strache (FPÖ)

Approval rating of the ÖVP-FPÖ government:

53% Approve (12% strongly, 41% somewhat)
41% Disapprove (25% somewhat, 16% strongly)
  6% Undecided

Opinion on ÖVP-FPÖ's recent CETA approval:

29% Approve (7% strongly, 22% somewhat)
51% Disapprove (22% somewhat, 29% strongly)
20% Undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20180526_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-fpoe-wieder-gleichauf-mit-der-spoe-auf-platz-zwei

[rob in cal]

  The article about Kurz mentions that the new Italian government is composed of populists of the right and left.  I wouldn't call 5 star of the left, more of the center. Also interesting is that in Austria's case so far, the FPO still does well even with Kurz moving in their direction on the migration issue, so in the Austrian case is it that had Kurz not moved the OVP closer to the FPO, the FPO would now be the largest party?

[Tender Branson]

  The article about Kurz mentions that the new Italian government is composed of populists of the right and left.  I wouldn't call 5 star of the left, more of the center. Also interesting is that in Austria's case so far, the FPO still does well even with Kurz moving in their direction on the migration issue, so in the Austrian case is it that had Kurz not moved the OVP closer to the FPO, the FPO would now be the largest party?

Very likely. It was also the case before Kurz took over. You could probably subtract some 5-8% from the ÖVP and give it to the FPÖ.

[EPG]

I don't really buy that Kurz was ever pro-migration. I don't see it. The problem with "listening" and emoting is that Austrians are still going to be really p***ed by the presence of foreigners even if you cut immigration to zero, and it just feeds resentment to pander.

[Tender Branson]

Now that Michael Ludwig is the new Vienna-mayor, here is a first OGM Vienna state election poll for the "Kurier" newspaper (elections are planned for 2020, but could also happen earlier):



Majority for FPÖ-ÖVP (!!!), mostly because the "List Pilz" fails to pass the 5% threshold.

Compared with the December poll, SPÖ+ÖVP would gain a bit and FPÖ+NEOS lose a bit.

Compared with the 2015 elections, the SPÖ is down 6 points, the FPÖ down 4 and the Greens down by 6 points. The ÖVP is up a lot (by 13 points) and LiPi up 4 points. NEOS is unchanged.

Vienna voters also rate retired mayor Häupl's 25 years in office as pretty good and also give the new mayor Ludwig good starting grades:



I have seen quite a bit from the new mayor Ludwig in TV interviews and newspaper reports during the last days and he strikes me as a really good new mayor, with positions similar to mine. He's a classic Social Democrat who favours strong protections for the Social Partnership and who likes to combat ÖVP-FPÖ on their planned social reforms, but on the other hand puts a stronger focus on security issues in the city, talking with people on the street what their concerns are and tackling these issues and also combat welfare fraud and abuse (which was ignored in the previous decades).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/gute-startnoten-selbst-fpoe-fans-fuer-michael-ludwig/400041571

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg State's new ÖVP-Greens-NEOS government was presented today.

All 3 party committees approved the new coalition today.

The Greens also elected Heinrich Schellhorn as their new party leader with more than 94% of the votes, after Astrid Rössler resigned following their big election losses.

No surprises from NEOS, where Andrea Klambauer will become member of the government.

The ÖVP had some surprises today, by presenting 30-year old MP Stefan Schnöll (a close associate of Sebastian Kurz from the Young ÖVP) as one of their new government members.

The other surprise was Maria Hutter (36) from my district Zell am See.

Schnöll's seat in the Austrian parliament will be taken by Gertraud Salzmann, also from my district.

The ÖVP's new government team (in the center, Governor Haslauer):



http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2915205

[Tender Branson]

During their 2-day government work retreat at a castle in Lower Austria today, ÖVP-FPÖ agreed to introduce a new elementary school subject called "Environmental Protection, Sustainability, Organic Farming & Prevention of Climate Change".

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Regierungsklausur-bringt-Mindestsicherungsreform;art385,2907542

[Tender Branson]

During their common work retreat, ÖVP-FPÖ have also presented their welfare reform proposals today, which was one of their major campaign policy goals.

There will be significant restrictions and pay cuts for foreigners (even EU-citizens), but higher payments for Austrian single mothers (Austrian families with kids will also get lower welfare payments, encouraging their parents to get back into the labour force):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.dw.com/en/austria-plans-benefit-cuts-for-non-german-speaking-foreigners-refugees/a-43965191

[Tender Branson]

The List Pilz is literally killing itself at the moment, like the Team Stronach or the BZÖ:

http://www.krone.at/1714770

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-FPÖ government is certainly not stupid ...

Yesterday, they presented their welfare reform plans - which will lead to heavy cuts for foreigners and only the full welfare payments if they also successfully complete German lessons and a written/oral test at a certain level + sign an integration contract.

But: ÖVP-FPÖ have also announced several months ago that the 2019 budget will see an almost 90% cut to German lessons for foreigners ...

(Red-Green Vienna calls this outrageous and wants the federal government to pay for the lessons. I think ÖVP-FPÖ secretly speculate that if foreigners are not taking the German lessons, they won't get the welfare payments and eventually leave the country ... Finance Minister Löger actually said: "In a few years, Vienna will thank us for our reforms.")

https://derstandard.at/2000080646957/Wien-verlangt-vom-Bund-Deutschkurse-fuer-Fluechtlinge

[Tender Branson]

For the German-speakers:

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Sebastian-Kurz-beginnt-den-grossen-Umbau-article20455009.html

"Kurz starts the big work to re-shape Austria (... with welfare and healthcare reform)."

=> the next big step is reforming unemployment money in the fall, which currently has a "backup system" for the long-term unemployed (they continue to get almost the same level of unemployment money even after their maximum period to receive it is over - without the state tapping into their personal assets). Kurz wants to change that: the so-called "Notstandshilfe" will be abolished and unemployed who have reached the end of their max. coverage period will automatically switch to the welfare system, where the state can tap into the personal assets of the unemployed to finance their welfare. People on welfare can only have personal assets of some 5.000€ and a car if necessary.

The planned abolition of this backup system is going to be very controversial, because unemployment money is an insurance payment, caused by contributing to the system over the years. By eliminating it, people would automatically switch into a needs-based-system, which could be unconstitutional. People have a right to claim their insurance-based money after all.

[Tender Branson]

For the first time in several years, the unemployment rate has dropped below 5% again in April (4.9%) and is down by a percent compared with a year ago - according to Eurostat/ILO methods.

Also today, GDP growth for Q1 2018 was revised up to +3.4% - suggesting that the economy might grow as fast as last year (+3%), if current trends continue (at least the 2nd quarter will also see high growth).



https://derstandard.at/2000080677173/Oesterreichs-Wirtschaft-wuchs-im-ersten-Quartal-um-0-8-Prozent

[Tender Branson]

Marko Feingold recently celebrated his 105th birthday by drinking champagne with Kurz and Strache. Feingold (who I have personally met once while on a school trip to Salzburg City) is the President of the Jewish Community here in Salzburg and a holocaust/concentration camp survivor and dedicated his whole life to talking with Austrian students about the horrors of that time:

[Tender Branson]

A new IMAS poll (no big changes compared with the 2017 election):

[Tender Branson]

Austria finally has a new US-ambassador with Trevor Traina, a founder of an IT-company in San Francisco, millionaire and philantropist:



His father already served as US-ambassador to Austria as well in the 1970s.

http://www.krone.at/1713529

[Tender Branson]

The List Pilz is literally killing itself at the moment, like the Team Stronach or the BZÖ:

http://www.krone.at/1714770

Their total mess continues:

Today, MP Peter Kolba announced his resignation from parliament, after two old men (MPs Bruno Rossman & Wolfgang Zinggl) said today they will take over together to co-chair the LiPi's parliamentary group.

And all of this, while their parliamentary group of 8 is quarrelling non-stop and everyone at odds with each other, with most of the blame going to the young woman and MP Martha Bissmann - who still refuses to give up her seat in favour of Peter Pilz - who wants to return to parliament after he's been cleared of his sexual misconduct allegations.

Horrible optics.

https://derstandard.at/2000080736295/Liste-Pilz-mit-Rossmann-und-Zinggl-als-neue-Klubspitze

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-FPÖ government today annouced that they will attenuate their welfare reform proposal after heavy criticism from the SPÖ, unions, charitable/anti-poverty organisations and the Greens.

Their current proposal would have meant cuts not only to foreigners and asylum seekers, but also for Austrian families with kids and also single-mothers/fathers with kids on welfare in states which have high cost of living.

The opposition parties/organisations above have come out with calculations recently and for example in the 3 western states were the ÖVP governs with the Greens, the cost of living is much higher than in eastern states. Families there would have lost up to 500€ in welfare per month under ÖVP-FPÖ's plans. A family with 2 kids gets some 1800€ in welfare in Tyrol per month (where a medium-sized apartment often costs 1000€).

The Greens in these 3 states are categorically opposed to these welfare cuts and would have put the coalitions there at risk.

ÖVP-FPÖ will now allow higher housing benefits again, which means the cuts are going to be milder than thought.

https://derstandard.at/2000080727761/Regierung-erlaubt-Laendern-Wohnbeihilfen-zur-Mindestsicherung