Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Pretty clearly, Austrians on net approve of what is happening. It's not as controversial as it seemed. European solidarity is seen as optional. Eventually, though, this a la carte approach to the EU ends with a referendum.

That's not true:

Austrians, in the middle or at the heart of Europe, always were bridge-builders between Western and Eastern Europe (but also see both sides sceptical, because of their flaws). And the EU and Russia have many flaws. So, it is not surprising that about 1/3 are OK with Putin meddling here, 1/3 opposed and 1/3 not giving a damn. But that still doesn't change the fact that Austrians clearly favour to remain in the EU by a wide margin. Besides, there won't be a referendum on leaving the EU here. Also, European solidarity is not seen as "optional". The current government's position (and also that of the general population) is that you can only have a functioning, stable EU if there's a strong border on the South and South-East. Only if culture-hostile, criminal economic "refugees" are being kept out and only those who are really in need are allowed in. But it has to be us who choose them, not the smugglers.

Another new poll out today for "Profil" magazine confirms this:

11% of Austrians want closer ties with Putin and Russia
46% of Austrians prefer the status-quo and a balanced/neutral approach with Putin
33% of Austrians want the government to distance itself/cut ties with Putin
10% are undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20180825_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-ein-drittel-sieht-umgang-mit-putin-kritisch

[EPG]

Another poll that suggests 1/3rd of people want to change the current situation where the foreign secretary pays fealty to Putin on her wedding day, while 57% are fine with this.

[Tender Branson]

Another poll that suggests 1/3rd of people want to change the current situation where the foreign secretary pays fealty to Putin on her wedding day, while 57% are fine with this.

The 46% (I would be one of them btw, if polled) are not "fine with it".

Many of those 46% are very critical about Putin and his actions and human rights abuses (among them a lot of ÖVP-voters, who are historically very opposed to Russia or the Soviet Union), but they are realistic enough that it is the best approach right now to keep channels to Putin open. Because an isolated authoritarian will only become more aggressive and authoritarian if he feels persecuted (in his own paranoid mindset).

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for the "Standard" newspaper (n=800, August 20-23):

33% ÖVP (-1% compared with their June poll)
28% SPÖ (+2%)
23% FPÖ (-2%)
  7% NEOS (n.c.)
  6% Greens (+1%)
  2% LiPi (n.c.)
  1% Others (n.c.)

41% of those polled think that the Greens will enter parliament again in 2022, 39% not.

63% of voters also think the ÖVP-FPÖ government will last the whole 5-year term.

https://derstandard.at/2000086088510/FPOe-faellt-in-Sonntagsfrage-leicht-zurueck

[Tender Branson]

Tonight, H.C. Strache (FPÖ) will be interviewed for an hour on the public broadcaster ORF as part of their "summer interview" series with party leaders.

What I forgot to mention: Last week's interview with NEOS-frontwoman Beate Meinl-Reisinger was really good. She was eloquent and positioned herself as a sharp critic to the FPÖ and as strongly anti-Putin. I really liked her performance and it seems that NEOS rose a bit lately. After she took over from Matthias Strolz a few months ago, critics wrote: "Is this the end of NEOS ?" Definitely not. I will probably vote NEOS in the EU elections next year, as things stand right now.

[Tender Branson]

Tonight, H.C. Strache (FPÖ) will be interviewed for an hour on the public broadcaster ORF as part of their "summer interview" series with party leaders.

The interview just ended and I have never seen such a laid-back, relaxed and focused Strache before. That was an A+ interview performance. Very statesmanlike, experienced and nice to the journalists - nothing like the aggressive Strache from a few years ago.



https://orf.at/stories/2452549/2452550

Full video:

https://tvthek.orf.at/profile/Sommergespraeche-2018/13889360/Sommergespraech-mit-Heinz-Christian-Strache-FPOe/13987138

[Tender Branson]

In the new ATV Austria trend poll, the FPÖ drops to the lowest level since 2013 (but the government still remains stable, because the ÖVP gains what the FPÖ loses):



On the other hand, the SPÖ has reached their best result since 2013 (at least in this poll, they have been at 30% in another poll).

https://atv.at/oesterreichtrend

[Tender Branson]

4 months from today, on 1 January 2019, gay marriage will become legal here.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5488454/Josef-Moser_Ehe-und-Eingetragene-Partnerschaft-fuer-alle

Justice Minister Moser (formerly FPÖ, now ÖVP) said in an interview that the government will implement the Constitutional Court ruling without any changes. A law will be passed in the fall.

This means that not only gays can marry next year, but also that the current gay Civil Union Law (which is more modern and fitting for 21st century relationships) will be available for hetero couples as well.

This is the last step on this topic, because full adoption rights and reproduction rights + 3rd gender ID laws are already available to gay people.

[Omega21]

4 months from today, on 1 January 2019, gay marriage will become legal here.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5488454/Josef-Moser_Ehe-und-Eingetragene-Partnerschaft-fuer-alle

Justice Minister Moser (formerly FPÖ, now ÖVP) said in an interview that the government will implement the Constitutional Court ruling without any changes. A law will be passed in the fall.

This means that not only gays can marry next year, but also that the current gay Civil Union Law (which is more modern and fitting for 21st century relationships) will be available for hetero couples as well.

This is the last step on this topic, because full adoption rights and reproduction rights + 3rd gender ID laws are already available to gay people.

Good. No reason why Gay people shouldn't be allowed to Marry.

Although I find 3rd gender laws of some countries very infringing, like the ones in Canada for example. Hopefully, we won't see such freedom of speech limitations in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

After almost 1 year, the honeymoon period for the ÖVP could be over, because it turned out that one of their young MPs in parliament, Dominik Schrott from Tyrol, has launched a fake online competition during the ÖVP election campaign last year. The "prize" was "won" by one of his aides and he used taxpayer money to "set up" a website that never went online. Schrott recently stepped down from all offices, including Young ÖVP-leader in Tyrol.

His resignation comes after pressure from Chancellor Kurz and Tyrol Governor Platter, who called their former "rising star" and his dubious actions "dishonest".



Sophia Kircher (24, also from Tyrol) will replace him:



https://tirol.orf.at/news/stories/2931478

[Tender Branson]

Vienna Green Party leader Maria Vassilakou has announced her retirement today after 13 years in that job + her retirement as city councillor in mid-2019.

This will make early Vienna state elections more likely now. Regularly planned for 2020, they could happen in the spring or fall next year, because the SPÖ could see a favourable window opening for them. The new leader of the Greens will only get elected in November and would only take over as new Green city councillor by mid-2019. That wouldn't be enough time to get a profile for the snap election and the SPÖ could benefit from the leadership change.

The more extremist, ideological David Ellensohn and the preferred choice of Vassilakou, Peter Kraus, have already declared their candidacies to replace her as party leader.

FPÖ+ÖVP+NEOS are already calling for new elections because of her retirement, while the SPÖ - officially, for now - repeated that their coalition with the Greens will hold until 2020.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/maria-vassilakou-geht-neustart-bei-den-gruenen/400107083

[Omega21]

Vienna Green Party leader Maria Vassilakou has announced her retirement today after 13 years in that job + her retirement as city councillor in mid-2019.

This will make early Vienna state elections more likely now. Regularly planned for 2020, they could happen in the spring or fall next year, because the SPÖ could see a favourable window opening for them. The new leader of the Greens will only get elected in November and would only take over as new Green city councillor by mid-2019. That wouldn't be enough time to get a profile for the snap election and the SPÖ could benefit from the leadership change.

The more extremist, ideological David Ellensohn and the preferred choice of Vassilakou, Peter Kraus, have already declared their candidacies to replace her as party leader.

FPÖ+ÖVP+NEOS are already calling for new elections because of her retirement, while the SPÖ - officially, for now - repeated that their coalition with the Greens will hold until 2020.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/maria-vassilakou-geht-neustart-bei-den-gruenen/400107083

One look at his Twitter made it obvious what he is. Retweeting stuff like

"Jetzt sind es die Ausländer.

Dann die Menschen mit Behinderungen.
Dann die Homo- und Transsexuellen.
Dann die Hartz IV- Empfänger.
Dann die Alleinerziehenden.

Alle, die nicht ins gewünschte, deutsche, klassische Familienbild passen.

Es wird nicht aufhören."

Classic fear mongering that the Nazis are coming back...

He also proudly states how he was a part of the movement to dig up a dead Pilot from WW2 that was buried in a Plot of Honour.

Seriously, if his best achievement was digging up a dead soldier after 70 years (one that was not a war criminal), he has no place in politics whatsoever.

[Tender Branson]

Bad news for the ÖVP lately:

Efgani Dönmez, a former Green of Kurdish origin ("now" ÖVP), who I really liked for his moderate/critical views on immigration and Erdogan, was expelled from the ÖVP parliamentary group today after he posted a sexist comment against a German SPD member of Palestinian origin.



During an argument with a German twitter user on Sunday, Dönmez wrote about Sawsan Chebli (SPD), after the twitter user asked how she could ever become a state secretary:

"Just look at her knees. Maybe you'll find the answer there."

https://www.krone.at/1765404

"Look at her knees" implies of course that she gave a lot of blowjobs, which resulted in her current job ...

Chancellor Kurz said today that such sexist behaviour is unacceptable in the "new ÖVP" and kicked him out.

[Tender Branson]

I think it was the right decision that Kurz swiftly kicked out Dönmez from the ÖVP today for his sexist comment, because on Friday the first session in parliament after the summer break will take place and all opposition parties have said they would walk out of parliament if Dönmez were to speak ... all of this would have resulted in really bad media coverage for the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

MP Reinhard Bösch (FPÖ) has come out with a controversial plan over the weekend, where he called for Europeans to militarily seize and occupy/colonize land in Northern Africa to keep the migrants from reaching Europe.



https://derstandard.at/2000086623328/FPOe-Wehrsprecher-regt-Besetzung-von-Boden-in-Nordafrika-an

The Greens and all others (except the ÖVP) attacked him, saying he has "Erwin Rommel in his mind".

[Omega21]

MP Reinhard Bösch (FPÖ) has come out with a controversial plan over the weekend, where he called for Europeans to militarily seize and occupy/colonize land in Northern Africa to keep the migrants from reaching Europe.



https://derstandard.at/2000086623328/FPOe-Wehrsprecher-regt-Besetzung-von-Boden-in-Nordafrika-an

The Greens and all others (except the ÖVP) attacked him, saying he has "Erwin Rommel in his mind".

A dumb idea considering Austria is neutral, I just don't get the comparison to Rommel.

[rob in cal]

  I think the better approach was when Italy paid Libya's Gadhafi to keep a tight lid on its southern border.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna Greens:

The deadline to register as a candidate for the party leadership election in November ended yesterday and 9 candidates have declared their candidacy (but only 3 of them have a chance to be elected new party leader. The other 6 are unknowns and only random Green voters).

 

Kraus is the preferred candidate of outgoing party leader Maria Vassilakou, who wants a "generational change at the top". He's also the LGBT-speaker of the Vienna Greens.

Hebein is also a member of the city council and the Greens social issues speaker and a professional social worker.

Ellensohn is the leader of the Green city council group in Vienna and known for his radical and polarizing comments. He frequently likes to attack the ÖVP-FPÖ government by calling them Nazis.

https://derstandard.at/2000086773691/Die-Neun-die-Vassilakou-beerben-wollen

Green party members and people who register online and donate a fee of 15€ to the Green Party can vote between Nov. 8-26 to elect the new party leader. That new leader is determined by ranked-choice voting.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna state election poll by Research Affairs:



The election is planned for 2020, but could be next year already because of the Green problems and new leadership. Also, the SPÖ is getting increasingly annoyed with the Greens as coalition partner.

SPÖ+Greens would have no majority anymore. FPÖVP would also have no majority, but their minority government could be supported by NEOS - who want to oust the SPÖ from their stronghold.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Wien-Umfrage-SPOe-siegt-Gruene-zerlegt/347752815

[Tender Branson]

New general election poll for "Heute" newspaper (n=800, phone+online, Sept. 3-6):

33% ÖVP
29% SPÖ
23% FPÖ
  7% NEOS
  5% Greens
  2% LiPi
  1% Others

ÖVP-FPÖ government approval rating:

49% approve (-9)
45% disapprove (+9)

ÖVP-voters approve by 89-9 and FPÖ-voters by 77-19. SPÖ-voters disapprove by 82-18.

"In which of these daily situations is the Muslim headscarf annoying to you ?"

57-37 annoying - in kindergarten, school, university

47-49 not annoying - in hospitals, at the doctor
42-54 not annoying - at the supermarket
40-56 not annoying - on the street, in public

"ÖVP-FPÖ recently presented tougher minimum penalties without the possibility of parole for convicted rapists. Do you support these changes to the criminal law ?"

90-6 support

ÖVP-voters: 95-4 support
FPÖ-voters: 97-1 support
SPÖ-voters: 91-6 support

http://www.heute.at/asset/original/d/c/d/dcd2d200a26df6bb567cfc1502801085.pdf

[Omega21]

New general election poll for "Heute" newspaper (n=800, phone+online, Sept. 3-6):

SPÖ-voters disapprove by 82-18.

Either SPO voters are very dumb, or they are brainwashed into being against the government because you know, they are Nazis...

Objectively the government has mostly been doing a good job, so I fail to see how people can just stick to their ideologies and say they disapprove, even though they approve of most of the things the government has actually done.

[Tender Branson]

New general election poll for "Heute" newspaper (n=800, phone+online, Sept. 3-6):

SPÖ-voters disapprove by 82-18.

Either SPO voters are very dumb, or they are brainwashed into being against the government because you know, they are Nazis...

Objectively the government has mostly been doing a good job, so I fail to see how people can just stick to their ideologies and say they disapprove, even though they approve of most of the things the government has actually done.

It's pretty common that the voters of opposition parties are diametrically opposed to the governing parties and their voters ... nothing to see here.

SPÖ-voters in general do not like the government policies on social issues (which they see as anti-social and cold-hearted) and many urban SPÖ-voters also do not like their policies on immigration (rural SPÖ-voters are more welcome to these policies).

[Tender Branson]

In Vienna, the SPÖ and the new mayor Michael Ludwig are (unofficially) starting their election campaign next week by setting up more than 1.000 billboards (Ludwig and voters/migrants/kids are on them).

That's another sign that the SPÖ will call early state elections for the spring of next year, instead of waiting until the regular 2020 date.



This is obviously intended to make Ludwig known to all voters and to get a nice incumbency bonus for the early election.

If Ludwig wins 40% and remains stable compared with 2015, it is likely that he'll enter a coalition with the ÖVP. This is possible because Ludwig has a good relationship with the city-ÖVP, but a paradox situation considering the national ÖVP-FPÖ coalition.

---

Today, Burgenland's SPÖ elects Hans-Peter Doskozil as their new party leader after Hans Niessl will retire after 18 years as party leader and Governor of the state. Doskozil, the former Austrian Defense Minister and police officer, will then succeed Niessl as Governor on February 28, 2019.

https://derstandard.at/2000086954117/Niessl-tritt-am-28-Februar-als-Landeschef-im-Burgenland-ab

[windjammer]

New general election poll for "Heute" newspaper (n=800, phone+online, Sept. 3-6):

33% ÖVP
29% SPÖ
23% FPÖ
  7% NEOS
  5% Greens
  2% LiPi
  1% Others

ÖVP-FPÖ government approval rating:

49% approve (-9)
45% disapprove (+9)

ÖVP-voters approve by 89-9 and FPÖ-voters by 77-19. SPÖ-voters disapprove by 82-18.

"In which of these daily situations is the Muslim headscarf annoying to you ?"

57-37 annoying - in kindergarten, school, university

47-49 not annoying - in hospitals, at the doctor
42-54 not annoying - at the supermarket
40-56 not annoying - on the street, in public

"ÖVP-FPÖ recently presented tougher minimum penalties without the possibility of parole for convicted rapists. Do you support these changes to the criminal law ?"

90-6 support

ÖVP-voters: 95-4 support
FPÖ-voters: 97-1 support
SPÖ-voters: 91-6 support

http://www.heute.at/asset/original/d/c/d/dcd2d200a26df6bb567cfc1502801085.pdf

I wouldn't be surprised if FPO continues to go down a bit, with OVP and SPO continuing to rise.

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't be surprised if FPO continues to go down a bit, with OVP and SPO continuing to rise.

Some of the next topics that ÖVP+FPÖ will tackle are rather controversial, such as reforming unemployment payments and welfare payments - so it's likely that they will both drop a bit further in the next months.

On the other hand, the child tax credit for families will take effect on Jan. 1, 2019 and considering families with kids/parents in the workforce are ÖVP+FPÖ's key constituents, the drop might not be as big (in Austria, voters between 30-60 are the most rightwing, while the young and the retired are the more left-leaning).