Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Sigrid Maurer, a former 32-year old Green MP, posted the following on her Twitter account recently after the Greens were kicked out of parliament:

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Certainly improves the Green chances in the future (lol) and it shows how detached they have become from ordinary people ...

[Tender Branson]

TITANIC (a German satire magazine) strikes again:

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[Tender Branson]

Coalition talks have shifted into "serious business"-mode today:

https://www.news.at/a/koalition-steuerungsgruppe-startet-open-end-abend-8423307

In the last days, all 25 cluster groups had meetings and reported to the steering group (Kurz, Strache and others) about their progress.

Today, the steering group is talking open-ended (which could mean way into the night).

Strache said that there are 1/3 of issues on which they fully agree with the ÖVP and which will be quickly done with, 1/3 in which they'll find a compromise and 1/3 which are going to be tough nuts to crack.

[Tender Branson]

Coalition talks have shifted into "serious business"-mode today:

https://www.news.at/a/koalition-steuerungsgruppe-startet-open-end-abend-8423307

In the last days, all 25 cluster groups had meetings and reported to the steering group (Kurz, Strache and others) about their progress.

Today, the steering group is talking open-ended (which could mean way into the night).

Strache said that there are 1/3 of issues on which they fully agree with the ÖVP and which will be quickly done with, 1/3 in which they'll find a compromise and 1/3 which are going to be tough nuts to crack.

Update:

ÖVP/FPÖ have agreed on the 2018/19 budgets (structural deficits no higher than 0.5% of GDP in both years), a reduction of the debt from the current 80% of GDP to below 70%, a tax cut and the consolidation of the 21 health care carriers to only a handful (or a single-payer system). The smoking ban or cabinet posts were not debated.



The steering group and 25 cluster groups will intensify talks in the next 2 weeks and work out more common projects.

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5318443/SchwarzBlau_Zwischeneinigung-in-der-Nacht-auf-Samstag

[Tender Branson]

A new "Profil" magazine poll today shows that 46% of Austrians agree with Peter Pilz's decision not to take his seat in parliament after the allegations of sexual misconduct against him.

33% regret his decision.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-knapp-haelfte-rueckzug-pilz-8423948

[Tender Branson]

A new Market poll for the "Standard" (Nov. 6-9, n=1030) shows that Austrians are quite happy with the coming ÖVP-FPÖ government.

* By a 42-29 margin, Austrians think the election results are good for the country's future.

* By a 49-31 margin, they approve of the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition talks.

* By a 52-31 margin, they think a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition would be better than a SPÖ-ÖVP grand coalition.

* By a 53-26 margin, they think that Kurz will beat out Strache in the talks.

* 70% think the coalition will be formed quickly.

* And by a 58-32 margin, voters think that Austria should decide fully on its own which government to form, rather than taking into account a good reputation abroad and concerns from abroad about how bad a FPÖ-coalition participation would be.

By party and gender:



FPÖ-voters, ÖVP-voters and men are the most likely to give a damn about international reputation.

SPÖ-voters, Green-voters and NEOS-voters (slightly) want to factor in international concerns.

http://derstandard.at/2000067668158/Umfrage-Grosses-Vertrauen-in-eine-kleine-Koalition

How would Austrians vote now ?

31% ÖVP (-0.5)
28% SPÖ (+1)
26% FPÖ (n.c.)
  5% NEOS (n.c.)
  4% Greens (n.c.)
  4% Pilz (n.c.)
  2% Others

[Tender Branson]

Not much coming out of the ÖVP-FPÖ talks right now, only that the topic "security, border control, fight against political Islam, deportations etc." is almost done.

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5319920/SchwarzBlau-zu-Ambulanzgebuehr-und-Tempolimits_Berichte-frei-erfunden

ÖVP-FPÖ also say that reports about introducing ER fees to stop the overcrowding there and the abolition of highway speed limits are "fake news".

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen:

"I will not swear in Vilimsky & Gudenus as cabinet members."



http://derstandard.at/2000067879347/Van-der-Bellen-nennt-Vilimsky-und-Gudenus-nicht-ministrabel

Probably because one looks like Voldemort and the other is the son of a Holocaust-denier ...

[Beezer]

Is this North Korea with trans-generational punishment?

[Omega21]

Probably because one looks like Voldemort and the other is the son of a Holocaust-denier ...

Is he also a denier? I thought the FPÖ had a strict policy against that...

[Tender Branson]

Probably because one looks like Voldemort and the other is the son of a Holocaust-denier ...

Is he also a denier? I thought the FPÖ had a strict policy against that...

No, but he (and Vilimsky) are otherwise controversial. See here:

http://derstandard.at/2000067956510/Warum-Gudenus-und-Vilimsky-wohl-auf-Van-der-Bellens-schwarzer

[DavidB.]

Difficult one. I don't know who I dislike more: the antidemocratic senile grandfather or the dangerous nutjob who would hand over all of Austria's classified information to Russia.

[Tender Branson]

Today, Kurz and Strache updated the media and public about their talks and announced that the big topic "Security, Immigration, Defense" has been fully agreed on and they announced some major points of their program:

* Welfare "light" for foreigners. Like in Upper Austria, asylum seekers will only get a cap of 320€ in basic welfare payments, with another cap of 1500€ for families. They also want a uniform welfare system for all states (Vienna is currently the most generous in paying welfare) and if necessary, take Vienna to court if they do not follow the new law.

* Welfare only after 5 years of legal entry into Austria and no crimes committed. Both Kurz and Strache said: "We are against people picking and choosing which countries and welfare systems they are heading to, after entering several safe countries. We want a system that ecourages people to be taxpayers and not welfare recipients."

* Deportations will be increased, especially those of criminal foreign offenders.



* The goal of the coaliton will be "zero illegal immigration" and even legal immigration (which is still high, mostly from the EU) could be targeted because they want to reform the Red-White-Red Card for skilled immigrants by not including as many needed job listings (they can be done by Austrians too).

* Citizenship is only possible after 10 years (currently 6 years) and only after legal entry into the country and no criminal record.

* Payment system for the police will be reformed to make the job "police officer" more attractive. Better equipment will be provided and more police officers will be added.

* Creating of a national Cyber-Security Center, with resources from the Interior-, Foreign- and Defense Ministries being merged to make it more effective.

* Better surveillance and prevention methods for Jihadists and those who came back from war zones to prevent attacks. The FPÖ was against a mass surveillance/data storage law, so this will not be introduced (was ruled unconstitutional anyway already). The ÖVP wants a glipmse into WhatsApp messages, but the FPÖ said that's only possible with a warrant by a judge (which was agreed on).

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5322444/OeVP-und-FPOe-planen-Mindestsicherung-light-fuer-Asylberechtigte

[Tender Branson]

Difficult one. I don't know who I dislike more: the antidemocratic senile grandfather or the dangerous nutjob who would hand over all of Austria's classified information to Russia.

Gudenus Sen. has already died last year, so ...

But yeah, some within the ÖVP (and Van der Bellen) actually worry about handing the Interior, Foreign or Defense Ministries to the FPÖ - because of their connections to Russia.

That's why today, Karin Kneissl, a Middle-East and terror expert and journalist with previous diplomatic experience was mentioned as a compromise candidate (Strache recently asked her if she wants to become Foreign Minister and she accepted - as an Independent in the coalition to "serve the country"):



https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/auf-fpoe-ticket-nahostexpertin-karin-kneissl-will-aussenministerin-werden/298.482.566

[DavidB.]

Any interesting foreign policy changes to be expected on Serbia, Republika Srpska, or Herceg-Bosna?

[Tender Branson]

Any interesting foreign policy changes to be expected on Serbia, Republika Srpska, or Herceg-Bosna?

Nothing really specific yet, because Europe/Foreign policy are still part of the talks and not finished yet. I could see an effort for quicker EU-integration/membership though, because both the ÖVP and FPÖ are Balkan-friendly.

[Tender Branson]

Monthly "Profil" magazine poll by Unique Research:

32% ÖVP (+0.5)
28% SPÖ (+1.1)
24% FPÖ (-2.0)
  6% NEOS (+0.7)
  6% Greens (+2.2)
  2% Pilz (-2.4)
  2% Others (-0.1)

Chancellor vote:

34% Kurz (ÖVP)
31% Kern (SPÖ)
15% Strache (FPÖ)

"In retrospect, how happy are you with your vote choice on Oct. 15 ?"

85% Very happy/I have no regrets
  6% I made the wrong decision
  9% Undecided

"What do you think about the Greens not being represented in parliament any longer ?"

63% Don't mind it
33% I regret it that they are out

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20171118_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-kanzlerfrage-kurz-stabil-an-der-spitze

[Tender Branson]

Between 3.000 (according to the police) and 10.000 people (organisers) recently demonstrated in Vienna against the FPÖ in government with a sea of candles:





That is much lower than the 200.000 demonstrators after the 1999 election, in which ÖVP-FPÖ formed a government.

[Tender Branson]

The City of Vienna (Red-Green government) said it wants to vigorously fight plans by the coming federal ÖVP-FPÖ government to reduce welfare payments for foreigners:

http://derstandard.at/2000068057377/Wien-will-sich-bei-Kuerzung-der-Mindestsicherung-wehren

Vienna politicians say the measures (ÖVP-FPÖ could take Vienna to court if they do not follow their lower welfare policies) are "anti-social", will lead to increased child poverty and a significant increase in crime.

ÖVP-FPÖ argue that Vienna has been a magnet for foreigners and welfare abusers and that the city is creating a growing network of dependent persons, while ÖVP-FPÖ want people to become self-confident taxpayers or entrepreneurs instead.

[parochial boy]

So, here's the thing on reducing welfare payments to foreigners.

By creating a two tier welfare system you are effectively creating a situation where immigrants are far more desperate to find work, and, as a result, far more likely to accept appaling working conditions than "natives" - flat out rejecting welfare for newcomers would only exacerbate this.

Seems to me, this is a form of social dumping that is mainly going to benefit the patronat, at the expense of the rest of the country - and will push down salaries and working conditions even further.

So, expected for a right wing government.

[Zinneke]

So, here's the thing on reducing welfare payments to foreigners.

By creating a two tier welfare system you are effectively creating a situation where immigrants are far more desperate to find work, and, as a result, far more likely to accept appaling working conditions than "natives" - flat out rejecting welfare for newcomers would only exacerbate this.

Seems to me, this is a form of social dumping that is mainly going to benefit the patronat, at the expense of the rest of the country - and will push down salaries and working conditions even further.

So, expected for a right wing government.

You've summed up why I cannot stomach the RWPP. Its a self-fulfilling prophecy. You deny a minority public services, they form an identity based on the institutional discrimination, and then you wonder why they no longer identify with the "values" that you imposed on the national identity.

It makes the right-wing populists salivate though, because minority-interest parties are exactly the kind of diversion they need to convince the rest of the population to rally around them.

They are exacerbating this problem, because they need to stay relevant as a long-term political force.

[Tender Branson]

So, here's the thing on reducing welfare payments to foreigners.

By creating a two tier welfare system you are effectively creating a situation where immigrants are far more desperate to find work, and, as a result, far more likely to accept appaling working conditions than "natives" - flat out rejecting welfare for newcomers would only exacerbate this.

Seems to me, this is a form of social dumping that is mainly going to benefit the patronat, at the expense of the rest of the country - and will push down salaries and working conditions even further.

So, expected for a right wing government.

I do not agree with this: The cuts to welfare payments for foreigners are planned to encourage illegals and economic migrants to leave the country and to send a signal to the rest of the world.

Welfare payments to foreigners should not be an entitlement, you should rather earn it. I'd be even tougher than ÖVP+FPÖ on this issue and would only grant any welfare payments to foreigners after 10 years of legal stay in the country, no crimes committed and 75% of the period in employment. People who come to the country need to stand on their own feet and contribute to that country's development before claiming money.

You as a Swiss should know how this works: welfare payments in Switzerland are quite a bit lower than here (adjusted for the high wage levels and more in line with Upper Austria actually) and just in September the city of Zurich had a referendum in which a majority voted in favour of scrapping welfare payments for recently arrived foreigners from about 800€ per month to just 300€ per month. Yet unemployment in the country is low, even among foreigners. Why ? Because the system does not allow "welfare magnetism" and encourages tax-paying employment rather than dependency.

We'll definitely need to get rid of that silly, utopian welfare magnetism for foreigners and make clear that this is only for native people and especially those native people who have paid into the system for years - rather than for people who just come and pick and choose and think they are entitled to something ... These people have no place here.

[Tender Branson]

New Spectra poll for the OÖN newspaper, for Upper Austria (next state election in 2021) shows that the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition is more popular than ever before:

42% ÖVP (2015 state election: 36%)
34% FPÖ (30%)
15% SPÖ (18%)
  5% Greens (10%)
  3% NEOS (4%)
  1% Others

Gov. Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP) gets a 72-10 approval rating, while Vice-Governor Manfred Haimbuchner (FPÖ) gets a 51-36 approval rating.

Upper Austrian voters are also happy with the direction of the state, with 56% saying "we are currently living in happy times" while 41% say in "difficult times".

Poll was conducted between Oct. 23 and Nov. 3 and 800 people were surveyed.

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/Schwarz-blaue-Dominanz-und-gruener-Absturz-auch-in-Oberoesterreich;art383,2736018

[Tender Branson]

First poll so far (OGM/Kurier) for Lower Austria (state elections on Jan. 28th):



"Sun King" Erwin Pröll retired early this year after 25 years as Lower Austrian Governor.

Johanna Mikl-Leitner, former Austrian Interior Minister and the first female Governor, took over - and while not winning an absolute majority* like Pröll did in the last few elections, she still gets a remarkable 45% (OGM is the best pollster, so this should be accurate).

* Lower Austria has a 4% threshold, so it depends if NEOS and Greens make it into parliament. Currently, it would be 45-45 and Mikl-Leitner/ÖVP could get an absolute majority or not. Nonetheless, Lower Austria is one of the few remaining states with Proporz-government, meaning every party with a certain level of support (~10%) will automatically get a cabinet post. Currently, the ÖVP has an absolute majority in parliament but still entered a coalition with the SPÖ. Plus, FPÖ and Team Stronach have government posts ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/oevp-liegt-vorne-aber-rot-und-blau-holen-auf/298.619.047

[Tender Branson]

Difficult one. I don't know who I dislike more: the antidemocratic senile grandfather or the dangerous nutjob who would hand over all of Austria's classified information to Russia.

Gudenus Sen. has already died last year, so ...

But yeah, some within the ÖVP (and Van der Bellen) actually worry about handing the Interior, Foreign or Defense Ministries to the FPÖ - because of their connections to Russia.

That's why today, Karin Kneissl, a Middle-East and terror expert and journalist with previous diplomatic experience was mentioned as a compromise candidate (Strache recently asked her if she wants to become Foreign Minister and she accepted - as an Independent in the coalition to "serve the country"):



https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/auf-fpoe-ticket-nahostexpertin-karin-kneissl-will-aussenministerin-werden/298.482.566

Kneissl will definitely become the new Foreign Minister, Strache (FPÖ) confirmed today:

http://www.krone.at/599241

Which means Norbert Hofer is out and will likely remain 3rd Parliamentary President.

I'm pretty sure that Hofer will not become Minister for Agriculture and the Environment (he's the FPÖ's speaker on these issues) - because the ÖVP will demand this ministry as one of theirs.