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Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0  (Read 163358 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #100 on: November 18, 2017, 02:14:19 PM »

So, here's the thing on reducing welfare payments to foreigners.

By creating a two tier welfare system you are effectively creating a situation where immigrants are far more desperate to find work, and, as a result, far more likely to accept appaling working conditions than "natives" - flat out rejecting welfare for newcomers would only exacerbate this.

Seems to me, this is a form of social dumping that is mainly going to benefit the patronat, at the expense of the rest of the country - and will push down salaries and working conditions even further.

So, expected for a right wing government.

I do not agree with this: The cuts to welfare payments for foreigners are planned to encourage illegals and economic migrants to leave the country and to send a signal to the rest of the world.

Welfare payments to foreigners should not be an entitlement, you should rather earn it. I'd be even tougher than ÖVP+FPÖ on this issue and would only grant any welfare payments to foreigners after 10 years of legal stay in the country, no crimes committed and 75% of the period in employment. People who come to the country need to stand on their own feet and contribute to that country's development before claiming money.

You as a Swiss should know how this works: welfare payments in Switzerland are quite a bit lower than here (adjusted for the high wage levels and more in line with Upper Austria actually) and just in September the city of Zurich had a referendum in which a majority voted in favour of scrapping welfare payments for recently arrived foreigners from about 800€ per month to just 300€ per month. Yet unemployment in the country is low, even among foreigners. Why ? Because the system does not allow "welfare magnetism" and encourages tax-paying employment rather than dependency.

We'll definitely need to get rid of that silly, utopian welfare magnetism for foreigners and make clear that this is only for native people and especially those native people who have paid into the system for years - rather than for people who just come and pick and choose and think they are entitled to something ... These people have no place here.

And yet, Switzerland has substantially higher levels of immigration than Austria; so if the intention of lower welfare payments is to discourage foreigners from coming to Austria, it isn't going to make a difference. (immigrants are precisely encouraged to come to Switzerland because of the high wages)

Probably, a better indication of what a two tier welfare system will get you is by looking at the fact that the frontalier cantons (Geneva, Neuchatel, Ticino) are the cantons with the most significant unemployment (and often lower wages), even though they are all among the richest cantons on a GDP per capita basis. The fact that frontaliers living in Italy or France, with lower wages and cost of living; means that employers can get away with paying lower salaries to people who are much more willing to take them. That is exactly what you will get in Austria if you make one segment of the population more desperate than another.

(I think the solution to this is by introducing a minimum wage, and making employers, rather than French communes, responsible for the lost-tax refund; intead of cracking down on G permits, but that is a different issue)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #101 on: November 18, 2017, 03:03:46 PM »


lol, not even Stronach collapsed this quickly.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #102 on: November 18, 2017, 03:11:56 PM »

* And by a 58-32 margin, voters think that Austria should decide fully on its own which government to form, rather than taking into account a good reputation abroad and concerns from abroad about how bad a FPÖ-coalition participation would be.

By party and gender:



FPÖ-voters, ÖVP-voters and men are the most likely to give a damn about international reputation.

SPÖ-voters, Green-voters and NEOS-voters (slightly) want to factor in international concerns.

You probably mean to "not give a damn"
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #103 on: November 19, 2017, 08:05:12 AM »

* And by a 58-32 margin, voters think that Austria should decide fully on its own which government to form, rather than taking into account a good reputation abroad and concerns from abroad about how bad a FPÖ-coalition participation would be.

By party and gender:



FPÖ-voters, ÖVP-voters and men are the most likely to give a damn about international reputation.

SPÖ-voters, Green-voters and NEOS-voters (slightly) want to factor in international concerns.

You probably mean to "not give a damn"

Yepp. Thx.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #104 on: November 19, 2017, 08:28:52 AM »

Strache re-elected as Vienna FPÖ-leader today with 99.1% of the delegates.

http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2879023
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #105 on: November 20, 2017, 12:51:32 PM »

With 1/5 big chapters agreed on, ÖVP/FPÖ talks will move a good chunk forward this week, with 30 meetings of the various subgroups planned for the 5 days:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/koalition-die-regierung-soll-bis-weihnachten-stehen/298.866.970

There will likely be another press statement by Kurz/Strache on Friday, to update everyone on the progress.

The plan is still to have the new government in place before Christmas, but Kurz/Strache also don't mind it being presented after the Christmas holidays. They said they want a "good government deal" even if it takes a while, rather than fight about it afterwards like SPÖ and ÖVP before.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #106 on: November 20, 2017, 01:02:56 PM »

Today, the Carinthia state election has been set for March 4, 2018:

http://derstandard.at/2000068148000/Kaernten-waehlt-am-4-Maerz

A tight battle for 1st place is expected between SPÖ and FPÖ.

Also, it will be the first election after Carinthia changed its state constitution to a coalition-government and away from the Proporz-system, in which every party with a certain support gets a government post.

Before Carinthia, Lower Austria will vote on January 28 and Tyrol on February 25.

Salzburg will vote on April 22.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #107 on: November 21, 2017, 12:31:29 PM »

A strange dinner protocoll has emerged today in Austrian media, which has President Van der Bellen apparently mocking Sebastian Kurz as an "irritating young man, who doesn't drink alcohol and coffee and doesn't smoke" and also mocking right-wing voters.

Both the presidential office and a host that was present at the dinner (the Estonian ambassador) denied the remarks, or at least said that they were taken vastly out of context.

Even the FPÖ "defends" Van der Bellen and says the SPÖ is behind it (after the Silberstein scandal, they are now trying again to destroy ÖVP-FPÖ), FPÖ's Kickl said.

http://orf.at/#/stories/2415810
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #108 on: November 21, 2017, 12:38:37 PM »

Apparent quote from Van der Bellen at the Hotel Imperal dinner on Nov. 10th:



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #109 on: November 21, 2017, 12:55:03 PM »

The "Kurier" reports that the VdB dinner protocoll might be the secret work of a diplomat from a "Visegrad country" who was present and the intention was to make VdB look foolish and strenghten ÖVP/FPÖ's position ...

Also, some of the controversial remarks might be because of bad translation into English and vice-versa. According to some other diplomat who were present, VdB actually said "Kurz is a humble young man", not an "irritating" one ...

But the (anonymous) diplomats also said that many parts of the protocoll were correct (such as VdB saying that he will refuse to swear in some FPÖ ministers) and that "the dirty campaigning in Austria seems to continue even after the election" ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/intrige-um-bundespraesident-alexander-van-der-bellen-das-protokoll-ist-ein-fake/299.029.153
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #110 on: November 21, 2017, 08:31:30 PM »

Apparent quote from Van der Bellen at the Hotel Imperal dinner on Nov. 10th:



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He's really in touch with the voters Roll Eyes
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #111 on: November 23, 2017, 12:03:16 PM »

ÖVP/FPÖ have made more progress, with Kurz and Strache announcing a new "digital agenda" for Austria in a press statement today:



http://derstandard.at/2000068317135-1602/OeVP-und-FPOe-wollen-Steuerflucht-von-Web-Firmen-unterbinden

* Every citizen and company can set up a super-secure digital account (similar to the Estonian model), which will make it much easier to found a company and deal with local authorities (for example if you need a birth certificate etc.) Citizens can also have access 24/7/365 to their passports, personal ID cards, health card, driver licence etc. in digital form anywhere on the planet via an app. Strache said this will help beat bureaucracy and make Austria one of the leading and business-friendly e-government nations.

* make Austria a leader in 5G-network coverage, with big investments into new network infrastructure (= fastest internet even in rural areas).

* digital in-country tax requirement for large international companies such as Google, Amazon etc.: the plan is to require these companies to register an Austrian headquarter, which forces them to pay taxes here if they do business. Currently, big companies almost pay nothing here.

* creation of a national digital education platform, in which every citizen can educate themselves on various topics. Universities, economic groups etc. will be used as partners.

Finally, Kurz+Strache said: "We want to make it better than Germany." (= a broadside against Merkel and the failing talks there.)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #112 on: November 24, 2017, 01:02:44 PM »

The most important news coming out of the coalition talks today was that Norbert Hofer has grown a beard:

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Hnv1
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« Reply #113 on: November 25, 2017, 05:30:24 AM »

ÖVP/FPÖ have made more progress, with Kurz and Strache announcing a new "digital agenda" for Austria in a press statement today:



http://derstandard.at/2000068317135-1602/OeVP-und-FPOe-wollen-Steuerflucht-von-Web-Firmen-unterbinden

* Every citizen and company can set up a super-secure digital account (similar to the Estonian model), which will make it much easier to found a company and deal with local authorities (for example if you need a birth certificate etc.) Citizens can also have access 24/7/365 to their passports, personal ID cards, health card, driver licence etc. in digital form anywhere on the planet via an app. Strache said this will help beat bureaucracy and make Austria one of the leading and business-friendly e-government nations.

* make Austria a leader in 5G-network coverage, with big investments into new network infrastructure (= fastest internet even in rural areas).

* digital in-country tax requirement for large international companies such as Google, Amazon etc.: the plan is to require these companies to register an Austrian headquarter, which forces them to pay taxes here if they do business. Currently, big companies almost pay nothing here.

* creation of a national digital education platform, in which every citizen can educate themselves on various topics. Universities, economic groups etc. will be used as partners.

Finally, Kurz+Strache said: "We want to make it better than Germany." (= a broadside against Merkel and the failing talks there.)
Will the new digital account me mandatory? Or opt out/pot in?
Would it require fingerprints for identification?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #114 on: November 25, 2017, 05:31:11 AM »

ÖVP-FPÖ have talked until midnight yesterday.

According to "Profil" magazine and the APA, they agreed on various measures such as a better kindergarten education (a mandatory 2nd kindergarten year + better integration efforts for children who come from non-German speaking families).

They also agreed on the size of the tax cut (5.2 Bio. €), which is far away from the 12-14 Bio. € that both ÖVP and FPÖ were talking about in their campaign platforms (but I already said a few months ago that is is only campaign talk and nothing more. A size like this was always unrealistic, considering the budgetary situation). It looks like they will pass it either next year or in 2019 and it will take effect a year later.

ÖVP and FPÖ also want to raise pensions to a minimum of 1.200€ per month (14x per year), for everyone who has paid 40 years into the system.

They also said that talks in many of the 25 groups have almost come to a conclusion, yet there are other areas such as direct democracy, the smoking ban and the reform of the social partnership in which they are still struggling to find a compromise.

http://orf.at/stories/2416356/2416355
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #115 on: November 25, 2017, 05:34:37 AM »

Will the new digital account me mandatory? Or opt out/pot in?
Would it require fingerprints for identification?

From what Strache and Kurz said in the press conference, it will definitely be opt-in and not mandatory.

And no fingerprints. Fingerprints are only necessary right now when applying for a new passport.

I think the new digital e-government system will run along the current tax-return system, in which applicants will get a series of personal codes to secure their account ...

I already use this system when I file my taxes and I like it. Security concerns are always there, but I guess it's considered safe.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #116 on: November 25, 2017, 06:00:26 AM »

The Lower Austria state election on Jan. 28th has come into the spotlight recently, because of the tirades of the (new) FPÖ frontrunner there and the 3rd on the FPÖ's state list:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/entgleisung-fpoe-spitzenkandidat-udo-landbauer-nennt-mikl-leitner-moslem-mama-mikl/298.739.826

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Skandal-Posting-Wirbel-um-FPOe-Kandidatin/310332518

Udo Landbauer, the frontrunner, referred to Gov. Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP) as "muslim mom" recently who "does nothing to stop the Islamisation".

Vesna Schuster, the 3rd on their list, has viciously attacked a Norbert Hofer opponent on Facebook during the 2016 presidential campaign:



Parts read: "This creature can vote ?"

---

Also interesting is the fact that both Landbauer and Schuster are FPÖ-politicians with a migration background: Landbauer's mother is from Iran, while Schuster's parents are from the former Yugoslavia.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #117 on: November 25, 2017, 07:32:59 AM »

Ö24's new, by-weekly poll has no significant changes:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #118 on: November 25, 2017, 08:00:18 AM »

Tomorrow, the first round of the mayoral by-election in the City of Salzburg will take place.

There are 6 candidates:



From left: Andreas Reindl (FPÖ), Christoph Ferch (Independent), Harald Preuner (ÖVP)
Bernhard Auinger (SPÖ), Johann Padutsch (Greens) and Barbara Unterkofler (Neos).


Outgoing mayor Heinz Schaden from the SPÖ (retiring after 18 years) is leaving behind a debt-free city (actually, the city has 90 million in debts - but 150 million € in assets). Also, the debt level has fallen from 200 million € to 90 million since Schaden started his term.

Still, Preuner (ÖVP) has the best chances to win the first round and not Auinger, the SPÖ candidate.

Why ?

Despite the fact that city voters give outgoing mayor Schaden a 61-16 approval rating (according to a recent SN poll), voters also favour a continuation of the strict savings policies that Schaden implemented - while only doing modest investments. By a 57-32 margin, voters favour the saving over more investments and more debts.

That savings policy is exactly what Preuner favours as well. He's also the current acting Mayor of the city and has a small incumbency bonus. Auinger on the other hand wants more investments, even if the debt increases.

It is likely that Preuner will end up with around 40% tomorrow, Auinger with 35%, and the Green and NEOS candidates with around 10% each. The FPÖ candidate and Ferch will play no role and will combine for 5% (which would be a record-low for the FPÖ there).

Other important topics included the traffic and housing situation in the city.

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/politik/salzburg-heinz-schadens-sparkurs-kommt-immer-noch-gut-an-20687632

A runoff, which seems likely, will be held on December 10.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #119 on: November 25, 2017, 11:51:34 AM »

The Vienna Greens held a "crisis" convention today, well ... actually it was a "future strategy" convention ... Tongue

As we all know, the Austrian Greens and their splinter (List Pilz) are currently in full self-destruction mode and they don't like each other either.



Maria Vassilakou, the longtime Vienna Green leader, is badly damaged as leader on her own after the federal debacle but also because of the Heymarket highrise investment debacle - which she supported, but which was rejected by a majority of the Green base in a membership vote. It is unclear if she survived today's confidence vote (journalists were not allowed during the debates and votes during the afternoon) and a result will only be known in the evening.



In Lower Austria, the "Pilz" List might run (or not ?) and keep the Greens out of the state parliament on Jan. 28th ...

In Carinthia, the Greens also split: After it turned out that the Greens allowed asylum seekers to vote in their state convention (which was illegal), a leading politician founded a new list called "F.A.I.R" ("For all interested reformers"), which might compete along the Greens and the List "Pilz" - but all 3 look pretty dead there ... Tongue

The Greens in Salzburg and Tyrol (who will also have state elections early next year) are fine for now, but they will lose significant support as well (the Salzburg Greens got 20% in 2013 - I guess they will easily drop below 10% and the Tyrol Greens as well).

http://derstandard.at/2000068484393/Wiener-Gruene-diskutieren-ueber-Zukunft-der-Partei
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« Reply #120 on: November 25, 2017, 07:49:50 PM »

So, here's the thing on reducing welfare payments to foreigners.

By creating a two tier welfare system you are effectively creating a situation where immigrants are far more desperate to find work, and, as a result, far more likely to accept appaling working conditions than "natives" - flat out rejecting welfare for newcomers would only exacerbate this.

Seems to me, this is a form of social dumping that is mainly going to benefit the patronat, at the expense of the rest of the country - and will push down salaries and working conditions even further.

So, expected for a right wing government.

I do not agree with this: The cuts to welfare payments for foreigners are planned to encourage illegals and economic migrants to leave the country and to send a signal to the rest of the world.

Welfare payments to foreigners should not be an entitlement, you should rather earn it. I'd be even tougher than ÖVP+FPÖ on this issue and would only grant any welfare payments to foreigners after 10 years of legal stay in the country, no crimes committed and 75% of the period in employment. People who come to the country need to stand on their own feet and contribute to that country's development before claiming money.

You as a Swiss should know how this works: welfare payments in Switzerland are quite a bit lower than here (adjusted for the high wage levels and more in line with Upper Austria actually) and just in September the city of Zurich had a referendum in which a majority voted in favour of scrapping welfare payments for recently arrived foreigners from about 800€ per month to just 300€ per month. Yet unemployment in the country is low, even among foreigners. Why ? Because the system does not allow "welfare magnetism" and encourages tax-paying employment rather than dependency.

We'll definitely need to get rid of that silly, utopian welfare magnetism for foreigners and make clear that this is only for native people and especially those native people who have paid into the system for years - rather than for people who just come and pick and choose and think they are entitled to something ... These people have no place here.
Good thread. I liked this post in particular. Austria owes migrants nothing. I suspect most would rather move to Germany for larger handouts than work for less in Austria. Of course, in the long run, different European countries pushing immigrants off on each other doesn't fix the problem. To do that, the flow across the Mediterranean must be stopped.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #121 on: November 26, 2017, 01:53:09 AM »

Good thread. I liked this post in particular. Austria owes migrants nothing. I suspect most would rather move to Germany for larger handouts than work for less in Austria. Of course, in the long run, different European countries pushing immigrants off on each other doesn't fix the problem. To do that, the flow across the Mediterranean must be stopped.

I agree.

The bold part is not entirely correct though: Germany doesn't have larger handouts for asylum seekers and economic migrants than Austria. Currently, single asylum seekers get 850€ per month in most Austrian states. For families, it is much higher - there have been cases where an Afghan family got up to 8.000€ per month.

Some states like Upper Austria have now capped welfare payments to foreigners at 1.500€ for families and 365€ for single persons (+ 165€ per month as an "integration bonus", meaning they only get this surplus payment if they sign a contract that they will either work, or visit an employment/education course and live along Austrian values, => not commit crimes such as domestic violence and abuse against women).

Lower Austria's welfare is slightly higher at 560€, much like Burgenland's. All other states are still paying the 850€ per month + additional housing benefits if necessary.

---

In Germany on the other hand, asylum seekers get only 350€ in cash payments per month - but the state is paying for most of the needed utilities, such as housing.

Considering the average rent in Germany is around 400-600€ per month, they spend roughly the same amount as we do in Austria on asylum seekers.

As a total sum, Germany currently spends ca. 30 Bio. € a year on asylum seekers + their integration efforts, Austria roughly 3 Bio. € per year (considering it has only 1/10 of the German population).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #122 on: November 26, 2017, 01:59:23 AM »

The Vienna Greens held a "crisis" convention today ...

Maria Vassilakou, the longtime Vienna Green leader, is badly damaged as leader on her own (and) it is unclear if she survived today's confidence vote (journalists were not allowed during the debates and votes during the afternoon) and a result will only be known in the evening.

Vassilakou survived the confidence vote with 75% of the delegate votes that were cast and will continue to limp along as Vienna Green leader for the next year (which is when they will either re-elect her as frontrunner for the 2020 state election, or choose a new party leader).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #123 on: November 26, 2017, 03:44:06 AM »

One of the biggest hurdles remaining in the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition talks is how direct democracy should be strengthened.

Both ÖVP and FPÖ want more direct democracy, but the FPÖ wants a Swiss model in which only 4% of eligible voters can initiate a referendum with their signatures (=240.000 signatures), but the ÖVP wants a threshold of 10% (=640.000 signatures).

Also, the ÖVP's Köstinger said today that they want to create a system which makes sure there are no campaigns worth millions of € (like in the US), that there's no influence from radical outside groups and no influence from abroad (Russia, Turkey etc.)

Voters will likely get a neutral government booklet with arguments for and against for each referendum topic, like in Switzerland. And maybe a hurdle of 7-8% of eligible voters.

Both ÖVP and FPÖ also agreed that issues that are against the Austrian Constitution or Human/European rights are not subject to referendums (such as the death penalty).

http://orf.at/#/stories/2416457
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #124 on: November 26, 2017, 11:54:53 AM »

Tomorrow, the first round of the mayoral by-election in the City of Salzburg will take place.

There are 6 candidates:



From left: Andreas Reindl (FPÖ), Christoph Ferch (Independent), Harald Preuner (ÖVP)
Bernhard Auinger (SPÖ), Johann Padutsch (Greens) and Barbara Unterkofler (Neos).


(...)

A runoff, which seems likely, will be held on December 10.

Results:

35% Preuner (ÖVP) => runoff
32% Auinger (SPÖ) => runoff

12% Padutsch (Greens)
11% Unterkofler (NEOS)
  7% Reindl (FPÖ)
  3% Ferch (Indy)

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2880512

Based on these results, the runoff should be really close ...
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