Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Here's an infographic for the Tyrol state election in 3 weeks:

(right-click for big version)



Of the 8 parties running, 4 have women as frontrunners and 4 men (one man is actually missing in the infographic, Josef Schett from the "Impuls" party).

The Tyrol state election will be very interesting, because there are some 22-25% of votes from 2013 parties that are not competing in the 2018 election any longer or are guaranteed to lose support compared with their 2013 levels:

9.54% Vorwärts Tirol
4.84% BürgerKlub-Tirol
3.36% Team Stronach
0.73% Für Tirol
0.53% KPÖ
0.38% Piraten Partei Tirol

Plus about 2.6-3.6% from the Greens and maybe some 1.6% from the FRITZ list.

I think the ÖVP will gain the most from of these defunct/losing parties, followed by the FPÖ and NEOS. The SPÖ should gain moderately as well.

The economy is doing very well in Tyrol, unemployment and debt is low - which are the main reasons I believe the ÖVP could win an absolute majority this time (or come close to it).

[Tender Branson]

Health and anti-cancer experts, activists and doctors are launching a petition drive to kill ÖVP/FPÖ's plan to scrap the full smoking ban that would become law on May 1:

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https://www.thelocal.at/20180203/austrian-doctors-launch-anti-smoking-petition

Good. I may sign this. A full smoking ban is really needed.

[Tender Branson]

My home state of Salzburg will also have a state election, on April 22.

For this, the state parliament officially called the election on Thursday - which means parties who want to compete can collect signatures between February 8 and March 14.

For parties to appear on the ballot, they either need the signatures of 3 MPs in the state parliament or 600 signatures from eligible voters (100 in each of the 6 districts).

4 parties have the signatures of the 3 MPs and are already on the ballot:

* ÖVP
* SPÖ
* Greens
* FPS (Free Party Salzburg - List Karl Schnell)

6 parties will have to collect signatures from voters:

* FPÖ (the FPS split from the FPÖ in a real bitchfight and took 5 of the 6 state MPs with them)
* NEOS
* SBG (Salzburg Citizen Association - List Hans Mayr, ex-Team Stronach MP)
* FWS (Free Voters Salzburg - List Walter Naderer, ex-Team Stronach MP)
* KPÖ+ (Communist Party + Young Greens)
* CPÖ (Christian Party)

The "List Pilz" won't run in any state election this year while the Pirate Party and the Team Stronach, who did run in 2013, are both defunct by now.

Btw: the current state government is ÖVP+Greens (plus a few former Team Stronach people, who switched sides to the ÖVP).

I'm currently very undecided about my vote in the state election ...

Of the 10 parties who might be on the ballot, only 3 seem electable for me right now:

ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS. You can forget all the others.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-FPÖ have agreed on their next big topic:

Increasing the minimum punishments for sex crimes and especially crimes against children, who are in fact way too low. You can walk out of prison after 6 months under current laws for molesting a child for example.

Kurz and Strache want to significantly increase the minimum punishments for these molesters.

The law is being drafted by State Secretary in the Ministry of Interior, Karoline Edtstadler (ÖVP), who was a judge before becoming cabinet member and has vast knowledge of the laws.



It will become law on Jan. 1, 2019.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5365610/Hoehere-Strafen-bei-Gewalt_Edtstadler-richtet-Taskforce-ein

Excellent.

[Tender Branson]

A new Kurier/OGM poll shows that Austrians are still quite happy with the ÖVP-FPÖ government:

50% approve
33% disapprove
17% say that their work is comparable with the previous Kern-government

Austrian voters also approve of the new Vienna-SPÖ leader and mayor Michael Ludwig.

[Omega21]

Health and anti-cancer experts, activists and doctors are launching a petition drive to kill ÖVP/FPÖ's plan to scrap the full smoking ban that would become law on May 1:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.thelocal.at/20180203/austrian-doctors-launch-anti-smoking-petition

Good. I may sign this. A full smoking ban is really needed.

This would be a step against personal freedom, and the current system should be kept. The current system of non-smoker and smoker areas has the best of both worlds, as the non-smokers are not affected. The "rise in public health" could also be achieved by banning fast-foods, sugar or alcohol, as the same amount of people (if not more) die of heart failure or diseases related to an unhealthy diet or alcohol abuse. It would be stupid to not allow someone to smoke in an area designed for that purpose because it affects no one else other than the smokers who choose to sit there. Or am I missing something here?

[Tender Branson]

Health and anti-cancer experts, activists and doctors are launching a petition drive to kill ÖVP/FPÖ's plan to scrap the full smoking ban that would become law on May 1:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.thelocal.at/20180203/austrian-doctors-launch-anti-smoking-petition

Good. I may sign this. A full smoking ban is really needed.

This would be a step against personal freedom, and the current system should be kept. The current system of non-smoker and smoker areas has the best of both worlds, as the non-smokers are not affected. The "rise in public health" could also be achieved by banning fast-foods, sugar or alcohol, as the same amount of people (if not more) die of heart failure or diseases related to an unhealthy diet or alcohol abuse. It would be stupid to not allow someone to smoke in an area designed for that purpose because it affects no one else other than the smokers who choose to sit there. Or am I missing something here?

Yes, the employees (= waiters/waitresses) under the current system.

Under the current system with smoking and non-smoking areas, employees also have to serve customers in the smoking areas, even if they are non-smokers themselves. This is a problem, because it violates employee protection rights, especially those female employees who are pregnant and where smoking could cause health problems to the unborn child. This is also a major attack point for opponents of the ÖVP-FPÖ plans if they indeed follow through with their plans.

[Tender Branson]

Detailed official Austrian population numbers for Jan. 1, 2018 were released today and changes during 2017.

Very interesting developments.

I will post a lengthy analysis over the weekend.

Key facts:

While population growth is still high (0.6%), it is down from the 1.3% in 2015 and 0.8% last year and the immigration surplus is becoming more "white" and European again (except for Syrians, which still had a +7.000 immigration surplus last year).

16% of the population is now made up of foreigners, with exactly 50% of them coming from EU/EFTA countries and the other 50% from non-EU/EFTA countries.

20% of the population is foreign-born and 25% have a migrant background.

Regional patterns:



Vienna+big cities+their suburbs are growing fast, while periphery areas are declining. One exception is the district of Braunau am Inn, which is usually also periphery, but has seen a lot of middle-class people from Salzburg move to the countryside recently - because the rents are too damn high in the City of Salzburg and it's only a 30 minute drive away.

[Tender Branson]

A really strange new internal poll for the March 4 state election in Carinthia, conducted for the Carinthia-ÖVP, was released today:

42-44% SPÖ (2013: 37%)
26-28% FPÖ (17%)
16-18% ÖVP (14%)
    5-6% TK (11%)
    3-4% Greens (12%)
    2-3% NEOS (0%)
    1-2% Others (9%)

http://www.krone.at/1632541

The lack of good polls for the Tyrol and Carinthia state elections is annoying.

[Tender Branson]

Some recent political news:

* Interior Minister Kickl (FPÖ) has announced that more countries will be added to the "safe" list in the coming week, meaning that asylum seekers from these countries can be deported there more easily (or at least that their asylum requests are more likely to be denied). Also, he announced that the legal status of an asylum seeker will now be re-evaluated every 1-2 years, rather than every 3 years because a country's situation can change to the better and these people should then be deported back to their home countries if the situation is better there.

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/tuerkis-blaue-koalition-nimmt-fluechtlinge-ins-visier/310.206.816

* The Kickl-Interior Ministry is also stepping up deportations this year: So far, already more planned deportation requests have been issued for 2018 than in the whole year 2017. Last year, about 7.000 people were deported (and another 5.000 left the country voluntarily). In US terms, that would be 265.000 deportations, or 455.000 "removals from the country" (voluntarily+forced).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/asyl-oesterreich-schiebt-ueber-frontex-in-mehr-laender-ab/310.125.530

* Here in Salzburg, 5 parties have signed a "fairness agreement" for the April 22 state election, limiting campaign spending to 1 million € per party and limiting the numbers of campaign posters and billboards to be put up in cities. ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens and SBG have signed.

https://derstandard.at/2000073895095/Salzburg-Fuenf-Parteien-unterzeichneten-Fairness-Abkommen

* An FPÖ-city councillor in Lower Austria has called male economic refugees "cowards" and "Untermenschen" (= subhumans), which is a Nazi term. Miriam Rydl attacked them for leaving behind and abandoning wife+children. Now the "funny" thing: She was reprimanded by her local FPÖ-leader for the remarks, a guy who posed with the Nazi-salute a few years back. He's still in the FPÖ and in office, despite of it - saying he only "greeted other people during a football game" ...

https://derstandard.at/2000073825654/Tullner-FPOe-Funktionaerin-postet-ueber-Untermenschen

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has invited Irish PM Leo Varadkar and Ukrainian President Petro Poroschenko to Vienna today.





Varadkar will also join Kurz and his girlfriend @ the Vienna Opera Ball tonight, as will Somali-Austrian model and women's rights activist Waris Dirie (together they also visited a domestic assault shelter for women today):

[Tender Branson]

A new Research Affairs poll for Ö24 has the FPÖ losing a point:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kurz-kann-Vorsprung-ausbauen/320999804

Also: With the Tyrol state election coming up in 2 weeks, the FPÖ-frontrunner there was followed by the public ORF TV during campaigning on the street.

At some point, a 86-year old man appeared who started talking about his time in the Hitler Youth and how they learned Zucht und Ordnung (= discipline and order) there. Then he talked about the "immigrant vermin" and "stinking Jews" ... (the FPÖ-frontrunner looked a bit uncomfortable, but kept on nodding).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wahlkampf-Eklat-um-Tiroler-FPOe-Chef-Abwerzger/321178387

[Tender Branson]

Some Green campaign posters/billboards for the Tyrol state election in 2 weeks:

    

Left: "Cut road transit/traffic in half. Are you in ?"

Right: "Environmental fighter. Are you in ?"

    

Left: "Don't bury Tyrol under concrete. Are you in ?"

Right: "Next stop: afforadable housing. Only with you !"

    

Left: "A Tyrol with heart instead of hatred. Only with you !"

Right: "Solar power ahead. Only with you !"


---


Good to see the Greens focusing more on their original issues again, such as environmental protection, traffic and affordable housing.

[Tender Branson]

Also: With the Tyrol state election coming up in 2 weeks, the FPÖ-frontrunner there was followed by the public ORF TV during campaigning on the street.

At some point, a 86-year old man appeared who started talking about his time in the Hitler Youth and how they learned Zucht und Ordnung (= discipline and order) there. Then he talked about the "immigrant vermin" and "stinking Jews" ... (the FPÖ-frontrunner looked a bit uncomfortable, but kept on nodding).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wahlkampf-Eklat-um-Tiroler-FPOe-Chef-Abwerzger/321178387

This incident is now backfiring ... on the public ORF broadcaster.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/stinkerte-juden-zib-beitrag-entlastet-fpoe-politiker/310.420.343

It turned out that the ORF did not show the whole encounter between the FPÖ-frontrunner and the 86-year old Nazi-leaning man from the street.

The ORF only showed the part where the FPÖ-frontrunner was listening to what the man had to say, while not showing the part afterwards in which he distanced himself from what the man just said and from any form of anti-semitism. Abwerzger (FPÖ) also explained to the ORF that he later argued with the man about the choice of his [really bad] words.

The ORF then did eventually broadcast the whole encounter ... the next day. That was a really bad foul committed by the ORF in my opinion.

[Tender Branson]

I'll continue my poster/billboard series for the Tyrol state election with the campaign of the ÖVP.

They are out with posters with just their popular Governor Günther Platter and his first and last name on them and no party logo:

  

"Tyrolian"                                                               "Worker"

  

Because the economy is booming in the state with record employment, low unemployment and virtually no debt + Kurz is still popular in federal politics, it's pretty clear that the Platter-ÖVP will have a result above 40%, maybe even getting an absolute majority again (some 46-49% would be needed for that).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This sounds exactly like the Llareggub community council election in 2012. Dai Bread topped the poll, ahead of Mrs Ogmore-Pritchard, Evans the Death, Organ Morgan and Mr Waldo (not elected).

[Tender Branson]

Strache (FPÖ-leader) in a Serb newspaper:

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https://derstandard.at/2000074038264/Strache-Kosovo-ist-zweifelsohne-ein-Bestandteil-Serbiens

[Tender Branson]

As for the April 22 state election here in Salzburg:

http://www.salzburg24.at/umfrage-84-prozent-mit-salzburger-landespolitik-zufrieden/5199648

It's a new (internal) poll conducted for the state ÖVP, showing that 84% (!) of voters here are happy with the state government (ÖVP+Greens).

In a direct vote for Governor, 70% would choose incumbent Wilfried Haslauer Jr. (his main rivals from the SPÖ, FPÖ and Greens are only getting 10% each).

2/3 of voters say that the state has changed for the better over the past 5 years and is moving in the right direction. Only 3% explicitly say it is not.

With these numbers, the ÖVP seems to be heading for a landslide victory and the Greens might get a result above 10% (which is down from their 20%, but still higher than average).

I'm also flirting with voting for the ÖVP in the election (mostly because the government has reduced the debt in the state by 400 million € over the past 5 years and the economy is booming), but SPÖ and NEOS also remain as options for me.

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) and the current federal Minister for Transport and Infrastructure has recently replaced 7 of the 8 members of the ÖBB board of directors (the ÖBB is the Austrian Railway).

Among them are ALL the members from the SPÖ, who have been replaced with FPÖ-leaning board members. The most prominent is Brigitte Ederer, one of the highest-ranking SPÖ politicians in the 1990s and who's now accusing Hofer and the FPÖ of "re-colouring" the railway and of a "coup". Hofer is calling her "whiny".

This is all very interesting because former Chancellor Christian Kern was CEO of the Railway before he became Chancellor, so it's virtually some sort of revenge act against him (the FPÖ has repeatedly attacked Kern for transporting 100.000s of illegal immigrants through Austria by train between 2015-16).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/ederer-fpoe-faerbt-in-unertraeglicher-form-um/310.506.705

[Tender Branson]

Market polls conducted in several waves after the Oct. 2017 federal election found that FPÖ-voters (who are traditionally very pessimistic about everything) are now optimistic when it comes to politics and personal satisfaction. Currently, SPÖ-voters are the most pessimistic.

Austrians as a whole are generally optimists (49%), rather than pessimists (22%). The rest are "neither".

The ÖVP-voters are the biggest optimists (66%), followed by Greens and NEOS-voters.

The FPÖ-voters were 28-41 before the election, but 46-23 now.

For SPÖ-voters it is 38-32.

Also, western states like Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg etc. have the most optimistic people, while Vienna and eastern states have the highest number of pessimists.

https://derstandard.at/2000074048495/FPOe-Waehler-kommen-dem-Optimismus-der-Restbevoelkerung-naeher

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ presented their "history commission" today, which will look into the FPÖ's past (and scandals) ... whatever this means.

Most "experts" on their commission are former or current FPÖ-members, but Strache has also invited the non-partisan and anti-nazi Documentation Centre of Austrian Resistance to participate in the committee (they said they will look into it and are positive about the invitation).

A first report is expected in the fall.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austrias-far-right-party-tries-to-clean-up-pro-nazi-image

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics-freedom-party/austrias-far-right-freedom-party-sets-up-panel-to-examine-its-past-idUSKCN1FX1PN

https://www.doew.at/english

Also today, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) has presented plans to invest more than 1 Bio. € this year into new roads, highways, new rail lines, tunnel and road repairs, more safety measures etc.



http://www.kleinezeitung.at/wirtschaft/5371071/Neubau-und-Erneuerung_Asfinag-investiert-11-Milliarden-Euro-in

[Tender Branson]

Austrian GDP was up by 3.1% last year in real terms:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8662991/2-14022018-BP-EN.pdf

That was higher than the Eurozone and EU-28, which both had 2.5% growth - the same as Germany.

---

Also, final polls for the February 25 Tyrol state election and the March 4 Carinthia state election are likely out over the weekend. There have been virtually none so far (only internal and/or old ones).

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz currently campaigning in Carinthia for the March 4 state election, a state where the ÖVP traditionally gets very low results:

https://www.facebook.com/kaerntnervolkspartei/videos/vb.52453892958/10156152554192959/?type=3&theater

Today is Ash Wednesday and usually only the FPÖ is holding "beer tent rallies" on this date. But this year, Kurz and the ÖVP is doing the same. His speech will come soon.

[Tender Branson]

With just 1 week until the Tyrol state election, the FPÖ there has filed a lawsuit against "unknown" because these fake-posters have appeared all over the state recently:

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Link

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz met his "friend", PM Netanyahu, today at the Munich Security Conference and both said that Israel's current boycott of FPÖ cabinet members might be lifted:



https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/5373389/Kurz-geht-von-Normalisierung-der-Beziehungen-zu-Israel-aus

https://www.thelocal.at/20180214/israeli-mp-urges-his-country-to-drop-its-absurd-boycott-of-austrias-foreign-minister