Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Interesting stuff:

Carinthia state election yesterday: SPÖ 48% (18 seats), FPÖ/ÖVP/TK 44% (18 seats).

No absolute majority.

Lower Austria state election January: ÖVP 49.6% (29 seats), SPÖ/FPÖ/Greens/NEOS 50.3% (27 seats).

Absolute majority for the ÖVP.

The difference is that there are different election laws in every state and how seats are allocated.

[DavidB.]

So do ÖVP, FPÖ and NEOS now have a majority for the balanced budget thing?

[Tender Branson]

So do ÖVP, FPÖ and NEOS now have a majority for the balanced budget thing?

Nope. It would have required massive gains in the state elections this year, so that they are gaining enough Bundesrat seats.

After all 4 state elections, it looks like they remain one seat short of a 2/3 majority (which they currently have in the Nationalrat).

But since ÖVP+FPÖ are already presenting a balanced budget for 2019, it's not that important anymore. Of course, long-term it would be nice to have a constitutional deficit and debt brake.

[mileslunn]

So what type of government will likely be formed.  With exactly half the seats will SPO go it alone or ask one of the other parties to join in a coalition with them?  Is it possible the three opposition parties will get together to form a government?

[Tender Branson]

So what type of government will likely be formed.  With exactly half the seats will SPO go it alone or ask one of the other parties to join in a coalition with them?  Is it possible the three opposition parties will get together to form a government?

After the 3 state elections so far this year, I think that:

* Lower Austria will get an ÖVP-SPÖ-FPÖ government (despite an absolute ÖVP majority) because of the Proporz system there, with maybe an all-party work agreement for state parliament work (incl. Greens and NEOS).

* Tyrol will continue with ÖVP-Greens

* Carinthia will get SPÖ-TK (after SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Damn thresholds suck.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP/FPÖ have agreed to freeze public party funding for this year (arguing that they wanna set an example in savings "within the system"):

http://orf.at/m/stories/2429136

Excellent news because Austria already has one of the highest public party financing systems in Europe.

[DavidB.]

They're on a roll! So inspiring, love it!

[Tender Branson]

What's happening this week ?

* the SPÖ is out for coalition partner in Tyrol. ÖVP-SPÖ blame each other for the failure. Which means Greens, FPÖ and NEOS remain as partners after intense first coalition talks (but the FPÖ is involved in another Hitler/Nazi-scandal there).

https://derstandard.at/2000075629802/Tiroler-Koalitionssuche-SPOe-nimmt-sich-nach-internen-Querelen-selbst-aus

* the SPÖ's strong result in the Carinthia state election actually led to the party getting 3 (!) seats out of 4 in the federal Bundesrat (the 2nd chamber of parliament). Which means they gained one seat. The FPÖ received the other and the ÖVP lost one. Which further means that ÖVP/FPÖ will come nowhere near a 2/3-majority this year in this chamber, because the SPÖ now has a veto-possibility when it comes to constitutional laws.

https://derstandard.at/2000075590533/Bundesrat-SPOe-nun-mit-Vetomoeglichkeit-bei-Verfassungsgesetzen

* Controversial FPÖ-MP Martin Graf has been severely beaten up by 4 unknown men about a month ago in Vienna, when Graf was at a subway station. Graf had to be taken to hospital for treatment. It is unknown if the attack was political or just a random attack.

https://derstandard.at/2000075619778/FPOe-Politiker-Graf-in-Wiener-U-Bahn-verpruegelt

* Lower Austria will officially get an ÖVP-SPÖ-FPÖ government. This despite the absolute ÖVP-majority in the Jan. 28 state election. A joint work agreement was announced today by the parties. Greens and NEOS will be the opposition parties. The new Lower Austrian state parliament and government will convene on March 22.

https://derstandard.at/2000075650633/Keine-Opposition-in-Niederoesterreichs-Proporzregierung

[Tender Branson]

Hungary's minister for the prime minister’s office, Janos Lazar, has created a controversy today by releasing a video about how Vienna's immigrant districts have turned into unrecognisable, dirty crime-ridden areas full of Muslims, areas where white Austrians have moved out of in droves and how this is a future threat to Budapest and Hungary (he's not totally wrong):

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-07/facebook-blocks-hungarian-minister-s-whites-vs-migrants-video

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The video is here (click on English subtitles):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wEiXUanPfg

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

In the video, Janos Lazar was talking about Favoriten (the district in Vienna with the most inhabitants).

Currently, the district has 202.000 people and it also one of the fastest growing (2.1% annually over the past decade).

41% are foreign-born (which is not the highest percentage, Rudolfsheim-Fünfhaus has 48%).

It is generally a working-class district (for Austrians and foreigners) and rents are comparably cheap there.

It is also the home of H.C. Strache, the FPÖ-leader. Therefore the FPÖ also gets pretty good election results there (~30%).

[Omega21]

BTW:

In the video, Janos Lazar was talking about Favoriten (the district in Vienna with the most inhabitants).

Currently, the district has 202.000 people and it also one of the fastest growing (2.1% annually over the past decade).

41% are foreign-born (which is not the highest percentage, Rudolfsheim-Fünfhaus has 48%).

It is generally a working-class district (for Austrians and foreigners) and rents are comparably cheap there.

It is also the home of H.C. Strache, the FPÖ-leader. Therefore the FPÖ also gets pretty good election results there (~30%).

The FPO share of votes in the 2nd Bez. could get a bit higher after today's stabbing spree there.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/Amoklauf-mit-Messer-auf-der-Praterstrasse/325051880

"Knife rampage on the Praterstraße, 3 severely injured"

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

In the video, Janos Lazar was talking about Favoriten (the district in Vienna with the most inhabitants).

Currently, the district has 202.000 people and it also one of the fastest growing (2.1% annually over the past decade).

41% are foreign-born (which is not the highest percentage, Rudolfsheim-Fünfhaus has 48%).

It is generally a working-class district (for Austrians and foreigners) and rents are comparably cheap there.

It is also the home of H.C. Strache, the FPÖ-leader. Therefore the FPÖ also gets pretty good election results there (~30%).

The FPO share of votes in the 2nd Bez. could get a bit higher after today's stabbing spree there.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/Amoklauf-mit-Messer-auf-der-Praterstrasse/325051880

"Knife rampage on the Praterstraße, 3 severely injured"

The arrested man (an Afghan asylum seeker) already confessed to the stabbings and cited his bad personal life situation and drug use.

Of the 4 people he stabbed, all 4 are seriously injured incl. a popular dentist in Vienna, his wife and 17-year old daughter. The 4th victim is also an Afghan.

Interesting: the asylum seeker was about to be deported the day after the attacks. Now that he committed 4 attempted murders, he'll serve 20 years in a cozy Austrian prison cell instead before being deported.

[Tender Branson]

There's a new IMAS/Krone poll for the Salzburg state election on April 22:



Because this is my state, you will hear a lot more about this important state election over the next weeks.

This poll is fairly interesting, because it has the ÖVP way down from their previous polling numbers (35-40%) and the Greens at a very high level. I seriously do not believe that the Greens will get anywhere near 15%. In fact the Green support in recent polls is ranging from 7% to 16% (!).

I think that in the end, many former Green voters from 2013 (when they got an unusually high 20% due to the state finances/investment scandal) will vote for the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS this time. I think their maximum this time is 10-11%, like the Tyrolian Greens.

Incumbent Governor Wilfried Haslauer is extremely popular, receiving some 60-80% favorable and approval ratings and I think the party will use him on poster campaigns sooner or later - pushing up the ÖVP share.

The SPÖ should recover a bit from their low point back in 2013, but will come nowhere near the 45% they got in 2004. The FPÖ and NEOS are simply too strong this time.

Parties have until March 14 (= next Wednesday) to collect 6x100 signatures in each district to be on the ballot.

ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens, FPÖ, NEOS are on the ballot statewide.

SBG (= ex-Team Stronach), FPS (= an FPÖ splinter party) might as well, while the KPÖ will only be on the ballot in the capital Salzburg City (and maybe the suburb district).

The state of Salzburg is the state with the highest productivity in Austria and has the highest GDP per capita at around 50.000€ per person, the lowest unemployment rate and the highest GDP growth rate.

According to the poll above, 83% (!) of voters are now happy with the state of politics in Salzburg.

The current ÖVP-Green government has managed to restore order in the state's finances after the 2012-13 investment scandal and introduced a new stricter budgeting system.

In fact, the state's debt decreased from about 2.3 Bio. € to about 1.7 Bio. € now - a reduction of 600 Mio. € in just 5 years. Plus, the state is also running budget surpluses now.

[Tender Branson]

After the Tyrol state election, the ÖVP and the Greens have officially started coalition talks to renew their government:

Link

Not a surprise, because they already worked together well in the past 5 years.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP/FPÖ now have their first scandal (but I'm not sure if the public really cares about it):

Austrian president fumes as police raids set off political storm

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics/austrian-president-fumes-as-police-raids-set-off-political-storm-idUSKCN1GL2H3

Legal complaint filed over raid on Austria’s domestic spy HQ

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/legal-complaint-filed-over-raid-on-austrias-domestic-spy-hq/2018/03/10/9700029c-244d-11e8-946c-9420060cb7bd_story.html

[Tender Branson]

The new cover of the political "Profil" magazine:

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IMO, some of the recent developments in this scandal are really shady and disturbing, as the opposition (SPÖ, NEOS, Pilz) claims. It really seems possible that the FPÖ wants to reshape the Intelligence Services by overhauling the whole staff of these agencies (some of which are still SPÖ-employees or party members). Which would be a big power grab and would threaten national security, if many long-time employees would be replaced. The opposition has already called for a special parliamentary session incl. many questions to the Interior and Justice Ministers, a meeting of the National Security Council or even a possible investigation committee about the raids.

[Tender Branson]

There are actually 2 main scandals right now:

* the one I posted above about the surveillance agencies and the FPÖ's potential power grab there and the removal of the SPÖ-leaning head of this BVT intelligence agency, intrigues between FPÖ and SPÖ employees and general mismanagement, as well as the FPÖ trying to get more insider info about far-right fraternities and neo-nazis and where they can be found. Plus, foreign intelligence services will think twice now about sharing information with this mess of a service now, putting our security at risk. This is an ÖVP-FPÖ scandal.

* the one involving the crime that Omega21 posted above. The rejected asylum seeker who stabbed 4 people in Vienna and injured them heavily already had a history of crimes and spent time in prison. He came as a so-called "refugee" in the migrant invasion of 2015, but his asylum status was soon rejected and he became a "submerged" migrant, avoiding any contact with authorities. At some point there were chances to deport him, but because of systemic errors and mismanagement, he escaped deportation or was "tolerated". This scandal involves the old SPÖ-ÖVP government + the Greens who acted as "welcome applauders" during the migrant invasion of 2015-16 and let all these criminal elements into the country without asking a whole lot of questions.

[Tender Branson]

They're on a roll! So inspiring, love it!

Not really.

After a few months, ÖVP-FPÖ have arrived in the hard world of political reality.

While the ÖVP are the grown-ups of this coalition, the FPÖ is the big instability factor: they are like children who get told not to touch the hot plate of the kitchen stove, but still constantly touch it for some reason. Probably out of stupidity, or because they like it to get burned ...

[Tender Branson]

A new Market poll for the "Standard":

33% ÖVP (+1.5%)
29% SPÖ (+2.1%)
24% FPÖ (-2.0%)
  8% NEOS (+2.7%)
  3% Greens (-0.8%)
  2% LiPi (-2.4%)
  1% Others (-1.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

37% Kurz (ÖVP)
30% Kern (SPÖ)
11% Strache (FPÖ)
  6% Strolz (NEOS)
  1% Kolba (LiPi)

Voters also give the thumbs down to former Green Party leader Eva Glawischnig, who recently decided to take a management job at a major gambling company (something the party and she herself always opposed). By a 67-20 margin, voters say she has hurt her party with her new job and by a 62-25 margin, that she betrayed her former voters. Might explain why the Greens are dropping back to 3% again after it seems they have recovered a bit over the past few months.

https://derstandard.at/2000075868862/OeVP-legt-laut-Umfragenach-Landtagswahlen-weiter-zu

[Tender Branson]

With 5 weeks until the Salzburg state election here, parties are slowly starting their election campaigns.

Over the weekend, I've seen some first posters/billboards popping up in the city here by the SPÖ and FPÖ.

Today, NEOS and Greens also presented first posters.

While the ones by the SPÖ and NEOS are pretty good IMO (they have a real message and policy proposals), the ones by the Greens and FPÖ are pretty bad for a start:

SPÖ

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(Other SPÖ-posters mention clear policy proposals such as more police officers despite future retirements in the force + securing medical infrastructure.)

NEOS:

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Greens:

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FPÖ

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[Tender Branson]

Thousands of hardcore FPÖ supporters attacked FPÖ-leader Strache yesterday on Facebook because he condemned the Austrian Anschluss to Germany 80 years ago and the crimes committed by Nazis:

Link

Comments ranged from "these things never happened" to "come on Strache, the fake news media is making these things up" and so on ...

[Omega21]

Thousands of hardcore FPÖ supporters attacked FPÖ-leader Strache yesterday on Facebook because he condemned the Austrian Anschluss to Germany 80 years ago and the crimes committed by Nazis:

Link

Comments ranged from "these things never happened" to "come on Strache, the fake news media is making these things up" and so on ...

It is really sad to think that these kinds of people still exist in Western Europe...

Are there any estimates or "educated" guesses on how many of these neo-Nazis still exist in Austria?

[Tender Branson]

Thousands of hardcore FPÖ supporters attacked FPÖ-leader Strache yesterday on Facebook because he condemned the Austrian Anschluss to Germany 80 years ago and the crimes committed by Nazis:

Link

Comments ranged from "these things never happened" to "come on Strache, the fake news media is making these things up" and so on ...

It is really sad to think that these kinds of people still exist in Western Europe...

Are there any estimates or "educated" guesses on how many of these neo-Nazis still exist in Austria?

There's a hard core of about 5% Holocaust deniers here, according to a GfK poll.

Plus, today actually, the Volkshilfe Barometer shows that 26% of Austrians want a "strong leader at the top the state, who does not need to deal with parliament."

https://www.volkshilfe.at/fileadmin/user_upload/Media_Library/PDFs/Sonstiges/3_Ergebnisse_Soba.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Today was the last possible day to submit enough signatures to be on the ballot for the April 22 Salzburg state election here.

Qualified parties + ballot access:

ÖVP (statewide)
SPÖ (statewide)
Greens (statewide)
FPÖ (statewide)
NEOS (statewide)
FPS (statewide)
SBG  (statewide)
KPÖ+ (only in Salzburg-City and the suburbs district)
CPÖ (only in the suburbs district of Salzburg-City)

http://www.salzburg24.at/landtagswahl-voraussichtlich-neun-listen-auf-stimmzetteln-in-salzburg/5221341

Signatures will be checked if valid until March 26 now, then the ballots will be printed and sent out to postal voters (including myself).