Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Next week, some changes in the Nationalrat and Bundesrat will take place:

After Peter Kolba stepped down as MP for the "List Pilz" recently, party founder Peter Pilz will return to the Nationalrat and be sworn in as an MP on Monday.

The "List Pilz" will then decide whether to kick out Martha Bissmann from their parliamentary group. Bissmann has refused to vacate her seat for the party founder, after he was cleared by the state prosecution from his sexual misconduct allegations.

On Wednesday, the new Salzburg State government (ÖVP-Greens-NEOS) will be sworn in. There will be hearings on Monday for the new government members, but this is only a formality.

Once the new Salzburg government is sworn in, this will also change the composition of the Bundesrat - the parliamentary chamber that represents the states, according to recent state election results.

The new (and final) composition in the Bundesrat after all state elections this year: 22 ÖVP, 21 SPÖ, 16 FPÖ (+4), 2 Greens (-2). "Others" also lost 2 seats.

Martha Bissmann won't be kicked out of the LiPi after all. Her group granted her "a last chance" and she agreed to the terms.

https://derstandard.at/2000081463945/Liste-Pilz-gibt-Martha-Bissmann-eine-letzte-Chance

In other news, Chancellor Kurz (who is in Israel right now to meet his buddy Netanyahu) has received numerous death threats from extremist Turkish Erdogan-backers recently after the mosque closings, deportations of imams and the stop to outside financing (mostly from Turkey and Saudi-Arabia).

https://stockholmcf.org/austrian-chancellor-kurz-receives-death-threats-after-targeted-by-turkeys-erdogan

And it also turns out that Erdogan's AKP is sending campaign letters to Austrian students, aged 11-14 (!) years, urging them to support him and tell their parents to vote for him. They have been directly sent from Turkey to Austrian schools, where they were intercepted. Wow, the guy must be desperate this time ...

https://derstandard.at/2000081454273/Aufregung-um-Erdogan-Wahlbriefe-an-Wiener-Schulen

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg state's new government (ÖVP+Greens+NEOS) and state parliament was sworn in today.

21 of the 36 state parliamentarians are new, incl. all from the FPÖ (and from NEOS of course).

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/politik/neue-salzburger-landesregierung-und-neuer-landtag-sind-angelobt-29113522

And in the Austrian parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ ratified the CETA free trade treaty today (despite the FPÖ campaigning against it before the election).

http://orf.at/stories/2442656/2442658

ÖVP+FPÖ also have no intention to legalize gay marriage on their own earlier than Jan. 1, 2019 - which is when it will become legal by Constitutional Court order (hetero couples can also enter the more modern civil partnership union then).

https://derstandard.at/2000081475211/Regierung-will-Frist-fuer-Ehe-fuer-alle-verstreichen-lassen

[Tender Branson]

A few positive developments in the first months of the ÖVP/FPÖ-government:

* Deportations between Jan-May are up by 36% compared with the same time last year. Last year, 12.000 people were deported (or left voluntarily), so for the year it would mean some 16.000-17.000 deportations.

* On the other hand, new asylum requests are down by 40% between Jan-May. Still, some 24.000 requests are projected for the year, which would still be more than the number of deportations.

I think it would be better in the long run if there are more deportations than new requests. Maybe the government can get this done in the next years. Would be a plus in my book.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, I think the deportation numbers are a key measurement for the FPO.  If they can deliver on this, plus a big reduction on new asylum cases, , they will have actually given their electorate much of what that electorate wanted by voting FPO.  Keep up the work on this, stay out of stupid neo-Nazi type scandals, and the FPO is probably in good shape for the next election.

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, I think the deportation numbers are a key measurement for the FPO.  If they can deliver on this, plus a big reduction on new asylum cases, , they will have actually given their electorate much of what that electorate wanted by voting FPO.  Keep up the work on this, stay out of stupid neo-Nazi type scandals, and the FPO is probably in good shape for the next election.

Yeah, I agree.

If ÖVP+FPÖ are not making any big mistakes, it's likely they will be re-elected for another term.

But there's still a long way to go until the next election.

[Tender Branson]

A new Ö24 poll by Research Affairs (n=1.004, June 7-13, online) has the government gaining again:



In their March polls, the ÖVP was as low as 31% and the FPÖ as low as 22% - during their smoking ban controversy. They have since recovered to their 2017 election results levels.

Also:

88% of Austrian voters support ÖVP-FPÖ's recent announcement to close several mosques, deport up to 60 extremist, non-integrating imams and stop outside financing in a major effort to combat political Islam.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Aktuelle-Umfrage-Plus-fuer-die-Regierung/337337093

[Tender Branson]

Another new poll today (ATV Austria Trend), conducted June 4-11:

34% ÖVP (+2.5)
26% SPÖ (-0.9)
25% FPÖ (-1.0)
  8% NEOS (+2.7)
  4% Greens (+0.2)
  1% LiPi (-3.4)
  2% Others (-0.1)

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20180615_OTS0170/atv-oesterreich-trend-59-gegen-12-stunden-maximalarbeitszeit-alle-ergebnisse-heute-um-1920-uhr-in-atv-aktuell

59% of Austrians oppose the work-day-flexibility plan that ÖVP-FPÖ unveiled yesterday, which will expand max. working hours ordered by business owners to 12 per day and 60 per week.

[Tender Branson]

An excellent economic forecast by the Central Bank:

Austrian growth to stay above 3 pct this year, central bank says

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https://www.reuters.com/article/austria-economy-forecast/austrian-growth-to-stay-above-3-pct-this-year-central-bank-says-idUSV9N1JQ02L

The forecast already speculates with a balanced budget this year, thanks to the good economy (there will also be a big HETA bad bank re-payment in August, which will spill additional money into the budget because of the assets that are being sold from the former bad bank).

The government actually plans a small deficit this year and only a balanced budget next year, so reaching their goal one year earlier would be a big thing.

The forecast then estimates small budget surpluses for 2019 (+0.2% of GDP) and 2020 (+0.4% of GDP).

Job growth will be +2.2% this year, which means more than 100.000 new jobs created - while unemployment will fall below 5%.

Debt as a percentage of GDP will decline from 74% this year to 67.5% in 2020.

https://www.oenb.at/Presse/201806015.html

[Tender Branson]

59% of Austrians oppose the work-day-flexibility plan that ÖVP-FPÖ unveiled yesterday, which will expand max. working hours ordered by business owners to 12 per day and 60 per week.

The full poll results have been released and while 59% oppose the plans, just 35% support it.

And there's another problem: The poll asked if voters support/oppose the plans if people are working longer voluntarily, with an opt-out choice ...

The government's plans are much tougher though: The 9th and 10th hour a day have to be worked if the boss orders it, with no possibility to complain. Only the 11th and 12th hours have an opt-out, but only if the employees "present credible personal reasons", such as childcare etc.

The SPÖ, Greens, LiPi and the unions are already firing heavily against the government plans to widen the current 8-hour work days. Even NEOS (which are generally favourable to these things) called for a proper debate in parliament. ÖVP/FPÖ simply want to rush it through, as a present for companies.

This could become an issue over the next weeks where ÖVP/FPÖ will meet heavy resistance and could even lead to significant changes before it is being passed in parliament. Even many voters from the ÖVP and FPÖ are opposed to these plans, ÖVP-voters because they see them as anti-social and FPÖ-voters because they are the most affected.

When asked if voters support or oppose strike measures by the unions if the government passes it, they support strike by 45-43. Those in prime working age by a 50-35 margin.

Voters also agree with the following poll statements:

"The government policies primarily target and hurt socially weak segments of the population in favour of other groups."

53-37 agree

"The government primarily works in favour of company owners, civil servants and farmers - to the disadvantage of other groups."

54-33 agree

https://atv.at/oesterreichtrend

So, maybe the SPÖ should jump back on the class-warfare train in the next month like UK-Labour to attack the government and sharpen their profile ?

[Tender Branson]

For those who are interested:

The London School of Economics (LSE) has an overview of the ÖVP-FPÖ's performance in their first 6 months.

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http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/06/18/austrias-right-wing-government-at-six-months-whats-the-record-so-far

[Tender Branson]

A new poll (Market for the "Standard", June 12-15, n=800):

34% ÖVP (+2.5)
26% SPÖ (-0.9)
25% FPÖ (-1.0)
  7% NEOS (+1.7)
  5% Greens (+1.2)
  2% LiPi (-2.4)
  1% Others

ÖVP-FPÖ government approval rating:

53% approve
31% disapprove

Major party leader grades:

Kurz: 56% A+B, 16% C, 23% D+F
Kern: 18% A+B, 26% C, 47% D+F
Strache: 34% A+B, 21% C, 39% D+F

By a 53-27 margin, voters oppose Peter Pilz's return to parliament.

https://derstandard.at/2000081937704/Hohe-Zustimmung-zu-Sebastian-Kurz-maessige-zu-Heinz-Christian-Strache

Also:

ÖVP-FPÖ is watering down their controversial work-day flexibility law, which expands max. working hours to 12 per day and 60 per week and will introduce a "voluntary" clause into the law now. Unions suggested massive strikes otherwise.

https://derstandard.at/2000081964819/Arbeitszeit-Strache-will-Freiwilligkeit-ins-Gesetz-schreiben

[Tender Branson]

At the recent Visegrad V4 + Austria summit, the leaders of the 5 countries co-ordinated their efforts to be a thorn in the flesh of Angela Merkel:

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https://hungarytoday.hu/orban-highlights-eu-border-protection-in-v4-plus-austria-summit

[Tender Branson]

Party delegates will elect Beate Meinl-Reisinger as the new leader of the liberal NEOS today.

She's the leader of the Vienna-group of the party and a close associate of party founder Matthias Strolz, who decided last month to retire after 6 years as party leader. New party deputies will also be elected today.



This means Austria will get a female party leader again (in September/October, there will actually be another new female party leader with Maria Stern - who will take over the "List Pilz", which will then have a different name as well).

http://orf.at/stories/2444158

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-Interior Minister Herbert Kickl has created a new 1.000 (wo)men rapid-response border-protection unit in the last months, called PUMA.



Their first joint exercise with the army and police called "ProBorders" will take place on Tuesday on the border to Slovenia, to counter any incoming large migrant flow (migrant numbers on the Balkans are rising again).

PUMA is a similar rapid-reponse unit as COBRA, Austria's SWAT-unit. The new border unit can be deployed in big numbers at any border crossing within hours.

The border protection exercise has been postponed by 1 day, because Monday will be a public holiday in Slovenia.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20180622_OTS0015/einladung-zum-medientermin-im-rahmen-der-grenzschutz-uebung-proborders

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll:

33% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
25% FPÖ
  7% NEOS
  4% Greens
  3% LiPi
  1% Others

On Austria's EU-presidency, which starts on July 1:

36% think it's a positive opportunity for Austria to re-shape EU politics
31% think it's only a duty, which won't change anything in either direction
21% think the rotating EU-presidency should be abolished because it's useless and costly

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20180623_OTS0006/profil-umfrage-oevp-und-spoe-legen-in-sonntagsfrage-zu

[Tender Branson]

Voters strongly oppose the new mounted police force that FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl is currently establishing in Vienna:



27% Support
68% Oppose

Roughly 50 horses will be deployed in Vienna soon.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-Interior Minister Herbert Kickl has created a new 1.000 (wo)men rapid-response border-protection unit in the last months, called PUMA.



Their first joint exercise with the army and police called "ProBorders" will take place on Tuesday on the border to Slovenia, to counter any incoming large migrant flow (migrant numbers on the Balkans are rising again).

PUMA is a similar rapid-reponse unit as COBRA, Austria's SWAT-unit. The new border unit can be deployed in big numbers at any border crossing within hours.

The border protection exercise has been postponed by 1 day, because Monday will be a public holiday in Slovenia.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20180622_OTS0015/einladung-zum-medientermin-im-rahmen-der-grenzschutz-uebung-proborders

This was held today:



Police students played the part of the refugees/migrants, coming into the country in large numbers.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5886507/Austria-stages-dramatic-anti-migrant-exercise.html

http://www.euronews.com/2018/06/26/austria-deploys-police-and-troops-for-immigration-exercise-on-border

[Tender Branson]

Not a lot happening here right now, except for Austria taking over the EU presidency tomorrow for the next 6 months.

In other news, there's still big controversy about ÖVP-FPÖ's flexiwork law, which would expand maximum daily working hours to 12 per day and 60 per week. The unions and opposition will stage a mass protest in Vienna today, with probably 10.000s of people attending. A new Ö24 poll out yesterday showed that more than 60% of Austrians are opposed to extending working hours to 12 per day, even big chunks of ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters. Opposition is strongest among younger voters, while older workers slightly before retirement don't care as much.

Also, unemployment has dropped to 4.6% in May (seasonally-adjusted) and to 4.3% (unadjusted). These are the lowest rates in 5 years, but still a long way to go to reach the 3.8% before the 2008/09 financial crisis.

The OeNB (National Bank), the WIFO and the IHS have all released new economic forecasts yesterday and the outlook remains great: The OenB predicts 3.1% growth this year, WIFO 3.2% and the IHS 2.9%.

Budget: OeNB says balanced budget already this year, WIFO and IHS deficits of just 0.1-0.2%

Debt: Should drop from 78% of GDP last year to 73% this year.

For Formula 1 fans, there's the GP in Spielberg at the Red Bull Ring tomorrow.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ugh, Austrian presidency is a little bit nightmarish. Did they already said what are their plans for next half year? Can we expect anti-nuclear agenda? Germany is already bullying Czech Republic about their plans on building nuclear power plant. Germany, Austria, Luxembourg are anti-nuclear countries so I guess we can expect similar approach from Austria?

[Tender Branson]

Ugh, Austrian presidency is a little bit nightmarish. Did they already said what are their plans for next half year? Can we expect anti-nuclear agenda? Germany is already bullying Czech Republic about their plans on building nuclear power plant. Germany, Austria, Luxembourg are anti-nuclear countries so I guess we can expect similar approach from Austria?

I guess nuclear energy is the least of our problems in the next 6 months ... (even though Austria is of course opposed to it).

The Austrian presidency will have to deal with immigration/asylum, final BREXIT talks and the next EU-budget etc. etc.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Well, Bulgarian presidency also had all those issues like immigration and Brexit talks but they were also trying to force their own agenda, especially about talks with Balkan states on future enlargement of the EU (Serbia-Kosovo talks, Greece-Macedonia deals).

[Tender Branson]

Well, Bulgarian presidency also had all those issues like immigration and Brexit talks but they were also trying to force their own agenda, especially about talks with Balkan states on future enlargement of the EU (Serbia-Kosovo talks, Greece-Macedonia deals).

Yes, that's true (and hyperactive Chancellor Kurz will of course push a lot of it).

On the other hand, I think the EU presidency is mostly overrated.

Still, here's the programme for Austria's presidency over the next 6 months, called "For a stronger and more secure Europe":

It will consist of security (the fight against illegal immigration by securing external borders), maintaining Europe’s competitiveness through digitization, and stability in Austria’s neighboring countries (working towards EU accession for Western Balkan countries).

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https://era.gv.at/object/document/4149/attach/0_Programme_of_the_Austrian_Presidency.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Today, between 80.000 (police estimate) and 120.000 (organizers) demonstrated against the ÖVP-FPÖ's "flexiwork" plans (max. daily work time of 12 hours, 60 per week) in Vienna.

The protest was organized by the labour unions, the SPÖ, List Pilz, the Greens and smaller parties from the Left (KPÖ).











Meanwhile, Chancellor Kurz was on a mountain in Styria today where he took over the EU-presidency from Bulgaria:

[Tender Branson]

Here is an English summary what the controversial ÖVP-FPÖ flexiwork law is all about:

Flexibilisation of Working Time: Biggest Attack on Workers in Austria for Decades

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https://news.industriall-europe.eu/Article/232

I oppose this law, which is going to be passed in parliament on Wednesday, and I support the opposition and unions. 8 hours of work a day is long enough. Workers fought very hard for over a century to achieve regulated 8-hour work times.

[Tender Branson]

New "OGM" poll for the "Kurier":



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurz-und-strache-im-stabilen-hoch/400059485