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DavidB.
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« Reply #125 on: January 10, 2018, 01:29:02 pm »

Peil.nl poll for the upcoming local election in Amsterdam:

D66 9 (-5)
GL 9 (+3)
VVD 6 (-)
PvdA 5 (-5)
SP 4 (-2)
DENK 3 (new, +3)
FvD 3 (new, +3)
PvdD 2 (+1)
BIJ1 2 (new, +2)
CDA 1 (-)
50Plus 1 (new, +1)
Elderly Party 0 (-1)

The current D66-VVD-SP coalition would lose its majority. Painful numbers for D66, suggesting that either their achievements as part of the local government or (more likely) their participation in the national government is not valued too highly by many of their 2014 voters in Amsterdam. Another cold shower for the PvdA as well.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 07:03:31 am by DavidB. »Logged

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« Reply #126 on: January 10, 2018, 01:35:34 pm »

A SP+VVD coalition, dear god this is si trash
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Kamala
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« Reply #127 on: January 10, 2018, 01:54:14 pm »

PvdD surging!
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« Reply #128 on: January 12, 2018, 11:48:57 am »

The poll seems to be in line with the general election result of 2017. D66 had 18% in Amsterdam (GL was larger), which is about 9 local seats. People forget that 2014 was the highpoint of D66 where it frequently polled first. To me this poll suggests that D66 is not really punished so far since they enter the national government
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DavidB.
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« Reply #129 on: January 14, 2018, 10:43:21 am »

The poll seems to be in line with the general election result of 2017. D66 had 18% in Amsterdam (GL was larger), which is about 9 local seats. People forget that 2014 was the highpoint of D66 where it frequently polled first. To me this poll suggests that D66 is not really punished so far since they enter the national government
You're absolutely right, my suggestions were probably overly influenced by wishful thinking. I also think that part of the reason why D66 had an unusually good election in 2014 in Amsterdam was that there was an "anyone but the PvdA" vote (related to the party's style of governing in the capital, not to the party's national lack of popularity) and D66 were regarded as the only other party that could top the poll.

Meanwhile, the SP is receiving quite some criticism from the left after allegedly pulling a 180 on the subject of EU agreements on migration with third countries. Roemer had opposed the deal with Turkey, calling it "dirty" and criticizing it for not meeting human rights standards. However, Lilian Marijnissen, the new party leader, now stated in De Volkskrant does not oppose migration agreements with third countries in principle, but that it depends on the context. Technically Marijnissen does not necessarily contradict Roemer and his position on the agreement with Turkey, but to me it appears that something has changed: Marijnissen confirms that she would not necessarily oppose a migration agreement with Morocco, while she had to agree with the reporter that there are not many African countries with a better human rights situation than Turkey. She also says that "it would be moronic" to oppose migrants applying for asylum in third countries and that "in principle, it is desirable that migrants are taken in by neighboring countries." Roemer, on the other hand, appeared to reject the underlying idea of such migration deals, namely that migrants do not have a right to apply for asylum in Europe. It is hard not to see this change as the fulfillment of Jan Marijnissen and Ron Meyer's wish to ditch the Roemer/Gesthuizen policy and tone on migration, which they regarded as too refugee-friendly and out of sync with the views of the Dutch working class.
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mvd10
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« Reply #130 on: January 14, 2018, 02:16:50 pm »

A SP+VVD coalition, dear god this is si trash

Local politics are much less partisan. Keeping the whole thing running is the most important thing. That could change in 2018 though, Amsterdam's seriously overheated housing market is becoming a huge issue and SP and VVD/D66 have big differences on that issue. There also are some VVD/SP coalitions in provincial governments. Literally nobody knows what provincial governments do (something with the roads I believe).
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« Reply #131 on: January 16, 2018, 03:33:03 am »

Speaking of D66 it looks like they are going to put elected mayors to the parliament but could potentially get shafted by the CDA in the First Chamber (Senate). Potential Thom de Graaf 2.0.
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mvd10
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« Reply #132 on: January 16, 2018, 01:58:42 pm »

I don't think Ollongren will resign if this fails, but it might be nasty for them. Then again, do D66 voters really care about their so-called "crown jewels" anymore (basically more democratization)? Basically ditching the crown jewels and becoming a generic centrist progressive anti-PVV party probably was a great move by Pechtold, the "crown jewels" were never going to pass parliament twice with a 2/3 majority (which is necessary for constitutional changes)

I wonder which former CDA/VVD bigwig who was last relevant back in the 80s/90s will block one of D66's crown jewels this time. In 1998 Hans Wiegel (charismatic former VVD leader who was last relevant during van Agt I in the late 70s but still continues to appear on television) blocked the referendum and in 2005 Ed van Thijn (Amsterdam mayor in the 80s) blocked the elected mayor. May 18 1998 became the "night of Wiegel" and March 22 2005 became known as the "night of van Thijn". I bet Eelco Brinkman (CDA) desperately wants to have something named after him, otherwise he'll be known as the 1994 CDA candidate who got savagely and spectacularly sabotaged by the incumbent CDA (!) PM during his campaign. He fits the bill perfectly.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #133 on: January 21, 2018, 01:41:48 pm »

Peil.nl today:
VVD 27
D66 16 (+1)
FvD 15
PVV 15 (+1)
PvdA 13 (-1)
CDA 14
SP 14
GroenLinks 13 (-1)
PvdD 7
ChristenUnie 5
50Plus 5
SGP 3
DENK 3

In Groningen another severe earthquake took place. In this light, the government's gas drilling plans have become controversial again: according to critics, the amount of gas extracted is not decreasing quickly enough. In addition, claims for reparations have not been dealt with during the very long formation process, which understandably has pissed people off.

"What should happen with gas extraction in Groningen?"
Immediately end it - 19%
End it in the coming few years - 23%
End it gradually - 45%
Continue extraction as is now the case - 8%

Those who want to end it now or in the coming few years were asked whether they would find it to be acceptable to pay 150 euros more in taxes on a yearly basis if gas extraction were to be terminated. 48% said this would be acceptable to them, 44% said it would not.

52% view PM Rutte's role in the gas extraction issue as negative, 28% are neutral and only 11% regard his handling of the issue as positive.

Following America's most recent SJW fad, statues, roads and schools named after historical figures from the Golden Age have now become controversial in the inner city of Amsterdam, and the whole country has to know about it. A school in bobo Amsterdam East named after Jan Pieterszoon Coen will change its name. 65% oppose this (including pluralities of the D66, PvdA, SP and PvdD electorates), only 23% support it.

As a gotcha, pollster De Hond included a question on approval of the name change of Amsterdam's Stalin Avenue to Freedom Avenue in the 1950s, as if Stalin has been an important figure in our national history. 49% support the name change that took place at the time, a whopping 37% oppose it, including a plurality of VVD voters (lol).
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« Reply #134 on: January 22, 2018, 02:54:58 pm »

D66 16 (+1)
GroenLinks 13 (-1)
lol
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« Reply #135 on: January 25, 2018, 05:55:45 am »



Poll local election Rotterdam. Big loss for Leefbaar Rotterdam who are allied with FvD. Suprised to see that Leefbaar Rotterdam and PVV are smaller together than Leefbaar Rotterdam in 2014. Surprisingly the VVD will double the number of it seats according to this poll
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« Reply #136 on: January 25, 2018, 08:34:20 am »



Utrecht poll
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DavidB.
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« Reply #137 on: January 25, 2018, 01:38:26 pm »

That Rotterdam poll is terrible. F**k the PVV for screwing over Leefbaar, a highly effective and successful party.

In The Hague, the braindead part of the local PVV (consisting of former MPs Karen Gerbrands and Willie Dille) has successfully managed to chase away the (more or less) normal part, consisting of Elias van Hees (who already left last year), Danielle de Winter and Tim Vermeer. Hope they will get a nice seat loss. This is likely to happen and will probably mainly benefit local party Groep De Mos, led by former PVV MP Richard de Mos. Will be voting VVD myself.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 01:51:23 pm by DavidB. »Logged

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« Reply #138 on: January 25, 2018, 04:55:25 pm »

That Rotterdam poll is terrible. F**k the PVV for screwing over Leefbaar, a highly effective and successful party.

In The Hague, the braindead part of the local PVV (consisting of former MPs Karen Gerbrands and Willie Dille) has successfully managed to chase away the (more or less) normal part, consisting of Elias van Hees (who already left last year), Danielle de Winter and Tim Vermeer. Hope they will get a nice seat loss. This is likely to happen and will probably mainly benefit local party Groep De Mos, led by former PVV MP Richard de Mos. Will be voting VVD myself.

Why not Groep De Mos?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #139 on: January 26, 2018, 08:38:24 am »

That Rotterdam poll is terrible. F**k the PVV for screwing over Leefbaar, a highly effective and successful party.

In The Hague, the braindead part of the local PVV (consisting of former MPs Karen Gerbrands and Willie Dille) has successfully managed to chase away the (more or less) normal part, consisting of Elias van Hees (who already left last year), Danielle de Winter and Tim Vermeer. Hope they will get a nice seat loss. This is likely to happen and will probably mainly benefit local party Groep De Mos, led by former PVV MP Richard de Mos. Will be voting VVD myself.

Why not Groep De Mos?
I am sympathetic to them and I actually just read their manifesto, which is quite impressive. I might give them a chance. At the same time, I very much feel that they are not there for voters like me.  They are there for working-class people who have been living in The Hague for generations: for "Hagenezen" (which they use in their manifesto all the time as well), not for "Hagenaars". This is a good thing, as these people are usually ignored by most other parties and deserve to be represented well, which De Mos does absolutely does (while the PVV does not). But these voters' needs and desires are not necessarily always my needs and desires. For instance, Groep De Mos seems even more car-oriented than the (greenish) VVD, whereas I would like upgrading the bikelane and public transit system to be prioritized. In addition, Groep De Mos is also explicitly a party for the elderly and therefore comes up with proposals such as free public transit for pensioners. This sort of ideas seem unnecessary and needlessly expensive to me: just like all poor people, poor elderly people already get a lot of freebies, including access to public transit at a reduced price, and the very many elderly who have more money to spend clearly don't need it. Still, as I said, I am quite impressed by their manifesto and will consider them more seriously than I previously did.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 11:18:35 am by DavidB. »Logged

DavidB.
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« Reply #140 on: January 28, 2018, 05:59:09 am »

Some controversy over the decision by Minister Kaag (Development Cooperation, D66) to pay 13 million euros to UNRWA immediately. The Dutch government was already going to contribute this amount of money, but following Donald Trump and Nikki Haley's decision to slash U.S. funding to UNRWA, Kaag decided to have the payment take place immediately.

MP Danai van Weerdenburg (PVV) referred to Kaag's personal commitment to the UNRWA (she worked there in the past), to which Minister Zijlstra (Foreign Affairs, VVD; Kaag was in Davos) rather angrily responded that he was fed up with the right-wing opposition's tendency to point at Kaag's spouse, a Palestinian former PLO official, to discredit her -- which Van Weerdenburg had not done here. She thanked Zijlstra for his addition.

But opposition to Kaag's decision did not only come from the PVV. SGP leader Kees van der Staaij noted that it has become a habit of Development Cooperation ministers to try and "act brave" by making payments to organizations hit by Trump's budget cuts: Kaag's predecessor Lilianne Ploumen (PvdA) became well-known for her initiative SheDecides, defying Trump's reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy. Van der Staaij was dissatisfied with Kaag's decision, and the government, with a majority of one in both houses of parliament, might need the SGP in the future.

It also turned out that coalition parties VVD, CDA and CU were not amused with Kaag's decision. Not without reason, as state broadcaster NOS found out that Kaag had not discussed her actions with the coalition and bluntly announced her decision 30 minutes after intra-coalition talks had finished. As a response, MPs Bente Becker (VVD), Anne Kuik (CDA) and Joel Voordewind (CU) put forward ten critical parliamentary questions to Minister Kaag. CU, CDA and VVD also decided to show their dissatisfaction with regard to the course of affairs by putting the issue on the agenda in three upcoming debates. This shows how limited Kaag's manoeuvring space on this highly explosive theme is: VVD, CDA and CU clearly seek to show Kaag that she will not get away with similar decisions in the future.

Meanwhile, trust in most ministers has gone down since the government assumed office. Only minister Zijlstra of Foreign Affairs (VVD) has become more trusted.

Trust in ministers Slob (CU), Ollongren (D66) and Kaag (D66) has declined the most: -0.7. For Slob this probably has to do with teachers' wages not going up by enough according to the labor unions, for Ollongren it definitely has to do with her initiative to abolish the referendum and with her defense of the law on the Intelligence Services that will be subject of a referendum in March, and for Kaag I don't know.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 06:13:44 am by DavidB. »Logged

DavidB.
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« Reply #141 on: January 31, 2018, 07:37:51 am »

The Hague poll:

D66 8 (nc)
VVD 6 (+2)
GL 5 (+3)
De Mos 5 (+2)
PVV 4 (-3)
PvdA 4 (-2)
CU/SGP 3 (+2)
CDA 2 (-1)
PvdD 2 (+1)
The Hague City Party 2 (-3)
50Plus 2 (+1)
SP 1 (-1)
Islam Democrats 1 (-1)
PvdE 0 (-1)
NIDA 0

Conducted by junk pollster I&O, though; seems as if the Muslim parties (ID, NIDA, PvdE) are being underpolled.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 07:41:46 am by DavidB. »Logged

DavidB.
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« Reply #142 on: February 01, 2018, 09:13:48 am »

Lol66: Ilhan Tekir, former GL local council member in Gorinchem who was kicked out of the party after stating his support for Turkish president Erdogan and that he had voted for him (including whataboutery about "the long arm of Israel and America [in Dutch politics]") is now the leader of D66 Gorinchem -- and that is completely fine with the national leadership of D66, the Gorinchem branch claims. According to the current D66 leader in Gorinchem, Francis Alba Heijdenrijk, Tekir's statements need to be viewed in "the context that existed after the failed coup"; moreover, "Erdogan is an important cooperation partner for Europe" and "many other Turks vote for Erdogan too". Tekir would be a "passionate Democrat" (lol) for whom "the interest of D66 comes first."
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 09:24:33 am by DavidB. »Logged

DavidB.
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« Reply #143 on: February 08, 2018, 01:34:30 pm »

Negative press for FvD and the PvdA these days.

Baudet declined to dissociate himself from the comments that Yernaz Ramautarsing, #2 FvD candidate in Amsterdam and previous candidate for the Libertarian Party (GE 2012) and Artikel 1 (EP 2014), made about differences on average between peoples in terms of IQ. Ramautarsing, a proud libertarian and follower of Ayn Rand who is black and from Suriname (and opposed to Zwarte Piet!) and who grew up with a single mother in the most black neighborhood in the country, stated in 2016 that "I would loved for it to be different, that black people were extremely intelligent, that Surinamese had the highest average IQ in the world. But it is not true. You can take someone from Syria, where the average IQ is 84, into the Netherlands, where the average IQ is 101. This person will indeed earn less than many natives. But is that racism? No, there is a relationship between IQ and income." For some reason, these comments have now again gone viral, and Baudet's refusal to dissociate himself from them drove Deputy Prime Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66, Interior Affairs) to state that FvD have gone further than the PVV and pose a threat to the "fundamental values of our democracy." In response, Baudet filed a complaint with the police for both libel and slander. Every freshman in law school knows that this complaint will not hold up in court, but people do everything for PR nowadays. Unwisely, MP Theo Hiddema also decided to double down on Ramautarsing's comments, saying that "this has all been scientifically proven." All this, I think, is very damaging to FvD because it will increasingly be perceived as a far-right party. This will make the party less palatable as a coalition partner to VVD and CDA, which, in turn, would mean that the party would have less opportunities to exert direct influence on policy: I increasingly feel that FvD is going the PVV way.

Meanwhile, there is much media attention for the lack of internal democracy within FvD. People are not dissatisfied with Baudet himself but with Henk Otten, treasurer on the FvD board, who apparently has a rather dictatorial style and was the main actor behind the move to shut down the provincial FvD structures. Certain prominents cancelled their membership. I doubt any voter will care about this, but it's not the way any party wants to be in the media.

Fortunately, there is also the PvdA. The Moorlag scandal on sub-minimum wages for employees with special needs ended with a painful defeat for the new Corbynista chairwoman Nelleke Vedelaar and with Moorlag remaining part of the PvdA parliamentary group. However, the PvdA group leader in the Senate, Marleen Barth, resigned today. When her husband Jan Hoekema's term as mayor of Wassenaar had expired, she had sought to negotiate a reduced rental price to continue to live in the mayor's mansion, NRC Handelsblad revealed in January. This week, the important Senate debates on the initiative to change the organ donation law from an opt-in system to an opt-out system took place. These debates had been on the agenda for months and the vote was bound to be very close. Ultimately the vote was postponed, but Barth was already enjoying her holiday on the Maldives when that decision was made and didn't think participating in the debates was too important. This proved to be the straw that broke the camel's back. To many, Barth is the absolute personification of the entitlement mentality many PvdA elected officials used to have, and I think it was high time that she left.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 01:46:09 pm by DavidB. »Logged

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« Reply #144 on: February 09, 2018, 09:49:55 am »

Her husband also wasn't very popular in Wassenaar (he was mayor there). That Wassenaar didn't have a VVD mayor for literally a decade already baffled me, but you really f**ed up when people in Wassenaar mockingly call you "baroness" and "regent" (then again, there are some less wealthy parts in Wassenaar).

Yet another prominent FvD member left their party btw. Bad optics for Baudet. Ollongren seems to be the far-right's new favourite scapegoat. I expected this role to go to Kaag, but practically nobody cares about foreign policy and Kaag has made just 1 controversial decision so far.

Cooperation between FvD and mainstream parties will be practically impossible with those comments by prominent FvD politicians, but with FvD's obsession with the party cartel cooperation probably wasn't going to happen anyway. Argh, we should have gone with VNL in 2017 Tongue.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #145 on: February 09, 2018, 12:20:39 pm »

FvD are a G-dsent for D66. After 2006 they managed to climb out of the abyss by adopting an anti-PVV strategy as Wilders got more popular. But the PVV are old news now, and as D66 have entered a rather right-wing government, they have to find a way to maintain support. Becoming the "anti-FvD" allows them to do so while not endangering the stability of the government at all.

As for Ollongren, it is clear that she is supposed to succeed Pechtold as D66 leader. I think she comes across as a cold, distant regent (who has never been on any ballot) and I wonder whether she will have the connection with the base that Pechtold has, but we shall see. Ollongren's "task" to abolish the referendum would always hurt her, and the 180 on the intelligence law, unpopular with the D66 base, made things worse. I wonder whether the Ministry of the Interior was really the right place for her. Then again, if her image among D66 voters does survive this (and sniping at FvD will certainly help her), she will be in a great position to lead the party.

Then FvD: indeed, Susan Teunissen, #3 on the GE list, left the party over the lack of internal democracy (not the IQ stuff). The second FvD seat will go to her if Hiddema resigns (or dies, G-d forbid; he is 73), and nobody knows what would happen then: in the worst-case scenario for FvD, she would take the seat as an independent. This also means that Baudet will not necessarily be able to catapult Hiddema to the Senate in 2019 should he wish to do so, which is now only possible if Baudet is sure that Teunissen will not take the seat and become an independent.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 12:26:17 pm by DavidB. »Logged

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« Reply #146 on: February 11, 2018, 07:12:17 am »

My god that debate over Amsterdam was a sh**tshow. Worse thing is it was the national leaders and not the usual amateurs that lead party lists. A debate completely hijacked by the attention seekers, the non-issues and the people who indulge in their edginess, or are looking to present themselves as the ying to Baudet's yang (see the part about D66 above). When the SP is the least annoying presence on the platform its time to switch off. 

The Dutch far right seem to be entering Catch-22 levels of repeating the same mistake of entrepreneurial politics over grassroots movements. In order to get their electoral platform they need an out-there figure. Said figure is inevitably a self-obsessed maverick with a burgeoning calimero complex against "The Media/The Establishment" for the voters to identify with. The success that said figure enjoys leads him/her to move beyond the actual project of building a party and a political movement and instead enjoy the excesses and attention of the very elite they criticise. The serious members jump ship from the scam.

I was belittled on here for saying that many of these political entrepreneurs were egomaniacs to a higher degree than the rest of the political class, and that this would eventually work against them, and lo and behold Baudet has proved me right once again, as did Fortuyn, Verdonk, Wilders, Roos etc.  Given the FvD is not only such a movement, but one directly descended from a student  fraternity, you do have to be a bit thick to think internal democracy would be a pillar of their platform. "Fool me once", etc
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« Reply #147 on: February 11, 2018, 01:17:55 pm »

Didn't watch; debates on local politics with national politicians are always terrible, but yes, judging by the reviews this one was even worse.

The government is going to make it more difficult to receive social benefits for those who have occupational disabilities and can barely (or not at all) work, though this policy will only apply to new cases. Ultimately, approximately 9% fewer people will receive "Wia" social benefits, Minister Koolmees (D66, Social Affairs) stated. Another 4% will be declared partly disabled instead of fully disabled, which means that they will receive fewer benefits than now. The consequence will be that some of these people, who will inevitably be unable to find work, will only receive the most basic type of welfare.
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« Reply #148 on: February 12, 2018, 06:03:40 am »

Two embarrassing scandals for the VVD, involving Minister of Foreign Affairs Halbe Zijlstra and MP Wybren van Haga.

For years, Zijlstra had touted a story according to which he, in his capacity as a freelancer working for Shell, had been present at Vladimir Putin's dacha together with Jeroen van der Veer, who was Shell CEO at the time. The story goes that Putin had said that he wanted a "Greater Russia", involving the Baltics, Belarus and Ukraine; Kazakhstan would be "nice to have". Zijlstra has used this story to warn his audience about Russian expansion in the region. It was also used to boost Zijlstra's foreign policy credentials when he became FM. Van der Veer had already expressed doubts about the story, saying that Zijlstra had never accompanied him when he met Putin, but now De Volkskrant cornered Zijlstra and he admitted that he himself had not been present at the dacha. He said that the story remains true, but that it came from an anonymous acquaintance whose position he did not want to damage. The story is damaging because Zijlstra is set to visit Russia and meet FM Lavrov this week. It is also striking that this government (i.e. Interior Minister Ollongren) has consistently accused Russia of spreading disinformation and fake news in Europe, whereas it is now clear that one of our ministers has been parroting a story about Russia whose veracity is highly questionable and cannot be verified. D66 leader Alexander Pechtold doesn't mind so much, though: his absurd comment was that he values Zijlstra's belated honesty and that he "still has to meet the first Russian who is willing to correct his own mistakes", as if all 144 million Russians are liars.

A much more disturbing (but less publicized) story is that of VVD MP Wybren van Haga: NRC Handelsblad found out that he still rents out apartments in Amsterdam, intimidating and extorting his lessees and threatening them to kick them out of their houses with made-up legal pretexts. Absolutely disgusting behavior; it is incomprehensible how such a person could become an MP and completely understandable at the same time how such a person could become a VVD MP. Much worse than threatening to take a piss in somebody's mailbox, in my opinion, but of course it is less of a scandal if the MP is white-collar and represents an establishment party. The VVD will want to avoid expelling him from its parliamentary group, however, because the government will lose its majority of one in case Van Haga decides to keep his seat.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 07:21:35 am by DavidB. »Logged

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« Reply #149 on: February 12, 2018, 11:06:19 am »

EenVandaag will no longer use pollster GfK to produce the De Stemming poll, but publish Ipsos' polls instead. This decision was presumably based on the fact that De Stemming proved to be the single least accurate poll in the 2017 GE, whereas Ipsos was the most accurate. It does not seem as if GfK is still conducting polls, so I think we have four pollsters now: Ipsos/EenVandaag, Kantar/TNS and Peil.nl/De Hond, who are all decent, and I&O, whose polls should really not be taken seriously.
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