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| | |-+  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: 21 March local elections + referendum
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: 21 March local elections + referendum  (Read 6977 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #125 on: January 10, 2018, 01:29:02 pm »
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Peil.nl poll for the upcoming local election in Amsterdam:

D66 9 (-5)
GL 9 (+3)
VVD 6 (-)
PvdA 5 (-5)
SP 4 (-2)
DENK 3 (new, +3)
FvD 3 (new, +3)
PvdD 2 (+1)
BIJ1 2 (new, +2)
CDA 1 (-)
50Plus 1 (new, +1)
Elderly Party 0 (-1)

The current D66-VVD-SP coalition would lose its majority. Painful numbers for D66, suggesting that either their achievements as part of the local government or (more likely) their participation in the national government is not valued too highly by many of their 2014 voters in Amsterdam. Another cold shower for the PvdA as well.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 07:03:31 am by DavidB. »Logged
Vercingetorix
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« Reply #126 on: January 10, 2018, 01:35:34 pm »
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A SP+VVD coalition, dear god this is si trash
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Kamala, FM
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« Reply #127 on: January 10, 2018, 01:54:14 pm »
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PvdD surging!
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #128 on: January 12, 2018, 11:48:57 am »
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The poll seems to be in line with the general election result of 2017. D66 had 18% in Amsterdam (GL was larger), which is about 9 local seats. People forget that 2014 was the highpoint of D66 where it frequently polled first. To me this poll suggests that D66 is not really punished so far since they enter the national government
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DavidB.
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« Reply #129 on: January 14, 2018, 10:43:21 am »
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The poll seems to be in line with the general election result of 2017. D66 had 18% in Amsterdam (GL was larger), which is about 9 local seats. People forget that 2014 was the highpoint of D66 where it frequently polled first. To me this poll suggests that D66 is not really punished so far since they enter the national government
You're absolutely right, my suggestions were probably overly influenced by wishful thinking. I also think that part of the reason why D66 had an unusually good election in 2014 in Amsterdam was that there was an "anyone but the PvdA" vote (related to the party's style of governing in the capital, not to the party's national lack of popularity) and D66 were regarded as the only other party that could top the poll.

Meanwhile, the SP is receiving quite some criticism from the left after allegedly pulling a 180 on the subject of EU agreements on migration with third countries. Roemer had opposed the deal with Turkey, calling it "dirty" and criticizing it for not meeting human rights standards. However, Lilian Marijnissen, the new party leader, now stated in De Volkskrant does not oppose migration agreements with third countries in principle, but that it depends on the context. Technically Marijnissen does not necessarily contradict Roemer and his position on the agreement with Turkey, but to me it appears that something has changed: Marijnissen confirms that she would not necessarily oppose a migration agreement with Morocco, while she had to agree with the reporter that there are not many African countries with a better human rights situation than Turkey. She also says that "it would be moronic" to oppose migrants applying for asylum in third countries and that "in principle, it is desirable that migrants are taken in by neighboring countries." Roemer, on the other hand, appeared to reject the underlying idea of such migration deals, namely that migrants do not have a right to apply for asylum in Europe. It is hard not to see this change as the fulfillment of Jan Marijnissen and Ron Meyer's wish to ditch the Roemer/Gesthuizen policy and tone on migration, which they regarded as too refugee-friendly and out of sync with the views of the Dutch working class.
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mvd10
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« Reply #130 on: January 14, 2018, 02:16:50 pm »
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A SP+VVD coalition, dear god this is si trash

Local politics are much less partisan. Keeping the whole thing running is the most important thing. That could change in 2018 though, Amsterdam's seriously overheated housing market is becoming a huge issue and SP and VVD/D66 have big differences on that issue. There also are some VVD/SP coalitions in provincial governments. Literally nobody knows what provincial governments do (something with the roads I believe).
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coloniac
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« Reply #131 on: January 16, 2018, 03:33:03 am »
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Speaking of D66 it looks like they are going to put elected mayors to the parliament but could potentially get shafted by the CDA in the First Chamber (Senate). Potential Thom de Graaf 2.0.
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mvd10
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« Reply #132 on: January 16, 2018, 01:58:42 pm »
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I don't think Ollongren will resign if this fails, but it might be nasty for them. Then again, do D66 voters really care about their so-called "crown jewels" anymore (basically more democratization)? Basically ditching the crown jewels and becoming a generic centrist progressive anti-PVV party probably was a great move by Pechtold, the "crown jewels" were never going to pass parliament twice with a 2/3 majority (which is necessary for constitutional changes)

I wonder which former CDA/VVD bigwig who was last relevant back in the 80s/90s will block one of D66's crown jewels this time. In 1998 Hans Wiegel (charismatic former VVD leader who was last relevant during van Agt I in the late 70s but still continues to appear on television) blocked the referendum and in 2005 Ed van Thijn (Amsterdam mayor in the 80s) blocked the elected mayor. May 18 1998 became the "night of Wiegel" and March 22 2005 became known as the "night of van Thijn". I bet Eelco Brinkman (CDA) desperately wants to have something named after him, otherwise he'll be known as the 1994 CDA candidate who got savagely and spectacularly sabotaged by the incumbent CDA (!) PM during his campaign. He fits the bill perfectly.
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