Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 13, 2018, 10:15:21 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 22 Print
Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands  (Read 38296 times)
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,737


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #150 on: February 12, 2018, 11:29:53 am »

The 1-seat majority is a problem. Omtzigt also got away too easily, and the same might happen with van Haga if he doesn't want to give his seat up (if the reports about his behaviour are true I can't really see him giving up his seat voluntarily). There have been stories about this for weeks, but the revelations from the NRC article are much worse than what we already knew. I wouldn't be surprised if some parties decided to attack the VVD with this, the housing market is a big issue in Amsterdam, and a VVD MP being a "huisjesmelker" is bad optics. The VVD won 15% in Amsterdam during the general election, so I imagine D66 or maybe even a party to the right of the VVD can use this. Then again, I'm not sure whether VVD voters in Amsterdam(-Zuid) really care about this. The Amsterdam VVD often is perceived as being completely out of touch with (read: more left-wing than) the VVD in the rest of the Netherlands, but this mostly goes for issues like immigration and law and order.

Zijlstra's lies are terrible too. This probably will hurt Dutch foreign policy. We should have gone with Han ten Broeke anyway. Zijlstra would have been good at a law and order ministry or any economic ministry except for Finance but he doesn't have any qualifications for the Foreign Affairs job other than a random anonymous VVD MP claiming that he knew a lot about foreign policy and his travels abroad. This makes you wonder about his other stories (he once claimed to have witnessed a terrorist attack in Bogota, Colombia). Maybe he even invented the story of him being secretary of a racing pigeon club!

I guess this means that Dijkhoff definitely is the VVD heir apparent. I mean, we already knew it but after Schippers' decision to leave politicis, Hennis-Plasschaert's resignation and Zijlstra's gaffe it's pretty obvious that those three won't succeed Rutte. Dijkhoff also has been more vocal in the debate about Dutch cultural heritage. Seeing a VVD politician talking like a right-winger is quite refreshing, usually it only happens once every 4 years Tongue.
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,737


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #151 on: February 12, 2018, 03:32:09 pm »

More bad news for Zijlstra: apparently he didn't just lie about him seeing Putin speak, he also might have lied about what Putin said ("he gave his own interpretation"). Rutte has said that he supported Zijlstra, but we know that doesn't mean much (he also "supported" former Security and Justice minister van der Steur).
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
Not_A_Man
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,758
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -6.09

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #152 on: February 12, 2018, 04:17:56 pm »

I have 2 questions. (Sorry, I just haven't payed that much attention since the GE last year, though I went and read the entire thread today from the beginning.)

One, how has FvD essentially replaced PVV?
Two, when are the municipal and local elections and where can I watch them?
Logged

mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,737


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #153 on: February 12, 2018, 06:19:02 pm »

I have 2 questions. (Sorry, I just haven't payed that much attention since the GE last year, though I went and read the entire thread today from the beginning.)

One, how has FvD essentially replaced PVV?
Two, when are the municipal and local elections and where can I watch them?

1.
I wouldn't say that FvD has replaced the PVV. In most polls the PVV still is slightly ahead of FvD, and they attract quite different voters. FvD is a form of "upscale populism" and ideologically there are some small differences. But Wilders is in trouble, and the recent problems with local candidates showed the PVV's weaknesses, but Baudet also has had some scandals recently
2.
March 21. I'm not sure where you can watch, but I'm sure someone will post a link to a livestream on that date. The same day there also will be a referendum on a law that granted extra surveillance powers to the intelligence services.
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
Not_A_Man
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,758
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -6.09

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #154 on: February 12, 2018, 06:30:31 pm »

I have 2 questions. (Sorry, I just haven't payed that much attention since the GE last year, though I went and read the entire thread today from the beginning.)

One, how has FvD essentially replaced PVV?
Two, when are the municipal and local elections and where can I watch them?

-snip-
2.
March 21. I'm not sure where you can watch, but I'm sure someone will post a link to a livestream on that date. The same day there also will be a referendum on a law that granted extra surveillance powers to the intelligence services.

Is there polling for this referendum anywhere?
Logged

DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #155 on: February 13, 2018, 04:31:44 am »

Rumor has it that Ten Broeke has f**ked his assistent in parliament, in the chair of the Speaker, that there is CCTV footage as evidence for this, and that this is the reason why the VVD have viewed Ten Broeke as a liability. Retarded move if true.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 05:36:13 am by DavidB. »Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,737


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #156 on: February 13, 2018, 06:39:26 am »

Rumor has it that Ten Broeke has f**ked his assistent in parliament, in the chair of the Speaker, that there is CCTV footage as evidence for this, and that this is the reason why the VVD have viewed Ten Broeke as a liability. Retarded move if true.

why though

Where did you read this? I'm interested Tongue.

Anyway, I've heard two things about Han ten Broeke. The first story is that "something" happened and that he won't become minister after that (Berckmoes apparently also wrote that "something" happened in her book so it might be true after all, but I haven't read the book yet). I guess the "something" could very well be what you read, but lol. In that case Han ten Broeke definitely shouldn't become minister. The second explanation is that he and Zijlstra really, really hate each other and that Han ten Broeke won't become minister because of that.
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,140
Belgium


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #157 on: February 13, 2018, 06:51:29 am »

Was Berkmoes the assistant or just a source?

Reminds me of something out of House of Cards...
Logged
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,737


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #158 on: February 13, 2018, 06:57:05 am »

Was Berkmoes the assistant or just a source?

Reminds me of something out of House of Cards...

Well, she never said that. She just said that something happened, which can mean a lot of things. And Berckmoes was a MP, so she couldn't have been the assistant.

I badly want Hans van Baalen as Foreign Minister btw.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 07:00:42 am by mvd10 »Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,140
Belgium


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #159 on: February 13, 2018, 07:37:20 am »

Was Berkmoes the assistant or just a source?

Reminds me of something out of House of Cards...

Well, she never said that. She just said that something happened, which can mean a lot of things. And Berckmoes was a MP, so she couldn't have been the assistant.

I badly want Hans van Baalen as Foreign Minister btw.

Can't MPs be junior ministers in some capacity? Or do they always fill purely legislative functions?
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #160 on: February 13, 2018, 11:06:20 am »

Senate voted 38-36 for the new opt-out organ donation system; Zijlstra just resigned as FM
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,737


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #161 on: February 13, 2018, 11:48:52 am »

RIP Zijlstra. There used to be a time when I firmly was on the Zijlstra-for-PM bandwagon. How things change Sad.

My own list of potential successors:

Han ten Broeke (VVD MP, 2006-)
Extremely qualified and well liked across the political spectrum, but for some reason he already got passed over twice so I don't think he'll get it this time.

Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (VVD, former Defence Minister 2012-2017)
She was meant to become Foreign Minister but the Mali scandal (young soldier died because of mistakes made the the Defence Ministry) forced her to resign, and getting a promotion literally 3 days after being forced to resign would be terrible optics. The scandal still might be too close for her to return to frontline politics, but that she remained in politics as a MP shows that the VVD still sees a future in her as I don't think she plans to stay a backbench MP until 2021.

Hans van Baalen (VVD, MEP 2009-)
Qualified, but perhaps a bit too "neocon", he'd definitely clash with Kaag (but that didn't stop them from appointing Zijlstra though). His move to the European Parliament in 2009 also looked a bit like a kick upstairs. It was during the aftermath of the Rutte-Verdonk clash and apparently van Baalen (a clear right-winger) was rather supportive of Verdonk unlike Zijlstra who clearly supported Rutte despite being very right-wing. Meanwhile van Baalen also got passed over thrice despite being very qualified for Defence/Foreign Affars

Barbara Visser (VVD, Defence State Secretary 2017-)
Too inexperienced so I'm pretty sure she doesn't get it, but that didn't stop them from appointing her as State Secretary of Defence, but that's a much less important position than Foreign Affairs Minister. Then again, she has 3/4 months of experience with Foreign Affairs, which is more than Zijlstra got Tongue. But she's an outsider, I think it's more likely they come up with an unknown VVD sympathizer from academia or the civil service (or maybe someone from the Senate).

This is my personal list based on guesswork, so I easily could have missed someone. No rights can be derived from this list Wink.
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,737


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #162 on: February 13, 2018, 12:06:49 pm »

I knew it, I've read this story before!

https://www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/zat-halbe-zijlstra-nu-wel-of-niet-met-poetin-in-een-buitenhuis~a4524949/

A Volkskrant article from 2017 already cast doubts Zijlstra's story. Why people didn't jump on this earlier surprises me.
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
freek
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 929
British Indian Ocean Territory


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #163 on: February 13, 2018, 01:42:15 pm »

Was Berkmoes the assistant or just a source?

Reminds me of something out of House of Cards...

Well, she never said that. She just said that something happened, which can mean a lot of things. And Berckmoes was a MP, so she couldn't have been the assistant.

I badly want Hans van Baalen as Foreign Minister btw.

Can't MPs be junior ministers in some capacity? Or do they always fill purely legislative functions?
Not at the same time. Banned by the constitution:

Quote
Article 57
1. No one may be a member of both Houses.
2. A member of the States General may not be a Minister, State Secretary,  member of the Council of State, member of the Court of Audit (Algemene  Rekenkamer), National Ombudsman or Deputy Ombudsman, member  of the Supreme Court, or Procurator General or Advocate General at the  Supreme Court.

3. Notwithstanding the above, a Minister or State Secretary who has  offered to tender his resignation may combine the said office with  membership of the States General until such time as a decision is taken on such resignation.
4. Other public functions which may not be held simultaneously by a person who is a member of the States General or of one of the Houses may be designated by Act of Parliament.
Logged

DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #164 on: February 14, 2018, 05:03:47 am »

Promoting Hennis to the MFA was always a bad idea and Barbara Visser barely has any foreign policy experience. I hope the VVD don't make the same mistake of appointing someone unqualified to the office and just go with Ten Broeke or Van Baalen.

Names also frequently mentioned: Edith Schippers, who is really close to Rutte but has no foreign policy experience (this is probably a non-story, as she seemed to feel relieved not to be a minister anymore), and Renee Jones-Bos, the ambassador of the Netherlands to Russia, former secretary-general at the MFA, former ambassador in Washington DC, and apparently a VVD member. She is fluent in English, French and Russian.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 07:01:45 am by DavidB. »Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Angel of Death
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,094
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #165 on: February 14, 2018, 12:42:15 pm »

Former Prime Minister Ruud Lubbers (1982-1994) just died. He was the longest reigning as well as the youngest PM in the country's history.
Logged

WARNING: Selling oil in euros has been proven to be hazardous to one's health.
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,737


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #166 on: February 15, 2018, 09:47:10 am »

RIP Lubbers. He completely dominated the political scene in the 80s (his position somewhat weakened in the 90s as far as I know). Great PM who fixed the Netherlands in the 80s and 90s. Interestingly enough both he and Dries van Agt (CDA PM from 1977 to 1982) became much more left-wing in the last decade. Some people see Lubbers as the Dutch version of Thatcher, but he became active as a humanitarian activist after his premiership.

SP, GL and PvdA signed a pact with NIDA in Rotterdam to keep Leefbaar Rotterdam out. NIDA is an Islamic party. It might work in Rotterdam where 45% or so is non-white, but I don't think this is very smart as Islamic parties are extremely toxic among non-Muslims (95% of the Dutch population). If the PvdA ever wants to win the policeman in Tiel back they're doing it the wrong way. A "Hillary" coalition between minorities and educated whites might be possible in the US and some Dutch cities, but it won't work in the Netherlands where 85-90% is white (and educated whites always have the VVD or even the CDA anyway).
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #167 on: February 15, 2018, 10:04:24 am »

Lubbers fixed the economy and deserves credit for it, but the fact that his governments continued to ignore the problems with guest workers and kept allowing chain migration to happen has caused many of today's problems. In addition, as GeenStijl said, he was "the OG of #MeToo" -- not only in New York at his UN job, but also before, in The Hague. Apparently Lubbers was severely depressed at the end of his life.

As for the "Left-Islamic Coalition", as Leefbaar named the GL-PvdA-SP-NIDA bloc: they enter the election as an alliance and want to form a coalition afterwards. I guess they will want to enter the government together with D66, as they will not even come close to 23 seats by themselves. However, D66 will not be eager to "undo" everything they did in the last four years (even with a clearly more "lefty" profile than before), and they will also want a coalition partner to their right. The VVD are set to win seats.

Not smart for the Left-Islamic Coalition to announce it beforehand, because this will scare off white working-class voters for sure and diminish their total number of seats. I especially don't understand why the more culturally conservative national SP leadership allow Rotterdam SP leader Leo de Kleijn to do this, as the SP is the party that would be hurt the most by this.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 10:24:35 am by DavidB. »Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,677
Kiribati


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #168 on: February 15, 2018, 10:52:24 am »

How Islamist is NIDA? Are they the weird woke Islam you get on campuses or what?
Logged

FWIW, CrabCake hates China. I think they said something like their dream was for robots to devastate China.

DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #169 on: February 15, 2018, 11:39:09 am »

How Islamist is NIDA? Are they the weird woke Islam you get on campuses or what?
I have no idea how "weird woke campus Islam" is, as this doesn't exist here, but I wouldn't say they are "woke": they are a conservative Muslim party (with left-wing socio-economic views) who explicitly derive their ideology and values from the Qur'an but appear to respect democracy and the rule of law as we have it in The Netherlands. However, they do have connections to some more shady peripheral organizations and persons. NIDA Rotterdam leader El Ouali, for instance, was a speaker at a controversial event organized by a group linked to Hamas.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 11:41:59 am by DavidB. »Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #170 on: February 15, 2018, 04:15:12 pm »

C A L E I D O S C O P I C

F
E
M
I
N
I
S
M
« Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 04:16:49 pm by DavidB. »Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,232
Canada


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #171 on: February 15, 2018, 04:31:12 pm »

How Islamist is NIDA? Are they the weird woke Islam you get on campuses or what?

I went to high school with someone like that. Very interesting to talk to but very weird.
Logged
🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,677
Kiribati


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #172 on: February 15, 2018, 04:42:08 pm »

How Islamist is NIDA? Are they the weird woke Islam you get on campuses or what?
I have no idea how "weird woke campus Islam" is, as this doesn't exist here

I would define it as the sort of person who says stuff like "yas queer hijabi representation!", and very earnestly quotes Edward Saidisms constantly.
Logged

FWIW, CrabCake hates China. I think they said something like their dream was for robots to devastate China.

DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #173 on: February 15, 2018, 05:46:23 pm »

How Islamist is NIDA? Are they the weird woke Islam you get on campuses or what?
I have no idea how "weird woke campus Islam" is, as this doesn't exist here
I would define it as the sort of person who says stuff like "yas queer hijabi representation!", and very earnestly quotes Edward Saidisms constantly.
Very interesting and terrible at the same time. I was in contact with quite a few of the (very few) Muslims in my program. They seemed more like the general DENK/pro-Erdogan/Free Palestine type (and very anti-Assad; rightly so!); most of them supported D66/GL (but one of them voted VVD!) before DENK came into being, but even then they were not really into "wokeness". I can handle that much better. I do think NIDA come a little bit closer to woke Islam (I believe they even said something about the LGBT community as "great allies", but am not sure anymore).
« Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 06:15:06 pm by DavidB. »Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #174 on: February 18, 2018, 05:10:50 am »

Peil.nl today, in the week of Zijlstra's resignation and the debates on the abolishment of the referendum:

VVD 27 (-)
FvD 15 (+1)
SP 15 (+1)
D66 14 (-2)
PVV 14 (-1)
CDA 14 (-1)
GL 14 (-)
PvdA 12 (-)
PvdD 7 (-)
CU 6 (+1)
50Plus 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 3 (-)

- 86% percent say that Zijlstra rightly resigned, only 33% say it is coincidence that it is mostly VVD ministers who are involved in scandals and have to resign, 66% say that Pechtold's comments regarding Russians were inappropriate. 49% would also have voted for a motion of no confidence against PM Rutte for failing to timely inform the parliament about the fact that Zijlstra's comments were untrue, 46% would have opposed such a motion.

- Eighteen of the most prominent Dutch political scientists wrote an op-ed in NRC in which they warn that abolishing the referendum will increase political distrust among lower educated people in times where the gap between "The Hague" and lower educated people is already quite big (due to the decline of the people's parties with roots in society, secularization, individualization, decline of party membership...). The National Voters' Study (NKO) 2017, held after every GE, shows that 59% of the electorate support referendums and only 25% oppose them, which makes the government's argument regarding "declining support" for the referendum seem questionable.

- The uproar within FvD continues (but apparently does not affect their polling numbers): three more 2017 GE candidates (Arthur Legger, Gert Reedijk and Freek-Jan Berkhout) gave an interview to NRC in which they criticized the leadership's way of treating former party prominents. The leadership then cancelled the three men's memberships. Legger, Reedijk and Berkhout also loathe the "radicalization" of the party ("the party is becoming far right"; "Baudet himself introduced the issue of racism and white supremacy. He follows the way of Trump and his strategist Steve Bannon.") They say Baudet is deliberately seeking how far he can go in moving the Overton window. They don't know if he is racist himself, but they think it does not matter because he spreads the ideas regardless.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 06:25:57 am by DavidB. »Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 22 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines