Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

Coalition agreement of GL, D66, PvdA, SP soon to be presented in Amsterdam. I guess people deserve what they vote for.

[DavidB.]

Coalition agreement of GL, D66, PvdA, SP soon to be presented in Amsterdam. I guess people deserve what they vote for.

I was about to call for Amsterdam-Zuid separatism, but even Amsterdam-Zuid is quite left-wing despite its affluence (VVD only got 25% there or so vs 21% nationwide). For heaven's sake, even the Zuidas (Dutch Wall Street + loads of lawyers) voted 'only' 40% VVD (32% D66). It all depends on how you see D66 I suppose. If parties have to be arbitrarily divided in a left-wing camp and a right-wing camp people tend to put D66 with the left, but I imagine D66 voters would be split 50/50 in a VVD vs generic centre-left party race.

So many affluent people and families still vote for D66 in Amsterdam, I would even say the average D66 voter in Amsterdam would be more right-wing economically than the average D66 voter nationally. D66 Amsterdam are bound to lose a lot of these voters to the VVD in the next election, especially since the VVD Amsterdam have quite a soft, social-liberal image anyway. Add to that the fact that D66's national reputation will be rather bad in 2022 (unless the government collapses in 2019 already) and that they will probably crash and burn in the next general election... But meanwhile, the left-wing coalition's policy will suck, of course.

[DavidB.]

In The Hague, a Groep De Mos-VVD-D66-GroenLinks coalition was formed; in Utrecht, it's going to be GroenLinks-D66-ChristenUnie. The coalition in Rotterdam is going to be an absolute abomination: seven parties in six groups with a majority of exactly one. The VVD youth wing in Rotterdam, known for being particularly right-wing and outspoken, already sharply criticized the VVD's choice to form this coalition.

Apologies if this has been asked before, but how do Jews vote in the Netherlands? Is there much variation in the community (i.e. nominal vs Haredi)

In addition to the excellent response by mvd10 I would say the following:

- Good to keep in mind that almost all observant Jews live in the Amsterdam metro area, more specifically in Amsterdam South and in Amstelveen. The number of Haredim is extremely small, and the percentage of the Jewish population that is completely assimilated and "gone" from a community perspective is even higher than in most other Western European countries, which means there is hardly any "Jewish infrastructure" in terms of shops etc. outside Amsterdam -- and even in Amsterdam it is relatively poor.
- From the bad news to the good news: Jews in the Netherlands are slightly more likely to vote for the right than the general population
- The PvdA receive many more votes among Jews than among the general population: within the Jewish community, we have what could be considered the last "ideologically true" Social Democratic pillar organizations, including ideological commitment to Social Democracy and Labour Zionism. The PvdA being seen as a moderate, "don't rock the boat" party helps too, as does the fact that the PvdA has historically had many Jewish politicians (with two leaders of Jewish descent this decade, Cohen and Asscher), and that many Jews live in Amsterdam.
- This goes at the expense of support for GL and SP, however. D66 is also much less popular with Jews: too right-wing for the real lefties, too anti-Israel for the relatively big Jewish demographic that does hold views that are somewhere between D66 and the VVD.
- CU are also popular with some Jewish leftists, not only because of Israel but also because of the lack of "extreme secularism", respect for religion in a relatively non-bothersome way to people who aren't that religious themselves, and attention for climate/refugees etc.
- On the right, the CDA underperform. The PVV used to perform about the same as with the general population but slightly underperformed last time around because VNL and FVD were seen as better alternatives to higher educated Jews to whom the PVV were a bit too vulgar: both VNL and FVD overperformed by a lot with Jews, and FVD overperformed with Jews in the local elections too. The SGP overperform too, not only because of Israel but also because of their genuine concern for our community's well-being.
- The more observant (/traditional/orthodox etc.), the more likely Jews are to vote for the right. Few people who go to orthodox synagogues on a regular basis vote for parties to the left of the VVD. In my orthodox synagogue, more than half of the "regulars" voted PVV, VNL or FVD. Small sample size, admittedly (N=15 or so), and we might be an outlier (most of us are actually relatively young which isn't the case elsewhere) and usually VVD and SGP would get a big share of this electorate too, but there is a trend here.
- Younger Jews are more right-wing than older Jews and more likely to vote for FVD and PVV (and less likely to vote for SGP or PvdA). There are many highly educated Jewish young professionals in Amsterdam who are part of every typical D66 demographic except for their Judaism, which makes them have a very different perspective and causes them vote for PVV or FVD (I guess I sort of belong to this group too: I fit right in there). If they have an Israeli background, they are almost certain to vote for one of the latter two parties.

[DavidB.]

Absurd from a strategic point of view that Asscher already started talking about lending a helping hand to Rutte-III, even though the party membership clearly do not accept this (yet, because it is probably going to happen anyway). Asscher just cannot help himself, which once again proves that the PvdA are so deeply middle-class/establishmentarian/"don't rock the boat" oriented and at the same time so spineless. They still don't understand why people left in droves. I suppose it is fine for the PvdA to help out Rutte-III under certain circumstances, but it is Rutte-III that should beg for it, with the PvdA demanding big concessions at that point. Looking forward to the PvdA winning only 4 or 5 Senate seats next year.

[DavidB.]

In the 2017 GE campaign, DENK were on the verge of running fake PVV ads with the text "After 15 March, we will cleanse the Netherlands", Radio 1 and NRC discovered. In order to check whether the ads would be allowed on YouTube, 11,000 Germans (lol) watching the German version of Fireman Sam (lol) were exposed to a pilot version of the ad. A more extreme version ("After 15 March, we will cleanse the Netherlands from Moroccans") was designed but rejected earlier on. The intention was to show voters that Wilders continues to go one step further everytime (and presumably to scare Turkish and Moroccan voters into voting DENK too). Only later it would be revealed that DENK were behind the ad. The online ads would link to the official PVV website. Ultimately, however, DENK decided not to use the ads because they would be beyond the pale. In classic DENK fashion, they will now sue the Radio 1 journalists who found out about this story.

[DavidB.]

An official state commission on democratic and electoral reform, led by former minister of Interior Affairs Johan Remkes (VVD), has presented a sneak preview of suggestions that will be put forward in their final report in December, some of which are quite controversial: a binding corrective referendum, an elected Prime Minister, moving towards a district-based electoral system (presumably still under PR), and an elected "coalition formateur" (e.g. a leftist voter could vote for PvdD for parliament but would prefer GL leader Jesse Klaver to receive the initiative to form a government). None are likely to be implemented under this conservative government (and many would require a constitutional revision in the first place), but these ideas will probably continue to be on the shelves: I expect D66, FVD, PVV, and some of the left-wing parties to take the advise seriously. No high hopes for real change though: the Dutch constitution is relatively "set in stone" and remarkably few substantial changes have taken place since 1848. There have been several commissions like this one over the last couple of decades, and almost none of their advises have ever been implemented.

The commission finds the increasing gap in opinions between higher and lower educated voters combined with lower educated voters' increasing lack of the sense that they are being represented the most worrying development in Dutch democracy.

[DavidB.]

The PVV has really gone down the tubes. Henk Bres is a PVV "stand-in local councilman" in The Hague, elected with preferential votes despite being too low on the list. He is well-known locally for being a not particularly smart loudmouth idiot (him being on the PVV list was absurd in the first place) and also known for "charming" remarks such as "f**king cancer Muslims", and he now retweeted this infantile cartoon depicting Mark Rutte being bought and paid for by The Jews:
https://twitter.com/RMBras1973/status/1011303179131195392

[DavidB.]

Love woke Dutch Twitter insisting Baudet, Wilders, Rutte and Buma are all fascists.

An interesting indicator of just how quickly the debate on immigration and asylum has shifted: only three years ago, VVD immigration spokesman Malik Azmani almost stood alone in proposing migration deals with Northern African countries and an end to the right to come to Europe and ask for asylum. Now, 85% of parliament support this. Not only D66 and CU have pulled a 180 since the election campaign, but so did PvdA (Asscher's visit to Denmark's SDs might have played a role here too) and SP (Roemer was more of an "internationalist" than Marijnissen/Meyer), which means GL almost stand alone in their opposition, with only the small PvdD and DENK on their side.

[DavidB.]

I think mvd10 is just as qualified as I to answer these questions, which are rather broad, but here goes...

- In terms of immigration policy I don't actually think the Netherlands is among the most "hardline" countries in Western Europe: Denmark and Austria clearly seem to be ahead of us.
- Wilders' PVV might well end up being obsolete, but mostly due to his own strategic mistakes, such as not campaigning in the 2017 General Election. As a result, FVD appears to be a good replacement to the PVV to many. However, it is also true that CDA and VVD have moved to the right due to the PVV's strong electoral position, the fact that the PVV have essentially steered the immigration debate in their direction, and the fact that there are many VVD/PVV and CDA/PVV swing voters.
- The 2015 migration crisis has mostly affected rural communities with asylum seeker centers, where the inflow of immigrants has had a very disruptive effect. Outside these areas, the impact has been relatively minimal. I live in a big city and am not sure I have ever seen any migrants taken in in 2015. But of course I do live in a minority-majority neighborhood and in a minority-majority city and it all adds up. Many Dutch people, like me, live in areas where they do not only feel as if they are a minority, they actually are a minority. Taking in almost 400k refugees in four years does not exactly improve the situation, especially in the long run, given birth rates.
- Difficult to say whether smaller countries in terms of size are more vulnerable to the socially disruptive effects of mass immigration than bigger countries. Population might matter more here than the geographical size of the country.
- I think the economy is doing very well, unemployment is low, the public finances situation is good, the education and healthcare systems generally work well even though an increasing number of people (1 million in 2017) have trouble affording their healthcare deductibles. However, we do have low native birthrates (though not as bad as Germany) and an aging population.
- The CDA have an existential problem as declining partisanship, secularization and an aging base mean that their electoral potential has decreased by a lot. They have to find a new strategy to appeal to center-right voters, but are strongly divided internally and their future looks bleak, though the Dutch electorate is volatile and the CDA could absolutely still win a general election with a good leader who has a strong message.
- CU are not like CSU: they are an independent party (not in any alliance with the CDA) with a clearly more left-wing profile than CDA (as opposed to CSU, who are more right-wing than the CDU, of course).
- I love living in the Netherlands, even more so after having lived and worked abroad. Most things (education, economy, healthcare, bureaucracy) are organized very well, I find most of the Dutch cities to be beautiful, the high population density means that there are a lot of facilites and an excellent public transit network running day and night, it is located quite centrally within Europe, and I find many of the rural areas to be beautiful too. Things that I like less are the weather and the fact that excelling is slightly looked down upon ("acting normal is crazy enough already" is one of our most common expressions).

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your kind response!

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, former GL leader Femke Halsema will be the new mayor of Amsterdam and also the first non-PvdA mayor in Amsterdam since WW2.

[DavidB.]

Completely agreed with mvd10 and SunSt0rm. There don't really seem to be any factional differences within the VVD anymore, because Rutte's historical run of electoral successes has turned the party into the Rutte machine. It is difficult to pin down Klaas Dijkhoff ideologically; I suspect his "natural leaning" might be slightly more to the right than Rutte's, but I doubt this will actually matter given that both are, err, quite "flexible"... It's easier to pin down Schippers: she is to Rutte's left when it comes to progressive vs. conservative issues ("social issues", as the Americans call them), but more right-wing on immigration and the like, and she has been quite open about this. But Dijkhoff is going to be Rutte's successor anyway.

The VVD's latest tactic is to chime in to every "identity politics" or "culture war" debate and pick the right-wing, "traditionalist" side -- this used to be Zijlstra's job, but it is Dijkhoff's job now. The left call this VVD tactic "PVV statute labour", performed in order to appeal to VVD-PVV swing voters (which is true, but it also contains the element that the VVD aren't sincere in expressing these positions, which I am less sure about -- at this point, many VVD MPs are not very distinguishable from PVV MPs in terms of actual policy positions). This usually does not have any direct consequences in terms of policy, which makes it particularly smart strategy in appealing to people because the political costs are zero. Notable exception where this did affect policymaking: a D66 deputy minister and a CDA minister were preparing a ban on consumer fireworks for New Year's Eve, but the VVD vetoed this idea, as this is regarded as a culture war issue.

[DavidB.]

I thought PvdD, as a testimonial party, wasn't interested in being involved with government coalitions. Has their position on that changed?

No, they generally aren't interested in participating in coalitions, but they could theoretically support a sufficiently left-wing coalition (i.e. one that will never have a majority in NL...) from the outside.

[DavidB.]

Speaking of PvdD, and I swear I saw someone mention at some point that they got quite a lot of a protest in the kinds of places you wouldn't necessarily expect. So, beyond the obvious kind of person who would vote for a party like them, who is voting PvdD as a protest option?

People who are less likely to be interested in politics and may feel either apathetic to or disgruntled with "The Hague", but to whom animal welfare is specific and important enough to take interest in, and who view the PvdD as "outsiders" by focusing on this specific issue. There are quite a lot of these people.

Sorry, one more follow-up to the coalition question:

If there were enough seats, would a GL-D66-SP-PvdA-50+ coalition with PvdD and DENK support be possible? Would parties work with DENK, and would D66 leave the government for this type of deal?

I don't think we're ever going to have a coalition without either VVD or CDA participating in it. The numbers just aren't there.

In any case, the above option would be too difficult even if it were numerically possible. I suspect GL could perhaps be open to working together with DENK in some way in the future, but this is going to take time, and it will probably have to occur on a local level first. DENK-SP (the SP hate DENK, DENK hate Sadet Karabulut) and DENK-PvdA (they both hate each other) cooperation would be even more difficult. D66-SP is also a difficult combination nationally, and D66 would definitely prefer the current government over a hotchpotch coalition like this. 50Plus' voters are quite similar to PVV voters in terms of attitudes on immigration and "culture wars", and the leadership knows it.

[DavidB.]

Fully enjoying the ride with VVD Foreign Ministers handpicked by Mark Rutte because they are loyalists. Zembla journalists found out that during a recent closed-off meeting, Minister of Foreign Affairs Stef Blok claimed that he does not know any multicultural society that is peaceful. "Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or multicultural society still inhabited by the native population (...) with a peaceful state of coexistence. I don't know one." People would be genetically predisposed "not to be able to bond with strangers", which is the reason why societies "reach their boundaries quickly" when it comes to taking in immigrants. He therefore calls himself "pragmatic when it comes to xenophobia."

Blok claims to understand native Dutch people in minority-majority neighborhoods in Amsterdam and The Hague and says that it is much easier to appreciate multiculturalism if you live in Benoordenhout, a highly affluent, 95%> white neighborhood in The Hague. He also called Suriname a "failed state" and blames it on multiculturalism, and he voiced his skepticism of EU refugee quota, as Eastern Europeans would never accept taking in immigrants: "Even if we twist their arms to their back and they say "yes", it will not happen. Take a walk on the streets of Warsaw or Prague, there are no colored people there. These people would leave within a week. They would probably literally be beaten up. They wouldn't have a life there."

As a consequence, a sh**tstorm has unleashed on Blok, with the parliamentary foreign policy spokesmen of government parties D66 and Blok's own VVD rushing to condemn his statements, together with pro-refugee organizations and the like.

[DavidB.]

Blok was mostly right imo (except for the Suriname comments, as calling it a failed state seems overly harsh), and most VVD voters probably don't mind. From an electoral perspective this isn't going to harm the VVD, but the remarks on Suriname are damaging to the Dutch-Surinamese relationship, which is already quite rocky: we currently do not have an ambassador in Suriname, as the Dutch government's pick was rejected.

Blok assuming that such comments behind closed doors remain private seems awfully naive. On the upside, to me it is encouraging that VVD politicians who actually hold power make such comments behind close doors: this was not "PVV statute labour" but a politician speaking his mind. It seems as if many VVD politicians have slowly come around and now basically don't disagree all that much with a party like FVD on immigration anymore: it is the EU, direct democracy, the "conspiratorial" vibe, and geopolitical issues (Russia) where they find FVD to be most objectionable.

[DavidB.]

In the eyes of the Baudetjugend only women can be seen as sexual lust objects.

I beg to differ...

David has been conspicuously absent. I suppose he's having the time of his life somewhere right now.

Hahaha, the time of my life writing a long-ass paper while my room is as hot as Ayelet Shaked, sure. Baudet is not my type

what

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ORJiFt6LC0

[DavidB.]

Jozias van Aartsen (ex-VVD leader, former interim Amsterdam mayor) is rather worried about the VVD. He says the VVD is too populist and too negative about religious Muslims (he's talking about Salafi Muslims). Sure Jozias, being #woke worked so well for us in the early and mid 2000s . During his term as mayor van Aartsen also was heavily criticized for being too soft on illegal refugees who were squatting several buildings in Amsterdam. I think the national VVD is very happy that he's gone now tbh. Van Aartsen is a known moderate/social liberal, but ironically he also tried to keep Wilders in the VVD when Wilders was a rebellious VVD MP. It's clear that people like van Aartsen have lost any remaining influence they had in the VVD, Rutte 'converted' and the people who are waiting to take over also are quite right-wing.

Van Aartsen was also the mayor of The Hague who said that "no lines were crossed" when protesters in The Hague chanted "death to the Jews" and waved their ISIS/Hezbollah flags in the summer of 2014. So tolerant.

Anyway, majorities of voters disapprove of Blok's comments on Suriname (60%) and multicultural societies (55%). Even most VVD voters seem to disapprove of Blok.

So 45% of the Dutch agree that there isn't a single successful multicultural country (pretty extreme statement) and 40% think Suriname is a failed state (which seems a ludicrous comment even to me). Don't understand the general media spin as if this is supposedly something positive for the left.

[DavidB.]

The CDA in the EP seem to be more inclined to do what the EPP want than to do what the national CDA want. I have to give the VVD some credit here: they don't just go along with anything ALDE want, as they sometimes rebel and are pretty consistent in what they advocate in The Hague and in Brussels (the "Euroskeptical at home, pro-EU in Brussels" thing is more of a Rutte issue than a VVD MEPs issue imo). By contrast, the CDA's MEPs will blatantly go against the party line in the Netherlands. Their MEPs voted for recognizing Palestinian statehood, for example, despite the HQ opposing it. The reason is that the "old guard" (leftier than the national leadership) is overrepresented among MEPs. I also think the MEP delegation of the CDA has been disproportionately Southern/Catholic for a long time.

Anyhow, I don't expect any changes in the CDA MEPs' pro-EPP, pro-Eurofederalist voting patterns.

[DavidB.]

Had never heard of that Felix Klos guy, by the way. Hot damn, does he look like a pretentious a**hole. Though I see the irony of an FVD member saying this 100 euros that he wrote his own Wikipedia article. He looks like the kind of guy who could absolutely be on the D66 list (and a potential EP leadership bid could parachute him up on the list), but I think there's no doubt that In 't Veld will lead the next D66 delegation.

[DavidB.]

An incredibly sad story. I have to say that I was skeptical at first, but now it has been revealed that the mayor of The Hague, Pauline Krikke, knew about Dille's story, as did the police. Dille's video with subtitles can be viewed here. If this really happened, this country is sick.

[DavidB.]

An incredibly sad story. I have to say that I was skeptical at first, but now it has been revealed that the mayor of The Hague, Pauline Krikke, knew about Dille's story, as did the police. Dille's video with subtitles can be viewed here. If this really happened, this country is sick.

Honestly I'm surprised similar scandals (eg Rotherham) haven't caused mass riots. The police not doing their jobs because they're worried that arresting rapists might create anti-immigrant sentiment is a big effort into deal. It's outrageous.

The aspect of absurdity is important here, I think. These sorts of things are so incomprehensible that many people might literally be unable to allow the idea that they happen to enter their "system". People might not call into question the facts, but it's not the same.

These things mean that the state has completely failed its task to protect its citizens, which is the most fundamental task of the state. But for individuals, life goes on just like before, and cognitive dissonance is easy to sustain. People protesting the state of affairs will then be viewed as lunatics with too much time on their hands.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl also polled to which extent people agree with the controversial remarks by Foreign Affairs Minister Stef Blok (VVD). It appears as if most right-wing voters agree with most of what he said. 47% agree with his statement that there is no successful, peaceful multicultural society in which the indigenous population is still there (91% of FVD voters in GE17, 89% of PVV voters, 63% of VVD voters, 53% of CDA voters). 75% agree that it will never be possible to come to an arrangement in which Eastern European countries take in refugees (this goes against the coalition agreement but wasn't the most controversial part - the controversial part was where he said that refugees would literally - sic - be beaten up on the streets in these countries within two weeks). 46% agree with Blok's statement that humans are genetically programmed not to be able to bond with alien people to us (74% FVD, 68% PVV, 63% VVD, 54% CDA). And 59% agree that multiculturalism is very troublesome if you live in a multicultural neighborhood and that it is easy to appreciate multiculturalism if you live in a white neighborhood (91% PVV, 90% FVD, 75% VVD, 72% CDA). I think the percentage of PvdA voters who agree with this statement shows insight in why the PvdA cannot go the Danish Social Democratic way: only 22% agree, compared to 23% of GL voters and 35% of D66 voters - the PvdA is a deeply middle-class party.

Only 34% agreed with Blok's comment that Suriname is a failed state due to ethnic divisions (72% PVV, 53% FVD, 45% VVD, 40% CDA).

49% think he was right to apologize, 45% say it was not necessary (VVD voters: 34/60). 29% say he should resign over these comments (D66 voters: 38/50), 64% say this would be unnecessary.

[DavidB.]

Current PvdA voters are deeply middle-class, but I wonder what the results would have looked like with potential PvdA voters. But I agree that they'll never be able to go as far as the Danish social democrats. According to peil.nl's table 66% of PvdA 2012 voters voted for D66, GL, PvdA, DENK or PvdD. And I don't know how reliable peil.nl's demographic breakdowns are, but apparently PvdA slightly overperformed with educated voters even in 2012. According to peil.nl PvdA won 26% of high-educated voters and 21% of (self-described?) high income voters in 2012 while they won 19% and 15% of those groups in 1994. So I guess the PvdA has been deeply middle-class (moreso than the other European social democrats?) for a while.

Current PvdA voters might indeed be a tad more middle-class than their potential voter base, and I even think the Danish way could be a fruitful electoral strategy for the PvdA - but it will not happen, because the party membership and its core base is too middle-class and ideologically "internationalist" to accept this ever happening.

And as you already alluded to, the PvdA's voter base has been more middle-class than the voter base of the SPD, Danish Social Democrats, UK Labour, Swedish Social Democrats etc. for a long time.

The reason is that the PvdA has been just as popular with the middle-class demographics (public servants, teachers, etc.) and the "bobo" type of voter that these parties attract as its international counterparts, but that a bigger part of the Dutch working-class historically doesn't vote for the PvdA: a big chunk of the Catholic working class historically voted KVP and then went to the CDA. They might now vote PVV, SP, CDA or even VVD (or stay home), and even if they may consider the PvdA a potential option in their "set of choices", few of them vote for the PvdA on a consistent basis (the 2012 GE, in which voting was rather class-based by Dutch standards, is actually a good example of the exception to this rule).

Two results from this: 1) a Social Democratic party (and the left as a whole!) that is structurally weaker than in Germany, the UK, Sweden and Denmark; 2) a Social Democratic party that is structurally more reliant on middle-class voters (and a middle-class base) than its counterparts - which obviously affects its potential ideological course.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl today:

[DavidB.]

Why is the CDA doing so badly?

It is mostly classic story of a junior coalition partner whose profile in the government is unclear. The dividend tax repeal is also much more resented by CDA voters than VVD voters. And then there is the fact that Rutte mainly ran on continuation and Buma on change - and this is mainly a government of continuation (as almost all governments in the Netherlands really are, given that we have never had a government without at least one party that was in the previous government - think about that!) I think Peil is overestimating FVD's gains and CDA/VVD's losses by a bit, but it boils down to this, I think.