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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands  (Read 37232 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #200 on: March 03, 2018, 01:48:05 pm »

It's called context. Wouldn't expect you to get it, but others who read this might. I am always the first one to post about FvD scandals in this thread, just like I post about other parties' scandals, but I also try to offer context; the type of context De Volkskrant might not offer.

Panic starting to set into the JFvD ranks I see.
You should ask a JFvD member. I have no idea.
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EPG
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« Reply #201 on: March 04, 2018, 05:21:17 am »

Do young people really believe they can write trash, then expect to seek power over people without standing by their words? Just because it's on the internet? Probably not - instead, anyone who has been active in youth politics will know this kind of personality, attention-seeking and ultimately self-destructive.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #202 on: March 04, 2018, 05:56:58 am »

I think it's a learning curve: a lot of young people are steeped in irony and memes, and believe that its all very clever and funny to argue from absurd directions and use taboo references to nasty regimes, or jokingly argue for diabolical causes. Unfortunately this often spectacularly backfires offline, as we've seen many times from both left and right wing activists.
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FWIW, CrabCake hates China. I think they said something like their dream was for robots to devastate China.

DavidB.
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« Reply #203 on: March 04, 2018, 09:23:35 am »

I think it's a learning curve: a lot of young people are steeped in irony and memes, and believe that its all very clever and funny to argue from absurd directions and use taboo references to nasty regimes, or jokingly argue for diabolical causes. Unfortunately this often spectacularly backfires offline, as we've seen many times from both left and right wing activists.
Completely agreed. Of course it was a mistake for Ramautarsing to assume he would be fine with so many people in that group rejecting his worldview and him, but it is through the free exchange of ideas that people learn things and adapt their views. This should of course happen behind closed doors. The problem is that a WhatsApp group can seem "behind closed doors"  but suddenly literally make headlines in quality newspapers.

On the one hand, "what has been seen cannot be unseen" and for this reason Ramautarsing basically had to go. On the other hand, it is a sad state of affairs when every online statement by somebody in the past, ever, can be used to discredit this person. It makes us less free.

Do young people really believe they can write trash, then expect to seek power over people without standing by their words? Just because it's on the internet? Probably not - instead, anyone who has been active in youth politics will know this kind of personality, attention-seeking and ultimately self-destructive.
The biggest cancer in youth politics is not people who make absurd, provocative statements because they're young and they're experimenting and learning, but people who have no views whatsoever (or brains, for that matter) and lick themselves all the way up.
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EPG
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« Reply #204 on: March 04, 2018, 11:53:24 am »

Erm, perhaps it's a harsh lesson but people absolutely must have the freedom to report about the opinions of others, particularly politicians who seek authority and power over us. It is in fact a foundational freedom (free expression / press).
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coloniac
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« Reply #205 on: March 04, 2018, 12:27:30 pm »

Erm, perhaps it's a harsh lesson but people absolutely must have the freedom to report about the opinions of others, particularly politicians who seek authority and power over us. It is in fact a foundational freedom (free expression / press).

Quiet, the real scandal here is the D66 infiltrator leaking WhatsApp conversations! After all he's D66!!!
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mvd10
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« Reply #206 on: March 05, 2018, 03:39:48 am »

Stef Blok (VVD) will be the new Foreign Affairs Minister. No foreign policy experience, but he is the epitome of a safe pair of hands. I hoped for someone with more foreign policy experience, but Blok still is a great choice.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #207 on: March 05, 2018, 07:32:58 am »

Erm, perhaps it's a harsh lesson but people absolutely must have the freedom to report about the opinions of others, particularly politicians who seek authority and power over us. It is in fact a foundational freedom (free expression / press).
Nobody says otherwise.

Stef Blok (VVD) will be the new Foreign Affairs Minister. No foreign policy experience, but he is the epitome of a safe pair of hands. I hoped for someone with more foreign policy experience, but Blok still is a great choice.
Once again it's not someone with any experience but a confidant of Mark Rutte. Still, I agree that Blok is probably a safe choice.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #208 on: March 08, 2018, 04:54:49 pm »

New poll

Rotterdam


Amsterdam
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DavidB.
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« Reply #209 on: March 10, 2018, 08:16:12 am »

Kantar poll (compared to last poll, which was published on January 31):
VVD 30 (+2)
PVV 16 (-2)
SP 16 (+1)
GL 16 (+1)
CDA 15 (-1)
D66 15 (-2)
FvD 9 (-3)
PvdA 9 (-2)
CU 6 (-)
PvdD 6 (+2)
50Plus 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 2 (-)

Interesting how the polling results for FvD vary: Peil.nl today has them still at 15. I guess the truth lies somewhere in between. Meanwhile, the SP are doing well under their new leader Lilian Marijnissen, and the electoral setback that was expected a few months ago will probably not take place anymore.

Only 56% of the voters know that a referendum will be taking place; this was 86% the same time before the Ukraine referendum. 33% say they will definitely vote. Usually this would indicate that the threshold would only barely be reached, but this time the referendum is organized together with the local elections. This creates a situation similar to that during the water board elections, which take place together with provincial elections: some voters might not vote for the water board because they really don't have a clue, but most will vote anyway. In the end turnout for the referendum should be between 40% and 50%. Turnout for the local elections will be slightly higher than last time: 55% or so.

35% intend to vote for the intelligence law, 24% oppose it, 25% don't know and 15% will not vote. "Yes" leads in all the polls. It now seems that unless there will be a dramatic change in public opinion (there is currently no campaign at all, except for a few posters by the PvdA youth) people will vote in favor of the law by about 60-40, but possibly even a wider margin. The best argument for abolishing the referendum that I've heard so far.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2018, 10:24:02 am by DavidB. »Logged
The Saint
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« Reply #210 on: March 11, 2018, 09:19:36 am »

It would be weird if the next election had VVD, SP, and FvD in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #211 on: March 11, 2018, 12:03:40 pm »

except for a few posters by the PvdA youth)

All members under sixty?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #212 on: March 11, 2018, 12:15:54 pm »

except for a few posters by the PvdA youth)
All members under sixty?
All three of them, yes.

The posters are quite good: located above urinals in bars, they say "You wouldn't want the government to watch this, right? You do have something to hide."
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EPG
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« Reply #213 on: March 11, 2018, 03:57:26 pm »

Is there a law that SP has to surge then fall back to PvdA every mid-term?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #214 on: March 11, 2018, 06:29:46 pm »

New peil.nl poll has PVV at lowest level since 2008.

Seats (compared to last week):
VVD 25 (-1)
SP 16 (-)
FvD 15 (-)
GL 14 (-)
D66 14 (+1)
CDA 14 (+1)
PVV 13 (-1)
PvdA 12 (-)
PvdD 7 (-)
CU 7 (-)
50Plus 7 (-)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 3 (-)

More interesting: their referendum poll has "yes" only leading by three points: 45/42. 13% are undecided. Peil.nl expect turnout to be between 40% and 45%.

55% think this law will improve security in the Netherlands, 46% think it is an unacceptable violation of privacy (respondents could express agreement with both questions). Based on voting intention in the local election, only VVD, CDA and PvdA (lol) voters would support the law: 67/19, 69/18 and 53/34 respectively. D66 voters in the local election will oppose the intelligence law by 47/44, which probably means that their larger GE17 electorate is even more opposed to it.

Meanwhile, there is commotion about the cooperation agreement between the Left and the Islamic party NIDA in Rotterdam, with national SP leader Lilian Marijnissen today stating that "I would not have made the choice" to cooperate with NIDA. Marijnissen she thinks the SP are ideologically too far away from NIDA: "They want a more prominent place for religion in society, while the SP consider the separation between church and state of great importance." Internally, most of the party appear to oppose SP Rotterdam leader Leo de Kleijn's decision to strike this agreement; De Kleijn even stated that he didn't particularly care for which of the four parties people would vote. Things got worse when this old NIDA tweet went viral this evening (see the picture):

... which was immediately disavowed by PvdA Rotterdam leader Barbara Kathmann. I don't think GL, SP and PvdA quite understood what they were doing when they signed their agreement with NIDA.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 06:39:45 pm by DavidB. »Logged
DavidB.
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« Reply #215 on: March 12, 2018, 12:08:45 pm »

The Left-Islamic alliance was disbanded by PvdA and GL following NIDA's refusal to denounce their 2014 tweet after 2.5 hours of crisis negotiations. The national PvdA and GL party organizations apparently pressured their local branches into doing so, as GL Rotterdam leader Judith Bokhove had first been unwilling to end cooperation with NIDA when Klaver had already stated that NIDA had to retract their statement. It is unclear whether the alliance between PvdA, GL and SP will still continue to exist. This incident might also have ramifications for the coalition formation process.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #216 on: March 16, 2018, 01:23:59 pm »

Polls show a big generation gap on the referendum law. Support for the law by age group according to the latest I&O poll:
18-34: 44% opposed, 34% in favor, 22% undecided
35-49: 45% in favor, 29% opposed, 26% undecided
50-64: 55/28 in favor with 17% undecided
65+: 63/21 with 16% undecided.
In total: 51/30 in favor with 19% undecided.

The youth organizations of government parties VVD, D66 and CU oppose the law too (but the CDA youth support it).
---

Meanwhile, the PvdD are introducing a new initiative law to ban Jewish and Muslim ritual slaughter. The difference with the previous initiative will be that a five-year "transition period" is part of the plan. The previous initiative passed in pariament with support of all non-confessional parties, but was soundly defeated in the Senate, where VVD, PvdA and D66 decided to oppose the initiative in addition to the confessional parties. CDA, SGP, CU and DENK will definitely oppose the new PvdD initiative, PVV and PvdD will definitely support it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #217 on: March 16, 2018, 02:25:54 pm »


Meanwhile, the PvdD are introducing a new initiative law to ban Jewish and Muslim ritual slaughter. The difference with the previous initiative will be that a five-year "transition period" is part of the plan. The previous initiative passed in pariament with support of all non-confessional parties, but was soundly defeated in the Senate, where VVD, PvdA and D66 decided to oppose the initiative in addition to the confessional parties. CDA, SGP, CU and DENK will definitely oppose the new PvdD initiative, PVV and PvdD will definitely support it.

This is why I love Dutch politics: the tiny parties that would meet enter parliament elsewhere, and the bizarre alliances formed to pass/defeat legislation. Smiley
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DavidB.
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« Reply #218 on: March 17, 2018, 09:36:55 am »

Most recent Rotterdam poll. Leefbaar up from 9 to 11, PVV down from 3 to 1 -- completely deserved. The only remotely realistic coalition based on these numbers is GL-SP-VVD-D66-PvdA, maybe with the CDA as well. A complete monstrosity, and suicide for the VVD. Negotiations are going to be terrible.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #219 on: March 18, 2018, 11:30:52 am »

A local government department in Amsterdam of which I had never heard, OIS, conducted a poll. Quite brutal for D66 and PvdA. Good poll for the right: it would mean that the (leftish) VVD Amsterdam attract quite some D66 voters to compensate for the loss of voters to FvD.

Former party leader Frits Bolkestein criticized Amsterdam VVD leader Eric van den Burg for being too left-wing this weekend, saying that he would vote for the #5 on the list, Hala Naoum Nehm.

As for D66, GL Amsterdam leader Rutger Groot Wassink said it best: "It did not even take them four years to become the same arrogant lunatics as the PvdA were in the sixty years before."



Bonus content: this absolutely brutal "Spot the differences" ad by the SP Amsterdam, attacking GL for supposedly being exactly like D66, symbolized by the cargo bike, the ultimate symbol of bougie white highly educated "progressive" vegan gentrifying Amsterdam -- the people who will now turn from D66 to GL. "Make a real difference. Vote SP Amsterdam."
« Last Edit: March 18, 2018, 11:46:42 am by DavidB. »Logged
Harlow
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« Reply #220 on: March 18, 2018, 12:47:55 pm »

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?
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jeron
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« Reply #221 on: March 18, 2018, 01:19:08 pm »

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?

If something looks like a tomato it usually is a tomato. The SP has been using the tomato as a symbol for years.
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jeron
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« Reply #222 on: March 18, 2018, 01:26:02 pm »

A local government department in Amsterdam of which I had never heard, OIS, conducted a poll. Quite brutal for D66 and PvdA. Good poll for the right: it would mean that the (leftish) VVD Amsterdam attract quite some D66 voters to compensate for the loss of voters to FvD.

Former party leader Frits Bolkestein criticized Amsterdam VVD leader Eric van den Burg for being too left-wing this weekend, saying that he would vote for the #5 on the list, Hala Naoum Nehm.

As for D66, GL Amsterdam leader Rutger Groot Wassink said it best: "It did not even take them four years to become the same arrogant lunatics as the PvdA were in the sixty years before."



Bonus content: this absolutely brutal "Spot the differences" ad by the SP Amsterdam, attacking GL for supposedly being exactly like D66, symbolized by the cargo bike, the ultimate symbol of bougie white highly educated "progressive" vegan gentrifying Amsterdam -- the people who will now turn from D66 to GL. "Make a real difference. Vote SP Amsterdam."


This probably means that there will be a GL-D66-VVD coalition, with an outside chance for PvdA. SP would be out of the coalition
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jeron
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« Reply #223 on: March 18, 2018, 01:37:30 pm »

Most recent Rotterdam poll. Leefbaar up from 9 to 11, PVV down from 3 to 1 -- completely deserved. The only remotely realistic coalition based on these numbers is GL-SP-VVD-D66-PvdA, maybe with the CDA as well. A complete monstrosity, and suicide for the VVD. Negotiations are going to be terrible.


There was a coalition of LR-D66-CDA and it could continue by adding VVD. That will not be easy either, but is seems better than a 5 or 6 party coalition. It is clear that we desperately need some kind of electoral threshold
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DavidB.
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« Reply #224 on: March 18, 2018, 01:53:50 pm »

I agree that both would be options, but still negotiations would be difficult in both cases. In Amsterdam, GL have campaigned for a radically different way of doing things. They would lose credibility (also nationally!) if they enter a coalition with two parties, D66 and the VVD, that were not only part of the previous (current) coalition, but are also the epitome of the type of neoliberalism GL claim to oppose. Jesse Klaver probably won't be too pleased if they do this. But with one more seat, GL-PvdA-D66 is possible. That would definitely be an option all three parties could live with.

In Rotterdam, D66 have a markedly more left-wing profile this time (which is not only pre-election window dressing, but is also expressed in terms of candidates) and internally they are a mess. First they opposed renewed cooperation with LR as long as they do not renounce their alliance with FvD, which LR of course won't do, but now D66 leader Said Kasmi rules out cooperation altogether. Entering a coalition with LR, VVD and CDA will therefore be really difficult for D66, though I also think it could happen, especially if the (former) Left Alliance don't have a majority together with D66 and PvdD.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2018, 02:04:34 pm by DavidB. »Logged
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