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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands  (Read 25730 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2017, 03:55:23 pm »

Are the tax changes final or could the senate scuttle them?  I would think raising the VAT would be politically risky but it does seem in continental Europe unlike the English speaking world have a strongly progressive tax system is less of an issue.  Otherwise raising regressive taxes and cutting progressive ones doesn't seem to get the same backlash.  Now from an economic stand point, I think what they are doing is a good idea, just not sure if it will sell well although perhaps maybe Netherlands is more fiscally conservative than here in Canada where the soak the rich idea is in vogue right now.
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« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2017, 03:33:43 pm »

There are commies outside of Groningen Shocked? GL and SP aren't represented in their municipal council, perhaps the commies are in because GL and SP didn't run? Heiloo also isn't that left-wing, the VVD got 35% in 2012 and 30% in 2017.
NCPN Heiloo is a one-man operation by Willem Gomes. Only in 2014, the party had more than one candidate.

In 2014 a second councillor was elected, but he left soon after. An interesting article about Gomes is found here: https://www.trouw.nl/home/de-eenzame-communist-van-heiloo~a036c527/

Heiloo never had a history of communism, most NCPN votes are essentially personal votes for Gomes. Previously there was 1 CPN councillor 1946-1953, and CPN never returned (as in so many municipalities).
NCPN/Gomes did gain some votes though when the local GroenLinks chapter was liquidated in 2014.  In the past GroenLinks (and predecessors) were represented in the council from 1982-2010 with 1 or 2 seats. In 2010 there was a joint list with D66.
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mvd10
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« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2017, 03:48:04 pm »

Are the tax changes final or could the senate scuttle them?  I would think raising the VAT would be politically risky but it does seem in continental Europe unlike the English speaking world have a strongly progressive tax system is less of an issue.  Otherwise raising regressive taxes and cutting progressive ones doesn't seem to get the same backlash.  Now from an economic stand point, I think what they are doing is a good idea, just not sure if it will sell well although perhaps maybe Netherlands is more fiscally conservative than here in Canada where the soak the rich idea is in vogue right now.

I think the repeal of the dividend tax is the only measure that might be reversed. Maybe they'll go with a corporate tax cut or a employer side payroll tax cut instead. But I still think the dividend tax will be repealed. I don't think they will reverse the VAT hike. It would bring in 2.5 billion euros and it becomes incredibly hard to finance their tax reform without that money.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2017, 04:16:55 pm »

Are the tax changes final or could the senate scuttle them?  I would think raising the VAT would be politically risky but it does seem in continental Europe unlike the English speaking world have a strongly progressive tax system is less of an issue.  Otherwise raising regressive taxes and cutting progressive ones doesn't seem to get the same backlash.  Now from an economic stand point, I think what they are doing is a good idea, just not sure if it will sell well although perhaps maybe Netherlands is more fiscally conservative than here in Canada where the soak the rich idea is in vogue right now.

I think the repeal of the dividend tax is the only measure that might be reversed. Maybe they'll go with a corporate tax cut or a employer side payroll tax cut instead. But I still think the dividend tax will be repealed. I don't think they will reverse the VAT hike. It would bring in 2.5 billion euros and it becomes incredibly hard to finance their tax reform without that money.

Correct me if wrong but isn't this a case of cutting taxes for the rich while raising for lower incomes.  While there may be good economic reasons to do so, is the public generally onside with this as I know in the English speaking world it wouldn't go over well.  When are the tax cuts supposed to take effect and could the senate kill them due to changes in composition or is the senate safe?
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mvd10
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« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2017, 04:22:16 pm »

Are the tax changes final or could the senate scuttle them?  I would think raising the VAT would be politically risky but it does seem in continental Europe unlike the English speaking world have a strongly progressive tax system is less of an issue.  Otherwise raising regressive taxes and cutting progressive ones doesn't seem to get the same backlash.  Now from an economic stand point, I think what they are doing is a good idea, just not sure if it will sell well although perhaps maybe Netherlands is more fiscally conservative than here in Canada where the soak the rich idea is in vogue right now.

I think the repeal of the dividend tax is the only measure that might be reversed. Maybe they'll go with a corporate tax cut or a employer side payroll tax cut instead. But I still think the dividend tax will be repealed. I don't think they will reverse the VAT hike. It would bring in 2.5 billion euros and it becomes incredibly hard to finance their tax reform without that money.

Correct me if wrong but isn't this a case of cutting taxes for the rich while raising for lower incomes.  While there may be good economic reasons to do so, is the public generally onside with this as I know in the English speaking world it wouldn't go over well.  When are the tax cuts supposed to take effect and could the senate kill them due to changes in composition or is the senate safe?

Taxes for the poor won't increase though. The standard tax credit will also increase. And the poor likely also will see things like higher child benefits so very few people will actually lose out under this government. And the senate should theoretically be safe, they also have a 1-seat majority there.

Josse de Voogd (my king is alive!) once called the Netherlands a very left-wing country where the right always wins Tongue. Indeed it looks like there are a lot of rural areas which vote for the right (not the VVD, but other right-wing parties) but probably support a very left-wing economic agenda. In elections where economic issues are dominant the cities often swing to the right while the rural areas swing to the left. But when cultural issues are dominant the rural areas become even more right-wing while the cities become even more left-wing.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2017, 04:55:56 pm »

When do senate changes potentially happen as one seat seems slim so otherwise they would have to pass the changes before the next municipal elections is my understanding?
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mvd10
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« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2017, 05:39:38 pm »

They would need to pass it before the provincial elections (2019). Party discipline is extremely strong in the Netherlands so governing with an extremely small majority is possible (but it's still hard).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #32 on: November 10, 2017, 06:19:19 am »

Kinda changed my mind on the dividend tax. If it's really a necessary step to keep Shell, Unilever etc. here, including tens of thousands of jobs, then I support it. But the government should be open about the companies and the number of jobs that are on the line.

More good news for mvd10: I'm inclined to vote for the VVD in the upcoming local election.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2017, 06:53:42 am by DavidB. »Logged
mvd10
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« Reply #33 on: November 10, 2017, 08:00:24 am »

Kinda changed my mind on the dividend tax. If it's really a necessary step to keep Shell, Unilever etc. here, including tens of thousands of jobs, then I support it. But the government should be open about the companies and the number of jobs that are on the line.

More good news for mvd10: I'm inclined to vote for the VVD in the upcoming local election.

Welcome to the dark side Grin

Ironically I've become less enthusiastic about repealing the dividend tax. The Netherlands has a lot of tax deals with developed countries, so investors can get a rebate on most of the dividend tax they pay to the Dutch government which means a large part of this tax cut would go to foreign governments. I'm also not really sure whether we should take these threats seriously. The only country with no dividend tax is the UK and I doubt that the UK is an attractive place for those countries. Basing your tax policy on the threats of 4 multinationals doesn't seem like a good approach.  Further reducing the corporate income tax probably also would have kept those companies in the Netherlands and it also would help smaller companies (and it would be less controversial). Most economists polled by the Telegraaf also mentioned that a corporate tax cut would have made more sense (9 out of 10 opposed the repeal of the dividend tax). But ironically one of those economists who oppose repealing the dividend actually tweeted that the dividend tax should be repealed a couple of years ago.

Then again, apparently Trump's tax plan would change the rules for the tax credit for foreign dividends so perhaps it's a good idea after all (and the rest of the world usually follows the US on tax policy so it's possible that more countries will eliminate the rebate and encourage companies to move headquarters back to their own country).

Anyway, the dividend tax is becoming quite an issue and the VVD is getting most flak. But I doubt VVD voters really care about this, this probably only makes the leftists and right-wing populists hate the VVD even more. Technically D66 State Secretary Menno Snel or CDA Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra should defend this measure in parliament, but the opposition summoned Rutte to explain it. They probably want to tie this to the VVD.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #34 on: November 10, 2017, 08:48:15 am »

Technically D66 State Secretary Menno Snel or CDA Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra should defend this measure in parliament, but the opposition summoned Rutte to explain it. They probably want to tie this to the VVD.
I read the minutes of the plenary session. Hoekstra himself directed the opposition to Rutte: the opposition parties want to know how this idea ended up being part of the coalition agreement and which actors sought to have it included, and Hoekstra says they should discuss this with Rutte, as Hoekstra was not one of the negotiators and Rutte "led" the formation.

Quote from: Wopke Hoekstra
Ik heb alleen verwezen naar de brief die de minister-president heeft gestuurd. In die brief maakt de minister-president ook expliciet opmerkingen over de vertrouwelijkheid van de stukken. Ik hoop dat de heer Nijboer ook begrijpt dat ik artikel 68 natuurlijk ken en absoluut respecteer. Aan de andere kant is het zo dat op het moment dat de minister-president in zekere zin in zijn rol als informateur deze brief heeft gestuurd, dat gesprek over die stukken dan ook in de eerste plaats met hem zou moeten zijn.

and

Quote from: Wopke Hoekstra
Ik begrijp overigens best dat de heer Van Dijck hier weer naar vraagt. Ik denk echt dat het gesprek over het proces tijdens de formatie met de minister-president, en dan in zijn hoedanigheid van informateur, gevoerd moet worden, want ik ben daar gewoon niet bij geweest.

This, by the way, is not necessarily true from a legal perspective at all. Rutte was never "informateur", as Hoekstra claims, he was only the leader of the largest political party. He became "formateur" and legally the leader of the process only after the coalition agreement was presented. Smart move on Hoekstra's part.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2017, 08:59:29 am by Gucci Gang »Logged
mvd10
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« Reply #35 on: November 10, 2017, 09:27:15 am »

Oh, I'm sorry, I thought I've read it somewhere, but you're right.
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mvd10
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« Reply #36 on: November 10, 2017, 09:45:54 am »

Left-wing parties seem to relatively unified in opposition, but this has happened before. From 2003 to 2006 there was a lot of talk about a left-wing government (PvdA-SP-GL actually scored a majority in some polls from 2004-2006) and in 2011 or 2012 PvdA-GL-SP also released a common budget. But in the end a left-wing coalition never wins a majority. And there is/was a large faction in the PvdA that really doesn't trust the SP (European Commissioner Frans Timmermans for example). But since they only have 37 seats now they're somewhat forced to work with each other. But I wouldn't be surprised if either GL or PvdA decides to ditch the other left-wing parties if they win big in 2021 (or earlier). Klaver might be more ideologically left-wing than other GL leaders and Asscher probably has learned from Rutte 2 but I still don't think left-wing cooperation will lead anywhere. The numbers just aren't there (but this could change since the Dutch electorate is very volatile).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #37 on: November 10, 2017, 09:52:33 am »

I think this image nicely illustrates the position the left is in today. They simply have to cooperate. The PvdA will undoubtedly become the winner on the left someday and ignore SP and GL. Then it will implode again, cooperate with GL and SP, and so on...


An interesting story in Algemeen Dagblad explains how Halbe Zijlstra became Minister of Foreign Affairs. This position had been reserved for Jeanine Hennis and VVD, CDA and D66 had been stuck for quite some time: they all wanted either the Finance Ministry or Social Affairs, with Zijlstra being the VVD candidate for Social Affairs. However, when Hennis had resigned as Defense Minister following her Mali scandal and was realistically out of the race for the MFA, Zijlstra showed interest in the Foreign Affairs Ministry, and therefore Hoekstra got Finance and Koolmees went to Social Affairs.
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mvd10
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« Reply #38 on: November 11, 2017, 05:51:31 am »

Apparently well-known CDA MP Pieter Omtzigt also is an useful idiot for the Russians :/.

Omtzigt called an Ukrainian man to witness. Omtzigt suggested the man hadn't been questioned before, but this was false. Omtzigt also made the man say that he saw the plane crash himself, but that wasn't true as only his wife saw the plane crash. The man wasn't even at the site that day. The man claimed that there were other planes at crash site (which is contradictory to what international researchers claimed). This helped feed some conspiracy theories about the MH17 crash (that it was an Ukrainian false flag operation).

Honestly, feeding Russian conspiracy theories and abusing the feelings of the bereaved families is shameless behaviour from Omtzigt and he definitely should either resign or be thrown out by the CDA (Lock him up!). But the problem is that Omtzigt has a huge ego and he has quite a cult following so he won't just give up his seat. If the CDA throws him out the coalition has lost it's majority and Omtzigt probably will join Baudet's party within a matter of days/

Omtzigt has claimed this all was a misunderstanding.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #39 on: November 11, 2017, 06:05:51 am »

Hilarious that it was Omtzigt's own party leader Sybrand Buma who recently stated in parliament that the Netherlands should "not be naive" about the possibility that we are being influenced by Russian propaganda as well. I find this MH17 revisionism to be very problematic, both on Omtzigt's part and on the part of FvD.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #40 on: November 12, 2017, 02:50:24 pm »

Another week, another FvD seat. The government lost three seats this week and is now at -11 compared to GE17. The dividend tax issue clearly hurts the government and helps the left, who have been coherent, convincing and effective. Peil.nl today:


The government parties seriously have to watch out that they do not become too unpopular, otherwise the local elections, to be held four months from now, may get painful. D66 had a particularly good result in 2014, benefiting from the fact that Rutte-II was at its low point in terms of popularity back then, and is likely to lose seats in the high-profile big cities. The espionage referendum, held at the same day, being in the back of their potential voters' minds will not help either: D66 has to toe the government line (in support of the law) despite having voted against it, GL can freely oppose it.
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« Reply #41 on: November 13, 2017, 08:11:26 am »

For reference: this is the Peil.nl poll of March 9, 2014. The Peil.nl poll closest to the local elections 2014 that I could find.

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DavidB.
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« Reply #42 on: November 13, 2017, 09:18:18 am »

Whoa, I had totally forgotten that the SP were so high in the polls back then, even though I did recall them gaining quite a lot in the 2014 local elections.

Apparently the PvdA were at about the same level of popularity as they are now, but depending on Asscher's success they might rise a bit more before the 2018 election. Unfortunately for the PvdA, however, DENK's participation (and the participation of parties that attract the same demographics, such as NIDA in Rotterdam and PvdE and the Islam Democrats in The Hague) will definitely hurt them in the high-profile big cities. So will GL's popularity.

The VVD lost quite a bit in 2014 and should be able to make some gains if they do not become too unpopular before March; the fact that FvD will only stand in Amsterdam will help them. The PVV being on the ballot for the first time in many places should not pose serious problems to the liberals, as the number of VVD-PVV swing voters appears to be really limited nowadays. In addition, Wilders is not on the ballot and there are bound to be a lot of scandals once the PVV candidates are announced.

But the election is probably going to be most painful for D66, who will lose to GL and perhaps even to the PvdA, but also to DENK: in 2014 D66 managed to do very well with Muslim voters.

GL should be able to top the poll in Amsterdam and Utrecht (2014: D66). The Hague will be interesting: D66 came first there in 2014 and is likely to lose, but so are the PVV and local party HSP. GL, VVD and local party Groep de Mos will gain. I would not rule out the possibility of the PvdA topping the poll in The Hague again. In Rotterdam, the question is how much the PVV's participation will hurt Leefbaar, which has an alliance with FvD. I would still place my bets on Leefbaar topping the poll, but they will not keep the 14 seats they won in 2014 and may end up in the high single digits.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 09:29:18 am by Gucci Gang »Logged
mvd10
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« Reply #43 on: November 13, 2017, 09:57:44 am »

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2016-11-06.pdf

David is right, there aren't a lot of PVV-VVD swing voters. 12% of VVD voters would have considered voting PVV while 8% of PVV voters consider voting VVD. This poll actually is from 2016 but I don't think the number is a lot different now. But in both 2012 and 2017 there must have been some PVV supporters who initially were going to vote PVV but decided to vote VVD at the last possible moment to stop the left (2012) or because of Rutte's strong response to the diplomatic row with Turkey in 2017. They're probably back to hating Rutte/the VVD now just like they immediately jumped ship after the VVD-PvdA coalition manifesto was released in 2012.

But VVD voters and PVV voters have very different demographics (just look at peil.nl's demographic breakdowns of the 2017 election). Josse de Voogd once released a GL vs SP map ("anywheres" vs "somewheres") and I think a VVD-PVV would look quite similar (once you adjust it to the VVD's 13-seat margin over the PVV). There probably would be some differences (big cities perhaps?).
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« Reply #44 on: November 14, 2017, 03:53:00 pm »

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2016-11-06.pdf

David is right, there aren't a lot of PVV-VVD swing voters. 12% of VVD voters would have considered voting PVV while 8% of PVV voters consider voting VVD. This poll actually is from 2016 but I don't think the number is a lot different now. But in both 2012 and 2017 there must have been some PVV supporters who initially were going to vote PVV but decided to vote VVD at the last possible moment to stop the left (2012) or because of Rutte's strong response to the diplomatic row with Turkey in 2017. They're probably back to hating Rutte/the VVD now just like they immediately jumped ship after the VVD-PvdA coalition manifesto was released in 2012.

But VVD voters and PVV voters have very different demographics (just look at peil.nl's demographic breakdowns of the 2017 election). Josse de Voogd once released a GL vs SP map ("anywheres" vs "somewheres") and I think a VVD-PVV would look quite similar (once you adjust it to the VVD's 13-seat margin over the PVV). There probably would be some differences (big cities perhaps?).

He heard your request

https://twitter.com/Jossedevoogd/status/930156582641520640



Rotterdam seems to be the big city you are talking of that votes strangely. Rotterdam never struck me as the kind of town to like Baudet's very "Amsterdam" characteristics Cheesy .
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mvd10
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« Reply #45 on: November 14, 2017, 04:02:39 pm »

He didn't do a VVD-PVV map and I was talking about that, but it would look very similar to those maps anyway. I wish we had a FPTP system only because Josse de Voogd would appear on television more often (with even better maps Cheesy).
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« Reply #46 on: November 18, 2017, 09:27:12 am »

Martin Bosma (PVV) pulled a #LockHerUp and demanded that Interior Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66) be imprisoned for 30 years for treason. As Deputy Mayor and alderwoman in Amsterdam, Ollongren once stated that the "Republic of Amsterdam" should secede in case the PVV tops the poll nationwide.
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« Reply #47 on: November 18, 2017, 09:39:14 am »

Martin Bosma (PVV) pulled a #LockHerUp and demanded that Interior Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66) be imprisoned for 30 years for treason. As Deputy Mayor and alderwoman in Amsterdam, Ollongren once stated that the "Republic of Amsterdam" should secede in case the PVV tops the poll nationwide.

No mention of Baudet asking why dual nationals should hold public office during the first debate? Let's not take away credit where credit is due, he was the first one to hint that Ollongren was part of a fifth column.  
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« Reply #48 on: November 18, 2017, 09:48:22 am »

Martin Bosma (PVV) pulled a #LockHerUp and demanded that Interior Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66) be imprisoned for 30 years for treason. As Deputy Mayor and alderwoman in Amsterdam, Ollongren once stated that the "Republic of Amsterdam" should secede in case the PVV tops the poll nationwide.

No mention of Baudet asking why dual nationals should hold public office during the first debate? Let's not take away credit where credit is due, he was the first one to hint that Ollongren was part of a fifth column.  
It was actually Wilders who started about Ollongren's dual citizenship; Baudet came to his aid in an interruption with additional legalistic arguments. However, neither Wilders nor Baudet suggested Ollongren was part of a fifth column. Wilders: "Nobody says I do not trust Ms. Ollongren, for example. But if we talk about holding dual citizenship, I am consistent" (click). Of course his claim to consistency is untrue, as he did not introduce a motion of no confidence against Marlies Veldhuijsen van Zanten in Rutte-I, but I do not think he or Baudet suggested that Ollongren is part of a fifth column.
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« Reply #49 on: November 18, 2017, 10:03:37 am »

Martin Bosma (PVV) pulled a #LockHerUp and demanded that Interior Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66) be imprisoned for 30 years for treason. As Deputy Mayor and alderwoman in Amsterdam, Ollongren once stated that the "Republic of Amsterdam" should secede in case the PVV tops the poll nationwide.

No mention of Baudet asking why dual nationals should hold public office during the first debate? Let's not take away credit where credit is due, he was the first one to hint that Ollongren was part of a fifth column.  
It was actually Wilders who started about Ollongren's dual citizenship; Baudet came to his aid in an interruption with additional legalistic arguments. However, neither Wilders nor Baudet suggested Ollongren was part of a fifth column. Wilders: "Nobody says I do not trust Ms. Ollongren, for example. But if we talk about holding dual citizenship, I am consistent" (click). Of course his claim to consistency is untrue, as he did not introduce a motion of no confidence against Marlies Veldhuijsen van Zanten in Rutte-I, but I do not think he or Baudet suggested that Ollongren is part of a fifth column.

For the case of Wilders, I am not refferring to him (because we all know who he thinks the fifth column is, and its not Ollegren), but your post over the PVV above  

I'm also refferring to Baudet's question, where he asked if it was acceptable if dual nationals should hold office, hinting at the fact that Ollegren may not have the interests of the Dutch people at heart.

https://soundcloud.com/methetoogopmorgen/de-stemming-van-vullings-en-van-weezel-23

(minute 19 for the full sh**tshow in the debate, 20.20min for his question)

I'm surprised given your previous sensitivities on such an issue this wasn't brought up earlier.  
« Last Edit: November 18, 2017, 11:21:48 am by coloniac »Logged
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