Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[mvd10]

Josse de Voogd on right now. He says we should look closely at the result in Weert as it's the most "average" municipality in the first hour. I don't know about possible local parties in Weert, but since it's Josse de Voogd he's probably right (and Weert is a pretty average Dutch municipality as far as I know).

[DavidB.]

I have a gut feeling  that anything can happen with the referendum, and that we might be surprised...

[Dutch Conservative]

Josse de Voogd on right now. He says we should look closely at the result in Weert as it's the most "average" municipality in the first hour. I don't know about possible local parties in Weert, but since it's Josse de Voogd he's probably right (and Weert is a pretty average Dutch municipality as far as I know).

Lets see if CDA remains the largest party (besides the local party). I'm very curious of the performance of the CDA tonight.

[SunSt0rm]

Me as well. i wouldnt be too suprised that no will win eventually.

My expectation:

- big losses for D66 where GL will win the all the univiersity and big cities
- PVV will dissapoint
- VVD will suprise with a high score and will easily be the strongest national party surpassing CDA

[mvd10]

Meh, I have spoken to a lot of people on university and even they are pretty divided. I know this is an useless anecdote, but these are the kind of people that should turn out en masse against the law. If it is defeated it might be by a weirdo coalition of young GL/D66 voters concerned with privacy and anti-establishment RWP's who don't have faith in the system. I would love to see the referendum map.

[mvd10]

pls dont fail exit poll

[mvd10]

Big SP loss, damn

[SunSt0rm]

Wow suprised by the exit poll in Rotterdam

Big losses for PvdA and SP. The left is punished by the (broken) left-islamic alliance

very dissapointing performance by PVV

Nida gaining votes while Denk is also performing well. Together they get more than 13% of the vote. Much higher than Denk last year

[mvd10]

11 seats for Leefbaar, I think they're pretty happy with this since a lot of people thought they were doomed after the PVV decided to participate (PVV only won 2 seats lol)

[Dutch Conservative]

Wow suprised by the exit poll in Rotterdam

Big losses for PvdA and SP. The left is punished by the (broken) left-islamic alliance

very dissapointing performance by PVV

Nida gaining votes while Denk is also performing well

A good performance by VVD. Im not that surprised about the PVV. Leefbaar has a pretty good record and history. Im worried about Denk.

[mvd10]

[Dutch Conservative]

Who would have thought that 20 years ago: the VVD larger than the PvdA in Rotterdam.

[SunSt0rm]

Too close to call for referendum

Turnout 48%
49% For
48% Against
3% blanco

margin of error 5%

[mvd10]

David was right lol

[DavidB.]

Referendum maps will be beautiful (normal Atlas poster)

[mvd10]

Referendum maps will be beautiful (normal Atlas poster)

Yeah, I wonder who exactly opposed. The young voters who are concerned with privacy and the kind of people who vote against this because they lost faith in the system aren't usually on the same side, it would be an interesting map. I'm happy with this result, I also oppose the law but I recognize a new intelligence service law is necessary because of recent changes regarding communication technology.

[SunSt0rm]

The map will be interesting

My expectation student and big cities together with PVV/SP strongholds will vote against. Rural and suburbs will vote for

[DavidB.]

I guess the civic belt and suburbs will be in favor, cities against; in the south, divide between areas that are doing better (eastern brabant, more in favor) and areas that are doing worse might be visible.

[mvd10]

The map will be interesting

My expectation student and big cities together with PVV/SP strongholds will vote against. Rural and suburbs will vote for

Yeah, the strongest supporters of this law seem to be VVD/CDA/CU/SGP voters which would translate to wealthier suburbs and rural areas voting for this with the rest opposing it.

[SunSt0rm]

Utrecht
GL bigger than D66

GL 25% (+8.1%)
D66 20.6% (-5.8%)
VVD 11.4% (+0.6%)
Denk 6.4%
PvdA 4.3% (-5.8%)
SP 4.3% (-5.2%)
PVV 4.1%

Big losses for PvdA and SP, especially the latter is suprised
I am suprised so far how D66 is able to limit it losses

[mvd10]

Also a very promising result for GL Amsterdam. Another huge SP loss.

[Diouf]

Where would the SP voters likely go? I believe they are normally the most working class party of the less, so is it the PVV entrance, that also hurts them? And who is hurt most by the emergence of DENK and the other parties for non-western immigrants. I'm guessing PvdA primarily?

[mvd10]

2014 (and 2010) results in Weert.

Where would the SP voters likely go? I believe they are normally the most working class party of the less, so is it the PVV entrance, that also hurts them? And who is hurt most by the emergence of DENK and the other parties for non-western immigrants. I'm guessing PvdA primarily?

PvdA is most hurt by this, they traditionally won large majorities with non-western immigrants. I'm not sure where SP voters go to be honest.

Local parties won big in Weert (Weert Lokaal went from 27% to 35%), small losses for CDA and VVD, bigger losses for SP and PvdA.

[SunSt0rm]

Where would the SP voters likely go? I believe they are normally the most working class party of the less, so is it the PVV entrance, that also hurts them? And who is hurt most by the emergence of DENK and the other parties for non-western immigrants. I'm guessing PvdA primarily?

SP is hurted by the GL, PVV and local parties. And PvdA probably to Denk and to BIJ1 in Amsterdam

[SunSt0rm]

Amsterdam, GL bigger than D66

GL 22% (+11.4%)
D66 17 (-9.6%)
VVD 12.4% (+1.3%)
PvdA 11% (-7.2%)
SP 6.8% (-4.3)
PvdD 6.7% (+3.9%)
Denk 5.7%
FvD 4.9%
CDA 2.6% (-0.2%)
Bij1 2.3%

Big losses for D66, disappointed result for FvD