Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

For the case of Wilders, I am not refferring to him (because we all know who he thinks the fifth column is, and its not Ollegren), but your post of the PVV above  

I'm also refferring to Baudet's question, where he asked if it was acceptable if dual nationals should hold office, hinting at the fact that Ollegren may not have the interests of the Dutch people at heart.

https://soundcloud.com/methetoogopmorgen/de-stemming-van-vullings-en-van-weezel-23

(minute 19 for the full sh**tshow in the debate, 20.20min for his question)

I'm surprised given your previous sensitivities on such an issue this wasn't brought up earlier.  

I do not completely understand your post, but I also do not think that by asking that question Baudet suggested that Ollongren does not have the Dutch interest at heart. I do not think he meant that at all. His argument was based on constitutional law. I find this to be a trivial issue, but do not see why it would be illegitimate to discuss it.

This happened after Wilders brought up the subject, by the way.

[Zinneke]

For the case of Wilders, I am not refferring to him (because we all know who he thinks the fifth column is, and its not Ollegren), but your post of the PVV above  

I'm also refferring to Baudet's question, where he asked if it was acceptable if dual nationals should hold office, hinting at the fact that Ollegren may not have the interests of the Dutch people at heart.

https://soundcloud.com/methetoogopmorgen/de-stemming-van-vullings-en-van-weezel-23

(minute 19 for the full sh**tshow in the debate, 20.20min for his question)

I'm surprised given your previous sensitivities on such an issue this wasn't brought up earlier.  

I do not completely understand your post, but I also do not think that by asking that question Baudet suggested that Ollongren does not have the Dutch interest at heart. I do not think he meant that at all. His argument was based on constitutional law. I find this to be a trivial issue, but do not see why it would be illegitimate to discuss it.

This happened after Wilders brought up the subject, by the way.

You are right, it is a pure coincidence that he decided to defend this aspect of Constitutional law.

(Hilariteit)

[DavidB.]

Who said it was coincidence? It appears that you seek to revive your little personal vendetta, for which I have no time, but your argument falls flat.

[Zinneke]

Who said it was coincidence? It appears that you seek to revive your little personal vendetta, for which I have no time, but your argument falls flat.

I only brought Baudet's objection to dual nationals and Ollongren up for the sake of balance. Carry on thinking you are the center of the world though.

[DavidB.]

It was you who started about me, but ok...

[mvd10]

PVV and 50PLUS are going to try to "filibuster" the repeal of the property tax exemption for homeowners who fully paid off their mortgages. Martin van Rooijen (50PLUS, 75 years old) will try to speak for 15 hours while a PVV lawmaker will try to speak for 20 hours. This is highly unusual in Dutch politics. They can't talk about random subjects btw, they have to speak about the property tax exemption (or things closely related to it).

Van Rooijen already has begun. He's currently talking about his period as State Secretary of Finance during Den-Uyl 1 in the 1970s (yes this guy was State Secretary/Deputy Minister in the 1970s and randomly decided to return to politics 40 years later).

[DC Al Fine]

Do you feel better, now that Germany is having trouble forming a government?

[mvd10]

Do you feel better, now that Germany is having trouble forming a government?

Yes. Schadenfreude .

The filibuster didn't work out. The debate ended at 05:00. Van Rooij's performance was quite well-received actually.

Wilders seems to have gone off the deep end. He now calls Russia a potential ally instead of an enemy. Wilders was one of the few European far-right politicians who wasn't openly supportive of Russia (or atleast he did nothing to make us think so), mainly because the MH17 crash. I guess Wilders also didn't need Russian donors because he used to have good ties with some American organizations . But now he will be visiting Moscow soon. Maybe he's doing this to get some of Baudet's voters back? Baudet regularly dabbles in pro-Putin MH17 conspiracy theories.


Internal PVV documents from 2014 showed Wilders already instructed his MP's to refrain from too much Russia-bashing, so this isn't completely new. His Russia trip still looks a lot like a (suspicious) policy U-turn imo.

[DavidB.]

What a mess, lol. All current double-digit parties lose, almost all single-digit parties win.

[mvd10]

PvdAmentum though

[MAINEiac4434]

PvdAmentum though

Northern Europeans always come back to social democrats...

[mvd10]

PvdAmentum though

Northern Europeans always come back to social democrats...

I fully stand by my prediction that the next general election will be a VVD-PvdA horse race.

[MAINEiac4434]

Can't wait for the inevitable PvdA-D66-PVV-PvdD coalition of chaos.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl today. Not tired of winning yet! Also watch the PvdA's recovery.

[mvd10]

PvdA will win 60 seats in 2021 (or probably late 2019 if the coalition wins only 31 seats in the senate). Watch it happen lol.

Anyway, other polls show a slightly different picture for the PvdA (and also for the PVV), but peil is the only one that does weekly polls .

[DavidB.]

Interesting how the pollsters suddenly come up with diverging findings again, unlike right before the election. Really makes you think...

[mvd10]

http://www.weetmeer.nl/buurt/select

I just found this goldmine. It allows you to select neighborhoods in the Netherlands and it basically shows some statistics (income, median house price, demographics) and it also shows how it voted in 2012 (sadly no numbers for 2017 ). I'm not sure how reliable the information is. They base the vote on precincts within the neighborhood, but if there were no precincts in the neighborhood they base it on nearby precincts in other neighborhoods. One extremely wealthy area in Wassenaar that one would expect to vote 65% VVD or so voted 38% VVD in 2012 according to this site (no precincts). Perhaps David knows whether this is reliable? The municipality of Amsterdam always releases the election results by stadsdeel anyway as far as I know.

[Zinneke]

Duindorp's statistics are telling. When will that place become a bohemian district.

[DavidB.]

One extremely wealthy area in Wassenaar that one would expect to vote 65% VVD or so voted 38% VVD in 2012 according to this site (no precincts). Perhaps David knows whether this is reliable? The municipality of Amsterdam always releases the election results by stadsdeel anyway as far as I know.

Thanks for sharing this! I think I can find out. Which area is it? Haven't found out how this works yet.

[mvd10]

One extremely wealthy area in Wassenaar that one would expect to vote 65% VVD or so voted 38% VVD in 2012 according to this site (no precincts). Perhaps David knows whether this is reliable? The municipality of Amsterdam always releases the election results by stadsdeel anyway as far as I know.

Thanks for sharing this! I think I can find out. Which area is it? Haven't found out how this works yet.

Rijksdorp met De Pan. There was no voting booth in that area so they based it on voting booths in other areas. It's extremely wealthy (also was in a Quote list of places with the highest house prices) yet the PVV was more overrepresented there than the VVD, while the VVD usually scores 65-70% in these places. Some things look a bit weird. Aerdenhout-Zuid has a huge median house price, but the average income is much lower than you would expect, it's lower than in other areas in Aerdenhout even though these areas have much lower median house prices (and indeed these other areas are also less notorious ). Then again, Aerdenhout-Zuid is 44% 65+ while other areas in Aerdenhout are closer to the national average in this regard so old people having huge houses and "low" incomes (still double the national average lol) probably explains it.

The numbers for the place where I lived seem right. It definitely is true that the closest high school was criminally far away .

[DavidB.]

As you said, no precincts in Rijksdorp/De Pan, and the closest area in Wassenaar is one of the village's more working-class areas (these exist!) where in one precinct the VVD got 28% and the PVV 22% in 2017, and in another one the VVD received 36% and the PVV came second with 13%. 38% VVD is probably right for these two precincts in 2012. The VVD percentage would probably be lower still without Rijksdorp/De Pan voters voting there. I think we can safely assume that Rijksdorp/De Pan itself is 50%> VVD.

[DavidB.]

Following the rather grave mistakes that were made in the process of coming up with the final result of the GE earlier this year, the government plans on revising the Electoral Law and giving the Central Election Commission more time to publicize the final result. The revised Election Law will also force municipalities to publish election results by precinct, because it would currently be too difficult for voters to track whether any mistakes had been made in the counting process. Great news!

[Angel of Death]

Emile Roemer will step down as leader of the Socialist Party and will be succeeded by Jan Marijnissen's daughter Lilian. Not great optics for a formerly communist party.

[DavidB.]

The Dutch version of The Onion:

Lilian Marijnissen: "I want a Netherlands where your surname isn't decisive for your opportunities in society."

Apparently, Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Sadet Karabulut had also declared herself a candidate, but the parliamentary group decided "in harmony" that Marijnissen would be the best successor...

Not a great decision in my opinion. The problem in the previous campaign -- and during the parliamentary term -- was not Roemer, who actually did a decent job during the debates, but the fact that the party's focus was not broad enough (healthcare, healthcare, healthcare) and, in the view of the public, did not seem to propose any ideas on other issues, even if they do have these ideas. However, this was not Roemer's decision but the real leadership's (Meyer, Janzerdaddy), and under Marijnissen they will doubtlessly continue to do this (whereas Karabulut would have been more of an "intersectional" party leader, not to BIJ1/GL degrees, but she would talk about discrimination etc. as well).

[DavidB.]

The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management today announced that the Netherlands will join Austria in taking Germany to the European Court of Justice over its contentious motorway toll plans. Under the proposed system, Germans will get a full refund for this toll through the motor vehicle tax whereas foreigners have to pay full price. According to the Dutch Infrastructure Ministry, this amounts to discrimination and "goes against the principles of free movement [within the EU]." In total, Dutch motorists are expected to spend 60 to 100 million on tolls in Germany, 40% of which will be paid by individuals and companies in the border area.