Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[mvd10]

I think Roemer was a liability (he definitely had his chance in 2012 and people just don't take him seriously anymore), but replacing him with the daughter of Marijnissen who has been in office for like 8 months after an "internal election" doesn't look great. I somewhat understood the party's strategy of focusing on healthcare as polls showed people thought it was very important and focusing on immigration/integration would be very hard for the SP. A large part of their base probably wouldn't appreciate a vocal left-wing immigration policy while the SP "elite" and a smaller (but not insignificant) part of their base wouldn't accept a tack to the right on immigration.

[DavidB.]

The SP's focus on healthcare is the sort of thing that looks great on paper but just didn't work in reality. I'm not saying they should have spoken out more loudly on immigration and identity issues, but a less "ideologically rigid" and therefore narrow focus on bread and butter stuff would have helped, I think. For instance, a left-wing communitarian approach to identity issues (without actually letting go of their left-wing stances on immigration etc., which they are clearly unwilling to do) could have worked greatly and could actually be one of their strengths. Instead, they chose just to ignore the theme altogether. Roemer not appealing to non-working class people would have remained a problem, which is why replacing him is not a bad idea in itself, but they will not broaden their appeal without a different electoral strategy, and I doubt they understand it.

Meanwhile, I saw that Mark Lievisse Adriaanse, NRC Handelsblad reporter and an SP member himself (at least in the past, a quick Google search shows), wrote an article on Lilian Marijnissen that might as well have been published by the SP... Like you, I am not as convinced. Bad optics, as you said.

[mvd10]

RIP "liberal" NRC. They've truly gone off the deep end .

[DavidB.]

Lmao: in the groupthink world of the SP leadership, the party's problem is that it had become "too elitist, almost like GL". They blame Sharon Gesthuizen, the former MP and rebel who challenged Ron Meyer for the position of chairman and afterwards wrote a book on the culture of fear within the party, because of her plea for a more open/"humane" refugee policy. Roemer also mentioned this more than he probably should have during one of the television debates in the runup to the election.

While I would of course love the SP to take a more restrictive approach on immigration (though it's more likely that they keep their position but stop talking about it), I don't think this was one of their main electoral problems at all (their positions are not even different from those in 2006), and it is frankly delusional and reeks of groupthink to blame it on Gesthuizen -- as if the average voter even knows who she is.

Reporters also found that Lilian Marijnissen knew 1.5 months in advance that Roemer would resign, whereas Karabulut learned this one day in advance. Never change, SP.

[Kamala]

My understanding of Dutch politics is comparatively poor so I'll try not to clog up this thread too much, but would you be kind enough to explain why the Socialist Party is such a joke?

nice

[DavidB.]

My understanding of Dutch politics is comparatively poor so I'll try not to clog up this thread too much, but would you be kind enough to explain why the Socialist Party is such a joke?

Formely Maoist cult/sect with charismatic leader (who is paranoid and likes to keep decisionmaking power within his inner circle, because of course) who is "a man of the people" moderates politically and becomes electorally successful, but remains the same old cult/sect internally. To most voters this doesn't matter in itself, but of course the consequences of this structure lead to poor decisionmaking and turn off talented potential candidates and people with good ideas who happen to be too critical.

[DavidB.]

DENK have decided to stand in the Rotterdam local election. This will mainly hurt NIDA, who won two seats in 2014 and are more explicitly Islamist than DENK. NIDA were unwilling to cooperate with DENK because they considered DENK to be too polarizing and not sufficiently constructive. It will be interesting to see how this affects both parties. "Moroccans to NIDA, Turks to DENK" would be my first guess (NIDA is led by a Moroccan Dutch guy), but if a Moroccan Dutch person will be selected as political leader of DENK Rotterdam this dynamic may be different.

The parallel between DENK and the PVV, who will be standing in Rotterdam to the detriment of Leefbaar, who are more constructive, continues to hold up very well.

[DavidB.]

#tbt: Jan and little Lilian Marijnissen in the GE 1989 campaign.

[mvd10]

My understanding of Dutch politics is comparatively poor so I'll try not to clog up this thread too much, but would you be kind enough to explain why the Socialist Party is such a joke?

The previous chairman election also was a sham, it was painfully obvious that the leadership wanted Meyer to win and was prepared to rig the election. Members really don't have anything to say in the SP (though they actually have members, unlike a certain other party ). The internal leadership election also wasn't really fair as Marijnissen has known about Roemer's resignation for 2 months while Karabulut only knew it a day in advance. The SP also has the tendency to shut down local chapters which aren't "visible on the streets" (which is ironic as this tend to be the SP chapters that are part of municipal coalitons and actually have influence on policy). Replacing Roemer with Marijnissen also is in line with this, Marijnissen had high positions in labour unions so she will be much more of an activist than Roemer (this is what the SP leadership wants).

Jesse Klaver (GL leader) wants to broaden his support base. Currently GL is mainly backed by high-educated Randstad students (thank God I don't study in the Randstad ), but he wants to appeal to lower educated people outside of the Randstad as well (and any left-wing party that wants to win the election needs those people to vote for them). I'm not sure whether this will help them, voting GL probably still is a bridge too far for rural voters who might have centre-left sympathies. Then again, if he manages to unite the GL voters (disproportionally young high-educated urban voters) with the more traditional PvdA base he will be a formidable contender in 2021 (or earlier). But in recent years the PvdA wasn't dominated by those young urban high-educated voters to the degree GL was, VVD actually soundly defeated the PvdA in 2012 among younger voters. So I strongly doubt GL can revive the PvdA 2012 coalition, unless the next elections are completely dominated by economic issues (rural voters tend to swing to the left in these elections) and the PvdA doesn't get it's act together. The GL base and the people Klaver is reaching out to probably are incompatible, unless 2021 is an austerity election or something like that.

In some late-night talk show Klaver also eloquently described how the professor in Amsterdam and the primary school teacher in Drenthe have the same dreams. Indeed, this speech probably deeply impressed the professor in Amsterdam while leaving the primary school teacher in Drenthe thinking "So what?". Then again, primary school teachers are very left-wing, so perhaps this isn't a great example. But you guys probably get the idea.

[DavidB.]

The first scandal with a PVV candidate for the municipal election is in. PVV Rotterdam candidate #1 Géza Hegedüs paid his respects to well-known Shoah denier David Irving. In 2014, he wrote on Irving's Facebook page: "Happy birthday and many more healthy and productive years! You really have my respect!" Would be surprised if he isn't sacked right away, but that the PVV hadn't found out about this in advance is truly unbelievable given all the past scandals.

Edit: There is apparently a podcast by Neonazi group Erkenbrand in which Hegedüs, who is of Hungarian descent, voices his support for Jobbik but decries the party's "moderation" and laments that the party does not talk about Jews and Roma anymore. He also called for the deportation of Surinamese Dutch people. Holy sh**t.

Edit 2: Aaaand he's gone. PVV press statement: 'To our deepest regret, we have taken notice of new information about #1 candidate Geza Hegedüs, which was unbeknownst to us. This information is unacceptable and does not suit a PVV politician. The candidate has immediately been removed from the list. Wilders: "I deeply regret this. Had we known about this beforehand, Mr. Hegedüs would never have been accepted as a candidate on the list. The PVV will announce the next #1 candidate next week."' Leefbaar Rotterdam will be delighted.

[mvd10]

What on earth was the PVV even thinking when they signed up for 60 municipalities? They don't have members (except for Geert Wilders and the Wilders Foundation lol), there are no internal debates and they barely have local infrastructure so how were they going to find hundreds of good potential candidates? Luckily for Wilders FvD won't participate in a lot of municipalities. I wonder what FvD would score if they participated in all municipalities while Wilders stays home. FvD's party structure probably makes it easier to find good candidates for local elections.

[DavidB.]

I wonder what FvD would score if they participated in all municipalities while Wilders stays home. FvD's party structure probably makes it easier to find good candidates for local elections.

FvD would also have suffered from tons of scandals like this one. Most people with Nazi sympathies and ideas like the ones Hegedüs espoused despise the PVV for being Zionist (and funded by Jews), but have no problem with FvD. While FvD are pro-Israel too, evidenced by their voting record in parliament as well as Baudet's social media statements, they have also won the support of a lot of people who are not kosher (see Erkenbrand, who adore him), which is unfortunately related to Baudet's alt-right dogwhistling (e.g. the homeopathic dilution comment, the Russia/MH17 stuff, De Haze Winkelman peddling the Coudenhove-Kalergi conspiracy theory, the memes). These people would love to run for their local councils at the FvD slate and could damage the party immensely.

What on earth was the PVV even thinking when they signed up for 60 municipalities?

Don't think they will end up running in 60 municipalities at all. There would have been more news by now if that were the case.

[MaxQue]

Edit 2: Aaaand he's gone. PVV press statement: 'To our deepest regret, we have taken notice of new information about #1 candidate Geza Hegedüs, which was unbeknownst to us. This information is unacceptable and does not suit a PVV politician.

But it fits a PVV voter?

[mvd10]

I wonder what FvD would score if they participated in all municipalities while Wilders stays home. FvD's party structure probably makes it easier to find good candidates for local elections.

FvD would also have suffered from tons of scandals like this one. Most people with Nazi sympathies and ideas like the ones Hegedüs espoused despise the PVV for being Zionist (and funded by Jews), but have no problem with FvD. While FvD are pro-Israel too, evidenced by their voting record in parliament as well as Baudet's social media statements, they have also won the support of a lot of people who are not kosher (see Erkenbrand, who adore him), which is unfortunately related to Baudet's alt-right dogwhistling (e.g. the homeopathic dilution comment, the Russia/MH17 stuff, De Haze Winkelman peddling the Coudenhove-Kalergi conspiracy theory, the memes). These people would love to run for their local councils at the FvD slate and could damage the party immensely.

What on earth was the PVV even thinking when they signed up for 60 municipalities?

Don't think they will end up running in 60 municipalities at all. There would have been more news by now if that were the case.

Yeah, Erkenbrand also likes Baudet because he is much more of an intellectual than Wilders, they dislike "dumb" skinheads and they demand a "certain level of intellectual capacities" from their members (say the guys who boast about using violence in their discord safe space).

But the FvD actually is an open party which you can join and which organizes a lot of events where members actually cay say things. They obviously can't run in all municipalities in the near future (unless they completely ignore vetting, which would indeed damage their party), but the FvD will have an easier time finding potential politicians because of their relative openness. Meanwhile the PVV is all about Wilders and doesn't have any members and it also doesn't really allow sympathizers to influence the party. It's hard to create a pool of potential politicians if you don't have any members.

[DavidB.]

I don't think anybody should be impressed by the intellectual capacities of the hbo "students" of Erkenbrand who think they are original for "discovering" Spengler (just like far-right manchild Sid Lukkassen, who can weirdly still remain a VVD local council member somewhere on the border with Germany; wonder if he will be deselected?). Though yes, as almost always, I of course agree with your main point.

[DavidB.]

FvD third largest party and bigger than the PVV (though all within MoE) in today's Peil.nl poll.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would parties like VVD and CDA be open to working with FvD?

[DavidB.]

Would parties like VVD and CDA be open to working with FvD?

Perhaps not impossible, but it would be difficult. Baudet's worldview and policy positions (most notably leaving the EU and introducing Switzerland-style direct democracy) are simply rather far away from those of VVD and CDA. His hyperbolic statements, trolling and dogwhistling do not help either.

Of course, the issues with cooperation with the PVV were somewhat similar in 2010, and both VVD and CDA may come around (never underestimate the "flexibility" of the VVD in particular), and a lot may change in the coming years, but for now it seems difficult to me.

A complication for FvD would be that they are very vulnerable to the criticism of selling out to the "party cartel" -- just like they accuse D66 of doing. The PVV never had this problem.

[Kamala]

FvD third largest party and bigger than the PVV (though all within MoE) in today's Peil.nl poll.

Absolutely disgusting.

[Zanas]

FvD third largest party and bigger than the PVV (though all within MoE) in today's Peil.nl poll.

Absolutely disgusting.

I find it hilarious. Seven parties virtually tied for second place : that's classic Dutch polling between elections for you!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Can't wait for PvdD to get double digits.

[mvd10]

I can see VVD and CDA being open to cooperating with FvD if it's absolutely necessary (and like David said, VVD members are very flexible people unless they target our wallets ), but I can't see FvD working with the "party cartel" unless it's at their terms.

FvD third largest party and bigger than the PVV (though all within MoE) in today's Peil.nl poll.

Absolutely disgusting.

I find it hilarious. Seven parties virtually tied for second place : that's classic Dutch polling between elections for you!

Yeah, the Dutch public is rather volatile. At some point before the 2006 elections the PvdA was at 60 seats in the polls, they won 33. In 2010 nobody really expected Rutte to win the elections (it's a wonder he survived 2007/2008, the rest is history), in 2012 the SP collapsed from 35 seats to 15 seats in the polls (and the PvdA went from 15 to 35) and according to the polls in the months before the 2017 election VVD-CDA-D66-GL-PvdA was like the only serious option. And don't forget how many parties led atleast 1 poll in the 2012-2015 period. VVD, PvdA, D66, PVV and SP all led multiple polls at one point during that period (and the CDA won the European elections even though they never led a single poll during that period).

This graph is telling:


Next week the politician of the year will be chosen. Candidates are Jesse Klaver (GL leader), Jeroen Dijsselbloem (former PvdA finance minister), Klaas Dijkhoff (VVD parliamentary leader), Thierry Baudet (FvD leader) and Khadija Arib (Speaker of the House of Representatives). I'm surprised they didn't include Rutte, he won the elections by quite a big margin after all. Meanwhile I don't get why they included Dijsselbloem and Arib who haven't done anyhing noteworthy this year (especially Dijsselbloem surprised me). Baudet probably will win it though.

[Zinneke]

I can see VVD and CDA being open to cooperating with FvD if it's absolutely necessary (and like David said, VVD members are very flexible people unless they target our wallets ), but I can't see FvD working with the "party cartel" unless it's at their terms.

FvD third largest party and bigger than the PVV (though all within MoE) in today's Peil.nl poll.

Absolutely disgusting.

I find it hilarious. Seven parties virtually tied for second place : that's classic Dutch polling between elections for you!

Yeah, the Dutch public is rather volatile. At some point before the 2006 elections the PvdA was at 60 seats in the polls, they won 33. In 2010 nobody really expected Rutte to win the elections (it's a wonder he survived 2007/2008, the rest is history), in 2012 the SP collapsed from 35 seats to 15 seats in the polls (and the PvdA went from 15 to 35) and according to the polls in the months before the 2017 election VVD-CDA-D66-GL-PvdA was like the only serious option. And don't forget how many parties led atleast 1 poll in the 2012-2015 period. VVD, PvdA, D66, PVV and SP all led multiple polls at one point during that period (and the CDA won the European elections even though they never led a single poll during that period).

This graph is telling:


Next week the politician of the year will be chosen. Candidates are Jesse Klaver (GL leader), Jeroen Dijsselbloem (former PvdA finance minister), Klaas Dijkhoff (VVD parliamentary leader), Thierry Baudet (FvD leader) and Khadija Arib (Speaker of the House of Representatives). I'm surprised they didn't include Rutte, he won the elections by quite a big margin after all. Meanwhile I don't get why they included Dijsselbloem and Arib who haven't done anyhing noteworthy this year (especially Dijsselbloem surprised me). Baudet probably will win it though.

It would be superb trolling if he won it and didn't turn up. AFWEZIG!

SP and PVV have proven in the last two elections that your polling numbers mean nothing electorally until the final straight, where people make their coalition preferences known. They were still probably held in a positive regard by those who ended up voting PvdA/VVD-CDA in the respective elections. preferred party =/= who will you vote for if election were held tomorrow.

That said, I don't think people go to provincial elections thinking who they want in government, even though it obviously has an effect with the First Chamber and all. And turnout might be low. So its certainly going to be an interesting election as things stand.

[oddfellowslocal151]

How is Artikel 1 doing?

[mvd10]

How is Artikel 1 doing?

They changed their name into BIJ1 and they will participate in the Amsterdam municipal election. They might just win a seat as they got 2.3% in Amsterdam in the general election (thanks #woke VU students), but I doubt it.