Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era
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  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era  (Read 133898 times)
EPG
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« Reply #200 on: March 04, 2018, 11:53:24 AM »

Erm, perhaps it's a harsh lesson but people absolutely must have the freedom to report about the opinions of others, particularly politicians who seek authority and power over us. It is in fact a foundational freedom (free expression / press).
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Zinneke
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« Reply #201 on: March 04, 2018, 12:27:30 PM »

Erm, perhaps it's a harsh lesson but people absolutely must have the freedom to report about the opinions of others, particularly politicians who seek authority and power over us. It is in fact a foundational freedom (free expression / press).

Quiet, the real scandal here is the D66 infiltrator leaking WhatsApp conversations! After all he's D66!!!
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mvd10
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« Reply #202 on: March 05, 2018, 03:39:48 AM »

Stef Blok (VVD) will be the new Foreign Affairs Minister. No foreign policy experience, but he is the epitome of a safe pair of hands. I hoped for someone with more foreign policy experience, but Blok still is a great choice.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #203 on: March 05, 2018, 07:32:58 AM »

Erm, perhaps it's a harsh lesson but people absolutely must have the freedom to report about the opinions of others, particularly politicians who seek authority and power over us. It is in fact a foundational freedom (free expression / press).
Nobody says otherwise.

Stef Blok (VVD) will be the new Foreign Affairs Minister. No foreign policy experience, but he is the epitome of a safe pair of hands. I hoped for someone with more foreign policy experience, but Blok still is a great choice.
Once again it's not someone with any experience but a confidant of Mark Rutte. Still, I agree that Blok is probably a safe choice.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #204 on: March 08, 2018, 04:54:49 PM »

New poll

Rotterdam


Amsterdam
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DavidB.
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« Reply #205 on: March 10, 2018, 08:16:12 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2018, 10:24:02 AM by DavidB. »

Kantar poll (compared to last poll, which was published on January 31):
VVD 30 (+2)
PVV 16 (-2)
SP 16 (+1)
GL 16 (+1)
CDA 15 (-1)
D66 15 (-2)
FvD 9 (-3)
PvdA 9 (-2)
CU 6 (-)
PvdD 6 (+2)
50Plus 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 2 (-)

Interesting how the polling results for FvD vary: Peil.nl today has them still at 15. I guess the truth lies somewhere in between. Meanwhile, the SP are doing well under their new leader Lilian Marijnissen, and the electoral setback that was expected a few months ago will probably not take place anymore.

Only 56% of the voters know that a referendum will be taking place; this was 86% the same time before the Ukraine referendum. 33% say they will definitely vote. Usually this would indicate that the threshold would only barely be reached, but this time the referendum is organized together with the local elections. This creates a situation similar to that during the water board elections, which take place together with provincial elections: some voters might not vote for the water board because they really don't have a clue, but most will vote anyway. In the end turnout for the referendum should be between 40% and 50%. Turnout for the local elections will be slightly higher than last time: 55% or so.

35% intend to vote for the intelligence law, 24% oppose it, 25% don't know and 15% will not vote. "Yes" leads in all the polls. It now seems that unless there will be a dramatic change in public opinion (there is currently no campaign at all, except for a few posters by the PvdA youth) people will vote in favor of the law by about 60-40, but possibly even a wider margin. The best argument for abolishing the referendum that I've heard so far.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #206 on: March 11, 2018, 09:19:36 AM »

It would be weird if the next election had VVD, SP, and FvD in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #207 on: March 11, 2018, 12:03:40 PM »

except for a few posters by the PvdA youth)

All members under sixty?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #208 on: March 11, 2018, 12:15:54 PM »

All three of them, yes.

The posters are quite good: located above urinals in bars, they say "You wouldn't want the government to watch this, right? You do have something to hide."
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EPG
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« Reply #209 on: March 11, 2018, 03:57:26 PM »

Is there a law that SP has to surge then fall back to PvdA every mid-term?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #210 on: March 11, 2018, 06:29:46 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2018, 06:39:45 PM by DavidB. »

New peil.nl poll has PVV at lowest level since 2008.

Seats (compared to last week):
VVD 25 (-1)
SP 16 (-)
FvD 15 (-)
GL 14 (-)
D66 14 (+1)
CDA 14 (+1)
PVV 13 (-1)
PvdA 12 (-)
PvdD 7 (-)
CU 7 (-)
50Plus 7 (-)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 3 (-)

More interesting: their referendum poll has "yes" only leading by three points: 45/42. 13% are undecided. Peil.nl expect turnout to be between 40% and 45%.

55% think this law will improve security in the Netherlands, 46% think it is an unacceptable violation of privacy (respondents could express agreement with both questions). Based on voting intention in the local election, only VVD, CDA and PvdA (lol) voters would support the law: 67/19, 69/18 and 53/34 respectively. D66 voters in the local election will oppose the intelligence law by 47/44, which probably means that their larger GE17 electorate is even more opposed to it.

Meanwhile, there is commotion about the cooperation agreement between the Left and the Islamic party NIDA in Rotterdam, with national SP leader Lilian Marijnissen today stating that "I would not have made the choice" to cooperate with NIDA. Marijnissen she thinks the SP are ideologically too far away from NIDA: "They want a more prominent place for religion in society, while the SP consider the separation between church and state of great importance." Internally, most of the party appear to oppose SP Rotterdam leader Leo de Kleijn's decision to strike this agreement; De Kleijn even stated that he didn't particularly care for which of the four parties people would vote. Things got worse when this old NIDA tweet went viral this evening (see the picture):

... which was immediately disavowed by PvdA Rotterdam leader Barbara Kathmann. I don't think GL, SP and PvdA quite understood what they were doing when they signed their agreement with NIDA.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #211 on: March 12, 2018, 12:08:45 PM »

The Left-Islamic alliance was disbanded by PvdA and GL following NIDA's refusal to denounce their 2014 tweet after 2.5 hours of crisis negotiations. The national PvdA and GL party organizations apparently pressured their local branches into doing so, as GL Rotterdam leader Judith Bokhove had first been unwilling to end cooperation with NIDA when Klaver had already stated that NIDA had to retract their statement. It is unclear whether the alliance between PvdA, GL and SP will still continue to exist. This incident might also have ramifications for the coalition formation process.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #212 on: March 16, 2018, 01:23:59 PM »

Polls show a big generation gap on the referendum law. Support for the law by age group according to the latest I&O poll:
18-34: 44% opposed, 34% in favor, 22% undecided
35-49: 45% in favor, 29% opposed, 26% undecided
50-64: 55/28 in favor with 17% undecided
65+: 63/21 with 16% undecided.
In total: 51/30 in favor with 19% undecided.

The youth organizations of government parties VVD, D66 and CU oppose the law too (but the CDA youth support it).
---

Meanwhile, the PvdD are introducing a new initiative law to ban Jewish and Muslim ritual slaughter. The difference with the previous initiative will be that a five-year "transition period" is part of the plan. The previous initiative passed in pariament with support of all non-confessional parties, but was soundly defeated in the Senate, where VVD, PvdA and D66 decided to oppose the initiative in addition to the confessional parties. CDA, SGP, CU and DENK will definitely oppose the new PvdD initiative, PVV and PvdD will definitely support it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #213 on: March 16, 2018, 02:25:54 PM »


Meanwhile, the PvdD are introducing a new initiative law to ban Jewish and Muslim ritual slaughter. The difference with the previous initiative will be that a five-year "transition period" is part of the plan. The previous initiative passed in pariament with support of all non-confessional parties, but was soundly defeated in the Senate, where VVD, PvdA and D66 decided to oppose the initiative in addition to the confessional parties. CDA, SGP, CU and DENK will definitely oppose the new PvdD initiative, PVV and PvdD will definitely support it.

This is why I love Dutch politics: the tiny parties that would meet enter parliament elsewhere, and the bizarre alliances formed to pass/defeat legislation. Smiley
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DavidB.
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« Reply #214 on: March 17, 2018, 09:36:55 AM »

Most recent Rotterdam poll. Leefbaar up from 9 to 11, PVV down from 3 to 1 -- completely deserved. The only remotely realistic coalition based on these numbers is GL-SP-VVD-D66-PvdA, maybe with the CDA as well. A complete monstrosity, and suicide for the VVD. Negotiations are going to be terrible.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #215 on: March 18, 2018, 11:30:52 AM »
« Edited: March 18, 2018, 11:46:42 AM by DavidB. »

A local government department in Amsterdam of which I had never heard, OIS, conducted a poll. Quite brutal for D66 and PvdA. Good poll for the right: it would mean that the (leftish) VVD Amsterdam attract quite some D66 voters to compensate for the loss of voters to FvD.

Former party leader Frits Bolkestein criticized Amsterdam VVD leader Eric van den Burg for being too left-wing this weekend, saying that he would vote for the #5 on the list, Hala Naoum Nehmé.

As for D66, GL Amsterdam leader Rutger Groot Wassink said it best: "It did not even take them four years to become the same arrogant lunatics as the PvdA were in the sixty years before."



Bonus content: this absolutely brutal "Spot the differences" ad by the SP Amsterdam, attacking GL for supposedly being exactly like D66, symbolized by the cargo bike, the ultimate symbol of bougie white highly educated "progressive" vegan gentrifying Amsterdam -- the people who will now turn from D66 to GL. "Make a real difference. Vote SP Amsterdam."
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Harlow
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« Reply #216 on: March 18, 2018, 12:47:55 PM »

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?
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jeron
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« Reply #217 on: March 18, 2018, 01:19:08 PM »

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?

If something looks like a tomato it usually is a tomato. The SP has been using the tomato as a symbol for years.
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jeron
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« Reply #218 on: March 18, 2018, 01:26:02 PM »

A local government department in Amsterdam of which I had never heard, OIS, conducted a poll. Quite brutal for D66 and PvdA. Good poll for the right: it would mean that the (leftish) VVD Amsterdam attract quite some D66 voters to compensate for the loss of voters to FvD.

Former party leader Frits Bolkestein criticized Amsterdam VVD leader Eric van den Burg for being too left-wing this weekend, saying that he would vote for the #5 on the list, Hala Naoum Nehmé.

As for D66, GL Amsterdam leader Rutger Groot Wassink said it best: "It did not even take them four years to become the same arrogant lunatics as the PvdA were in the sixty years before."



Bonus content: this absolutely brutal "Spot the differences" ad by the SP Amsterdam, attacking GL for supposedly being exactly like D66, symbolized by the cargo bike, the ultimate symbol of bougie white highly educated "progressive" vegan gentrifying Amsterdam -- the people who will now turn from D66 to GL. "Make a real difference. Vote SP Amsterdam."


This probably means that there will be a GL-D66-VVD coalition, with an outside chance for PvdA. SP would be out of the coalition
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jeron
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« Reply #219 on: March 18, 2018, 01:37:30 PM »

Most recent Rotterdam poll. Leefbaar up from 9 to 11, PVV down from 3 to 1 -- completely deserved. The only remotely realistic coalition based on these numbers is GL-SP-VVD-D66-PvdA, maybe with the CDA as well. A complete monstrosity, and suicide for the VVD. Negotiations are going to be terrible.


There was a coalition of LR-D66-CDA and it could continue by adding VVD. That will not be easy either, but is seems better than a 5 or 6 party coalition. It is clear that we desperately need some kind of electoral threshold
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DavidB.
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« Reply #220 on: March 18, 2018, 01:53:50 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2018, 02:04:34 PM by DavidB. »

I agree that both would be options, but still negotiations would be difficult in both cases. In Amsterdam, GL have campaigned for a radically different way of doing things. They would lose credibility (also nationally!) if they enter a coalition with two parties, D66 and the VVD, that were not only part of the previous (current) coalition, but are also the epitome of the type of neoliberalism GL claim to oppose. Jesse Klaver probably won't be too pleased if they do this. But with one more seat, GL-PvdA-D66 is possible. That would definitely be an option all three parties could live with.

In Rotterdam, D66 have a markedly more left-wing profile this time (which is not only pre-election window dressing, but is also expressed in terms of candidates) and internally they are a mess. First they opposed renewed cooperation with LR as long as they do not renounce their alliance with FvD, which LR of course won't do, but now D66 leader Said Kasmi rules out cooperation altogether. Entering a coalition with LR, VVD and CDA will therefore be really difficult for D66, though I also think it could happen, especially if the (former) Left Alliance don't have a majority together with D66 and PvdD.
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Harlow
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« Reply #221 on: March 18, 2018, 02:38:39 PM »

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?

If something looks like a tomato it usually is a tomato. The SP has been using the tomato as a symbol for years.

Sure, but why?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #222 on: March 18, 2018, 03:23:25 PM »

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?

If something looks like a tomato it usually is a tomato. The SP has been using the tomato as a symbol for years.
Sure, but why?
Both because tomatoes are red and because throwing tomatoes is a sign of protest. Back in the days, the SP were even more of a protest party than now, and they used the slogan "vote against, vote SP". At the same time, tomatoes are also healthy.

Peil.nl poll today, including voter movements. I'm a bit skeptical about that latter part but I am posting it anyway. "Van" means "from", "naar" means "to", "weet niet" means "don't know".
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Zinneke
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« Reply #223 on: March 18, 2018, 03:23:41 PM »

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?


If something looks like a tomato it usually is a tomato. The SP has been using the tomato as a symbol for years.

Sure, but why?


I have a theory that it's because the (useless) logo-shaped sponges they give out fit in the kitchen context.

I think though that the ball is supposed to symbolise the world and the white star on red background is the next best thing to the hammer and sickle, which obviously has negative connotations. Their sister party in Belgium PVDA/PTB also have the white star on red. And I'm pretty sure some other radical left parties in Europe that don't want to be associated with the USSR have it.

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mvd10
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« Reply #224 on: March 19, 2018, 04:27:23 PM »

The results of the VVD commission who researched controversial MP van Haga's business dealings as landlord will be published after the elections. Who would have thought lol.

Lately there also has been a lot of commotion regarding the proposed increased salary for ING Group CEO Ralph Hamers (from 2 million euros to 3 million euros). ING cancelled this after a lot of public outrage. Klaver even wants to regulate the compensation of CEOs of systemically important banks, but VVD parliamentary leader Dijkhoff already said he wouldn't support that law. Instead he wants the law to only cover banks who still are living off taxpayer money (which seems sensible to me).

Personally I oppose government intervention in these cases and some of the arguments of the ING made some sense, but I really wonder wtf the people at ING thought. Did they really think this would go over well? I also doubt whether Hamers would have left his position as CEO of a huge systemically important bank for some overpaid third-tier position at Goldman Sachs where he'd be like 350th in charge, only because 2 million a year wasn't enough. They lost a lot of customers and left-wing politicians already are angling for a law that would regulate these things in the future. Good job ING Smiley.

Former VVD leader Bolkestein said Rutte should succeed Tusk as President of the European Council in 2019. Rutte would be a great choice, but Rutte said he would remain PM the full term. Of course he can't say that he wants to be President of the European Council almost 20 months in advance, so a denial at this stage doesn't mean much.
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