Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

There really isn't much happening in the Netherlands, it's not that I'm being lazy only posting polls. I suppose it's the calm before the election storm. Here's another poll for the Senate, from I&O. It's very similar to the one by Ipsos.

Party (compared to now; number of seats in Ipsos poll)
VVD 11 (-2, 12)
GroenLinks 10 (+6, 9)
PVV 8 (-1, 8 )
FVD 8 (+8, 8 )
CDA 7 (-5, 7)
SP 7 (-2, 5)
D66 6 (-4, 6)
PvdA 5 (-3, 5)
CU 4 (+1, 4)
PvdD 3 (+1, 3)
50Plus 3 (+1, 3)
SGP 2 (-, 2)
DENK 1 (+1, 1)
OSF 0 (-1, 2)

Coalition 28 seats (-10) out of 75

63% disapprove of the government, 33% approve, down from 59/37 last month and an all-time low for this government. 85% of VVD voters approve of the government, compared to 61% of D66 voters, 57% of CDA voters and 52% of CU voters. Approval of the government dropped by 13 points among CU and CDA voters and by 12 points among D66 voters since January.

Seat poll for parliament (compared to GE17):

VVD 23 (-10)
GL 20 (+6)
PVV 17 (-3)
FVD 16 (+14)
SP 14 (-)
CDA 12 (-7)
D66 11 (-8)
PvdA 10 (+1)
CU 7 (+2)
PvdD 7 (+2)
50Plus 6 (+2)
SGP 4 (+1)
DENK 3 (-)

Coalition 53 seats (-23) out of 150.

Important issues for party choice for parliament (multiple options possible, compared to February 2017):

"Norms and values": 42% (-)
Healthcare: 40% (-14% )
Sustainability, climate, environment: 36% (+10%)
Social security, anti-poverty policy: 36% (-6%)
Income policy: 33% (+3%)
Immigration and asylum: 32% (-3%)
The economy and state finances: 30% (+1%)
Safety: 29% (-5%)
Education: 28% (-2%)
European Union: 27% (-)
Employment opportunities: 26% (-7%)
Relations between native Dutch and immigrants: 23% (-5%)
Energy: 23% (+7%)
Participation and democracy: 23% (+5%)
Ethical (US: "social") issues (euthanasia, homosexuality etc.): 22% (+4%)
"Livability" (atmosphere, security etc.) in the neighborhoods: 20% (-)
Housing market, rental market: 18% (+4%)
Terror threat: 17% (-3%)
Traffic and public transportation: 15% (+5%)
Animal welfare: 12% (+3%)
Religious affairs: 11% (-1%)
Arts and culture: 8% (-)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Are there any serious differences in terms of political program between PVV and FvD which potentially might be problems in their future cooperation?

[DavidB.]

Are there any serious differences in terms of political program between PVV and FvD which potentially might be problems in their future cooperation?

Cooperation between PVV and FVD, you mean? Both explicitly say they would like to cooperate with each other. There are differences on the details but they aren't important and would certainly not form a stumbling block. The PVV resent FVD's existence and aren't too friendly to FVD (with an occasional direct line of attack on how FVD are too moderate), FVD view PVV pretty positively. When push comes to shove, however, the two would eagerly cooperate.

The big issue with right-wing cooperation lies in the gap between VVD/CDA on the one hand and FVD/PVV on the other hand. But I wouldn't exclude VVD-CDA-FVD yet. Such cooperation, however, would require a) FVD to usurp more of the PVV vote in order for these parties to come close to 76 seats (given that VVD-CDA cooperation with the PVV is much more difficult) and b) for the right-wing parties not to lose too many seats to the left.

Especially a) is currently an issue (amazingly the total of VVD-CDA-PVV-FVD isn't far down from GE17 even though we have an unpopular government carrying out a right-wing economic agenda), so VVD-CDA-FVD is probably not yet possible following the fall of this government.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Are there any serious differences in terms of political program between PVV and FvD which potentially might be problems in their future cooperation?

Cooperation between PVV and FVD, you mean? Both explicitly say they would like to cooperate with each other. There are differences on the details but they aren't important and would certainly not form a stumbling block.

Yeah, but I wonder what such differences are. As far as I noticed FvD is mainly vocal about cultural issues, Nexit, immigration but are there any particular differences? Maybe PVV highlight some issues more frequently? As far as I remember PVV was strong in post-industrial areas, maybe some economic issues?

[DavidB.]

Yeah, but I wonder what such differences are. As far as I noticed FvD is mainly vocal about cultural issues, Nexit, immigration but are there any particular differences? Maybe PVV highlight some issues more frequently? As far as I remember PVV was strong in post-industrial areas, maybe some economic issues?

In terms of worldview I would say Wilders is still fundamentally a liberal who thinks Dutch liberalism is endangered by mass immigration and the perceived suicidal behavior of foolish elites, whereas Baudet is a reactionary who thinks mass immigration, European integration and all sorts of other developments (secularization, individualization, neoliberalism) are all consequences of the West losing its understanding of its own roots and identity - for an important part due to the trauma of WW2/Auschwitz.

But in terms of actual policies Baudet is also rather liberal on issues such as euthanasia (while strongly rejecting the "fads" such as gender neutral toilets). Wilders tends to use more socio-economically left-wing rhetoric than Baudet and Baudet is certainly more of a small-government guy than Wilders (focusing on small and medium-sized businesses more than on pensioners), but their voting behavior isn't very different. Voters are more likely to view Wilders as someone who is economically left-wing (which isn't really true) while viewing Baudet as economically right-wing.

The one area on which Wilders tries to taunt Baudet is Islam: Baudet does not support a ban on mosques, the Quran etc. and will be more inclined to talk about "political Islam" than about Islam as a whole. All for the optics: I don't think Baudet really thinks about Islam differently than Wilders, but it's not worth losing voters over by coming across as too radical. Wilders tends to introduce motions with a fairly factual headline and inflammatory content, then FVD vote against this motion along with all the other parties except for the PVV. Then Wilders takes a screenshot of the result and the way parties voted to depict Baudet in a negative light.

FVD's difficulty with their Nexit standpoint, on which they seem to have shifted from "Nexit now" to "we want a referendum, but in the meantime we're in the EU and we need to be realistic so we need to try and reform it", is also used by Wilders to create the impression that FVD are really quite squishy and just as much part of the "party cartel" (a term used a lot by Baudet) as the other parties.

Their style is obviously very different, which means they attract more people separately than the PVV did by itself. Baudet comes off as a posh boy from Amsterdam, Wilders as an ordinary man with (at least to a non-Southerner) a very noticeable and distinct Limburg accent - setting him apart from the elites. The difference between the demographics they attract is not too big, but in the 2017 GE FVD did best in the West and Limburg (including in middle-class areas), whereas the PVV has much higher peaks in deprived lower-middle class and working-class areas in the West and in the periphery while not doing as well in areas that are more well-off. There were affluent areas in Amsterdam where the FVD vote in 2017 was almost at the same level as the PVV vote... I do think the correlation between the PVV and FVD vote will be stronger this time, but FVD should still do clearly better (relatively) in non-deprived areas. If they are both at roughly the same amount of electoral support, the map FVD bigger vs. PVV bigger will probably be mixed but with a noticeable center vs. periphery pattern.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Thanks for your answer, you confirmed my presumptions about differences between those parties.

[DavidB.]

On February 15, the government secretly decided to take a share of 14% in Air France-KLM, the same percentage that the French have. The French were quite angry because they had not been informed by the Dutch government. Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra (CDA) went to Paris and a joint press conference with French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire took place, in which Hoekstra handily avoided answering tough questions in his best French. Hoekstra and Le Maire created the impression that the French-Dutch relations were fine again, resulting in a 3% increase of Air France-KLM stocks. But behind the scenes, the French are probably still not too happy. The Dutch press, on the other hand, was absolutely jubilant about Hoekstra's dealing with this affair. He will probably be the most popular minister after this incident: there is no love lost for the French here. Hoekstra is definitely the frontrunner for the CDA leadership race should Buma resign, and he'd be a serious contender for the Prime Ministership if Rutte leaves for Brussels and the coalition collapses.

[DavidB.]

Peil today (compared to last week):

VVD 23 (+1)
GL 18 (-)
FVD 17 (-1)
PVV 17 (-1)
PvdA 14 (-)
SP 12 (-)
CDA 10 (+1)
D66 9 (-)
PvdD 8 (-)
DENK 7 (-)
CU 7 (-)
50Plus 5 (-)
SGP 3 (-)

Coalition 49 (+2)

63% are positive about the Air France-KLM intervention, 14% oppose it.

46% want Schiphol Airport to grow, 34% want to keep it at its current level, 13% want the maximum number of flights to decrease, 3% want to gradually phase out flights at Schiphol to 0.

The term "vliegschaamte" ("being ashamed of flying" because of the environmental impact) has entered the discourse in the liberal newspapers. 68% of people who sometimes fly don't feel ashamed to fly, 21% feel a little ashamed, 10% do feel quite ashamed. The partisan breakdown on this should be clear.

As for healthcare, 27% want the current market system with a lot of freedom to choose and a lot of competition, 52% want less competition and accept less freedom to choose, 11% don't have a preference.

[DavidB.]

On Thursday evening, RTL's election debate took place, with the leaders of the eight best-polling parties (VVD, PVV, GL, FVD, D66, CDA, SP, PvdA) as participants - except for the fact that the VVD sent parliamentary group leader Klaas Dijkhoff instead of PM Rutte, who is portrayed as the statesman who is "above" debates like these. The provinces were barely mentioned: this election has clearly evolved into a midterm, completely focused on the Senate. The four themes discussed were climate policy, budget cuts in the public sector, immigration, and Dutch traditions; every round involved four candidates. Every participant had one opportunity to directly confront another leader one-on-one. Apparently Dijkhoff was crowned the winner by 20% (Klaver got 19%, Baudet came third), but in reality I don't think there was a clear winner or loser, as supporters of every party could find something good in their candidate's performance. Purely based on debating performance I think GL's Jesse Klaver should have won it. Lodewijk Asscher (PvdA) was the least impressive candidate and should really be on his way out after the election. Unfortunately for the PvdA, their bench isn't deep anymore...

Wilders and Baudet were never in the same round, and one of the most important consequences of Baudet's breakthrough is that the right-wing populist message is amplified greatly in the public debate: there was no debate that did not involve either Wilders or Baudet, except for some of the one-on-ones. Baudet was predictably attacked on climate policy and Nexit (on which Henk Otten and Baudet still seem to deliver different messages...), but some people's expectations that he would bomb definitely did not come true.

[DavidB.]

Peil poll: VVD 23, FVD 19 (+2), GL 18, PVV 15 (-2), PvdA 13 (-1), SP 11 (-1), CDA 9 (-1), D66 9, PvdD 8, DENK 7, CU 7, 50Plus 5, SGP 3, Combined local parties 3 (+3, there is no such list and I believe it when I see it).

26% think Dijkhoff won the debate, 18% think Baudet did, which puts him in second place. Baudet attracted PVV voters in the debate: only 59% of (current) PVV voters thought Wilders won it, 21% said Baudet did.

Wopke Hoekstra is now the most popular minister, and Wilders and Baudet's popularity is increasing among the general public: compared to other parliamentary group leaders they are ahead of Krol, Van der Staaij, Jetten (!) and Kuzu.

[DavidB.]

Some LOL pictures from Friday's Women's March in Amsterdam here.

[DavidB.]

Ipsos poll for Senate compared to last poll:
VVD 13 (+1), PVV 9 (+1), FVD 8, GL 8 (-1), CDA 7, PvdA 6 (+1), D66 5 (-1), SP 5, PvdD 4 (+1), CU 3 (-1), 50Plus 3, SGP 2, Independent Senate Group 2, DENK 0 (-1). 51% have made up their minds for the Provincial elections.

Peil poll for the Provincial States in Noord-Holland, compared to now:
VVD 9 (-2)
GL 8 (+4)
FVD 7 (+7)
PVV 5 (-1)
PvdA 5 (-2)
SP 4 (-2)
D66 4 (-6)
CDA 3 (-2)
PvdD 3 (nc)
50Plus 2 (+1)
DENK 2 (+2)
Others 2 (+1)
CU-SGP 1 (nc)

[DavidB.]

I&O for Senate, compared to February 28th:

VVD 12 (+1)
FVD 9 (+1)
GL 9 (-1)
CDA 8 (+1)
PVV 7 (-1)
SP 7 (nc)
D66 5 (-1)
PvdA 5 (-1)
CU 3 (-1)
50Plus 3 (nc)
PvdD 2 (-1)
SGP 2 (nc)
Independent Senate Group 2 (nc)
DENK 1 (nc)

For parliament (compared to February 28th):

VVD 24 (+1)
FVD 18 (+2)
GL 18 (-2)
CDA 15 (+3)
PVV 15 (-2)
SP 15 (+1)
D66 11 (nc)
PvdA 10 (nc)
CU 8 (+1)
PvdD 5 (-2)
50Plus 5 (-1)
SGP 3 (-1)
DENK 3 (nc)

Interesting uptick in CDA support, not sure where that comes from. FVD are attracting lots of PVV voters now. The PVV, as always in campaign season, are invisible, largely because they have no real local organizational power whatsoever. Wilders just hands out leaflets in his strongholds Spijkenisse, Heerlen, Enschede and Volendam, and that's it. FVD leader Baudet, meanwhile, is talking to audiences in theaters and concert halls filled to the brim all across the country every evening. FVD have a big social media presence too.

[DavidB.]

Last Peil.nl poll for the election on Wednesday:

VVD 22 (-1)
FVD 20 (+1)
GL 17 (-1)
PVV 15
PvdA 12 (-1)
SP 12 (+1)
D66 11 (+2)
CDA 10 (+1)
PvdD 7 (-1)
DENK 7
CU 7
50Plus 5
SGP 3
Others 2

A few days ago, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) publicized its analysis of the results of the government's climate policy. It assessed that the Netherlands will "probably not" reach the target of a 49% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to 1990. The PBL also found that lower and middle income groups would carry most of the burden of the climate transition, whereas businesses and higher incomes would be less affected. They proposed the implementation of a carbon tax, a longstanding wish among the left-wing parties.

In response to the PBL's assessment, the government promised to shift the household/business balance from 70-30 to 50-50 and announced that a carbon tax would be implemented. It also opened the door to negotiations with GL and PvdA with regard to the measures that will be taken in order to ensure that the target is reached. The left-wing opposition thinks this agreement does not do "climate justice" because the burden isn't carried equally, whereas the right-wing opposition parties FVD and PVV have railed against Rutte saying the VVD are now literally implementing GL climate policy. All in all hardly good news for the VVD both from a policy and a political point of view. But they will still top the poll on Wednesday anyway.

[TheSaint250]

I&O just released a poll in which FVD keep gaining, but it's not post-Utrecht, so take it with an additional grain of salt...

Compared to last poll: VVD 11 (-1), FVD 10 (+1), GL 9, CDA 8, PVV 7, PvdA 6 (+1), SP 6 (-1), D66 5, CU 4 (+1), PvdD 3 (+1), 50Plus 2 (-1), Independent Senate Group 2, SGP 1 (-1), DENK 1

Why is OSG running in the House of Representatives? I would assume from the name that they are a Senate-only party

[DavidB.]

Why is OSG running in the House of Representatives? I would assume from the name that they are a Senate-only party

This is a Senate poll.

[TheSaint250]

Why is OSG running in the House of Representatives? I would assume from the name that they are a Senate-only party

This is a Senate poll.

Oops, sorry

Also, are there any polls available for the provincial elections?

[DavidB.]

Also, are there any polls available for the provincial elections?

Peil had one for NH. But no others have done it.

Ipsos have decided not to publish their final poll because it was pre-Utrecht. Peil will still do one (just received an invitation link to their survey) and we may or may not be getting something from Kantar.

[DavidB.]

A final debate with all party leaders took place, which I didn't watch except for Rutte's Rick Perry moment: he was summing up some things and then forgot one item, upon which he fell silent for some seconds and then said: "Caroline?" Apparently Rutte's personal assistant is named Caroline and the party leaders are allowed to have in-ear connection with them, which I never even knew. Of course "Caroline" is trending topic right now.

Embarrassing and not a good way for the VVD to end the campaign, although I empathize with Rutte because he must have had two incredibly tough days, regardless of what you think of his performance as a PM.

[DavidB.]

Turnout at 10:30 was 7%, like last time in 2015. Final turnout was 48% back then.

Voted before work already, for myself and a friend. FVD +2 for the provincial/Senate election, Integer Liberaal +2 for the water boards.

[DavidB.]

Turnout definitely doesn't seem to be up at least for now. 18% right now in The Hague, 20% in Utrecht, 16.1% in Rotterdam, 19.8% in Groningen, 19.4% in Purmerend, 18.2% in Eindhoven.

At 1:45 PM, turnout was 18% - like in 2015.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl prognosis by province here. FVD would be the largest party. Would be amazing but I am reluctant. They probably overestimate FVD.

In this prognosis, FVD would be the largest party in Limburg, Noord-Brabant, Zuid-Holland, Flevoland and share the first place in Overijssel (with CDA) and Noord-Holland (with VVD).

In any case, this will be the best result for the populist right to date in the Netherlands; better than GE 2002, EP 2009 or GE 2010. Probably in the 20%-25% range.

[DavidB.]

Turnout was 26% at 3:45, up from 24% in 2015.

[DavidB.]

At 5:45, turnout was 33%. 2% up from 2015 (final turnout 48%) but 2% down from 2011 (final turnout 56%).

[Tender_Branson]

At 5:45, turnout was 33%. 2% up from 2015 (final turnout 48%) but 2% down from 2011 (final turnout 56%).

Regional elections like those usually always have much lower turnout than the GE, where Holland had 82% recently, if I remember correctly.