Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[mvd10]

RIP D66

I also used to think that, but polls show us that D66 voters are actually happy with the coalition agreement (strong focus on climate issues, on which D66 and CU agree). Meanwhile VVD (and to a lesser extent CDA) voters aren't terrible happy with some of the measures like the repeal of the property tax exemption (probably will hurt CDA voters the most) and reducing the mortgage interest deduction for high incomes (will hurt VVD voters the most).

The Zijlstra-Kaag combination at Foreign Affairs will be interesting. Zijlstra is one of the most right-wing VVD politicians and he called the Iran deal a historical mistake in 2015 (he'll definitely be more diplomatic as Foreign Minister though) while Kaag once called Netanyahu a racist and a demagogue, and she also is quite left-wing on asylum issues. They could definitely help each other (Zijlstra has political experience which Kaag lacks, while Kaag has a lot of experience regarding foreign affairs) but there definitely will be some fights.

I'm also interested in Wopke Hoekstra's future. He is the Finance Minister and he still is really young (42). This probably will be Rutte's last term, unless the cabinet falls in 2018/2019 or Rutte decides to go for another term, which both are very possible. But if Rutte decides to retire Hoekstra could be a formidable PM candidate for the CDA, especially since Finance Ministers in the Netherlands usually are very popular. Snd the VVD will either run the charismatic but inexperienced Dijkhoff or the divisive Zijlstra. Buma has to step aside for this to happen, but if this is successful he would go down as the man who did the impossible and made the CDA great again. Hugo de Jonge also could be an alternative to Hoekstra (and they nominated him as Deputy PM), but the Finance Minister always has a lot of prestige while Deputy PM is a pretty meaningless title as long as the PM is around.

[mvd10]

Wait Kaag is married to a Fatah politician?

Yeah. He was shadow Deputy Minister in a Palestinian government or something like that. This combined with her comments about Netanyahu (who she apparently called a racist and demagogue, but to be fair she only cited Israeli demonstrants) and her having a portrait of Arafat in her chamber already made some right-wing sites start a campaign against her. After anti-Zwarte Piet activist Sylvana Simons and far-left Green activist Anne-Fleur Dekker she probably will the the third victim of sexist attacks by De Dagelijkse Standaard (everyone's favorite right-wing site ran by Ayn Rand-loving male students). I'm not really happy with her appointment either, but it doesn't really matter as she's only the Development Aid Minister while Halbe Zijlstra (who is quite literally the opposite of Kaag in every single aspect) will be the actual Foreign Affairs Minister.

[mvd10]

CDA leader Buma said the government would ignore the intelligence services referendum result because the referendum law will be abolished anyway (God, I hate that man). D66 isn't happy about this.

[mvd10]

Meanwhile, PVV -> FvD voter movement continues. Wilders' party is now at a five-year low.

My reaction to this:

I wouldn't be too happy. After the elections PVV and FvD had just 21 seats. Now they have 28 seats, and Baudet's party probably has a higher ceiling than the PVV (but the refugee crisis already showed that the PVV has a very high ceiling).

[mvd10]

There are some economists who support this, but it's mainly support by fiscalists (which is an entirely different field to be fair). Theoretically the dividend tax is a terrible tax that should be eliminated (my opinion), but a lot of foreign taxpayers can get a rebate on this tax from their own government so net it doesn't really make a difference for them (while it would save the foreign governments a lot of money in rebates, but that doesn't do anything to help the Dutch economy). With Rutte I wouldn't be surprised if he did this to satisfy Merkel, Macron and Trump lol (basically a form of foreign aid to rich countries).

I'd prefer a further corporate tax cut (or perhaps a deduction for equity to reduce the debt bias in the corporate tax, like the Belgian ACE). Anyway, most tax measures designed to help the economy are "guesses", so that doesn't necessarily make it a bad thing . But just reducing the corporate tax rate seems like a safer bet to attract foreign investors if that is want the government wants (and it could be combined with getting rid of some of the more outrageous Dutch tax loopholes for multinationals).

Anyway, the CPB also calculated that the GL-SP-PvdA proposals would help the economy in the short term (higher demand), but it would actually reduce employment in the long term (because of higher tax rates). Doesn't seem like a good approach for a booming economy to me (not that the government is any better, they're literally going to splurge 2% of GDP during a boom period with low unemployment in a country known for very volatile boom and bust cycles).

The CPB model isn't perfect by the way. They're good at what they do, but because of austerity they don't have the resources to look at the effects of corporate taxes, taxes on capital or investments in R&D or education anymore. They currently only model the effects of taxes and/or welfare spending on the labour supply and short-term GDP growth. D66 even threatened to boycot the traditional CPB calculation of the party platforms because of this.

[mvd10]

There are commies outside of Groningen ? GL and SP aren't represented in their municipal council, perhaps the commies are in because GL and SP didn't run? Heiloo also isn't that left-wing, the VVD got 35% in 2012 and 30% in 2017. The VVD vote isn't really a good measure for determining how right-wing a municipality is though. There are a lot of religious municipalities where the VVD barely gets 15-20% and there are some big cities where the VVD scores only slightly below their national average but where the overall right is very weak (damn I went offtopic).

I agree that the dividend tax cut probably isn't the best idea btw, theoretically it might be a good idea (according to me atleast, and I'm not really an authority on this lol) but at second glance it looks a lot like subsidizing foreign governments. They probably didn't really think this out.

[mvd10]

Are the tax changes final or could the senate scuttle them?  I would think raising the VAT would be politically risky but it does seem in continental Europe unlike the English speaking world have a strongly progressive tax system is less of an issue.  Otherwise raising regressive taxes and cutting progressive ones doesn't seem to get the same backlash.  Now from an economic stand point, I think what they are doing is a good idea, just not sure if it will sell well although perhaps maybe Netherlands is more fiscally conservative than here in Canada where the soak the rich idea is in vogue right now.

I think the repeal of the dividend tax is the only measure that might be reversed. Maybe they'll go with a corporate tax cut or a employer side payroll tax cut instead. But I still think the dividend tax will be repealed. I don't think they will reverse the VAT hike. It would bring in 2.5 billion euros and it becomes incredibly hard to finance their tax reform without that money.

[mvd10]

Are the tax changes final or could the senate scuttle them?  I would think raising the VAT would be politically risky but it does seem in continental Europe unlike the English speaking world have a strongly progressive tax system is less of an issue.  Otherwise raising regressive taxes and cutting progressive ones doesn't seem to get the same backlash.  Now from an economic stand point, I think what they are doing is a good idea, just not sure if it will sell well although perhaps maybe Netherlands is more fiscally conservative than here in Canada where the soak the rich idea is in vogue right now.

I think the repeal of the dividend tax is the only measure that might be reversed. Maybe they'll go with a corporate tax cut or a employer side payroll tax cut instead. But I still think the dividend tax will be repealed. I don't think they will reverse the VAT hike. It would bring in 2.5 billion euros and it becomes incredibly hard to finance their tax reform without that money.

Correct me if wrong but isn't this a case of cutting taxes for the rich while raising for lower incomes.  While there may be good economic reasons to do so, is the public generally onside with this as I know in the English speaking world it wouldn't go over well.  When are the tax cuts supposed to take effect and could the senate kill them due to changes in composition or is the senate safe?

Taxes for the poor won't increase though. The standard tax credit will also increase. And the poor likely also will see things like higher child benefits so very few people will actually lose out under this government. And the senate should theoretically be safe, they also have a 1-seat majority there.

Josse de Voogd (my king is alive!) once called the Netherlands a very left-wing country where the right always wins . Indeed it looks like there are a lot of rural areas which vote for the right (not the VVD, but other right-wing parties) but probably support a very left-wing economic agenda. In elections where economic issues are dominant the cities often swing to the right while the rural areas swing to the left. But when cultural issues are dominant the rural areas become even more right-wing while the cities become even more left-wing.

[mvd10]

They would need to pass it before the provincial elections (2019). Party discipline is extremely strong in the Netherlands so governing with an extremely small majority is possible (but it's still hard).

[mvd10]

Kinda changed my mind on the dividend tax. If it's really a necessary step to keep Shell, Unilever etc. here, including tens of thousands of jobs, then I support it. But the government should be open about the companies and the number of jobs that are on the line.

More good news for mvd10: I'm inclined to vote for the VVD in the upcoming local election.

Welcome to the dark side

Ironically I've become less enthusiastic about repealing the dividend tax. The Netherlands has a lot of tax deals with developed countries, so investors can get a rebate on most of the dividend tax they pay to the Dutch government which means a large part of this tax cut would go to foreign governments. I'm also not really sure whether we should take these threats seriously. The only country with no dividend tax is the UK and I doubt that the UK is an attractive place for those countries. Basing your tax policy on the threats of 4 multinationals doesn't seem like a good approach.  Further reducing the corporate income tax probably also would have kept those companies in the Netherlands and it also would help smaller companies (and it would be less controversial). Most economists polled by the Telegraaf also mentioned that a corporate tax cut would have made more sense (9 out of 10 opposed the repeal of the dividend tax). But ironically one of those economists who oppose repealing the dividend actually tweeted that the dividend tax should be repealed a couple of years ago.

Then again, apparently Trump's tax plan would change the rules for the tax credit for foreign dividends so perhaps it's a good idea after all (and the rest of the world usually follows the US on tax policy so it's possible that more countries will eliminate the rebate and encourage companies to move headquarters back to their own country).

Anyway, the dividend tax is becoming quite an issue and the VVD is getting most flak. But I doubt VVD voters really care about this, this probably only makes the leftists and right-wing populists hate the VVD even more. Technically D66 State Secretary Menno Snel or CDA Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra should defend this measure in parliament, but the opposition summoned Rutte to explain it. They probably want to tie this to the VVD.

[mvd10]

Oh, I'm sorry, I thought I've read it somewhere, but you're right.

[mvd10]

Left-wing parties seem to relatively unified in opposition, but this has happened before. From 2003 to 2006 there was a lot of talk about a left-wing government (PvdA-SP-GL actually scored a majority in some polls from 2004-2006) and in 2011 or 2012 PvdA-GL-SP also released a common budget. But in the end a left-wing coalition never wins a majority. And there is/was a large faction in the PvdA that really doesn't trust the SP (European Commissioner Frans Timmermans for example). But since they only have 37 seats now they're somewhat forced to work with each other. But I wouldn't be surprised if either GL or PvdA decides to ditch the other left-wing parties if they win big in 2021 (or earlier). Klaver might be more ideologically left-wing than other GL leaders and Asscher probably has learned from Rutte 2 but I still don't think left-wing cooperation will lead anywhere. The numbers just aren't there (but this could change since the Dutch electorate is very volatile).

[mvd10]

Apparently well-known CDA MP Pieter Omtzigt also is an useful idiot for the Russians :/.

Omtzigt called an Ukrainian man to witness. Omtzigt suggested the man hadn't been questioned before, but this was false. Omtzigt also made the man say that he saw the plane crash himself, but that wasn't true as only his wife saw the plane crash. The man wasn't even at the site that day. The man claimed that there were other planes at crash site (which is contradictory to what international researchers claimed). This helped feed some conspiracy theories about the MH17 crash (that it was an Ukrainian false flag operation).

Honestly, feeding Russian conspiracy theories and abusing the feelings of the bereaved families is shameless behaviour from Omtzigt and he definitely should either resign or be thrown out by the CDA (Lock him up!). But the problem is that Omtzigt has a huge ego and he has quite a cult following so he won't just give up his seat. If the CDA throws him out the coalition has lost it's majority and Omtzigt probably will join Baudet's party within a matter of days/

Omtzigt has claimed this all was a misunderstanding.

[mvd10]

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2016-11-06.pdf

David is right, there aren't a lot of PVV-VVD swing voters. 12% of VVD voters would have considered voting PVV while 8% of PVV voters consider voting VVD. This poll actually is from 2016 but I don't think the number is a lot different now. But in both 2012 and 2017 there must have been some PVV supporters who initially were going to vote PVV but decided to vote VVD at the last possible moment to stop the left (2012) or because of Rutte's strong response to the diplomatic row with Turkey in 2017. They're probably back to hating Rutte/the VVD now just like they immediately jumped ship after the VVD-PvdA coalition manifesto was released in 2012.

But VVD voters and PVV voters have very different demographics (just look at peil.nl's demographic breakdowns of the 2017 election). Josse de Voogd once released a GL vs SP map ("anywheres" vs "somewheres") and I think a VVD-PVV would look quite similar (once you adjust it to the VVD's 13-seat margin over the PVV). There probably would be some differences (big cities perhaps?).

[mvd10]

He didn't do a VVD-PVV map and I was talking about that, but it would look very similar to those maps anyway. I wish we had a FPTP system only because Josse de Voogd would appear on television more often (with even better maps ).

[mvd10]

PVV and 50PLUS are going to try to "filibuster" the repeal of the property tax exemption for homeowners who fully paid off their mortgages. Martin van Rooijen (50PLUS, 75 years old) will try to speak for 15 hours while a PVV lawmaker will try to speak for 20 hours. This is highly unusual in Dutch politics. They can't talk about random subjects btw, they have to speak about the property tax exemption (or things closely related to it).

Van Rooijen already has begun. He's currently talking about his period as State Secretary of Finance during Den-Uyl 1 in the 1970s (yes this guy was State Secretary/Deputy Minister in the 1970s and randomly decided to return to politics 40 years later).

[mvd10]

Do you feel better, now that Germany is having trouble forming a government?

Yes. Schadenfreude .

The filibuster didn't work out. The debate ended at 05:00. Van Rooij's performance was quite well-received actually.

Wilders seems to have gone off the deep end. He now calls Russia a potential ally instead of an enemy. Wilders was one of the few European far-right politicians who wasn't openly supportive of Russia (or atleast he did nothing to make us think so), mainly because the MH17 crash. I guess Wilders also didn't need Russian donors because he used to have good ties with some American organizations . But now he will be visiting Moscow soon. Maybe he's doing this to get some of Baudet's voters back? Baudet regularly dabbles in pro-Putin MH17 conspiracy theories.


Internal PVV documents from 2014 showed Wilders already instructed his MP's to refrain from too much Russia-bashing, so this isn't completely new. His Russia trip still looks a lot like a (suspicious) policy U-turn imo.

[mvd10]

PvdAmentum though

[mvd10]

PvdAmentum though

Northern Europeans always come back to social democrats...

I fully stand by my prediction that the next general election will be a VVD-PvdA horse race.

[mvd10]

PvdA will win 60 seats in 2021 (or probably late 2019 if the coalition wins only 31 seats in the senate). Watch it happen lol.

Anyway, other polls show a slightly different picture for the PvdA (and also for the PVV), but peil is the only one that does weekly polls .

[mvd10]

http://www.weetmeer.nl/buurt/select

I just found this goldmine. It allows you to select neighborhoods in the Netherlands and it basically shows some statistics (income, median house price, demographics) and it also shows how it voted in 2012 (sadly no numbers for 2017 ). I'm not sure how reliable the information is. They base the vote on precincts within the neighborhood, but if there were no precincts in the neighborhood they base it on nearby precincts in other neighborhoods. One extremely wealthy area in Wassenaar that one would expect to vote 65% VVD or so voted 38% VVD in 2012 according to this site (no precincts). Perhaps David knows whether this is reliable? The municipality of Amsterdam always releases the election results by stadsdeel anyway as far as I know.

[mvd10]

One extremely wealthy area in Wassenaar that one would expect to vote 65% VVD or so voted 38% VVD in 2012 according to this site (no precincts). Perhaps David knows whether this is reliable? The municipality of Amsterdam always releases the election results by stadsdeel anyway as far as I know.

Thanks for sharing this! I think I can find out. Which area is it? Haven't found out how this works yet.

Rijksdorp met De Pan. There was no voting booth in that area so they based it on voting booths in other areas. It's extremely wealthy (also was in a Quote list of places with the highest house prices) yet the PVV was more overrepresented there than the VVD, while the VVD usually scores 65-70% in these places. Some things look a bit weird. Aerdenhout-Zuid has a huge median house price, but the average income is much lower than you would expect, it's lower than in other areas in Aerdenhout even though these areas have much lower median house prices (and indeed these other areas are also less notorious ). Then again, Aerdenhout-Zuid is 44% 65+ while other areas in Aerdenhout are closer to the national average in this regard so old people having huge houses and "low" incomes (still double the national average lol) probably explains it.

The numbers for the place where I lived seem right. It definitely is true that the closest high school was criminally far away .

[mvd10]

I think Roemer was a liability (he definitely had his chance in 2012 and people just don't take him seriously anymore), but replacing him with the daughter of Marijnissen who has been in office for like 8 months after an "internal election" doesn't look great. I somewhat understood the party's strategy of focusing on healthcare as polls showed people thought it was very important and focusing on immigration/integration would be very hard for the SP. A large part of their base probably wouldn't appreciate a vocal left-wing immigration policy while the SP "elite" and a smaller (but not insignificant) part of their base wouldn't accept a tack to the right on immigration.

[mvd10]

RIP "liberal" NRC. They've truly gone off the deep end .

[mvd10]

My understanding of Dutch politics is comparatively poor so I'll try not to clog up this thread too much, but would you be kind enough to explain why the Socialist Party is such a joke?

The previous chairman election also was a sham, it was painfully obvious that the leadership wanted Meyer to win and was prepared to rig the election. Members really don't have anything to say in the SP (though they actually have members, unlike a certain other party ). The internal leadership election also wasn't really fair as Marijnissen has known about Roemer's resignation for 2 months while Karabulut only knew it a day in advance. The SP also has the tendency to shut down local chapters which aren't "visible on the streets" (which is ironic as this tend to be the SP chapters that are part of municipal coalitons and actually have influence on policy). Replacing Roemer with Marijnissen also is in line with this, Marijnissen had high positions in labour unions so she will be much more of an activist than Roemer (this is what the SP leadership wants).

Jesse Klaver (GL leader) wants to broaden his support base. Currently GL is mainly backed by high-educated Randstad students (thank God I don't study in the Randstad ), but he wants to appeal to lower educated people outside of the Randstad as well (and any left-wing party that wants to win the election needs those people to vote for them). I'm not sure whether this will help them, voting GL probably still is a bridge too far for rural voters who might have centre-left sympathies. Then again, if he manages to unite the GL voters (disproportionally young high-educated urban voters) with the more traditional PvdA base he will be a formidable contender in 2021 (or earlier). But in recent years the PvdA wasn't dominated by those young urban high-educated voters to the degree GL was, VVD actually soundly defeated the PvdA in 2012 among younger voters. So I strongly doubt GL can revive the PvdA 2012 coalition, unless the next elections are completely dominated by economic issues (rural voters tend to swing to the left in these elections) and the PvdA doesn't get it's act together. The GL base and the people Klaver is reaching out to probably are incompatible, unless 2021 is an austerity election or something like that.

In some late-night talk show Klaver also eloquently described how the professor in Amsterdam and the primary school teacher in Drenthe have the same dreams. Indeed, this speech probably deeply impressed the professor in Amsterdam while leaving the primary school teacher in Drenthe thinking "So what?". Then again, primary school teachers are very left-wing, so perhaps this isn't a great example. But you guys probably get the idea.