Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[mileslunn]

Are the tax changes final or could the senate scuttle them?  I would think raising the VAT would be politically risky but it does seem in continental Europe unlike the English speaking world have a strongly progressive tax system is less of an issue.  Otherwise raising regressive taxes and cutting progressive ones doesn't seem to get the same backlash.  Now from an economic stand point, I think what they are doing is a good idea, just not sure if it will sell well although perhaps maybe Netherlands is more fiscally conservative than here in Canada where the soak the rich idea is in vogue right now.

[mileslunn]

Are the tax changes final or could the senate scuttle them?  I would think raising the VAT would be politically risky but it does seem in continental Europe unlike the English speaking world have a strongly progressive tax system is less of an issue.  Otherwise raising regressive taxes and cutting progressive ones doesn't seem to get the same backlash.  Now from an economic stand point, I think what they are doing is a good idea, just not sure if it will sell well although perhaps maybe Netherlands is more fiscally conservative than here in Canada where the soak the rich idea is in vogue right now.

I think the repeal of the dividend tax is the only measure that might be reversed. Maybe they'll go with a corporate tax cut or a employer side payroll tax cut instead. But I still think the dividend tax will be repealed. I don't think they will reverse the VAT hike. It would bring in 2.5 billion euros and it becomes incredibly hard to finance their tax reform without that money.

Correct me if wrong but isn't this a case of cutting taxes for the rich while raising for lower incomes.  While there may be good economic reasons to do so, is the public generally onside with this as I know in the English speaking world it wouldn't go over well.  When are the tax cuts supposed to take effect and could the senate kill them due to changes in composition or is the senate safe?

[mileslunn]

When do senate changes potentially happen as one seat seems slim so otherwise they would have to pass the changes before the next municipal elections is my understanding?

[mileslunn]

Looks like unless I am reading it wrong (I don't speak Dutch), the changes in income tax will be phased in towards 2021 not all this year.  Otherwise I believe the top tax rate only falls from 51.95% to 51.75% and then to 50.5% in 2020 and finally to 49.5% in 2021.  Is this correct.  The dividend tax seems like it would benefit the wealthy so while economically a decent idea, we live in a populist age so I am not surprised greater backlash than say there would have been a decade ago.  Corporate tax cuts also look to be scaled back a bit although to be fair when compared to G7 countries, only UK is lower than the Netherlands.  Even with Trump's tax cuts, US rate if you include state rates is higher in the majority of states with only a handful being lower.  On the top marginal rate, all states are lower even California which is the highest, never mind top rates in the US kick in at around $470,000 as opposed to 68,000 Euros so affect far fewer than in the Netherlands.

[mileslunn]

Netherlands has always had a reputation as a fairly progressive country yet looking at vote totals, polls and past elections, it looks like more vote for right wing parties than left wing pretty much every election.  Any reason for that?