Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

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RIP D66

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RIP D66

I also used to think that, but polls show us that D66 voters are actually happy with the coalition agreement (strong focus on climate issues, on which D66 and CU agree). Meanwhile VVD (and to a lesser extent CDA) voters aren't terrible happy with some of the measures like the repeal of the property tax exemption (probably will hurt CDA voters the most) and reducing the mortgage interest deduction for high incomes (will hurt VVD voters the most).

The Zijlstra-Kaag combination at Foreign Affairs will be interesting. Zijlstra is one of the most right-wing VVD politicians and he called the Iran deal a historical mistake in 2015 (he'll definitely be more diplomatic as Foreign Minister though) while Kaag once called Netanyahu a racist and a demagogue, and she also is quite left-wing on asylum issues. They could definitely help each other (Zijlstra has political experience which Kaag lacks, while Kaag has a lot of experience regarding foreign affairs) but there definitely will be some fights.

I'm also interested in Wopke Hoekstra's future. He is the Finance Minister and he still is really young (42). This probably will be Rutte's last term, unless the cabinet falls in 2018/2019 or Rutte decides to go for another term, which both are very possible. But if Rutte decides to retire Hoekstra could be a formidable PM candidate for the CDA, especially since Finance Ministers in the Netherlands usually are very popular. Snd the VVD will either run the charismatic but inexperienced Dijkhoff or the divisive Zijlstra. Buma has to step aside for this to happen, but if this is successful he would go down as the man who did the impossible and made the CDA great again. Hugo de Jonge also could be an alternative to Hoekstra (and they nominated him as Deputy PM), but the Finance Minister always has a lot of prestige while Deputy PM is a pretty meaningless title as long as the PM is around.

Maybe they are happy for now but I believe most of them are clearly leftwinger. That means that they will get pissed soon as this govt, except on environment, is quite rightwing.

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A SP+VVD coalition, dear god this is si trash

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So there will not be any other referendum anymore?

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Poll around the dividend tax:



I'm guessing CU is not included since they are too small. Only VVD voters are in favour, while the voters of the two other government parties are clearly against. Most opposition parties are naturally wholly against, but I am perhaps a bit surprised by the FvD figures. I would have thought they would have more "right-right" voters, who would share economics views with VVD or be even further right. 

Economically they're more right-wing (and more affluent) than PVV voters, but cultural issues trump economic issues for them. Wilders (and Baudet) painted it as a present for foreign investors and governments. They might be more fiscally conservative than the PVV, but for logical reasons they're not very enthusiastic about cutting taxes for foreign investors. And they're probably going to oppose everything the government will put forward because 'party cartel'.

I don't think there is much space for a "right-right" party that shares the economic platform of the VVD and the social/cultural platform of the PVV. VNL tried hard to be that party and it didn't work. A journalist of a prominent right-wing/far-right site got savaged by his readers after he wrote an article in support of VNL's proposal to cut the minimum welfare benefit by 10%. Meanwhile FvD largely shunned economic issues and tried to be a more respectable/intellectual/transparent version of the PVV and it worked out very well. FvD voters probably like lower taxes and they might be not as nostalgic for the 1970s welfare state as PVV voters, but they probably see larger businesses/investors and free marketeers as leftists who want to flood the Netherlands with hordes of cheap foreign labour. Most 'right-right' voters probably are content with the VVD, which remains a fundamentally centre-right/right-wing party even though the VVD Amsterdam makes a left-wing gaffe from time to time.

Well,
People seem to be voting FvD because this is trendy, a bit like voting EM in 2017 in France.

Dear god democracy

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Sorry, one more follow-up to the coalition question:

If there were enough seats, would a GL-D66-SP-PvdA-50+ coalition with PvdD and DENK support be possible? Would parties work with DENK, and would D66 leave the government for this type of deal?

I'm not sure but I believe that 50+ voters are quite rightwing so the idea of a coalition with Denk etc seems implausible to say the least.

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Dear god,
This is ridiculous

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Why is the CDA doing so badly?

It's something that always happens in a center-right coalition, the main center right party gains votes from the minor ones.

Additionnally, VVD fits the Netherlands much more than CDA. The Netherlands is the country of drugs after all, not of zealous christians.

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Much ado about asylum policy as of late, since two Armenian children aged 13 and 12 who had been here for ten years were set to be deported to Yerevan. Their mother had already been deported. Their asylum bid had been rejected countless times, since Armenia is a safe country, but Dutch asylum legislation allows applicants to appeal countless times, with the consequence that children are sometimes deported after having lived in the Netherlands for most of their lives. There were many protests for the two children, but first it appeared as if this would not change anything. When the mother (who has pulled many tricks in the background) then made her children disappear on the night before their deportation (they went "into hiding") and the police asked for citizens to help find them (bad idea), Deputy Minister of Immigration Mark Harbers (VVD) decided to use his discretionary powers and make an exception for the two children. This also means their mother will be allowed to return, even though her asylum application was rejected something like eight times. Presumably CU and D66 exerted a lot of pressure on the VVD in order to have Harbers use his discretionary powers, as many members of these two pro-immigration parties cancelled their memberships over this incident. It painfully points at the fact that D66 and CU lost the immigration issue at the negotiating table.

The government parties don't trust each other at all, as D66, CDA and CU keep struggling with the expected abolishment of the dividend tax: for the former two parties, as many as 40% of their voters in 2017 say they doubt they can vote for them again if the dividend tax is actually abolished. As energy prices, healthcare expenses and the VAT will increase sharply next year, the scrapping of the dividend tax for Unilever and Shell seems an even more obscene measure - the optics are really bad.

Embarrassingly, because of this intra-government disagreement, the government agreed on the 2019 budget too late and missed the deadline to have everything calcultated by the Council of State. The Deputy Head of the Council, former minister Piet-Hein Donner (CDA), took the highly unusual step to summon the Deputy Minister of Finance Menno Snel (D66) to his office and have him explain why this happened. In order to maintain its independence and avoid being viewed as partisan, the Council of State can only be in contact with government officials through a special procedure ("Article 24"). This procedure is usually only invoked for about 1% of the budgetary clauses, but was invoked for much more of the budget this time.

I would not be surprised if the government collapsed over the dividend tax, either this year or next year.

Another scandal that has hurt D66 is the fact that Alexander Pechtold's former mistress, who just resigned as a D66 local councillor in Kampen, told the press that Pechtold had essentially forced her to undergo an abortion, treated her badly altogether and blackmailed her over things, threatening to destroy her reputation and her political career. Pechtold has had his fair number of scandals (the "penthouse" he received from a Canadian diplomat keeps sticking too) and D66 fear that this most recent scandal is going to hurt them in the Provincial elections in March. There is speculation about Pechtold resigning at the October party congress. The question is: who would replace him? Minister of the Interior Kajsa Ollongren was always seen as the most likely successor, but her reputation is very tainted after abolishing the referendum, which many D66 members do not like.

Then finally a poll not by Peil: EenVandaag have ditched their cooperation with GfK/De Stemming, which was the worst poll in the 2017 general election, and now have their polls conducted by Ipsos, the best pollster in 2017.

Ipsos/EenVandaag (September 4, numbers compared to GE):
VVD 32 (-1)
PVV 18 (-2)
CDA 17 (-2)
GroenLinks 16 (+2)
SP 14 (nc)
D66 13 (-6)
Forum voor Democratie 9 (+7)
PvdA 8 (-1)
PvdD 7 (+2)
ChristenUnie 6 (+1)
50Plus 5 (+1)
SGP 3 (nc)
DENK 2 (-1)

A very different picture than with Peil, which has CDA and VVD much lower and FVD (and DENK) much higher. Peil wasn't all that inaccurate in 2017 either, so I guess the truth is somewhere in between.

Who could have expected D66 to get destroyed by joining a center-right to rightwing government? Truly it must be junk!

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Parliament today passed a motion to ban 'conversion therapy' for gay people by a margin of 101-49. PVV, CDA, CU, SGP and FVD opposed the initiative.

Why did they oppose it?

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I'm glad to see that the Netherlands is going to side with France on nuclear energy.