Upstate New York

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I county everything north of Rockland and Westchester Counties Upstate NY.

Trump surprisingly won that area quite handily. Does anyone have exact figures?

[PoliticalJunkie23]

Trump should win it again, especially against someone like Warren. I don't really see how an almost exact copy of Hillary Clinton can win an area that Hillary lost so handily.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Trump should win it again, especially against someone like Warren. I don't really see how an almost exact copy of Hillary Clinton can win an area that Hillary lost so handily.

Warren is rather a copy of Sanders than of Clinton.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Very interesting interim results...

[Dr. Arch]

Handily? You mean barely scraping by, right?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Handily? You mean barely scraping by, right?

"barely scraping by" = "narrowly"?

[Dr. Arch]

Handily? You mean barely scraping by, right?

"barely scraping by" = "narrowly"?

That would be the pragmatic implication.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Handily? You mean barely scraping by, right?

"barely scraping by" = "narrowly"?

That would be the pragmatic implication.

Do you have any figures?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trump should win it again, especially against someone like Warren. I don't really see how an almost exact copy of Hillary Clinton can win an area that Hillary lost so handily.

Warren is rather a copy of Sanders than of Clinton.

Warren is a copy of neither.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump narrowly. Biden or Gillibrand would win it though. Not sure about Harris or Booker.

[Dr. Arch]

Handily? You mean barely scraping by, right?

"barely scraping by" = "narrowly"?

That would be the pragmatic implication.

Do you have any figures?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259586.msg5544447#new

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259586.msg5544447#new

Thank you!

Trump 1,490,242 51.3%
Clinton 1,413,176 48.7%

[Dr. Arch]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259586.msg5544447#new

Thank you!

Trump 1,490,242 51.3%
Clinton 1,413,176 48.7%

Note that that number is not adjusted for third parties. It's likely neither of them reached 50%.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259586.msg5544447#new

Thank you!

Trump 1,490,242 51.3%
Clinton 1,413,176 48.7%

Note that that number is not adjusted for third parties. It's likely neither of them reached 50%.

Yeah, by taking a quick look at the county results I estimate that Johnson received roughly 3.5% of the vote in Upstate NY, and Stein roughly 1.5%.
That results in about 48.7% for Trump and about 46.3% for Clinton.

[Pyro]

It could go either way Upstate.

The rural counties have witnessed manufacturing wither away, agricultural support is non-existent and decent paying jobs are few and far between. An established pro-trade, NAFTA Democrat cannot win these counties in my estimate. 65+ retirement communities and high-end median income earners in counties surrounding Westchester (Putnam, Orange) encompass likely Trump votes in 2020. Warren would have to run an aggressive, economic populist campaign aimed at first-time, swing and under-30s in order to sway Upstate. Should Trump's approvals remain at its present low, it is certainly possible.

[Simfan34]

Not surprising. I've seen Upstate compared to Pennsylvania in its political composition (particularly to the extent in which its favorability to the GOP at a national level has been overstated), so it's to be expected that the results would be  similar (48.7% for Trump and about 46.3% for Clinton in Upstate NY as per Hades's reckoning vs 48.2% for Trump and 47.5% for Clinton in PA).

I suspect, then, that the candidate who wins PA will be able to win upstate. Not that it particularly matters.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

@Simfan34

In what part of the state do you live?

[DPKdebator]

Trump should win it again, especially against someone like Warren. I don't really see how an almost exact copy of Hillary Clinton can win an area that Hillary lost so handily.

Warren is rather a copy of Sanders than of Clinton.

Warren is a copy of neither.

While this isn't exact, the closest analogy is that she has the politics of Bernie with the personality of Hillary.

[foxh8er]

Warren would win. If Hillary could win (she won upstate by a few thousand votes), I think Warren could.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Warren would win. If Hillary could win (she won upstate by a few thousand votes), I think Warren could.

No, she didn't.

[Breton Racer]

Even Hillary Clinton won upstate, if even by a few thousand votes. Warren would win easily over Trump.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Warren would win. If Hillary could win (she won upstate by a few thousand votes), I think Warren could.

No, she didn't.

It depends on your definition of upstate. She won if you consider Dutchess/Putnam/Orange/Ulster/Sullivan to be downstate, as I do.

[Averroës Nix]

HRC won "Upstate NY" only if you include Westchester. In other words, she did not.

Many of Upstate's counties saw some of the strongest swings against the Democrats in the country. That's especially notable for a candidate who represented the state in the Senate, and even more when you recall that she was popular in Upstate New York through 2008, especially compared to other Democrats.

How to interpret this? My preferred explanation is that Clinton's under-performance had as much to do with structural problems in the Democratic Party as with her weaknesses as a candidate. I don't think that there's much of a future for Democrats outside of major cities as long as we see so much political polarization along core-periphery lines.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Didn't someone made a poll about the definition of Upstate New York? The only disputed county was Rockland. Unfortunately, I can't find it anymore.

[Averroës Nix]

Didn't someone made a poll about the definition of Upstate New York? The only disputed county was Rockland. Unfortunately, I can't find it anymore.

There's no end to that debate, as far as the arguably-metro-NYC counties north of Westchester go.

It's not a large enough population or skewed enough victory to make a difference. It's not as if we're talking about a razor-thin margin for the remainder of Upstate. Unless the incomplete data from Redraw the States is badly off, it's on the order of magnitude of 100,000 votes.