Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

I decided to compare real results in terms of vote share and wins with hypothetical results had every PR voter voted in the districts according to my model

                                     Real                              PR  implied
                              Win       Vote share          Win       Vote share  
LDP                        215          47.82%           228          46.85%
LDP(Retroactive)         3            0.39%              3            0.33%
LDP rebel                    1           0.81%              1            0.73%
KP                              8           1.50%              8            1.80%
HRP                           0           0.29%               0            0.29%
JRP                            3           3.18%               2           3.01%
HP                            18         20.64%             19         24.26%                    
Ind(HP)                      8           1.98%               2           1.59%
Ind(LP)                      2           0.41%               2           0.40%
Ind(OPPN)                11           3.18%             12           3.13%
Ind(CDP)                   1            0.63%              0            0.70%
CDP                         17           8.53%             10            8.15%
SDP                           1           1.15%               1           1.04%
JCP                            1           9.02%               1           7.31%
Ind(Left)                    0           0.15%               0           0.10%
Ind(Minor Right)         0           0.19%               0           0.19%
Ind(MinorLeft)            0           0.12%               0           0.12%
Others                       0           0.02%              --------------------

I assume HRP, Ind(Minor Right), Ind(Minor Left) get the exact same votes as in real life and I assumes Others does not run in my PR implied world.

What this shows that the opposition actually over-performed their PR vote share results.  So if all parties ran generic candidates the LDP would have done even better.  In this case there are key districts where the opposition candidates outperform what the PR vote would imply (mostly CDP and Ind(HP)).  

So when I say that the part of the cause of opposition was  due to candidate quality I have to qualify that the average competitive opposition candidate seems to be equal in quality to the LDP candidate in my some cases superior but not achieving parity candidate quality with LDP in a bunch of district cost the opposition (mostly HP) a bunch of seats.

Overall, I found 18 seats (11 HP, 1 CDP, 2 JRP, 4 IND(OPPN)) that LDP won that the opposition could have won if their candidate quality were equal to LDP.  There are 31 (10 HP, 8 CDP,  3 JRP, 3 IND(OPPN), 6 IND(HP), 1 IND(CDP)) seats that the opposition won that they would have lost to LDP had the opposition candidate quality been the same as LDP (and perhaps lack of anti-LDP tactical voting).

[jaichind]

There are a bunch of interesting takeaways that any opposition party should take away from this PR based fair value vote share.

1) Avoid battles like LDP vs Centrist Opposition vs JCP as much as possible.  In fact LDP vs Center-Right Opposition vs Center-Left opposition is actually better in many cases.  This is counter-intuitive since if there is only one Centrist opposition and JCP is not viable then there should be tactical voting for the Centrist opposition to defeat LDP.   In fact what seems to take place is the JCP brand is so toxic that JCP running means that many anti-JCP Centrist voters are so scared that the Centrist opposition is a dud and that as a result JCP could win that they all rush to vote LDP knowing that the LDP has a solid base and can be counted to to defeat LDP.

2) Try to have LDP vs Centrist opposition.  This is obvious since the Centrist opposition needs to consolidate the entire anti-JCP vote.  But this combination also avoids dealing with anti-JCP tactical voting for LDP from 1).  In fact even if it is LDP vs Centrist opposition (backed by JCP) it seems to work out well for the opposition.  It seems the Centrist and Center-Right anti-JCP electorate is negative on the JCP brand but not really the JCP policies.  It seems that even if the Centrist opposition candidate adopted policies to attract JCP support it does not seem to impact his or her ability to capture these anti-JCP voters.

3) As mentioned before LDP vs Center-Right Opposition vs Center-Left Opposition (backed by JCP) seems to work to the benefit of the opposition, more likely the Center-Left Opposition.  It is the same theme, not having JCP  in the fray keeps the anti-JCP tactical vote for LDP away.

4) The worst combination is LDP vs Centrist party but with Right wing candidate vs JCP. Here on paper the Right wing candidate from a Centrist Party should be in a strong position to win since he or she can appeal to LDP-KP marginal voters.  In fact it works the other way.  A Right-wing opposition candidate means that Center-Left opposition party voters will vote JCP.  The anti-JCP vote knows that this will take place and a) loses faith that Right-wing opposition candidate  can even win and b) is freaked out by the fact the JCP vote share will go up and becomes even more determined to vote LDP.  The result is a complete collapse of the Right-wing opposition candidate vote as it loses support on both sides to LDP and JCP.

5) KP might be a source of seats for the opposition if the Centrist opposition has the guts to take it on.  KP's brand seems to be even more toxic than JCP. KP always loses a large chunk of  LDP votes when it runs.  The reason KP wins is because it has connections to various Center-Right and Centrist opposition parties so they do not run against KP.   Often it just become KP vs JCP where because the KP base it can draw upon (LDP KP and other Center-Right and even Centrist opposition votes) is much larger than JCP and the JCP toxic brand does not help.  But if the Center-Left or even Centrist Opposition parties decides to take on KP in a seat that KP decides to run in where it is not a LDP-KP stronghold KP could be beaten.

So net net , the opposition jobs next round of elections is to by hook or crook make sure JCP does not run in single seat districts.  In 2016 that worked out well for the opposition and could have benefited the Centrist opposition more if it was more successful in 2017 to do this in more districts.