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Author Topic: Danish Local and Regional Elections, 21 Nov 2017  (Read 4430 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2017, 11:20:45 am »

Polls opened at 8 and will close at 20. Results from the smallest polling places will start to come in after 30-45 minutes and then start dripping. Most places should be counted by 23.00; normally only Aarhus and Copenhagen finish later than that.

Results will come in here: https://www.kmdvalg.dk/main

If you click at "tidligere valg" in the right top corner, you can find results from all the previous elections.

Coverage can be followed at the two main TV stations and the biggest newspapers. Normally, they are not geoblocked at elections.

DR(state broadcaster) coverage has already started: https://www.dr.dk/live/nyheder/live/2697473

Later tv2.dk, jp.dk, b.dk and politiken.dk should also have live coverage in video and text.
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« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2017, 11:48:13 am »

I've expected better looking webpage. Also, what result we might expect as for the whole country both for the regions and communes? 
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Diouf
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« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2017, 12:45:27 pm »

I've expected better looking webpage. Also, what result we might expect as for the whole country both for the regions and communes? 

There have been no national polls because most of the ones from 2013 were terrible. DR also made a horrible exit prognosis that they published at 14.00, which showed the Social Democrats down in the low twenties. This meant that Thorning-Schmidt was very quick to go out and apologize and declare it a terrible result just after the polls closed, while in the end the party didn't lose a lot (although the Red Bloc did). So there won't be any exit polls either, I believe, but it seems like DR might have made some local polls.

Two scientists from Copenhagen University made a prediction based on historic trends like mayor effects, the effects of the national polling average and the last national election. They predict national share:

Social Democrats 29% (-0,5%)
Social Liberals 3.5% (-1.3%)
Conservatives 7.3% (-1.2%)
New Right 0.3% (new)
SPP 6.1% (+0.4%)
Liberal Alliance 4.4% (+1.5%)
DPP 14.4% (+4.3%)
Liberals 24.5% (-2.2%)
Red-Green Alliance 4.6% (-2.3%)
The Alternative 1.5% (new)
Locallists &others 4.5% (-0.5%)
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Diouf
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« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2017, 12:55:37 pm »

Turnout at 18 is 56.4%, slightly below the 2013 figure of 56.6%
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Diouf
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« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2017, 01:09:20 pm »

In Copenhagen, there are the ritual organizational problems and long lines in Copenhagen. The picture below outside the City hall



Perhaps, they are further delayed by having the longest ballots in the country:



It will be interesting to see whether any of the less-known candidates can win a seat or at least get close. The immigrant party the National Party is running mother and son from the Bendali family (picture below), but it doesn't seems like they are particularly organized and putting all their effort on Hvidovre. However, the electoral potential should obviously be there. The Feminist Initiative is running. The same is a number of different versions of free marihuana parties. The candidate with the most attention is probably "Dovne Robert" (Lazy Robert), who became notorius after boasting about the way he managed to get public benefits for 12 years without doing anything to get a job.

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Diouf
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« Reply #30 on: November 21, 2017, 01:12:28 pm »

The immigrant party the National Party is running mother and son from the Bendali family (picture below), but it doesn't seems like they are particularly organized and putting all their effort on Hvidovre. However, the electoral potential should obviously be there.

Apparently, Amin Jensen from the National Party is driving voters to the polling place in a limousine to get more young immigrants voting Smiley

https://www.tv2lorry.dk/artikel/limousinekoersel-til-valgstedet-amin-jensen-koerer-vaelgere-til-stemmeboksen
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Diouf
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« Reply #31 on: November 21, 2017, 02:15:32 pm »

First result already in!

Avernakø with 78 voters in Faaborg-Midtfyn. A win for the Social Democrats who wins 25 votes (+19). Maybe a local candidate running this time Wink
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Diouf
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« Reply #32 on: November 21, 2017, 02:18:46 pm »

b.dk has a national result line on the front page.

Polls still open in Aarhus and Copenhagen due to the long lines
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Diouf
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« Reply #33 on: November 21, 2017, 03:01:20 pm »

First full result in from Læsø. The mayor Tobias Birch Johansen became mayor for the local Læsø List, but changed to the Liberals during the period. He seems really popular, and the Liberals have seen a huge gain from 14.5% to 37.1%. The party wins 4 out of 9 seats, so Johansen only needs to find one ally. DPP also progresses a lot and gains a seat. So likely already a Liberal gain, compared to last time.
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Diouf
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« Reply #34 on: November 21, 2017, 03:06:47 pm »

10% counted in Ringkøbing-Skjern. The Liberals 12.8% down, while both the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats go forward with 3.4% and 4.1%. Could this Liberal bastion fall, and perhaps a rare victory for the Christian Democrats?
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Diouf
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« Reply #35 on: November 21, 2017, 03:20:58 pm »

Another island is counted, Samsø. Here the Dutch mayor Marcel Meijer also seems very popular; we see another strong incumbency effect. The Social Democrats progress by more than 20% to 41.3% and wins 5 of 11 seats.

The DPP's two best prospects are in some trouble. Rene Christensen in Guldborgsund is slightly up, 0.4%, to 24.7% so far, but the mayor's local list is 17.6% up to 34.3%. A bit more than 10% is counted. In Assens, Thulelsen Dahl's big brother is 2.0% down to 13.2%, while Liberals is up 9.8% to 47.4%. 15% counted.
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Diouf
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« Reply #36 on: November 21, 2017, 03:44:16 pm »

Another island, another stroooong incumbency effect. Morsø. Liberals 14.3% forward to 48.3%, and now an absolute majority in the council with 12 seats (+4). A local list goes from 4 seats to 1 after their founder did not run this time.

Liberals getting hammrered in Thisted. The Liberal mayor left for the Conservatives during the term. Liberals 10.4% down to 23.1%, Conservatives up 6.6% to 15.8%, Social Democrats up 4.3% to 32.7%. Ulla Vestergaard from the latter is probably a strong guess for the new mayor
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Diouf
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« Reply #37 on: November 21, 2017, 04:05:40 pm »

Some other municipalities fully counted. Liberal retains absolute majority in Lemvig, where the Social Liberals quite surprisingly wins a seat. In Billund, Liberals go 10% down and loses absolute majority. However, they are still clearly the biggest party with 36.5 and 10 seats, so if they can convince the DPP, they can keep the mayor. In Assens, the Liberal mayor wins two seats, while the DPP and Jens Henrik Thulelsen Dahl drops a bit, so that will likely not be the place, where the DPP gets its first seat. Ærø will be an exciting coalition forming. The Social Democrat mayor drops two seats to 4, while the Conservtive MP progresses a bit and stays on 3 seats.
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« Reply #38 on: November 21, 2017, 04:20:21 pm »

The results seems to be all over the place as far as Venstre is concerned.
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Diouf
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« Reply #39 on: November 21, 2017, 04:26:15 pm »

The results seems to be all over the place as far as Venstre is concerned.

Yep, up massively in a lot of places with the incumbency effects, but similarly hammered in traditionally strong places like Thisted and Ringkøbing-Skjern. Nationally at 27.6% so far, but we still lack a lot of votes from the four big cities, where they will probably lose many votes.

SPP very strong in Langeland, with Tonni Hansen, a local union man, which could win them the mayor post.
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Diouf
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« Reply #40 on: November 21, 2017, 04:32:38 pm »

The mayor in Bornholm, Winni Grosbøll, loses 7%. Perhaps a lot to the Alternative, who wins 6% and gets a seat. DPP goes from 6.6% to 15.7%, their best result of the night so far. Grosbøll likely to stay on with support from SPP, Alternative and Red-Green Alliance
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Diouf
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« Reply #41 on: November 21, 2017, 05:00:16 pm »

No obvious route for a DPP mayor currently. Rene Christensen in Guldborgsund wins 1.8% and stays on 7 seats, while the local list mayor goes 15% forward to 33.1%, and goes from 5 to 11 seats. The Social Democrats with 6 seats rejected Christensen as mayor beforehand, so likely John Brædder from the local list can stay in power.

New Right looks likely to get in at least in Hillerød. The other places are on the line, lower in Allerød and Vejle than expected
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Diouf
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« Reply #42 on: November 21, 2017, 05:09:50 pm »

Two thirds, 65.3% counted nationally so far. Results compared to last time.

Social Democrats 32% (+3.2%)
Liberals 26.2% (-3.6%)
DPP 9.6% (-1%)
Conservatives 9.2 (+0.5%)
SPP 5.2% (+0.1%)
Red-Green Alliance 4.4% (-0.8%)
Social Liberals 3.9% (=)
Liberal Alliance 2.3% (-0.3%)
Alternative 2.0% (new)
New Right 0.9% (new)

Still lot of urban, city votes left, which will knock the two big parties down, and lift several of the smaller. Looks like a pretty poor Liberal result in terms of percentage, but as noted above, their results are very different, so perhaps they can keep more mayors than the numbers suggest. Disaster for DPP so far also, looks like going back and perhaps no mayors, their Copenhagen mayor not safe either.
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Diouf
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« Reply #43 on: November 21, 2017, 05:30:14 pm »

New Right wins a seat in Hillerød, while they very surpisingly does not manage to win one in Allerød.
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Diouf
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« Reply #44 on: November 21, 2017, 05:56:00 pm »

In Skive, the local list with former mayor Per Jeppesen wins two seats and becomes the kingmaker between the Liberals and Social Democrats
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Diouf
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« Reply #45 on: November 21, 2017, 06:14:34 pm »

Frederiksberg is leaning towards the Red Bloc currently. The Alternative is at 6%, which seems to be just enough to provide a Social Democrat mayor. However, there is still 25% left to count
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Diouf
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« Reply #46 on: November 21, 2017, 06:18:41 pm »

DPP is decreasing in 70 municipalities out of 98. Really incredible, considering their good 2015 general election and they are still at 18% in national polls. They have likely been damaged by the many strong incumbency effects, since they don't have any mayors to benefit from this. And instead of becoming a third force, they seem to have been caught between two Liberal and Social Democrat candidates in many places. Also the party has had the most defectors and internal chaos several places, but it was not expected to influence them much, and certainly does not explain 70 decreases.
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Diouf
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« Reply #47 on: November 21, 2017, 06:47:23 pm »

It looks like Conservatives can hold on to the mayor post in Frederiksberg with the narrowest of margins!. The Blue Bloc alliance got 49.7% and 13 seats, while the Red Bloc alliance got 49.5% and 12 seats. It swung back and forward all night.

Social Democrats doing better in Copenhagen and Aarhus than expected. 68.4% counted in Copenhagen, and they are only 0.1% down. 74% counted in Aarhus, and only 0.5% down. The Alternative was expected to eat quite a lot of their votes, but they seem to have damaged other parties more.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #48 on: November 21, 2017, 08:40:14 pm »

Final results:

Social Democrats - 32.4% (+2.9)
Liberals - 23.1% (-3.5)
Conservative People's - 8.8% (+0.3)
Danish People's - 8.8% (-1.3)
Red-Greens - 6.0% (-0.9)
Socialist People's - 5.7% (+0.1)
Social Liberals - 4.6% (-0.2)
Alternative - 2.9% (new)
Liberal Alliance - 2.6% (-0.3)
New Right - 0.9% (new)

Overall:
Red Bloc - 51.6% (+4.9)
Blue Bloc - 44.7% (-4.9)

A significant victory for the red bloc, and particularly the social democrats.
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« Reply #49 on: November 21, 2017, 08:59:43 pm »

Does this bode well for the SocDems for 2019, or is it too far off to be a useful predictor?
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