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Author Topic: Danish Local and Regional Elections, 21 Nov 2017  (Read 4765 times)
rosin
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« Reply #50 on: November 22, 2017, 05:45:12 am »

A picture of distribution of the mayoral seats - as it looks right now:


(Yellow means a mayor from some local list - grey is where a new mayor hasn't been found yet).
« Last Edit: November 22, 2017, 07:09:18 am by rosin »Logged
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« Reply #51 on: November 22, 2017, 09:00:33 am »

What's that place in Northern Jutland where Radikale has a Mayor?
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FredLindq
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« Reply #52 on: November 22, 2017, 09:45:45 am »

Accordibg to my calculations the red bloc wins four (+1) and the blue one (-1). The blue only wins Southern Jutland and loses Sjealland.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #53 on: November 22, 2017, 10:42:19 am »

What's that place in Northern Jutland where Radikale has a Mayor?

Rebild. The place where the Rebild Celebrations take place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebild_Festival
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rosin
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« Reply #54 on: November 22, 2017, 11:54:39 am »

What's that place in Northern Jutland where Radikale has a Mayor?

Rebild. The place where the Rebild Celebrations take place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebild_Festival

Yes. One of the only remaining Danish municipalities without a major urban centre (the biggest town is Støvring with app. 7000 citizens).
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Diouf
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« Reply #55 on: November 22, 2017, 01:20:26 pm »

A great election for the Social Democrats. The kind of dominating performance, they hoped for a few months ago, but expectations had been lowered quite a bit with the developments in recent months. Not only will they win the mayor and regional leader count by a distance, they also carried a substantial part of the burden themselves. With 91 mayoral coalitions in place out of 98 municipalities, the Social Democrats have 44 mayors, Liberals 34, Conservatives 8, local lists 3, and 1 each to SPP and Social Liberals. The Social Democrats wins 4 regional chairmanships, while the Liberals are down at 1. The Social Democrats progressed with 2.9% to 32.4%. While it wasn't particular surprising that they could get some decent swings in mid-sized town municipalities, it was quite surprising how well they did in the four major cities. Only 0.2% decrease in Copenhagen to 27.6%, only a 0.3% decrease in Aarhus to 37.9%, a 13% increase in Odense to 41.8% and a 12.4% increase in Aalborg to 48.7% and an absolute majority. Particularly in the two former, where the Alternative did well, it was expected to hurt the Social Democrats. Among the notable new mayors is the only 24-year old Christina Krzyrosiak Hansen in Holbæk.

A poor result for the Liberals with a 3.5% decrease to 23.1%, but not completely unexpected. However, many believed that at least some of those votes would be picked up by the DPP, which could then help some Liberal mayors stay on the job. However, that help they could not rely on in many places. Their big city performance was around as poor as expected, but they had too many other municipalities with big decreases. Even in traditionally strong places like Vejen, Varde and Billund, where they kept the mayor post. The traditional stronghold of Ringkøbing-Skjern looks lost; now the question only seems to be whether a Christian Democrat or Social Democrat will take over. While the DPP defeat caused them to lose mayor posts, it has to some extent also shielded them from the worst media pressure.

The DPP was expected to make a big breakthrough and win their first real mayor posts, but instead dropped 1.3% to 8.8% and lost their finest post as Mayor of Culture in Copenhagen. They certainly have been damaged by defections and internal chaos in several municipalities, but it is unprecedented for a party to make such large gains at the last national election, and then actually lose votes at the next local elections. They might also be hit by the fact that some of their voters are among those, who turn out less at local election, but they must still worry that the 18% they are currently getting in national polls are not entirely accurate. Most of their mayor chances were not really close to coming through, although it seems like they might actually stand a chance at Læsø, where the they and two other parties are trying to shut out the Liberal mayor that made huge progress.

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ingemann
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« Reply #56 on: November 23, 2017, 10:15:22 am »

Does this bode well for the SocDems for 2019, or is it too far off to be a useful predictor?

It's not a udeful preditor, Danes votes significant different at municipality and parliament elections. But at the same time, this is very good news for SocDem (but also for SPP and the Conservatives), the fact that they increased their vote was a success in it own, it indicate that they have gotten increased support, and they did this while tyhe incumbant effect was against them (that effect means a lot at municipality election, and it's very bad news for the Liberals, that they failed to use the strong postion they got last election). Next there's another electional resultat which are interesting the SocDem has continued strengthen themselves in traditional Liberal strongholds. While the Liberals have been weaken there, and I think mainly the leadership in parliament are at fault for that. So the Liberals need to deal with the fact that they have to careful avoid another (peasant) revolt in the party. They already dislime the the PM and this result have not improved on that dislike. As for Fredriksen the leader of the SocDem, this results means that she won't see unrest, they will allow her to continue her policies, without complaining even the people who hates these policies. This election also serve her well to become more active again. It gave her a excuse to sell her messages, show that she was more popular than the PM and now she can continue with a poplitical victory and a united party behind her.
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Kamala
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« Reply #57 on: November 24, 2017, 02:01:17 am »

Does this bode well for the SocDems for 2019, or is it too far off to be a useful predictor?

It's not a udeful preditor, Danes votes significant different at municipality and parliament elections. But at the same time, this is very good news for SocDem (but also for SPP and the Conservatives), the fact that they increased their vote was a success in it own, it indicate that they have gotten increased support, and they did this while tyhe incumbant effect was against them (that effect means a lot at municipality election, and it's very bad news for the Liberals, that they failed to use the strong postion they got last election). Next there's another electional resultat which are interesting the SocDem has continued strengthen themselves in traditional Liberal strongholds. While the Liberals have been weaken there, and I think mainly the leadership in parliament are at fault for that. So the Liberals need to deal with the fact that they have to careful avoid another (peasant) revolt in the party. They already dislime the the PM and this result have not improved on that dislike. As for Fredriksen the leader of the SocDem, this results means that she won't see unrest, they will allow her to continue her policies, without complaining even the people who hates these policies. This election also serve her well to become more active again. It gave her a excuse to sell her messages, show that she was more popular than the PM and now she can continue with a poplitical victory and a united party behind her.

Mange tak!

Danish politics seem interesting to me, maybe because of how good Borgen was.
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« Reply #58 on: November 25, 2017, 09:52:58 am »

The Conservatives had a great local election, made a slight progress from 8.5% to 8.8% and won 20 additional councillors. With the DPP's losses, they even ended up as the third biggest party, both in terms of votes and councillors. The party did lose 5 mayors, but most of that was relatively expected. These losses were due to a mixture of a general poor blue result, unpopular mayor or poor relations to central parties (e.g. in Viborg the Conservative mayor actually made progress, but the Social Democrats sided with the Liberals this time). Frederiksberg was on the line with only 200 votes keeping it from going to the Red Bloc and will probably be lost in four years, but most of their other mayors were entrenched further with decent progresses in Gentofte, Lyngby-Taarbæk, Høje-Taastrup, Helsingør etc.

The Red-Green Alliance entrenched their great 2013 result, and are still represented in many councils around the country. They lost 17 councillors and went from 6.9% to 6.0%. In all four major cities, they actually dropped back a bit, being hit not only by the Alternative's entrance but also a stronger-than-expected Social Democrat showing. However, the party remains the second force in Copenhagen politics, and their lead candidate there Ninna Hedeager Olsen, as expected, chose the influential Technics and Environment mayor post for the party again, which will strongly influence the infrastructure decisions in the capital.

The SPP did a bit better than expected after their horror show in 2013. They basically hit status quo in terms of votes, and won 10 councillors. They surprisingly won a mayor post with Tonni Hansen in Langeland, where the party was not even in the council before the election. The local trade unionist won 2.189 personal votes in the island, and almost dragged the entire SPP list into the council. Three candidates were elected with 25, 23 and 22 personal votes, and Bjarne Nielsen with 19 votes must be a bit disappointed to be the only SPP candidate out of seven to miss out. Former leader Villy Søvndal had a brilliant result in Region Southern Denmark with 69.841 personal votes and 13.6% for the party, but his behaviour post-election was less impressive. The Blue Bloc still won a majority, so the 34-year old Liberal Stephanie Lose could continue as regional chairman. After being barraged with attacks from Søvndal during the campaign, she chose not to talk with him when forming the majority and distributing posts, which made Søvndal call her "offended like a girl" and "powerarrogant".
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« Reply #59 on: November 26, 2017, 10:48:02 am »

TheSocial Liberals ended up with a decent election after a rocky start to the campaign. They only lost 0.2% to finish at 4.6% nationwide, but they won 18 councillors and kept their mayors in both Rebild and Copenhagen. Their progress in councillors despite a slight decline is largely due to their favourable alliances with other Red Bloc parties; the Alternative was running in alliance with them many places and often the Social Liberals ended up as the biggest party and won the seat of the electoral alliance. Similarly, they have probably been helped by the Social Democrat progress in several places, where they have formed electoral alliances with them. In Copenhagen, they lost 2.3% to 8.9%, but it was still enough to get the 6th mayor post out of 7th since the Red Bloc parties won enough votes to get 6 mayors, and they finished ahead of the SPP.

The Alternative had a good local election debut with 2.9% nationwide and 20 councillors, but the internal divisions are growing stronger and louder by the day. Their amazing result in Copenhagen, 10.5% and 6 councillors, meant that the party won the right to pick the 4th mayor in Copenhagen. The party's lead candidate Niko Grünfeld, a part of the boyband around party leader Uffe Elbæk, has chosen to become Mayor of Culture and Leisure activities instead of becoming Mayor of Employment and Integration. The Culture post is normally seen as the most lightweight mayor post, and certainly reinforces the idea of the party as a "party-party" without the ability to handle serious roles. They have been very critical of the rigid rules for persons on unemployment benefits and have severely criticized the previously Social Liberal mayor, so it would have been logical to take that post and lessen the demands on the unemployed. And as a very pro-immigration party, it would also have been logical to pick the integration responsibility. Several MPs from the Realos-wing have criticized Grünfeld's move, and several parts of the base also seems riled up. Outside of the urban Copenhagen, Frederiksberg and Aarhus, the party as expected did very well on several islands, Fanø, Bornholm and Langeland was all in their top9 municipalities.

The Liberal Alliance had a poor night. Instead of making progress, they dropped 0.3% to 2.6% and lost 4 councillors. This is poor news for a party that is also significantly down in national polls compared to their 2015 election. Part of their problem is that there are popular conservative mayors in many of their heartlands, but with the party's lower tax message and resistance to public spending, they should be able to carve out a niche for themselves in more places. The party is controlled tightly by the top of the party, so any revolution from below in the party is unlikely even if they drop further in the polls. However, party leader and foreign minister Anders Samuelsen is the longest-sitting party leader currently, and came out ruffled of the process that caused the party to enter the government. It is perhaps not unlikely that he could resign and focus on his foreign minister role, and hand over the reins to Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, Minister of Economy and Interior. With around a year to the next election, it would arguably have to happen relatively soon.

The New Right had an okay election. Their vote was broader and less concentated than expected. They won 0.9% nationally despite only running in 61 of 98 municipalities, and finished above 2%, the threshold at national elections, in 11 at them, but they only won one councillor seat. Mette Thiesen in Hillerød, the former Conservative councillor, won 3.6% and 826 personal votes, the third-highest in the municipality. The party was expected to also win seats in Vejle and Allerød, but their experienced candidates there failed to get elected under their new badge. And the strongest of their own new candidates often ended in the 2-3% mark, where you often just miss out on a seat. Overall, they still look very likely to enter parliament at the next general election, and with Thiesen proving her worth, they already have three chariasmatic, strong potential MPs. The two others are party leader Pernille Vermund and former Liberal Alliance councillor Lars Boje Mathiesen, neither of whom ran at this election. As a result of Thiesen's strong showing in Northern Zealand, Vermund might move away from her natural habitat there at the general election and instead run in the bigger Zealand multi-member constituency, where there are plenty of DPP votes to win.

The picture for the Christian Democrats is a bit more like how I expected the New Right to do. Very strong in the five places, where they got persons elected and then under 1% in all but one other place. Nationally, they ended at 0.5% after running in 40 municipalities. Their big hope Kristian Andersen in Ringkøbing-Skjern did as well as expected, increasing with 5.8% to 15.5%, topping the personal vote list with 3.618 and doubling from 3 to 6 seats. There were a majority possible without the traditional mayor party in the Liberals, but after intense negotiatons, the Social Democrats declined to make Andersen mayor citing first and foremost his opposition to marrying homosexuals. Instead, the Social Democrats turned to the Liberals. The party retained their single councillors in Hedensted, Herning and Bornholm, all with slight increases and even won a regional councillor in Midtjylland, but not competitive anywhere else, which suggests their general brand is very poor.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2017, 10:51:05 am by Diouf »Logged

Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #60 on: November 26, 2017, 01:26:26 pm »

« Last Edit: November 26, 2017, 04:17:27 pm by Filuwaúrdjan »Logged



Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #61 on: November 26, 2017, 05:43:39 pm »

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Diouf
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« Reply #62 on: December 01, 2017, 07:00:26 am »

Although the mayors will not be officially elected until mid-December in most places, it now seems that all councils have now found a new mayor. Two municipalities have been in doubt for several days.

In Læsø, the smallest municipality with 1.800, inhabitants, the reigning Liberal mayor Tobias Birch Johansen had a great election with the party winning 37.1% and 4 of 9 seats. However, his style had apparently annoyed several other councillors, so the 5 other councillors (2 DPP, 2 local list, 1 Social Democrat) agreed after a few days to make DPP's Karsten Nielsen mayor. Birch Johansen was furious, so he offered to make the single Social Democrat mayor, which was then pondered over for a few days. However, eventually he rejected the offer, and the DPP will therefore get their first real mayor in Læsø. It is certainly a breakthrough for DPP to get their first mayor, but the effect now seems quite small. It fell into place quite late, which means the media narrative of DPP failure is already settled, which might have been mitigated a bit if "DPP gets their first mayor" had been a recurring story on election night. Also Læsø is the smallest municipality, and Karsten Nielsen has never played any role in the party, and probably won't really now, except for being a trophy to show. This would have been much different if it had been one of their many prominent MPs running.

In Slagelse, the negotiations have been really wicked. Most of the focus have been on Liberal Alliance MP and councillor Villum Christensen, who was just about elected. His party was in an electoral alliance with the New Right, which won a seat combined. And despite the Liberal Alliance decline by half to 2.7% (1.184 votes), this was just enough to stay ahead of the New Right with 2.5% (1.067 votes) and get a seat. Normally Liberal Alliance councillors automatically support the centre-right mayor candidate, but this case was very special. Christensen had been very vocal before the election that he would not support incumbent Liberal mayor Sten Knuth, due to a poor working relationsship. This was largely because Christensen, an avid sceptic of the idea of climate change, had made a lot of shenanigans regarding a hydrogen bus scheme in the area. His close friend had come up with this idea, and via his place in the council, he had succesfully pushed for a few millions in municipial support for this project. However, the project did not seem to go anywhere, and both the mayor and the civil servant leader seemed to agree that the project should be stopped, which made Christensen and his friend very angry. Through other contacts in the town administration, they conspired to get the civil servant leader fired behind the back of the mayor. The Social Democrats, lead by former MP John Dyrby Paulsen, had been sceptial of the bus project in the beginning, but saw it as a chance to undermine the Liberal mayor, and started to support Christensen and LA in this case.

The Liberal mayor obviously became furious when he found out about the conspiracy to fire the lead civil servant, and tried to get the council to start an official investigation of whether Christensen had broken the law, something the Social Democrats blocked from happening. So when Villum Christensen ended up as a king maker between the red and blue bloc after this election, it would perhaps had been logical for Christensen to support his pals in the Social Democrats and make Dyrby mayor as a "thank you". However, the Liberal Alliance had stated nationally that they would not support red mayors, something which Christensen had been forced to say as well. So the blue parties made all kind of offers to Christensen, where he could support them with another mayor than Knuth, but he rejected all of them, seemingly trying to find a way he could still end up supporting the Social Democrats. This solution was presented yesterday, where a deal was presented between Social Democrats and LA, that said Dyrby will be mayor for two years, and Christensen could become mayor for the last two years. In this way, Christensen tried to portray it as a partly win for himself, but it quickly turned out that neither SPP nor the Red-Greens have any intention to make Christensen mayor after two years, so this will very likely never happen. So Christensen will likely just support a Social Democrat mayor for four years. Had this just been a councillor, he would likely have been excluded from the LA for making a Social Democrat mayor, but his dual role as a MP complicates this. The government has a narrow 91 seat majority, and if Christensen was excluded, the majority would rest solely on another corrupt MP, independent, former Greenlandic PM Aleqa Hammond. So the national party now likely seems to live with him, and hope he stays in line until the next general election, where they can likely get rid of him. He was already on the line in 2015, where another LA candidate was 171 votes from winning his seat in Zealand, and it seems very unlikely he could regain his seat after all this.

Number of mayors:

Social Democrats 47 (+14)
Liberals 37 (-11)
Conservatives 8 (-5)
DPP 1(+1)
SPP 1 (=)
Social Liberals 1 (=)
Local lists 3 (+1)
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Diouf
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« Reply #63 on: December 21, 2017, 08:42:01 am »

All councils have now elected their mayors, and there was one more surprise left. In Fanø, the second-smallest municipality, the mayor ended up being Sofie Valbjørn from the Alternative. Originally, a local list had cobbled together a narrow coaliton, but that fell apart, which allowed Valbjørn the possibility to get the post in cooperation with the two big parties, Liberals and Social Democrats. So in addition to their Mayor of Culture and Leisure activities in Copenhagen, the Alternative also won a "real" mayor in their first ever local election.

So the final mayor tally is:

Social Democrats 47 (+14)
Liberals 37 (-11)
Conservatives 8 (-5)
DPP 1(+1)
SPP 1 (=)
Social Liberals 1 (=)
Alternative 1 (+1)
Local lists 2 (=)

The Social Democratic mayor of Aarhus, Jacob Bundsgaard, will become chairman of the Association of Municipalities



Suprisingly, the Liberal regional chairman of Region Southern Denmark, Stephanie Lose, will become chairman of the Association of Regions. Despite the Liberals only winning 1 of 5 regional chairmanships, the overall result was still narrow enough for the Social Liberals to have the deciding votes and they decided to go for Lose.
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