Queensland State Election- November 25, 2017

[Lachi]

You put the wrong state up.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Does anyone have a paint friendly map of the current electoral districts?

No, because the redistribution has just finished.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You put the wrong state up.

No, I couldn't find a statewide map of the new Queensland boundaries, however I remembered that there is no map of the WA election results from this year.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I made a map with current ABC projections:

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I made a map with current ABC projections:

Thank You!
Would you be able to, if it isn't to much of a bother, make a map of the WA election?

[IceAgeComing]

You put the wrong state up.

No, I couldn't find a statewide map of the new Queensland boundaries, however I remembered that there is no map of the WA election results from this year.

i mean you could make it

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You put the wrong state up.

No, I couldn't find a statewide map of the new Queensland boundaries, however I remembered that there is no map of the WA election results from this year.

i mean you could make it

I don't know how to make maps, or colour maps, or change images online.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

One Nation's only chance of a seat is Mirani, where they are currently ahead. Looks like the Greens will win Maiwar, they are currently 0.7 ahead of Labor for second place.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Thank You!
Would you be able to, if it isn't to much of a bother, make a map of the WA election?

The Tally Room (http://www.tallyroom.com.au/maps) has Google Maps kmz files that you can import into Google Maps or Google Earth.  I imported the 2017 map into the following link -
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1iz4-E_9ynB-Gu9GVl92bWvFTtX5-wDEy&usp=sharing

Not sure what the deal is with Central Wheatbelt - should be Nationals green.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Thank You!
Would you be able to, if it isn't to much of a bother, make a map of the WA election?

The Tally Room (http://www.tallyroom.com.au/maps) has Google Maps kmz files that you can import into Google Maps or Google Earth.  I imported the 2017 map into the following link -
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1iz4-E_9ynB-Gu9GVl92bWvFTtX5-wDEy&usp=sharing

Not sure what the deal is with Central Wheatbelt - should be Nationals green.

Thank you so much! That is very helpful.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

BREAKING NEWS:
Antony Green is predicting Labor will win the Queensland election with 48 seats

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor is currently predicted to have 48 seats, one more than needed for a majority. Even if they fall below here the Greens are currently predicted to win Maiwar, giving Labor one extra vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Thank You!
Would you be able to, if it isn't to much of a bother, make a map of the WA election?

The Tally Room (http://www.tallyroom.com.au/maps) has Google Maps kmz files that you can import into Google Maps or Google Earth.  I imported the 2017 map into the following link -
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1iz4-E_9ynB-Gu9GVl92bWvFTtX5-wDEy&usp=sharing

Not sure what the deal is with Central Wheatbelt - should be Nationals green.

Thank you so much! That is very helpful.

I've just had a quick flick through and actually your map shows the Notional results for 2013 on the new boundaries. 22 seats changed hands from the notionals, so 22 seats on the map are shown for the wrong party.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Region & Electorate	Swing	Gains
Far North Queensland
Barron River	+1.0 LNP
Cairns	+4.0 LNP	ALP GAIN from IND
Cook	+2.9 ON
Hill	+15.3 KAP
Mulgrave	+0.6 LNP
North Queensland
Burdekin	+2.0 LNP	In Doubt - LNP ahead
Hinchinbrook	+8.4 KAP	In Doubt - KAP ahead
Mundingburra	+0.5 LNP
Thuringowa	+2.0 ON
Townsville	+5.6 LNP	In Doubt - ALP ahead
Traeger	+9.9 KAP
Whitsunday	+0.5 LNP
Central Queensland
Bundaberg	+4.7 LNP	LNP GAIN from ALP
Burnett	+4.5 LNP
Callide	+5.6 ON
Gladstone	+8.1 ALP
Gregory	+3.5 LNP
Hervey Bay	+0.5 ALP
Keppel	+0.1 ALP
Mackay	+1.6 LNP
Maryborough	+1.2 ALP
Mirani	+8.0 ON	ON GAIN from ALP
Rockhampton	+9.3 ON
South West Queensland
Condamine	+7.8 ON
Southern Downs	+6.4 ON
Toowoomba North	+3.4 LNP
Toowoomba South	+0.6 LNP
Warrego	+0.5 ALP
South East Queensland
Sunshine Coast
Buderim	+1.5 LNP	LNP GAIN from ON
Caloundra	+1.0 ALP
Glass House	+1.8 LNP
Gympie	+1.0 LNP
Kawana	+3.0 LNP
Maroochydore	+2.1 ALP
Nanango	+0.8 LNP
Nicklin	+1.7 LNP
Ninderry	+1.1 LNP
Noosa	+18.5 IND	IND GAIN from LNP
Moreton Bay
Bancroft	+2.3 LNP
Ferny Grove	+0.6 LNP
Kurwongbah	+1.0 LNP
Morayfield	+4.1 ON
Murrumba	+3.5 ALP
Pine Rivers	+1.6 ALP
Pumicestone	+0.9 LNP	LNP gain from IND
Redcliffe	+2.5 LNP
Greater Brisbane – Northern
Aspley	+4.3 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Clayfield	+3.8 ALP
Cooper	+7.3 ALP
Everton	+2.9 LNP
McConnel	+5.0 ALP
Nudgee	+5.7 ALP
Sandgate	+3.1 ALP
Stafford	+3.4 ALP
Greater Brisbane – Southern
Algester	+4.7 ALP
Bulimba	+4.1 ALP
Chatsworth	+0.4 ALP
Greenslopes	+5.0 ALP
Inala	+5.6 ALP
Lytton	+3.3 ALP
Maiwar	+5.3 GRN	In Doubt - GRN ahead
Mansfield	+0.9 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Miller	+2.9 ALP
Moggill	+3.2 ALP
Mount Ommaney	+5.0 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
South Brisbane	+9.1 GRN
Stretton	+5.1 ALP
Toohey	+3.9 LNP
Ipswich
Bundamba	+3.9 LNP
Ipswich	+5.5 ON
Ipswich West	+0.0 ON
Logan City
Jordan	+1.0 ALP
Logan	+3.2 ALP
Macalister	+1.9 ALP
Springwood	+2.3 ALP
Waterford	+1.1 ALP
Woodridge	+1.0 ALP
Redland City
Capalaba	+0.8 ALP
Oodgeroo	+1.5 LNP
Redlands	+4.3 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Gold Coast & Scenic Rim
Bonney	+0.7 ALP
Broadwater	+2.4 LNP
Burleigh	+0.1 ALP
Coomera	+2.7 ALP
Currumbin	+2.5 ALP
Gaven	+3.7 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Mermaid Beach	+4.3 ALP
Mudgeeraba	+1.4 ALP
Scenic Rim	+1.6 LNP
Southport	+0.9 ALP
Surfers Paradise	+0.6 ALP
Theodore	+2.0 ALP

[Annatar]

What I find interesting about this election is how despite the fact that the 2 party vote stayed largely the same, there a slight swing to labor, there was such a big difference in movement between Brisbane and the rest of QLD, the Greens gained heavily in Brisbane and the LNP got hammered whereas in the rest of QLD, it was One Nation that gained and the LNP held its own, I don't remember a recent election in QLD where the voting patterns between Brisbane vs the rest of QLD have been so different.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Question: what are the socioeconomic profiles of the different areas of Queensland? The Gold and Sunshine Coasts are full of old people right?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Question: what are the socioeconomic profiles of the different areas of Queensland? The Gold and Sunshine Coasts are full of old people right?

If you want too look for yourself then you can using google earth, instructions at this link http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2033.0.55.001main+features100262011

Altrenatively here is an map of Brisbane

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You can also get SEIFA heat maps from here: http://atlas.id.com.au/. To find SEIFA maps click on what is labeled as population density and you will find a drop-down menu. It is filed under Income and Wellbeing. Use score of Advantage and Disadvantage, not the Disadvantage score, as the Advantage and Disadvantage measures both, meanwhile the Disadvantage score only tells you how much Disadvantage there is. Subtle difference, but difference nonetheless.
The average SEIFA Advantage and Disadvantage for the country is around 1,000, however this isn't exact. The Highest SEFA scores are in the 1250s, meanwhile the lowest scores are in the 100s. The reason for this giant difference is that there are significant portions of the Capitals with SEIFA scores in the 1200s, meanwhile there are a few remote Aboriginal communities with SEIFA scores between the 100s and the 700s.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Question: what are the socioeconomic profiles of the different areas of Queensland? The Gold and Sunshine Coasts are full of old people right?

Yes, the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are mainly affluent retirees, which more than explain their solidity in electing Coalition candidates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I have updated my seat list with swings.

[IceAgeComing]

You put the wrong state up.

No, I couldn't find a statewide map of the new Queensland boundaries, however I remembered that there is no map of the WA election results from this year.

i mean you could make it

I don't know how to make maps, or colour maps, or change images online.

I mean there's this thing called "paint" which is an application that's easy to find, and which makes it easy to colour things in

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Tim Mander must be made of gold to get a swing to him in Everton - Next LNP leader perhaps?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Region & Electorate	Swing	Gains
Far North Queensland
Barron River	+0.3 LNP
Cairns	+4.2 LNP	ALP GAIN from IND
Cook	+2.4 ON
Hill	+15.2 KAP
Mulgrave	+0.5 LNP
North Queensland
Burdekin	+2.1 LNP	In Doubt
Hinchinbrook	+8.5 KAP	In Doubt
Mundingburra	+0.4 LNP
Thuringowa	+2.0 ON
Townsville	+5.8 LNP	In Doubt
Traeger	+9.4 KAP
Whitsunday	+0.7 LNP
Central Queensland
Bundaberg	+4.5 LNP	LNP GAIN from LAB
Burnett	+4.6 LNP
Callide	+6.8 ON
Gladstone	+8.2 ALP
Gregory	+3.3 LNP
Hervey Bay	+0.6 ALP
Keppel	+0.2 ALP
Mackay	+1.6 LNP
Maryborough	+2.8 ALP
Mirani	+7.8 ON	ON GAIN from LAB
Rockhampton	+18.4 IND	In Doubt
South West Queensland
Condamine	+7.8 ON
Southern Downs	+6.3 ON
Toowoomba North	+3.3 LNP
Toowoomba South	+0.3 ALP
Warrego	+0.9 ALP
South East Queensland
Sunshine Coast
Buderim	+1.7 LNP	LNP GAIN from ON
Caloundra	+0.6 ALP
Glass House	+1.8 LNP
Gympie	+1.1 LNP
Kawana	+3.0 LNP
Maroochydore	+1.9 ALP
Nanango	+1.0 LNP
Nicklin	+1.7 LNP
Ninderry	+1.3 LNP
Noosa	+18.2 IND	IND GAIN from LNP
Moreton Bay
Bancroft	+2.1 LNP
Ferny Grove	+0.6 LNP
Kurwongbah	+0.5 LNP
Morayfield	+3.6 ON
Murrumba	+3.9 ALP
Pine Rivers	+2.1 ALP
Pumicestone	+0.8 LNP	In Doubt
Redcliffe	+2.6 LNP
Greater Brisbane – Northern
Aspley	+3.9 ALP	In Doubt
Clayfield	+3.9 ALP
Cooper	+7.1 ALP
Everton	+3.2 LNP
McConnel	+5.1 ALP
Nudgee	+6.0 ALP
Sandgate	+3.6 ALP
Stafford	+3.6 ALP
Greater Brisbane – Southern
Algester	+5.0 ALP
Bulimba	+4.6 ALP
Chatsworth	+0.7 ALP
Greenslopes	+4.9 ALP
Inala	+6.0 ALP
Lytton	+3.5 ALP
Maiwar	+5.0 ALP	In Doubt
Mansfield	+0.8 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Miller	+3.0 ALP
Moggill	+2.9 ALP
Mount Ommaney	+5.0 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
South Brisbane	+9.2 GRN
Stretton	+5.3 ALP
Toohey	+3.4 LNP
Ipswich
Bundamba	+3.5 LNP
Ipswich	+5.1 ON
Ipswich West	+0.1 ALP
Logan City
Jordan	+1.4 ALP
Logan	+3.3 ALP
Macalister	+1.8 ALP
Springwood	+2.5 ALP
Waterford	+1.4 ALP
Woodridge	+1.6 ALP
Redland City
Capalaba	+0.9 ALP
Oodgeroo	+1.6 LNP
Redlands	+4.9 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Gold Coast & Scenic Rim
Bonney	+1.3 ALP	In Doubt
Broadwater	+1.7 LNP
Burleigh	+0.2 LNP
Coomera	+2.6 ALP
Currumbin	+3.0 ALP
Gaven	+3.6 ALP	In Doubt
Mermaid Beach	+4.2 ALP
Mudgeeraba	+1.2 ALP
Scenic Rim	+1.9 LNP
Southport	+1.4 ALP
Surfers Paradise	+0.6 ALP
Theodore	+2.4 ALP

Updated with yesterdays figures

[MaxQue]

Tim Mander must be made of gold to get a swing to him in Everton - Next LNP leader perhaps?

He ran last time and finished 3rd of 3.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tim Mander must be made of gold to get a swing to him in Everton - Next LNP leader perhaps?

Nah, the last two LNP leaders have been Brisbane Liberals, and neither achieved long-term success, and in my opinion the size of the landslide in 2012 was solely due to Metro Brisbane being OK with a Liberal, compared to a National. I'm putting my money on a National getting the leadership, because I think that the Libs have had their go and now it's the nats turn.