Queensland State Election- November 25, 2017

[Talleyrand]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/29/annastacia-palaszczuk-snap-queensland-election

Parliament is set to be dissolved Sunday.

Look for the LNP to return to power.

[Lachi]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/29/annastacia-palaszczuk-snap-queensland-election

Parliament is set to be dissolved Sunday.

Look for the LNP to return to power.

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/10/29/queensland-election-guide-3/#comment-2669375

A good comment about why we shouldn't be calling DOA yet.

[IceAgeComing]

The last few polls generally have the ALP leading the LNP on the primary vote by a few points; One Nation between 15% and 20%: and the two-party preferred number (as useless a stat as that is when you have a small party polling near a fifth of the vote) is generally close.  Historically One Nation's preferences have never really gone anywhere that strongly; certainly nowhere near as strongly as Green preferences have gone to the ALP (something like 85% of Greens votes flow to Labor in Compulsory Preferential Voting, the One Nation number to the LNP is a lot lower).

One big difference between this election and the last one (and also 1998, for what its worth) is that this election is the first since Compulsory Preferential Voting was reintroduced - basically from 1992 (I *think*) and 2015 voters could elect to number as many candidates as they wished: they could only preference one and let their vote exhaust while now they have to number every candidate for their vote to count.  When the ALP government introduced this it was seen as a politically motivated attempt to change the voting system in their favour (before the One Nation surge the Greens were the only major third party, and a big factor in the 2012 LNP landslide was a lot of Greens voters electing to not preference Labor and let their vote exhaust while in 2015 they started preferencing the ALP at normal levels again) while now because there's this huge One Nation share no one really knows who benefits - other than One Nation.  Antony Green (who's ABC elections blog is very good and basically where I get my knowledge of Australian elections from) suggests that the ALP benefitted from optional preferences before 2006 when One Nation and their various splitter groups were around getting small vote shares that would have been enough to give the LNP a few more seats had less of their voters exhausted their votes; and after then was when the situation in the rest of Australia - namely the Greens being the biggest third group - became a thing in Queensland.

The issue that the LNP have though is that they rely in a fair few places on a number of voters who really don't like One Nation - it ought to be remembered that One Nation are more akin to, say, the Front National or more disreputable far right groups than some populist rights movements in Europe and historically the perception that the Coalition has cut a deal with One Nation has tended to hurt them in elections.  The most recent historical example of this was in Western Australia earlier this year: the Liberal Party, in a last-ditch effort to save their government, agreed a deal with One Nation that basically involved the Liberals putting One Nation higher in both their how-to-vote cards and Group Voting Tickets than either Labor or the Nationals (the coalition doesn't exist in WA in the same way that it does in almost every other state in that the two parties are separate parties rather than effectively being different names for the same force that never work independently) provided that One Nation did the same: the idea being that they'd get the 5% or whatever One Nation got in the lower house seats: One Nation would get eliminated in lower house seats so Liberal votes would never end up there anyway and, hey, the polling suggested that they'd probably win Upper House seats anyway so us giving them the remnants of our vote won't change anything.  The political impact of this was that it didn't work: a bunch of local One Nation candidates either resigned their candidacy (although remained on the ballot since the deal was made after nominations closed) or refused to distribute the how to vote cards which preferenced the Liberals number 2 (which had a noticeable impact on how One Nation votes transferred, which shows the power of trying to organise preference flows): it alienated more liberal, eh, liberals who really didn't like One Nation and hated the idea of working with them and the result was the Labor Party winning the biggest majority government in the history of Western Australia - traditionally a very conservative state.

Now Queensland is very different to WA in that One Nation has historically been stronger there (in 1998 they won 12 seats and got 22% of the primary vote) and the whole LNP/One Nation deal was done before (in 1998: where the ALP formed a minority government after the election supported by an independent) so it might be seen as less shocking if they do it but I don't know.  However compulsory preferential voting forces them to make a choice between either preferencing One Nation above Labor or vice versa and both would be decisions that would annoy someone - the former might cause the same issues that we've seen before and is generally seen as being a bad strategy; however in the latter One Nation would naturally be furious and they'd not be overly willing to give their votes to the LNP afterwards.  With optional preferential voting they could have simply done the "Just vote 1 LNP" thing and kicked the can down the road but they can't do that anymore and that's an issue for the party.  Its not an issue that really anyone else has - the ALP has tended to put One Nation last everywhere and that's generally what the party think is the right thing; as have the Greens and god knows what the Katter party will do although I assume that they'll only really be relevant in the seats that they currently hold.  Perhaps someone who knows more about Queensland political geography could cover things in more detail?

There's also been a redistribution: the new house will be 93 seats rather than 89.  The partisan affect of that is simple: ALP have a net gain of four to notionally be defending 48; LNP 42, KAP 2, and one Independent.  The re-emergence of One Nation makes it all but pointless to look at what TPP swing the LNP would need to win a majority; since the impact that they will have dramatically changes the map (for what its worth; they'd need to gain five seats to win an overall majority of 1 and a uniform swing of 1.4% would give them that).

[Lachi]

I mean, notionally, KAP currently hold Traeger and hve an MLA in Hill, but look set to lose it.

Traeger is centered around Mount Isa, and is the heart of all KAP support. Their notional 2PP margin is 16.4%. They will NEVER lose this seat, unless the party decides to dissolve, or collapses, and the fact of Robbie Katter's personal brand in the area, along with Bob Katter's federal brand being there too.

Hill is another story, they currently have their second MLA in that seat, however, it is a notionally marginal LNP seat. Unless the KAP manage to somehow increase their vote share, which I think is highly unlikely, they will lose this seat at the electio.

[Lachi]

Greens want to create 4 new public holidays:

One for the day before the third game of the State of Origin (GO MAROONS!!!)
NAIDOC Family Day
International Womens Day
National Parks

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2017/queensland-election-2017-greens-woo-voters-with-four-new-public-holidays/news-story/79ceb5ef430babd7b5944882fd218dc9

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Election day tomorrow, Labor is definitely favoured to hold on, though it could most certainly go either way. It looks like there will be a swing to the LNP in the country, however it looks like this will be cancelled out by a swing towards Labor in SEQ (South East Queensland). One Nation will almost certainly gain at least a few seats in the country, mainly in the North, meaning a hung parliament is possible. The Greens vote will definitely rise, and they might get close in the 3 central Brisbane. South Brisbane (Brisbane's South bank, including the Gabba (the Brisbane Cricket Ground)) is definitely their best chance, with polling showing them close. Their other two chances, both far more unlikely, are McConnell (formerly Brisbane Central, covers the CBD) and Maiwar (comprising of Indoorpilly and half of the abolished Mount Coot-tha). The increase in the Greens vote is due to the Adani coal mine in the Galilee Basin, which is supported by both the LNP, as you would expect, and Labor, which has enraged their inner-city liberals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Election night, despite the tragedy of Antony Green's malfunctioning touchscreen, is so very exhilarating. Looks increasingly like Annastacia Palaszczuk (pronounced Pala-Shay) is back in, and, as I predicted, Labor is getting a good swing in SEQ, more than compensating for the swing against them in the country. One Nation's performance is (thankfully) leaving a lot to be desired. Massively underperforming the hype. Greens might get a seat, though doesn't look that likely as LNP voters are following the how-to-vote and are putting Labor above the Greens. Their best chance is Maiwar. Although this might sound strange the difference is in Maiwar, where Labor and the Greens are tied at second, and whoever gets on top will certainly beat the LNP incumbent. In the other two I mentioned McConnel is a three-way battle, however the only way that the Greens win there is if Labor falls to third, which doesn't look that likely, though could still definitely happen. And in South Brisbane, where the Greens are performing the best, as expected, on first preferences, it is a certain Labor-Green count. The problem is that Labor and the Greens are practically tied at current, and with the LNP recommending preferences to Labor, and their voters following, the Greens will almost certainly lose, unless the remaining booths are very strong for them.
The big problem for Antony Green, and the story of this election, as it was in 1998, is that in so many seats we don't know who is in the top two, making predicting many seats very difficult.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The ABC computer has suddenly moved the seat counts a good deal closer, and unsurprisingly Labor has suddenly pushed back Palaszczuk's appearance from "imminent" to "soon". However even with this development the LNP will certainly not get a majority, best case scenario is LNP-KAP coalition, however it is far more likely that One Nation will, unfortunately, be have to be included.

[Lachi]

This election just doesn't feel right with a broken touchscreen...

Also, the ABC website is surprisingly useless right now, seeing how glitchy it is.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This election just doesn't feel right with a broken touchscreen...

Also, the ABC website is surprisingly useless right now, seeing how glitchy it is.

The glitches aren't their fault, indeed any election results page using this elections figures will either be ridiculously inaccurate or horribly glitchy, and ABC have chosen the second path. The problem, as I said is that you've got three-way, in a few cases four-way, battles to get into the top two, and that is causing a lot of problems as expected.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Looking better for Labor, majority looks more likely than not. Greens only chance is Maiwar, which involves getting ahead of Labor for second place, they're currently 0.65 percent, or 165 votes, behind Labor on first preferences.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Annastacia Palaszczuk speaking now, first remarks were (paraphrased) election won't be won tonight, confident of majority government, Queenslanders aren't red or blue they're maroon, no deals with One Nation, majority rejected deal with One Nation

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Currently thanking campaign managers, cabinet members, MPs, unions, long-term Liberals who voted first time Labor, and, of-course, family

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hoping for stable government and speech is over. This speech is remarkably short.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Canavan is now talking BS about coalition with Greens to sell Queenslanders down the river, despite the fact that they're probably not going to be in parliament. Good god I hate Matt Canavan

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'm posting now as we had to go out for dinner as a family, still irritated that I missed most of it. Will have to re watch tomorrow

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'm not going to post again about Canavan, he's just boiling my blood too much, currently saying how Labor is treating One Nation voters as "Deplorables"

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tim Nicholls is probably out, I'd place my money on the LNP ending the Liberal experiment and returning to their National roots. The urban Liberal approach under Newman gave them a giant landslide in 2012, however none of it lasted, and it all evaporated in 2015. I think that if they had kept Springborg, although they would have certainly done worse in Brisbane, they would have far better staved of One Nation.
I think the LNP, will decide that a return to the country will need to be at least trialled, because it is obvious that the Urban strategy of the Liberal wing has, at least for the moment, failed.
Alternatively the LNP experiment might end and the Libs and Nats go back to being separate parties (until (if?) Labor decides to bring back optional preferencing and Vote 1) I think that separation might work better, with the voters deciding which wing gets to be Leader. Though the two parties should most certainly not go back to the end of the Bjelke-Petersen era, with them competing against another rather than keeping their fights inside the protection of the Coalition.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tim Nicholls is being far too happy. He is being silly in claiming that Labor definitely hasn't got a majority, and that will almost certainly become a bit of an egg on his face.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If you want a laugh then watch this absolute train-wreck of a presser by Ian Walker, the Shadow Attorney General https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/when-political-press-conferences-go-bad-ian-walkers-train-wreck-20160531-gp8juh.html

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tim Nicholls method of distracting everyone from the fact that he wants a coalition with One Nation is interesting. He is talking about how Labor promised no deals with anyone, and that it is all the corrupt unions fault.
And now, even more hilariously he is talking about how One Nation is causing LNP members to lose their seats to Labor. And now he is talking about his supposedly "Positive" campaign.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If you wanted to understand what life under Bjelke-Petersen was like well here is the only attack ad against Labor in '89 (the year they lost power). It gives you an idea of the idiosyncratic Small-Government Authoritarianism that sounds impossible but was implemented by them between 1957 and 1989. In a lot of ways he was a sort of Aussie Hitler.
Remember he proposed, multiple times to drill for oil on the Great Barrier Reef
Seriously if you have spare time then research him, I guarantee you you'll find it an extremely interesting and slightly entertaining, in a dark sort of way, use of time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKTq8WEc1oo

[IceAgeComing]

I'm pretty sure that the ALP get a majority when all of the votes are counted; the ABC currently has 43 ALP, 38 LNP, 2 Katter and 10 undecided: one of the undecided seats (Macalister) is one where there's an independent in third that might go into second and who the other parties all preferences above Labor but I think that its incredibly unlikely that they win.  When you look at the other seats in doubt you have to think that the ALP win Cook (on 39.3% with the Greens on 8.4%; the remaining vote is split equally between Katter, LNP and One Nation and that strikes me as something that might leak some preferences to Labor) and are currently leading in Gaven, Pumicestone and Thuringowa and are competitive in lots of the other seats.  Add in the fact that Maiwar is effectively a Labor/Green contest (LNP leading, but whoever finishes second eliminates the other and the LNP don't have enough votes to prevent preferences electing that person) and that Rockhampton is a contest between the ALP and an Independent who seeked Labor pre-selection and it looks hard for the LNP to form a government.

Katter hold their two seats and will probably win Hinchinbrook which is a bit of a mess (the highest candidate is the LNP on 29.2%; and the ALP and One Nation preference Katter above them); the Greens like I said above have a shot in Maiwar although not in the Brisbane seat that they were targeting; there's the Independent likely to win Rockhampton (which the ALP held in 2012, which should tell you how safe it usually is); there'll be another Independent in Noosa (don't know exactly what they are like, they preferenced the Greens and the ALP above the LNP and put One Nation last for what that's worth).

One Nation were really hurt by the ALPs decision to put them last everywhere and the LNPs decision to not always rank them above Labor, a fair few LNP candidates have needed Labor preferences to win and any LNP->One Nation flow is comparatively weak.  They will probably win Mirani but again its tight and if LNP preferences end up being very weak, Labor may well hold onto that seat.  They haven't a chance anywhere else; their leader lost their seat pretty conclusively; and the one that everyone thought that they might do well in (Maryborough; elected One Nation in 1998; voted for an Independents between 2001-2012 and had strong Independent and PUP votes in 2015) actually swung towards the ALP.  Basically its a mess - my hunch is a slight Labor majority; but it'll be close enough for them that they should be able to govern pretty easily even if it is a small minority.

At this point I'd say that its clearly at least 45 ALP; 38 LNP, 2 Katter, 2 Independents with one seat being Labor/Green (Greens currently in front), one being Labor/One Nation (One Nation leading) and a third being Labor/LNP (basically 50/50).  The ALP can probably get to 48 but no more (47 is the majority); perhaps 49 if Maryborough early/postal votes go in favour of them against the Independent.  Basically its a mess; but an ALP friendly mess.

[Kantakouzenos]

Does anyone have a paint friendly map of the current electoral districts?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Does anyone have a paint friendly map of the current electoral districts?

I don't know, however if you could make a map of this years WA election, that would be much appreciated. Here are some maps of the new electorates from Wikipedia.