Queensland State Election- November 25, 2017

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Election day tomorrow, Labor is definitely favoured to hold on, though it could most certainly go either way. It looks like there will be a swing to the LNP in the country, however it looks like this will be cancelled out by a swing towards Labor in SEQ (South East Queensland). One Nation will almost certainly gain at least a few seats in the country, mainly in the North, meaning a hung parliament is possible. The Greens vote will definitely rise, and they might get close in the 3 central Brisbane. South Brisbane (Brisbane's South bank, including the Gabba (the Brisbane Cricket Ground)) is definitely their best chance, with polling showing them close. Their other two chances, both far more unlikely, are McConnell (formerly Brisbane Central, covers the CBD) and Maiwar (comprising of Indoorpilly and half of the abolished Mount Coot-tha). The increase in the Greens vote is due to the Adani coal mine in the Galilee Basin, which is supported by both the LNP, as you would expect, and Labor, which has enraged their inner-city liberals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Election night, despite the tragedy of Antony Green's malfunctioning touchscreen, is so very exhilarating. Looks increasingly like Annastacia Palaszczuk (pronounced Pala-Shay) is back in, and, as I predicted, Labor is getting a good swing in SEQ, more than compensating for the swing against them in the country. One Nation's performance is (thankfully) leaving a lot to be desired. Massively underperforming the hype. Greens might get a seat, though doesn't look that likely as LNP voters are following the how-to-vote and are putting Labor above the Greens. Their best chance is Maiwar. Although this might sound strange the difference is in Maiwar, where Labor and the Greens are tied at second, and whoever gets on top will certainly beat the LNP incumbent. In the other two I mentioned McConnel is a three-way battle, however the only way that the Greens win there is if Labor falls to third, which doesn't look that likely, though could still definitely happen. And in South Brisbane, where the Greens are performing the best, as expected, on first preferences, it is a certain Labor-Green count. The problem is that Labor and the Greens are practically tied at current, and with the LNP recommending preferences to Labor, and their voters following, the Greens will almost certainly lose, unless the remaining booths are very strong for them.
The big problem for Antony Green, and the story of this election, as it was in 1998, is that in so many seats we don't know who is in the top two, making predicting many seats very difficult.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The ABC computer has suddenly moved the seat counts a good deal closer, and unsurprisingly Labor has suddenly pushed back Palaszczuk's appearance from "imminent" to "soon". However even with this development the LNP will certainly not get a majority, best case scenario is LNP-KAP coalition, however it is far more likely that One Nation will, unfortunately, be have to be included.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This election just doesn't feel right with a broken touchscreen...

Also, the ABC website is surprisingly useless right now, seeing how glitchy it is.

The glitches aren't their fault, indeed any election results page using this elections figures will either be ridiculously inaccurate or horribly glitchy, and ABC have chosen the second path. The problem, as I said is that you've got three-way, in a few cases four-way, battles to get into the top two, and that is causing a lot of problems as expected.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Looking better for Labor, majority looks more likely than not. Greens only chance is Maiwar, which involves getting ahead of Labor for second place, they're currently 0.65 percent, or 165 votes, behind Labor on first preferences.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Annastacia Palaszczuk speaking now, first remarks were (paraphrased) election won't be won tonight, confident of majority government, Queenslanders aren't red or blue they're maroon, no deals with One Nation, majority rejected deal with One Nation

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Currently thanking campaign managers, cabinet members, MPs, unions, long-term Liberals who voted first time Labor, and, of-course, family

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hoping for stable government and speech is over. This speech is remarkably short.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Canavan is now talking BS about coalition with Greens to sell Queenslanders down the river, despite the fact that they're probably not going to be in parliament. Good god I hate Matt Canavan

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'm posting now as we had to go out for dinner as a family, still irritated that I missed most of it. Will have to re watch tomorrow

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'm not going to post again about Canavan, he's just boiling my blood too much, currently saying how Labor is treating One Nation voters as "Deplorables"

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tim Nicholls is probably out, I'd place my money on the LNP ending the Liberal experiment and returning to their National roots. The urban Liberal approach under Newman gave them a giant landslide in 2012, however none of it lasted, and it all evaporated in 2015. I think that if they had kept Springborg, although they would have certainly done worse in Brisbane, they would have far better staved of One Nation.
I think the LNP, will decide that a return to the country will need to be at least trialled, because it is obvious that the Urban strategy of the Liberal wing has, at least for the moment, failed.
Alternatively the LNP experiment might end and the Libs and Nats go back to being separate parties (until (if?) Labor decides to bring back optional preferencing and Vote 1) I think that separation might work better, with the voters deciding which wing gets to be Leader. Though the two parties should most certainly not go back to the end of the Bjelke-Petersen era, with them competing against another rather than keeping their fights inside the protection of the Coalition.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tim Nicholls is being far too happy. He is being silly in claiming that Labor definitely hasn't got a majority, and that will almost certainly become a bit of an egg on his face.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If you want a laugh then watch this absolute train-wreck of a presser by Ian Walker, the Shadow Attorney General https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/when-political-press-conferences-go-bad-ian-walkers-train-wreck-20160531-gp8juh.html

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tim Nicholls method of distracting everyone from the fact that he wants a coalition with One Nation is interesting. He is talking about how Labor promised no deals with anyone, and that it is all the corrupt unions fault.
And now, even more hilariously he is talking about how One Nation is causing LNP members to lose their seats to Labor. And now he is talking about his supposedly "Positive" campaign.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If you wanted to understand what life under Bjelke-Petersen was like well here is the only attack ad against Labor in '89 (the year they lost power). It gives you an idea of the idiosyncratic Small-Government Authoritarianism that sounds impossible but was implemented by them between 1957 and 1989. In a lot of ways he was a sort of Aussie Hitler.
Remember he proposed, multiple times to drill for oil on the Great Barrier Reef
Seriously if you have spare time then research him, I guarantee you you'll find it an extremely interesting and slightly entertaining, in a dark sort of way, use of time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKTq8WEc1oo

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Does anyone have a paint friendly map of the current electoral districts?

I don't know, however if you could make a map of this years WA election, that would be much appreciated. Here are some maps of the new electorates from Wikipedia.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Does anyone have a paint friendly map of the current electoral districts?

No, because the redistribution has just finished.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You put the wrong state up.

No, I couldn't find a statewide map of the new Queensland boundaries, however I remembered that there is no map of the WA election results from this year.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I made a map with current ABC projections:

Thank You!
Would you be able to, if it isn't to much of a bother, make a map of the WA election?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You put the wrong state up.

No, I couldn't find a statewide map of the new Queensland boundaries, however I remembered that there is no map of the WA election results from this year.

i mean you could make it

I don't know how to make maps, or colour maps, or change images online.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

One Nation's only chance of a seat is Mirani, where they are currently ahead. Looks like the Greens will win Maiwar, they are currently 0.7 ahead of Labor for second place.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Thank You!
Would you be able to, if it isn't to much of a bother, make a map of the WA election?

The Tally Room (http://www.tallyroom.com.au/maps) has Google Maps kmz files that you can import into Google Maps or Google Earth.  I imported the 2017 map into the following link -
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1iz4-E_9ynB-Gu9GVl92bWvFTtX5-wDEy&usp=sharing

Not sure what the deal is with Central Wheatbelt - should be Nationals green.

Thank you so much! That is very helpful.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

BREAKING NEWS:
Antony Green is predicting Labor will win the Queensland election with 48 seats

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor is currently predicted to have 48 seats, one more than needed for a majority. Even if they fall below here the Greens are currently predicted to win Maiwar, giving Labor one extra vote.