Which Hillary states would Rubio have won?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:19:36 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Which Hillary states would Rubio have won?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4
Author Topic: Which Hillary states would Rubio have won?  (Read 8797 times)
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,669


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: October 29, 2017, 09:49:18 PM »

This idea that Trump wasn't SIGNIFICANTLY weaker than Generic R is ridiculous (and Rubio does better than Generic R).  I say he only loses California, Washington, Hawaii, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts, and DC.  New York and Rhode Island are very close either way.



Rubio/Haley: 411 EV, 55.4% PV

Clinton/Kaine: 127 EV, 43.3% PV
Logged
uti2
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,495


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: October 29, 2017, 09:51:52 PM »

^It would actually be entirely logically consistent if one goes by the premise that Trump is 'such a weak candidate' that Jeb Bush wins FL without Trump in the race.

If, after all, Trump is so weak and only won due to 'free media',why wouldn't Jeb be able to do it? He had all the money to spend in media dollars, Trump only didn't need to do that due to his free media. Trump was basically a tabloid sub-genre story for the media, without Trump they would have gone back to missing planes and the usual routine.
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: November 01, 2017, 01:12:26 PM »

This idea that Trump wasn't SIGNIFICANTLY weaker than Generic R is ridiculous (and Rubio does better than Generic R).  I say he only loses California, Washington, Hawaii, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts, and DC.  New York and Rhode Island are very close either way.



Rubio/Haley: 411 EV, 55.4% PV

Clinton/Kaine: 127 EV, 43.3% PV

Lmao this map is pure fantasy. Rubio is and was an empty suit.
Logged
The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: November 01, 2017, 05:13:26 PM »

I don't see him winning any, but there's a decent chance he could've won NH/NV/MN.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: November 01, 2017, 05:19:50 PM »

None.

Let's just accept Trump was the GOP's best option in 2016 to win for a number of reasons.
Logged
Dr. MB
MB
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,813
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: November 03, 2017, 01:22:27 PM »

He would've had a better shot to win Nevada and Colorado. Would also outperform Trump in both Arizona and New Mexico. I think it would've looked similar to the Bush 2004 map, minus New Mexico.
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,319
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: November 03, 2017, 03:52:48 PM »

None.

Let's just accept Trump was the GOP's best option in 2016 to win for a number of reasons.
Logged
RFayette
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,952
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: November 03, 2017, 05:19:04 PM »

Possibly Virginia, but I think Rubio would have struggled badly in the debates and wouldn't have done much (if at all) better than Trump on net.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,067


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: November 03, 2017, 10:23:53 PM »

Possibly Virginia, but I think Rubio would have struggled badly in the debates and wouldn't have done much (if at all) better than Trump on net.

He would have done much better than Trump, who was crushed in the debates by Clinton.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: November 03, 2017, 10:28:37 PM »

Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado

Loses Michigan, wins Iowa and Ohio by much smaller margins.
Logged
uti2
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,495


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: November 04, 2017, 02:36:22 AM »

Possibly Virginia, but I think Rubio would have struggled badly in the debates and wouldn't have done much (if at all) better than Trump on net.

He would have done much better than Trump, who was crushed in the debates by Clinton.

How substantive were those debates?

What kind of issues do you think a normal republican would have discussed? They would've discussed privatizing SS/Medicare, praising Free Trade reforms even more aggressive than the TPP, and in Rubio's case, he would have made a specific argument for regime in Iran while also discussing his failure to deal with immigration while simultaneously being forced to defend the same GOP Congress that blocked his bill? He would've used the same anecdotes over and over again, so you would be able to anticipate his statements well in advance.

Or how about the fact that his tax plan would cut tax rates for Romney & The Koch Brothers to zero (his plan called for 0 capital gains/dividends taxes)? All of these policies are supposed to make Democrats apathetic?

If you believe fundamentally the US is a far-right country, then sure, it would be logical to believe that platform is electable, but otherwise, he was running the most radical conservative campaign policy-wise since Goldwater, he wasn't that different from Cruz in policy.

But the idea that you can elect someone with those policies and then expect a 'Liberal Progressive' wave to take place in 2020 or 2024 is a bit of a joke. Contrasts like that don't happen in terms of how electoral coalitions evolve. Both Hoover and Carter actually adopted many reformist principles their own parties opposed. Bush in 2000 fundamentally ran a centrist-y Kasich style campaign.

Let's put it this way, Sanders-ism would've died even before it even remotely would have had a plausible chance.
Logged
uti2
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,495


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: November 04, 2017, 02:46:32 AM »

^I can't stress this point enough. You can't go from a platform advocating for 0% taxes on the Koch Brothers' earnings to a platform advocating for 70% in the next term. That's not how it works.

These assumptions can only work if you assume Dems moving to the right, which moderate Dems would've had to be if they were willing to elect someone with such sharp right-wing policies to begin with.
Logged
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,391
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: November 08, 2017, 12:19:58 PM »

Why would Rubio win New Hampshire?
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: November 08, 2017, 12:36:35 PM »

I think he could have narrowly won MN, but any other states? No. That said, he would have won all the Trump states except maybe MI.

I agree with this.  I think Rubio had an outside chance at Nevada, too.  For fun, I think Kasich could have pulled this map against Clinton:



Optimistic, but I think Hillary was a prettyyyyyyy bad candidate, and Kasich was a good one.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: November 08, 2017, 04:06:02 PM »

I think he could have narrowly won MN, but any other states? No. That said, he would have won all the Trump states except maybe MI.

I agree with this.  I think Rubio had an outside chance at Nevada, too.  For fun, I think Kasich could have pulled this map against Clinton:



Optimistic, but I think Hillary was a prettyyyyyyy bad candidate, and Kasich was a good one.

I think Kasich also gets VA by 1%.  He would do better than Romney in Fairfax.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: November 09, 2017, 01:41:41 PM »



Rubio or Pence should be the 2020 nominee (This is a rubio map not a pence map)
Logged
Pennsylvania Deplorable
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: November 11, 2017, 05:27:18 PM »

Most likely, none. Possibly Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. Rubio almost certainly would not have replicated Trump's success across the Midwest and PA.

People here are acting like Rubio would do better because he's a "moderate" but that is a dubious assertion. Rubio is a Koch brothers guy through and through on every economic issue. Trump held strong capitalist views as well, but he mixed in populism with a willingness to get the government more involved in infrastructure and protecting fighting outsourcing. Rubio supports an outright ban on abortion WITH NO EXCEPTIONS, a position that the overwhelming majority of Americans reject. Especially running against a woman, that would have been a recipe for disaster. According to every exit poll, Trump had his best performance among voters who listed immigration as their top concern. Rubio would not have gotten that. If anything, his gang of 8 amnesty bill (written in his first term after he swore he was against amnesty in 2010), would have dampened conservative and right wing populist turnout for him.

I think the most realistic Rubio vs Clinton race sees him winning all of the Romney states + Florida.
Logged
Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 769
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: November 11, 2017, 06:54:05 PM »

Most likely, none. Possibly Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. Rubio almost certainly would not have replicated Trump's success across the Midwest and PA.

People here are acting like Rubio would do better because he's a "moderate" but that is a dubious assertion. Rubio is a Koch brothers guy through and through on every economic issue. Trump held strong capitalist views as well, but he mixed in populism with a willingness to get the government more involved in infrastructure and protecting fighting outsourcing. Rubio supports an outright ban on abortion WITH NO EXCEPTIONS, a position that the overwhelming majority of Americans reject. Especially running against a woman, that would have been a recipe for disaster. According to every exit poll, Trump had his best performance among voters who listed immigration as their top concern. Rubio would not have gotten that. If anything, his gang of 8 amnesty bill (written in his first term after he swore he was against amnesty in 2010), would have dampened conservative and right wing populist turnout for him.

I think the most realistic Rubio vs Clinton race sees him winning all of the Romney states + Florida.


Rubio is certainly more conservative than Trump, no doubt. But likability matters, and he had it in spades. All the head-to-head polls showed Rubio beating Hillary. Rubio would have done better than Trump with latinos and college whites. Hillary lost because she could not turn out the Obama coalition. Trump received fewer votes in WI than Romney, fewer votes in MI and OH than Bush 04.

Logged
Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 769
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: November 11, 2017, 07:04:42 PM »

Most likely, none. Possibly Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. Rubio almost certainly would not have replicated Trump's success across the Midwest and PA.

People here are acting like Rubio would do better because he's a "moderate" but that is a dubious assertion. Rubio is a Koch brothers guy through and through on every economic issue. Trump held strong capitalist views as well, but he mixed in populism with a willingness to get the government more involved in infrastructure and protecting fighting outsourcing. Rubio supports an outright ban on abortion WITH NO EXCEPTIONS, a position that the overwhelming majority of Americans reject. Especially running against a woman, that would have been a recipe for disaster. According to every exit poll, Trump had his best performance among voters who listed immigration as their top concern. Rubio would not have gotten that. If anything, his gang of 8 amnesty bill (written in his first term after he swore he was against amnesty in 2010), would have dampened conservative and right wing populist turnout for him.

I think the most realistic Rubio vs Clinton race sees him winning all of the Romney states + Florida.

Logged
Pennsylvania Deplorable
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: November 11, 2017, 08:40:31 PM »

Most likely, none. Possibly Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. Rubio almost certainly would not have replicated Trump's success across the Midwest and PA.

People here are acting like Rubio would do better because he's a "moderate" but that is a dubious assertion. Rubio is a Koch brothers guy through and through on every economic issue. Trump held strong capitalist views as well, but he mixed in populism with a willingness to get the government more involved in infrastructure and protecting fighting outsourcing. Rubio supports an outright ban on abortion WITH NO EXCEPTIONS, a position that the overwhelming majority of Americans reject. Especially running against a woman, that would have been a recipe for disaster. According to every exit poll, Trump had his best performance among voters who listed immigration as their top concern. Rubio would not have gotten that. If anything, his gang of 8 amnesty bill (written in his first term after he swore he was against amnesty in 2010), would have dampened conservative and right wing populist turnout for him.

I think the most realistic Rubio vs Clinton race sees him winning all of the Romney states + Florida.


Rubio is certainly more conservative than Trump, no doubt. But likability matters, and he had it in spades. All the head-to-head polls showed Rubio beating Hillary. Rubio would have done better than Trump with latinos and college whites. Hillary lost because she could not turn out the Obama coalition. Trump received fewer votes in WI than Romney, fewer votes in MI and OH than Bush 04.


That would be true if we assume Rubio's likability wouldn't have taken a hit if he was the target of an all out media onslaught for months leading up to the general election. They were happy to give him favorable coverage when he was attacking Trump. It would not have lasted. Especially on social issues.
Rubio also loses his charm under pressure (ex: robotically repeating the same talking point three times when Christie attacked him in the debate before the NH primary). He's a very good speaker, but only when scripted. Perhaps that would have been enough against Clinton, who was also scripted, but it's hard for me to say the guy who only won one county in his home state's primary would be a slam dunk in the general, regardless of hypothetical polling.
Logged
Statilius the Epicurean
Thersites
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,596
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: November 16, 2017, 10:18:45 PM »

People here are acting like Rubio would do better because he's a "moderate" but that is a dubious assertion.

Rubio would do better because he was a candidate not crippled by scandal and hated by the majority of the US electorate.

Literally all Rubio would have to do to win comfortably is say "emails" every 15 seconds and unlike with Trump Clinton would have no counter.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,067


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: November 16, 2017, 11:15:01 PM »

People here are acting like Rubio would do better because he's a "moderate" but that is a dubious assertion.

Rubio would do better because he was a candidate not crippled by scandal and hated by the majority of the US electorate.

Literally all Rubio would have to do to win comfortably is say "emails" every 15 seconds and unlike with Trump Clinton would have no counter.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: November 16, 2017, 11:55:45 PM »

People here are acting like Rubio would do better because he's a "moderate" but that is a dubious assertion.

Rubio would do better because he was a candidate not crippled by scandal and hated by the majority of the US electorate.

Literally all Rubio would have to do to win comfortably is say "emails" every 15 seconds and unlike with Trump Clinton would have no counter.

Rubio would figure out a way to flub it, at least Trump could be like "well at least I admit it".

Same way Dukakis somehow didn't manage to beat H.W. by bashing Iran-Contra over the head.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: November 17, 2017, 12:10:41 AM »

People here are acting like Rubio would do better because he's a "moderate" but that is a dubious assertion.

Rubio would do better because he was a candidate not crippled by scandal and hated by the majority of the US electorate.

Literally all Rubio would have to do to win comfortably is say "emails" every 15 seconds and unlike with Trump Clinton would have no counter.

Rubio would figure out a way to flub it, at least Trump could be like "well at least I admit it".

Same way Dukakis somehow didn't manage to beat H.W. by bashing Iran-Contra over the head.


except Iran-Contra was resolved by mid 1987 (at least when it came to whether HW was involved in it or not) while the Email Scandal dragged on till July of election year.
Logged
tomhguy
Rookie
**
Posts: 122
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: -1.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: November 19, 2017, 05:50:20 AM »

Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.065 seconds with 13 queries.