Virginia. Maybe Colorado. I think Virginia would have been a Lean R state in this case.
But he would have done worse in PA, MI, and WI, probably enough to lose all three.
But Colorado and Virginia would have been enough.
Wisconsin would not have been a goner, as Johnson put together a slightly different coalition than Trump to win. Johnson and Rubio would have run in tandem. The same might have occurred in PA with Toomey and Rubio.
In addition mcMullin would not have run and Rubio would have gotten at least 2,000,000 of Johnson’s voters. He would have won NH. ME, MI, AND MN would gone to him.