Realistic Independent Confederate States
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Thomas
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« on: October 29, 2017, 10:32:55 PM »

What If the Confederate States won their independence what would an independent CSA look like?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2017, 10:43:09 PM »

The five states that make up the Confederacy, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi are an economic backwater that even petitioned for readmission once they technically "freed" the slaves once their cotton economy collapsed around the turn of the century, but since the United States didn't want to admit states with lots of Negroes they were rejected.

The Republic of Texas of course has managed to do well thanks to cattle and oil, tho it is has had several wars with Mexico. While those have managed to gain it lands south of the Rio Grande, its economy suffers somewhat from having to maintain a high degree of military readiness.

Louisiana alone managed to gain readmission, but that was because that gave access to the Gulf once more. They did so in 1871 after Texas seceded from the Confederacy in a dispute over the election of 1868. As a result, they decided they needed to belong to a country that would be able to protect them from Texian expansionism unlike the CSA.

Alternate history buffs wonder what might have happened had the Republicans picked Lincoln instead of Seward in 1860.  The general consensus is that Lincoln would likely have been able to persuade the Confederate States to remain and at the very least he would have avoided Seward's Folly of treating the Confederates as bluffers who would quickly return to the Union if he did nothing.

Personally, I'm glad the Confederacy remains independent.  Our flag is already too cluttered with stars.

Going from 53 to 58 would only make it worse.
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Wakie77
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2017, 11:59:56 AM »

You end up with a very fractured America which has huge waves in history.

Texas would quickly become an independent Republic.  New York City would pull out of the Union.  As time goes on various states would pull out of the bigger unions over various divides.  I gotta believe you would have an independent Mormon Utah under theocratic rule.  The quality of life for blacks in the South is even worse as some states move towards emancipation and others don't.  Technology makes owning slaves a losing proposition so you likely get all kinds of atrocities.

Westward expansion is slowed as the construction of railroads across national borders slows it down.  Inevitably you would have some wars between American states.  Women's suffrage would cause some states to break off.  WWI goes on longer but has the same outcome.  The evolution of Communism in Europe may take root in some of the North American states.

American involvement in WWII is less significant as many states stay out.  The Empire of Japan dominates the Pacific.  The Nazi's dominate Western Europe but end up locked in a brutal war of attrition with the USSR which grinds into the 1950s.

The end result can only be
1- The war grinds to a halt with a Cold War between the Soviet Union and  Nazi Europe.
OR
2 - The Soviets eventually win the war of attrition and dominate Europe and push their influence into the America's with the only major resistance coming from forces backed by the Japanese.
OR
3 - The Nazi's develop the Atom Bomb and use it to defeat the Soviets.  This means a Nazi empire throughout Europe and much of the former Soviet Union.

If you want more I can probably write a book but I doubt anyone here would really buy it.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2017, 12:20:40 PM »


Louisiana alone managed to gain readmission, but that was because that gave access to the Gulf once more. They did so in 1871 after Texas seceded from the Confederacy in a dispute over the election of 1868. As a result, they decided they needed to belong to a country that would be able to protect them from Texian expansionism unlike the CSA.


You can't be suggesting that the US would take back Louisiana without also taking back Arkansas.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2017, 08:46:08 PM »


Louisiana alone managed to gain readmission, but that was because that gave access to the Gulf once more. They did so in 1871 after Texas seceded from the Confederacy in a dispute over the election of 1868. As a result, they decided they needed to belong to a country that would be able to protect them from Texian expansionism unlike the CSA.


You can't be suggesting that the US would take back Louisiana without also taking back Arkansas.

No, I'm suggesting that the only plausible path to an independent Confederate States is that there is no Fort Sumter and only the first seven Confederate States secede. Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia only seceded after Fort Sumter, but if someone other than Lincoln is the Republican nominee in 1860, Seward's daffy idea of letting them go because they'll have to come back is likely to be tried.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2017, 02:47:02 PM »

I think an eventual war is most likely. Say, London backs the Confederacy and Germany secretly funds America. I'm not sure what France would do - maybe the republic backs the Confederacy?

I could see an earlier war breaking out, regardless, and if a Hohenzollern is on the throne of Romania, Germany, and Spain, it would certainly help raise tensions.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2017, 09:44:56 PM »

I think an eventual war is most likely.

It's extremely unlikely unless there is a war at the time of secession.  It's difficult to see how either the North or South comes to later believe there is a cause for war later if there is a peaceful secession.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2017, 09:33:33 AM »

I think an eventual war is most likely.

It's extremely unlikely unless there is a war at the time of secession.  It's difficult to see how either the North or South comes to later believe there is a cause for war later if there is a peaceful secession.

A divided America would be ripe grounds for the powers in Europe to use them as a proxy war.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2017, 10:12:11 PM »

I think an eventual war is most likely.

It's extremely unlikely unless there is a war at the time of secession.  It's difficult to see how either the North or South comes to later believe there is a cause for war later if there is a peaceful secession.

A divided America would be ripe grounds for the powers in Europe to use them as a proxy war.

Doubtful.  Britain and France are about the only countries that potentially would have both the interest and capability to involve themselves in Confederate affairs and that would come to a head only if they have a falling out and Britain is looking for a counter to French-backed Mexico. I could see Germany trying to cultivate the United States as a potential ally against the British, but  even with foreign backing, the Confederacy is no threat to the United States. At best the CSA is a power comparable to the ABC powers but with the ever present danger of servile insurrection at home.  There is too much disparity in the strength of the USA and the CSA (especially a seven-or-less State CSA) for an outside power to meaningfully meddle in their relations.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2017, 09:25:05 AM »

I think an eventual war is most likely.

It's extremely unlikely unless there is a war at the time of secession.  It's difficult to see how either the North or South comes to later believe there is a cause for war later if there is a peaceful secession.

A divided America would be ripe grounds for the powers in Europe to use them as a proxy war.

Doubtful.  Britain and France are about the only countries that potentially would have both the interest and capability to involve themselves in Confederate affairs and that would come to a head only if they have a falling out and Britain is looking for a counter to French-backed Mexico. I could see Germany trying to cultivate the United States as a potential ally against the British, but  even with foreign backing, the Confederacy is no threat to the United States. At best the CSA is a power comparable to the ABC powers but with the ever present danger of servile insurrection at home.  There is too much disparity in the strength of the USA and the CSA (especially a seven-or-less State CSA) for an outside power to meaningfully meddle in their relations.

France had major interests in Mexico. Mexico and the CSA combined are almost equal with the U. S. A., and assuredly so if Canada joins in.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2017, 01:58:28 PM »

I think an eventual war is most likely.

It's extremely unlikely unless there is a war at the time of secession.  It's difficult to see how either the North or South comes to later believe there is a cause for war later if there is a peaceful secession.

A divided America would be ripe grounds for the powers in Europe to use them as a proxy war.

Doubtful.  Britain and France are about the only countries that potentially would have both the interest and capability to involve themselves in Confederate affairs and that would come to a head only if they have a falling out and Britain is looking for a counter to French-backed Mexico. I could see Germany trying to cultivate the United States as a potential ally against the British, but  even with foreign backing, the Confederacy is no threat to the United States. At best the CSA is a power comparable to the ABC powers but with the ever present danger of servile insurrection at home.  There is too much disparity in the strength of the USA and the CSA (especially a seven-or-less State CSA) for an outside power to meaningfully meddle in their relations.

France had major interests in Mexico. Mexico and the CSA combined are almost equal with the U. S. A., and assuredly so if Canada joins in.

In population, they were almost equal, but in the ability to wage war, they certainly weren't. But more importantly, if the North lets the South go peacefully, it's difficult to see why on earth either side would want war.
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Skycraper15
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« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2017, 03:28:58 PM »

In The Present Day, a realistic CSA would still be less powerful than the union, the capital would be somewhere in Texas, and I assume the flag would be different. I assume the capital would be in Texas because it's the most powerful southern state. I think Virginia would be in dispute because its voted blue since 2008, but Richmond was the capital.
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