VA lieutenant gubernatorial election: Justin Fairfax

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Justin Fairfax obtains a much worse result than Ralph Northam, will it be due to racism?
How low must the difference between Northam's and Fairfax's results be to exclude any explanation of racism?

[TheSaint250]

Of course not.

[Donerail]

Of course not.

your blithe dismissal of racism does not, in fact, mean it does not exist.

[heatcharger]

There’s no racism in Virginia anymore. Just ignore that little thing that happened a few months ago.

[TheSaint250]

Of course not.

your blithe dismissal of racism does not, in fact, mean it does not exist.

I'm not saying that it doesn't exist, just that many have said that Fairfax is too much to the left to some Virginians and that this is why he is underperforming.  So I am simply saying that to blame it on racism is ridiculous when the ideological sway seems to be prime motive for underperforming compared to Northam.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Fairfax doesn't seem to be getting as much support from the party as Northam and Herring, so if Northam pulls through, but Fairfax falls short, it'll probably be that, rather than racism. Remember that SW VA voted overwhelmingly for EW Jackson in 2013.

[Cactus Jack]

I think Fairfax's comparative lag in the polls can mostly be put down to his being significantly to Northam's left, but a racial element can't be completely discounted.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I'm not saying that it doesn't exist, just that many have said that Fairfax is too much to the left to some Virginians and that this is why he is underperforming.  So I am simply saying that to blame it on racism is ridiculous when the ideological sway seems to be prime motive for underperforming compared to Northam.

How conservative is Jill Vogel reported to be?

[Holmes]

Depends where he underperforms.

[TheSaint250]

I'm not saying that it doesn't exist, just that many have said that Fairfax is too much to the left to some Virginians and that this is why he is underperforming.  So I am simply saying that to blame it on racism is ridiculous when the ideological sway seems to be prime motive for underperforming compared to Northam.

How conservative is Jill Vogel reported to be?

Not sure, but I see where you're going with this.  From the way Gillespie has been appealing to people based on the Confederate statues and sanctuary cities, though, I would guess that those who will vote for Gillespie will vote more for Vogel than Northam voters (many of whom seem to be moderates disaffected by Gillespie) will for Fairfax.

[SoLongAtlas]

Voted option one. People will vote based on race, sad but true, and many downstate folks hate NoVA and will vote against him just because his name is Fairfax. He is also very liberal. VA is still a moderate state. Vogel, imo, would be far worse for the state than Gillespie even, so I will be voting for Fairfax but I expect him to have a close race.

[Jeppe]

Susan Platt would've been a stronger candidate than Fairfax. Might've even outperformed Northam.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

@Bosse
What country/state does your avatar represent?

[Virginiá]

I don't really like these options. I don't want to vote #1, but I also don't think that the only reason Vogel could do better is because she is more competent. She could easily be less competent in general than Fairfax but still do better for numerous other reasons.

[heatcharger]

There’s no racism in Virginia anymore. Just ignore that little thing that happened a few months ago.

I don't think anyone disputes that. But the implication here is that there are a significant number of people willing to vote for Northam but not Fairfax because of his race, which I don't know if we can determine. Fairfax seems to be running a Phil Murphy-style bold progressive campaign which could very well turn off moderates who are voting for Northam (and possibly voted for Obama). I don't think it's fair to call them racist for not voting for someone who is to the left of his ticket-mates (and is less established in statewide races to boot, unlike Northam and Herring)

Fairfax is still closer to the center than Vogel is, which is the case with nearly every Democrat vs. Republican election ever. This is kind of besides the point though, since it'd be naive to think there aren't people who will vote for Northam since he's still a good ol' boy but not for Fairfax since he's "out-of-touch" or "not like us". Sure, the number of people who think this way is declining, but it still exists.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I don't really like these options. I don't want to vote #1, but I also don't think that the only reason Vogel could do better is because she is more competent. She could easily be less competent in general than Fairfax but still do better for numerous other reasons.

But honestly, I can't see any other reason for a much worse performance than Northam.

[Holmes]

@Bosse
What country/state does your avatar represent?

Saskatchewan

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

@Bosse
What country/state does your avatar represent?

Saskatchewan

Thanks. Nice shape.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Did EW Jackson lose because of racism?

[Heisenberg]

Did EW Jackson lose because of racism?

No. He was just seen as way too far right for Virginia, and possibly even dragged down the other Republicans, which may have even been the difference in the Attorney General race.

[Zioneer]

Did EW Jackson lose because of racism?

He lost because he was seen as a lunatic theocrat, basically.

And Northam was able to coast to victory without even trying because of that.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Fairfax is an unknown so there are more Dem-leaners who show up as undecideds and Vogel hasn't bungled his campaign the way Gillespie has.

[President Johnson]

Hard to predict. I'd say Fairfax loses very narrowly while Northam makes it.

The separate elections of governors and lieutenant governors is totally ridiculous.

[MAINEiac4434]

Vogel is a better candidate than Gillespie so I’d expect her to do better than him.

I still expect Fairfax to win. However, I’m inclined to blame racism if he loses.