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  VA-WaPo/Scher: Northam +5
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Author Topic: VA-WaPo/Scher: Northam +5  (Read 1427 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: October 31, 2017, 02:17:46 pm »

49/44. Fairfax +6, Herring +8.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2017, 02:18:21 pm »

Sounds right.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2017, 02:21:20 pm »

Yep. Now that WaPo has accepted that the race is within single digits (their previous poll was Northam +13), it is made painstakingly clear that Quinnipiac is a laughingstock of a pollster.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2017, 02:22:36 pm »

Lol, this poll screams herding, but also more realistic.

I wonder if Quinnipiac will roll with 17, haha
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2017, 02:22:46 pm »

The way they report it as "statistically insignificant" is stupid.
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2017, 02:23:11 pm »

Yep. Now that WaPo has accepted that the race is within single digits (their previous poll was Northam +13), it is made painstakingly clear that Quinnipiac is a laughingstock of a pollster.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2017, 02:28:31 pm »

Trump's approval rating is at 38%, plus the indictments this week. Not a great headwind for Gillespie here at the end.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2017, 02:40:46 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2017, 02:53:15 pm by Gass3268 »

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Gillespie can't win with those numbers in DC suburbs.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2017, 02:44:28 pm »

Poll also shows that Northam voters are more enthused than Gillespie voters.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2017, 02:45:38 pm »

Every undecided will vote Republican. Lean Gillespie.
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2017, 02:50:00 pm »

Well there's one outlier quickly closing up (was Northam + 13 last poll)
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2017, 02:50:27 pm »

Ed Gillespie has an amazing ability to crush expectations. The fact that he nearly beat Mark Warner of all people in 2014 is telling, and the national GOP has gotten much more skilled since than at stoking voter fears over MS-13. There are a lot of people who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump who'll pull the lever for Ed Gillespie.
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shua
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2017, 02:51:49 pm »

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Gillespie can't win those numbers in DC suburbs.



he can't win 27% ?  seriously?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2017, 02:52:40 pm »

Every undecided will vote Republican. Lean Gillespie.

Would still only go 49-47 as the libertarian is getting 4% (adds up to 101, probably due to rounding).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2017, 02:53:36 pm »

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Gillespie can't win those numbers in DC suburbs.



he can't win 27% ?  seriously?

*can't win with those
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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2017, 02:55:12 pm »

Ed Gillespie has an amazing ability to crush expectations. The fact that he nearly beat Mark Warner of all people in 2014 is telling, and the national GOP has gotten much more skilled since than at stoking voter fears over MS-13. There are a lot of people who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump who'll pull the lever for Ed Gillespie.

Just like he crushed expectations in the primary?
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Beet
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2017, 02:56:40 pm »

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Gillespie can't win those numbers in DC suburbs.



he can't win 27% ?  seriously?

*can't win with those

The regional numbers are a bit strange. Literally the only region Gillespie is winning is SW Va., but he's still within 5? SW Va. is a huge area (I just drove through it), but it's not that dominant in state politics. No region of Virginia has the ability to deliver the state all by itself.

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I would say that was more Corey Stewart crushing expectations. If Stewart had won the nomination, he would probably be doing just as well. Any losses in NoVa. among the establishment GOP crowd would be made up with working class whites and a bigger margin in SW.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2017, 02:58:48 pm »

If Stewart had won the nomination, he would probably be doing just as well.

LMAO

Welcome to ignore.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2017, 03:24:32 pm »

Praying that Quinnipiac is right just to piss off Wulfric.
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henster
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2017, 03:27:10 pm »

Ed Gillespie has an amazing ability to crush expectations. The fact that he nearly beat Mark Warner of all people in 2014 is telling, and the national GOP has gotten much more skilled since than at stoking voter fears over MS-13. There are a lot of people who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump who'll pull the lever for Ed Gillespie.

Gillespie almost beating Warner had nothing to do with him as a candidate it was a wave year and turnout collapsed.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2017, 03:34:43 pm »

Praying that Quinnipiac is right just to piss off Wulfric.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to throw a temper tantrum over a governor's race well away from my home state. If Quinnipiac is right, I'll be happy to call them the Virginia Gold Standard. But for now, because they are such an outlier, they are junk until proven otherwise.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2017, 05:07:47 pm »

More believable than the last one. What I don't get is how Northam only has a 5 point lead in a sample where D's outnumber R's by 8 points and where Northam has 96% of Democrats, is winning independents, and is taking more R's from Gillespie than Gillespie is taking D's. Wouldn't that suggest he should be leading by more than 5 points in this sample?

Go to question 6 and filter by party and then to question 19 where the party ID is 32D-24R-32I

Among D's (32%): Northam 96, Gillespie 3
Among R's (24%): Northam 6, Gillespie 91
Among I's (32%): Northam 48, Gillespie 45

These numbers don't add up

Their LV screen must be very R friendly. Either that or they're applying some special sauce to herd to the consensus. The regional splits also make no sense unless you're assuming massive turnout in R areas and low turnout in D areas.
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Moscow Mitch
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2017, 08:26:27 pm »

Trump's approval rating is at 38%, plus the indictments this week. Not a great headwind for Gillespie here at the end.

Sad! Will Enron Ed have to resort to flying in Lyin' Ted for last minute support?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2017, 09:28:28 pm »

Either way, one or more pollster groups is extremely wrong here.
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