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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +14
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Author Topic: NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +14  (Read 1186 times)
Polarized MT Treasurer
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« on: November 01, 2017, 01:49:23 pm »

Link.

53% Murphy (D)
39% Guadagno (R)
2% Others (I)
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2017, 01:56:28 pm »

Has Guadagno ever poll beyond 40%?
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UncleSam
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2017, 02:29:11 pm »

Monmouth seems pretty R-friendly in both major governor races this year. Obviously Murphy is safe but the margin will be interesting as regards the Maryland, Vermont, and Massachusetts races next year. Do Dems turn out beyond what pollsters see in blue states?
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2017, 03:01:41 pm »

Will this race be called before or after 8:05 PM?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2017, 03:03:39 pm »

Will this race be called before or after 8:05 PM?

I'm guessing their will be no exit polls, so I'm guessing they'll have to wait for the first set of numbers to come in.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2017, 11:20:34 pm »

Will this race be called before or after 8:05 PM?

I'm guessing their will be no exit polls, so I'm guessing they'll have to wait for the first set of numbers to come in.


Actually both New Jersey and Virginia are getting exit polls this year. I confirmed this with Edison Research.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2017, 11:32:08 pm »

Anywhere from Murphy +15 to Murphy +30 is the reasonable range of outcomes for this race imo.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2017, 11:33:05 pm »

Will this race be called before or after 8:05 PM?

I'm guessing their will be no exit polls, so I'm guessing they'll have to wait for the first set of numbers to come in.


Actually both New Jersey and Virginia are getting exit polls this year. I confirmed this with Edison Research.

Aye! So yeah, NJ should be an insta call.
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Unbeatable Titan John James
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2017, 07:12:42 am »

If Murphy over-performs his poll numbers, is there any chance the margin makes some of the NJ and suburban Philly Republican Congresscritters re-consider their decision to run for re-election?  At the very least I could see Freylinghusen retiring and Van Drew finally running and scaring LoBiondo into retirement. 
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2017, 07:23:12 am »

D +14 would be pretty much a typical New Jersey statewide result.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2017, 02:51:09 pm »

Anywhere from Murphy +15 to Murphy +30 is the reasonable range of outcomes for this race imo.

Murphy winning by 30 points is about as likely as Guadagno winning.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2017, 02:52:03 pm »

Anywhere from Murphy +15 to Murphy +30 is the reasonable range of outcomes for this race imo.

Murphy winning by 30 points is about as likely as Guadagno winning.
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Former GM 1184AZ
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2017, 09:22:12 pm »

If Murphy over-performs his poll numbers, is there any chance the margin makes some of the NJ and suburban Philly Republican Congresscritters re-consider their decision to run for re-election?  At the very least I could see Freylinghusen retiring and Van Drew finally running and scaring LoBiondo into retirement. 
Probably not this is more of an anti Christie vote and most of those incumbents are pretty entrenched for not.
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