Why did John Kerry do well in Arkansas
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  Why did John Kerry do well in Arkansas
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Author Topic: Why did John Kerry do well in Arkansas  (Read 5118 times)
Da2017
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« on: November 01, 2017, 10:57:35 PM »
« edited: November 02, 2017, 01:29:17 PM by Da2017 »

He was a poor fit for the State. He only lost 9. Even Obama could not get 40 percent.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2017, 11:54:29 AM »

it was the last hurrah for dems at the federal level in arkansas. and maybe blanche lincoln has coattails
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2018, 12:06:46 PM »

In 2004, Kerry won voters aged 65 and older 54%-46%.  In 2008, McCain won this group (which, lets keep in mind, is not really the "same group" four years later) 65%-32%.  That is a massive swing, and I would say it accounts for a lot of the overall swing.  It was probably a combination of Yellow Dog Democrats dying or staying home and a very, very significant portion of ancestral Democrats rejecting Obama (McCain won almost 30% of White Democrats in Arkansas).
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uti2
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2018, 01:08:36 PM »

In 2004, Kerry won voters aged 65 and older 54%-46%.  In 2008, McCain won this group (which, lets keep in mind, is not really the "same group" four years later) 65%-32%.  That is a massive swing, and I would say it accounts for a lot of the overall swing.  It was probably a combination of Yellow Dog Democrats dying or staying home and a very, very significant portion of ancestral Democrats rejecting Obama (McCain won almost 30% of White Democrats in Arkansas).



Clinton's '08 polling in the context of Bush's low approval ratings suggested that many Bush voters in the country were ready to back the classical Clinton coalition, but Obama implemented an alternative strategy focused on high turnout and realigned the electoral map to a reinforced Gore/Kerry map.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2018, 05:47:08 PM »

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RINO Tom
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« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2018, 11:58:53 PM »

In 2004, Kerry won voters aged 65 and older 54%-46%.  In 2008, McCain won this group (which, lets keep in mind, is not really the "same group" four years later) 65%-32%.  That is a massive swing, and I would say it accounts for a lot of the overall swing.  It was probably a combination of Yellow Dog Democrats dying or staying home and a very, very significant portion of ancestral Democrats rejecting Obama (McCain won almost 30% of White Democrats in Arkansas).



Clinton's '08 polling in the context of Bush's low approval ratings suggested that many Bush voters in the country were ready to back the classical Clinton coalition, but Obama implemented an alternative strategy focused on high turnout and realigned the electoral map to a reinforced Gore/Kerry map.

I assume you’re agreeing with me...?
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2018, 01:48:40 PM »

John Kerry did not do well in Arkansas in 2004. Here are the Democratic margins in presidential contests in Arkansas since Clinton:

2016: -26.9
2012: -23.7
2008: -19.9
2004: -9.8
2000: -5.4
1996: +16.9 (Perot took 7.9)
1992: +17.7 (Perot took 10.4)

The Democratic decline in Arkansas has been steady at the presidential level since the Clinton era. Kerry's performance was several points worse than Gore's had been.

More importantly, the same trend remained notably untrue for downballot contests until Democrats basically fall off of a cliff in 2010.

At the time that Kerry lost the state by nearly 10 points, Democrats controlled both houses of the state legislature by more than 2-1 margins. They held three out of four congressional districts. They held every statewide office except the governor's mansion, including both Senate seats, and Mike Beebe would be elected governor by double-digit margins only two years later.

And they continued to hold all of these offices comfortably for another six years! If not for Huckabee's tenure as governor, Republicans would have been completely locked out of power until 2010. Until then, the party was as marginal in Arkansas as they are California or New York today.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2020, 12:18:31 PM »

John Kerry did not do well in Arkansas in 2004. Here are the Democratic margins in presidential contests in Arkansas since Clinton:

2016: -26.9
2012: -23.7
2008: -19.9
2004: -9.8
2000: -5.4
1996: +16.9 (Perot took 7.9)
1992: +17.7 (Perot took 10.4)


The Democratic decline in Arkansas has been steady at the presidential level since the Clinton era. Kerry's performance was several points worse than Gore's had been.

More importantly, the same trend remained notably untrue for downballot contests until Democrats basically fall off of a cliff in 2010.

At the time that Kerry lost the state by nearly 10 points, Democrats controlled both houses of the state legislature by more than 2-1 margins. They held three out of four congressional districts. They held every statewide office except the governor's mansion, including both Senate seats, and Mike Beebe would be elected governor by double-digit margins only two years later.

And they continued to hold all of these offices comfortably for another six years! If not for Huckabee's tenure as governor, Republicans would have been completely locked out of power until 2010. Until then, the party was as marginal in Arkansas as they are California or New York today.

2020: -27.6.

The Democratic decline in Arkansas continued again this year. This was best exemplified by Woodruff County, which was one of the last of the old "Yellow Dog Democratic" rural counties to abandon the Party. Obama had won it 50-46% in 2012, and Clinton lost it 52-44% in 2016. This year, Trump won it 62-35%. Biden also did worse in the Black Belt counties of Arkansas (i.e. Jefferson County) than Clinton, a sign of continuing rural depopulation and also a reflection of Trump's (small) gains among black voters this year. Biden actually did receive a higher statewide percentage than Clinton, but Trump increased his percentage by more, and Biden still did worse, in terms of both margin and percentage, than Obama had in either 2008 or 2012.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2020, 12:29:16 PM »

He was white, and before Democrats became associated with Obama.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2020, 09:04:45 PM »

In 2004 on RCP LA, AR, TN and WV were listed as swing states. What a different time 2004 was.
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forrestsaver
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« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2020, 09:58:15 PM »

Picking Edwards helped, and Blanche Lincoln was on the ballot that year.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2020, 10:34:41 PM »

In 2004 on RCP LA, AR, TN and WV were listed as swing states. What a different time 2004 was.

Yes, and Virginia was downplayed as a competive state.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2021, 01:11:49 PM »

Kerry did not do well relatively in Arkansas (2004 standards)
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Samof94
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2021, 11:22:36 AM »

John Kerry did not do well in Arkansas in 2004. Here are the Democratic margins in presidential contests in Arkansas since Clinton:

2016: -26.9
2012: -23.7
2008: -19.9
2004: -9.8
2000: -5.4
1996: +16.9 (Perot took 7.9)
1992: +17.7 (Perot took 10.4)


The Democratic decline in Arkansas has been steady at the presidential level since the Clinton era. Kerry's performance was several points worse than Gore's had been.

More importantly, the same trend remained notably untrue for downballot contests until Democrats basically fall off of a cliff in 2010.

At the time that Kerry lost the state by nearly 10 points, Democrats controlled both houses of the state legislature by more than 2-1 margins. They held three out of four congressional districts. They held every statewide office except the governor's mansion, including both Senate seats, and Mike Beebe would be elected governor by double-digit margins only two years later.

And they continued to hold all of these offices comfortably for another six years! If not for Huckabee's tenure as governor, Republicans would have been completely locked out of power until 2010. Until then, the party was as marginal in Arkansas as they are California or New York today.

2020: -27.6.

The Democratic decline in Arkansas continued again this year. This was best exemplified by Woodruff County, which was one of the last of the old "Yellow Dog Democratic" rural counties to abandon the Party. Obama had won it 50-46% in 2012, and Clinton lost it 52-44% in 2016. This year, Trump won it 62-35%. Biden also did worse in the Black Belt counties of Arkansas (i.e. Jefferson County) than Clinton, a sign of continuing rural depopulation and also a reflection of Trump's (small) gains among black voters this year. Biden actually did receive a higher statewide percentage than Clinton, but Trump increased his percentage by more, and Biden still did worse, in terms of both margin and percentage, than Obama had in either 2008 or 2012.
The state has perfect demographics for the GOP. It is like West Virginia.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2021, 12:56:17 PM »

That was before OBAMAS WAR ON COAL
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