Likelyhood of these separatist movements being succesful

[Helsinkian]

The question is whether you believe they will be independent by 2040, not whether you think they should be independent.

"Independent" here means actual independence, not just a symbolic declaration which isn't recognized by anyone.

[Former President tack50]

In my opinion, Greenland and Kurdistan are almost guaranteed to become independent by 2040.

The other 2 I think will become independent will be Republica Sprska (though I think they might just join Serbia instead of becoming independent) and the Faroe Islands.

Everyone else doesn't really have a chance though some are more serious than others.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The trouble is with Greenland and the Faroe Islands is they need to be weened off the Danish grant. And Greenland politics is rather chaotic behind the scenes.

I honestly think Iraqi Kurdistan won't be independent - Barzani really blew his wad, and it will take a long time to recover. They're probably more likely to restart the Civil War.

The only country that will almost certainly be independent (IMO) is Bougainville

[TheSaint250]

Catalonia, Scotland, Kurdistan, Republika Srpska, Faroe Islands, and Greenland

[mileslunn]

My thoughts:

Catalonia: Looking more and more likely with the way the Spanish government is acting.

Scotland: Not in the immediate future but possible depending on how Brexit goes

Kurdistan: If any region is able to without being quashed militarily pretty much a guarantee.

Wales: Not likely, independence movement quite weak there, Plaid Cymru struggles to crack double digits and only competitive in five constituencies.  Also voted mostly leave unlike Scotland.

Flanders: Very possible, much like Catalonia a wealthier part of the country who doesn't like propping up the rest.  Although I doubt it will be it's own country, rather it will join the Netherlands and in turn we could see Wallonia join France thus Belgium ceasing to exist as a country.

Basque Country: Possible but less likely than Catalonia at the moment. 

Corsica: Seems unlikely right now but if France enters a crisis could be possible.

Republika Srpska: Likely and good chance it would join Serbia.

Padania:  Unlikely as much as they complain about subsidizing the rest of Italy.

Bavaria: Extremely unlikely.  Yes they are wealthier than most of Germany, mostly Catholic, and more conservative, but Germany is doing quite well so little reason to leave.

Faeroe Islands: Possible although it's small population is probably the biggest barrier.

Greenland: Would if economically feasible, but it's small population, remote location, and harsh climate are probably the biggest reasons it hasn't.

A couple not mentioned which I think should be added are Quebec, Northern Nigeria, Chechnya, Kashmir, Muslim Mindanao, Tibet, and Xinjiang province as they all have strong separatist sentiments and the first one has had two referendums, one in 1995 that almost succeeded mind you support for sovereignty in Quebec has declined dramatically so unlike in the near future.  Asides from Quebec, I think the remainder are likely if their governments become more democratic with better human rights.

[hurricanehink]

Let’s look at 40 years ago and who got independence since then, for any clues.

1) South Sudan (2013) - extended civil war ended with peace treaty and successful independence referendum in 2011
2-3) Serbia, Montenegro (2006) - the rump state of Yugoslavia was Serbia and Montenegro until 2006, when Montenegro declared independence
4) Timor-Leste (2002) - former Portuguese colony declared independence in 1975, invaded shortly thereafter by Indonesia (during whose rule 102,000 people died due to hunger/violence), and successful UN-backed referendum on status in 1999 that rejected Indonesian rule
5) Palau (1994) - entered a compact of free association with the US, having been administered by the US after World War 2
6) Eritrea (1993) - extended civil war ended with Eritrean victory, leading to successful independence referendum in 1991
7-8) Czechia, Slovakia (1993) - split of Czechoslovakia, as negotiated by leaders in the year prior
9-18) Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan (1991) - declared independence following collapse of Soviet Union
19-22) Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (1991) - declared independence from Yugoslavia
23) Namibia (1990) - administered as part of South Africa from 1915-1988, when South Africa allowed a longstanding (1968) UN plan for the transition toward independence, with the first elections in 1989.
24) Yemen (1990) - merger of former independent states South and North Yemen
25)  Brunei (1984) - after 13 years of self-governance under British protection, Brunei became fully independent
26-27) Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands (1984) - See Palau
28) St. Kitts and Nevis (1983) - granted independence after formerly being part of West Indies Associated State, former part of UK
29) Antigua and Barbuda (1981) - see above
20) Belize (1981) - long planned toward eventual independence from UK since 1961, but held up by dispute with neighboring Guatemala. After support from other nearby countries and UN, the UK parliament passed the Belize Act to enact independence
21) Zimbabwe (1980) - declared independence in 1965 from Britain, and following a 15 year civil war, the nation was recognized internationally in 1980
22) Vanuatu (1980) - gained independence from France
23-25) Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (1979), Saint Lucia (1979), Dominica (1978) - see St. Kitts and Nevis
26-28) Kiribati, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands (1978-9) - gained independence from UK

Not sure if I missed any, but here are some general notes. Most were related to the breakup of the USSR and Yugoslavia. Many were former European colonies. Others were the result of a protracted civil war.

My predictions, based on the above:

1) New Caledonia, French colony, which is due to have an independence referendum next year
2) French Polynesia, also a French colony
3) Rakhine, part of Myanmar, which has been in a state of turmoil since 1948, and has gotten more attention recently
4) Kurdistan, from parts of Syria and Iraq. Syrian Civil War has been ongoing since 2011, so future uncertain
5) West Papua, from Indonesia, due to sustained push for self-determination there since 1960/
6) Somaliland, from Somalia, due to sustained push for independence since 1990s
7) Darfur, see South Sudan
Greenland, Dutch colony that is gradually handling more of its own affairs, especially as mineral wealth fuels jobs

[Lord Halifax]

Greenland, Dutch colony that is gradually handling more of its own affairs, especially as mineral wealth fuels jobs

Self-governing part of Denmark with only one open mine and a crap economy. Far too large and thinly populated to function as an independent state.

[parochial boy]

New Caledonia won't vote for independence. The Kanaky only make up about 40% of the population these days, and the Caldoches, Asians and Wallis and Futunuans all opposed independence.

French Polynesia is even less likely. As with all the DROM-COM, there is a much bigger incentive for those countries to stay within the French umbrella than there is to leave.

As for the movements in the OP - none of them have a greater than 50% chance of leaving, which isn't to say none will, just that the odds are stacked against each of them.

[mileslunn]

To add North American perspective as no North American areas listed here are a few.

Quebec - Seems highly unlikely, support for independence is down to 30% even though it almost succeeded in 1995

Alberta - A lot of older Albertans complain about subsidizing the rest of the country, but the youngest province and most younger Albertans don't share the Western Alienation their parents do.  Also while by far the most conservative province, younger Albertans like younger Canadians elsewhere are largely progressive, its more amongst boomers where Alberta is significantly more right wing not millennials.

California - If US keeps on electing Trump like leaders, it just might happen, although not likely anytime soon.  Ironically enough it could actually still be a powerful successful country on its own as it would have the 6th largest GDP in the world and be the home of many large firms, particularly in the tech sector.

Hawaii - Asides from a small minority of indigenous Hawaiians, don't think there is much appetite for this.

Chiapas - Was an issue in the past, not sure how much today.

Puerto Rico - More likely to gain statehood than separate although like California if US continues to elect racists that could change.

While not totally secession, another possibility is Turks and Caicos Islands leave UK as an overseas territory and join Canada.  This has long been talked about, but never gone anywhere but certainly many in Canada would love to have them join.

[Vega]

The trouble is with Greenland and the Faroe Islands is they need to be weened off the Danish grant. And Greenland politics is rather chaotic behind the scenes.

I honestly think Iraqi Kurdistan won't be independent - Barzani really blew his wad, and it will take a long time to recover. They're probably more likely to restart the Civil War.

The only country that will almost certainly be independent (IMO) is Bougainville

Care to expand?

[Lord Halifax]

The only country that will almost certainly be independent (IMO) is Bougainville

Why on Earth do you think that? The independence movement seems to be dead and PNG would never let them leave anyway.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The only country that will almost certainly be independent (IMO) is Bougainville

Why on Earth do you think that? The independence movement seems to be dead and PNG would never let them leave anyway.

Err, the independence referendum scheduled to happen in 2019?

[Lechasseur]

Republika Srpska and Kurdistan most likely.

I'd say Catalonia is 50/50 as of right now (but that could change very quickly depending on the election results in December and international support or lack of for their cause, among other factors), but if Catalonia secedes sooner or later the Basque Country will too.

I don't think Greenland will get independance because they're too dependant on Danish money.

Scotland most likely won't, the 2014 referendum was a once in a generation event so I think the issue's settled in the medium term.

And I don't believe the others will look for independance either.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Scotland most likely won't, the 2014 referendum was a once in a generation event so I think the issue's settled in the medium term.

If Brexit wasn't happening, I'd agree. But since it is (and not going to go smoothly, by all accounts), I think there's a real chance of a Scottish Independence do-over.