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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  VA-Gov Suffolk Northam +4
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Author Topic: VA-Gov Suffolk Northam +4  (Read 1010 times)
swf541
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« on: November 02, 2017, 11:05:59 am »
« edited: November 02, 2017, 11:21:34 am by swf541 »

Northam 47 (+5)
Gillespie 43 (+1)
Hyra 2%

Lt Gov
Fairfax: 44% Vogel: 40%

AG
Herring: 44% Adams: 42%


Last poll from them was tied 42-42

http://www.suffolk.edu/news/74532.php#.WftCJtCnGUl

Conducted Monday and yesterday, dont see any downballot info
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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2017, 11:08:31 am »

Northamentum
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2017, 11:10:34 am »

If Suffolk has this at +4, thatís a good sign.
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swf541
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2017, 11:12:08 am »

Updated it and added Hyra's number as well.  He is down to 2% also a good sign for Northam imo
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2017, 11:12:49 am »

Northam 47 (+5)
Gillespie 43 (+1)
Hyra 2%

Last poll from them was tied 42-42

http://www.suffolk.edu/news/74532.php#.WftCJtCnGUl

Conducted Monday and yesterday, dont see any downballot info

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/926116738231660544

"Suffolk University VA poll shows Dems Fairfax (LG) and Herring (AG) slightly ahead of GOP foes with high undecided."
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2017, 11:14:35 am »

Trump's approval is better than in other polls and Kaine/McAuliffe's are worse. Not bad for Northam to have a solid lead with that type of sample.
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Arch
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2017, 11:15:55 am »

Trump's approval is better than in other polls and Kaine/McAuliffe's are worse. Not bad for Northam to have a solid lead with that type of sample.

Yep, it might be an indictments effect.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2017, 11:17:53 am »

Northam 47 (+5)
Gillespie 43 (+1)
Hyra 2%

Last poll from them was tied 42-42

http://www.suffolk.edu/news/74532.php#.WftCJtCnGUl

Conducted Monday and yesterday, dont see any downballot info

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/926116738231660544

"Suffolk University VA poll shows Dems Fairfax (LG) and Herring (AG) slightly ahead of GOP foes with high undecided."

No exact numbers?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2017, 11:18:18 am »

Trump's approval is better than in other polls and Kaine/McAuliffe's are worse. Not bad for Northam to have a solid lead with that type of sample.

Yep, it might be an indictments effect.

I think you misread what I said.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2017, 11:19:22 am »

But I was assured he was going to be lose
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2017, 11:20:41 am »

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/11_2_2017_marginals.pdf

not sure if these are the weighted numbers:

Fairfax: 44% Vogel: 40%

Herring: 44% Adams: 42%

Didn't see a HoD ballot.
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swf541
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2017, 11:21:21 am »

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/11_2_2017_marginals.pdf

not sure if these are the weighted numbers:

Fairfax: 44% Vogel: 40%

Herring: 44% Adams: 42%

Didn't see a HoD ballot.

Thanks will update the op
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Arch
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2017, 11:22:10 am »

Trump's approval is better than in other polls and Kaine/McAuliffe's are worse. Not bad for Northam to have a solid lead with that type of sample.

Yep, it might be an indictments effect.

I think you misread what I said.


I understood that this is a sample that favors an R lean. Based on that, I observed that the notable margin in even this kind of sample is indicative of a potential larger swing against Rs caused by the indictments. I think this is the only poll that has come out that surveyed Virginians after Monday.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2017, 11:24:12 am »

Trump's approval is better than in other polls and Kaine/McAuliffe's are worse. Not bad for Northam to have a solid lead with that type of sample.

Yep, it might be an indictments effect.

I think you misread what I said.


I understood that this is a sample that favors an R lean. Based on that, I observed that the notable margin in even this kind of sample is indicative of a potential larger swing against Rs caused by the indictments. I think this is the only poll that has come out that surveyed Virginians after Monday.

Got it!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2017, 02:20:57 pm »

Trendline is good, and I suspect this is the final margin, honestly
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