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  VA - Roanoke College: 47-47
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Author Topic: VA - Roanoke College: 47-47  (Read 1808 times)
reagente
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« on: November 03, 2017, 02:44:52 pm »
« edited: November 03, 2017, 02:49:21 pm by reagente »

https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_nov_2017

Governor:
Gillespie - 47%
Northam - 47%
Hyra - 3%

Lieutenant Governor:
Vogel - 45%
Fairfax - 45%

Attorney General:
Adams - 46%
Herring - 46%

Was Northam +6
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2017, 02:48:55 pm »

I give up. See ya Tuesday.
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marty
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2017, 02:50:40 pm »

Man Northam just might blow this

How on earth haven't the Dems put away this race yet?

Should be a solid 7-9 point win
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2017, 02:53:17 pm »

Oh My Gosh my prediction of a
48.72% win for Gillespie is probably ultra close to being right

48.31% for northam
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2017, 02:54:05 pm »

Itís a tight race, folks.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2017, 02:59:01 pm »

For the love of all that is holy, can we please get a decent pollster.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2017, 03:29:34 pm »

For the love of all that is holy, can we please get a decent pollster.

What makes Roanoke so terrible? And as mentioned, their last poll was significantly better for Northam, so this is pretty good evidence of #GillespieMentum
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2017, 03:46:30 pm »

For the love of all that is holy, can we please get a decent pollster.

What makes Roanoke so terrible? And as mentioned, their last poll was significantly better for Northam, so this is pretty good evidence of #GillespieMentum

They have a history of being off. They're last poll in the 2013 governors race had McAuliffe up 15 points. They're last poll in 2014 had Warner up 13 points. They were okay in 2016 but so was everyone else.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2017, 08:13:34 pm »

Is it the Latino Victory Ad that is causing this tight, deadlocked race right now?
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yeah_93
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2017, 08:18:51 pm »

GO ED!
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ThatConservativeGuy
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2017, 08:45:52 pm »

For the love of all that is holy, can we please get a decent pollster.

What makes Roanoke so terrible? And as mentioned, their last poll was significantly better for Northam, so this is pretty good evidence of #GillespieMentum

They have a history of being off. They're last poll in the 2013 governors race had McAuliffe up 15 points. They're last poll in 2014 had Warner up 13 points. They were okay in 2016 but so was everyone else.

Given that they showed Warner up 13 points in their last 2014 poll, and it's tied now, Gillespie should win this handily Wink (said half tongue-in-cheek and half hopeful).
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2017, 09:35:39 pm »

Quote
Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, age and political party.

Weighting for political party is pretty much the worse thing you can when polling because party ID is so fluid. That's what unskewed polls did in 2012.
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The jealous Ex Axelrod
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2017, 09:38:47 pm »

Ok a lot of these poll are showing ties I think they just herding at this point.
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Kempros
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2017, 07:59:06 am »

Is it the Latino Victory Ad that is causing this tight, deadlocked race right now?

I really have the feeling that might be the case.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2017, 01:20:15 pm »

For the love of all that is holy, can we please get a decent pollster.

What makes Roanoke so terrible? And as mentioned, their last poll was significantly better for Northam, so this is pretty good evidence of #GillespieMentum

that assumes any error is systematic rather than random.
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Arch
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2017, 01:25:43 pm »

Is it the Latino Victory Ad that is causing this tight, deadlocked race right now?

If all it takes is for one rogue group to send out a cheap ad to trigger all Republicans and "independents" then this country is truly doomed.
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